Meeting Social Needs in an Ageing Society

Transcription

1 Meeting Social Needs in an Ageing Society Dr Krzysztof Iszkowski DG for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities Social and demographic analysis

2 2 European population is growing, but: for how long? by how much? The Eurostat population projection of 2004 expected a decline of 5 million by The latest (2008) Eurostat projection expects an increase of 11 million people by the year The difference originates from upwardly revised assumptions on immigration In fact, the actual population in 2008 was higher than assumed in the projection 497,7 million, rather than 495 million.

3 Persons Millions 3 Impact of migration Population projections for EU27 with and without migration 550 start decline = start decline = with migration without migration

4 4 Demographic Balance (Eurostat Convergence Scenario, figures in millions) 2008 Births Deaths Migration 2060 DE FR UK IT ES PL FI EU

5 5 Ageing According to the 2008 projection, the median age will rise from 40.4 yrs in 2008 to 47.9 yrs in Immediate challenge: retiring baby boomers. Long-term perspective: the move away from population pyramid to population pillar is socially desirable, ageing is a socio-economic achievement.

6 6 100 Men 90 Age % Women ,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Per cent Old age dependency ratio in 2060: twofold increase for the EU and FI, threefold for RO Men (2008) Women (2008) Men (2060) Women (2060) Men Women Men Women Age 80 Age % % ,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Per cent Men (2008) Women (2008) Men (2060) Women (2060) 0 1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Per cent Men (2008) Women (2008) Men (2060) Women (2060)

7 7 Life expectancy, now 75.2 for men and 81.5 for women, by 2060 expected to rise to 84.5 and 89.0 respectively e (EU27,F) = e (EU27,M) = BG RO LV LT HU SK EE CZ PL DK LU MT EL CY SI PT BE NL UK DE AT IE NO FI SE ES CH IT FX 74

8 8 Already now, we can observe a new type of poverty : inequality in life expectancy by socio-economic status Difference between lowest and highest level of social status amounts to, depending on country, to 4-6 years for men and 2-4 years for women, in some MS reaching even more than 10 years Gap has been widening in Eastern Europe in past two decades, in particular for men Education more important than income Main risk factors are unhealthy life style (smoking, alcohol and obesity), inadequate access to health care and social stress due to social hardship

9 9 Demographic turning point Ageing is no longer happening at some distant point in the future From now on, population aged 60+ will grow with 2 million annually for the next 20 years Population aged will decline annually by 1 to 1.5 million Accounting for the longer life expectancy, individual increase in retirement of 2-3 years to maintain the 2:1 ratio of work:retirement New market opportunities based on both needs and purchasing power of the elderly ('silver economy')

10 10 "The demographic future of Europe - from challenge to opportunity Commission s communication COM(2006)571 Ageing presented as a positive social development. Actions proposed: 1. Promoting demographic renewal in Europe by creating conditions that allow Europeans to have the number of children they wish 2. Promoting employment growth meaning more jobs and longer working lives of better quality 3. Promoting a more productive and dynamic Europe notably by seizing the opportunities of the silver economy, and optimising skills at all ages 4. Receiving and integrating immigrants in response to labour market needs 5. Ensuring sustainable public finances to guarantee adequate social protection in the future

11 Labour force Decline in size of working-age population after 2012 Thanks to increasing employment rates, net employment growth possible up to 2020 General shortage of high skilled workers with tertiary education (in particular in CEE NMS) Considerable shortages of low-skilled labour due to retiring baby boomers low pay However, rise in employment rate of older workers due to higher educational attainment abolishment of early retirement reform of disability schemes According to a 2006 EB: preferred solutions are to switch from part time to full time, encourage more women to participate, raise birth rates; raising retirement age and extending the legal working hours not popular. 11

12 PL MT BE IT SI SK LU HU AT FR BG RO EL EU27 ES CZ NL DE LT PT IE LV CY FI UK EE DK SE % of population aged Employment rates of older workers by country Chart : Employment rates across EU Member States for older workers (people aged 55-64), 2006 Men Women Total Source: Eurostat, EU labour force survey, 2006 annual average

13 Employment rate 13 Employment rates of older workers by age Employment rate of older persons aged '50-69' in the EU27, by sex and individual year of age, 2000 and ,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0, Age Men 2000 Men 2007 Women 2000 Women 2007 Source: Eurostat, Labour Force Survey

14 14 Micro evidence of impact of ageing on productivity Micro study looking at productivity in manufacturing companies in Austria and Sweden Inverted U shape between individual productivity and age, initial rise and than drop after 50 Older workers are perhaps not as productive as prime age males, but they are certainly more productive than younger workers A young work force has high and costly turnover, an older work force has lower turnover because it is generally better matched On going industrial restructuring and regional reallocation of labour are probably more important for future productivity than age composition

15 15 Keeping older workers in paid employment Employability is a shared responsibility, much more investment in human capital is needed Only good primary education prepares for LLL LLL should be compatible with work It is not enough to review financial incentives, the often unhealthy working conditions and low levels of job satisfaction need to be addressed as well. Part-time is attractive (already in 2007, 22.2% of EU workers aged did it, vast majority would not want to work full-time) Heterogeneity increases with age so better targeted policies are needed, cf. the gap in life expectancy by socio-economic status

16 16 Caveat 1: investment in human capital needed Invest in pre-school education from the age of 2.5 Reduce early school leaving among years olds Improve access to second chance education, needed by men and young people with an ethnic background Make sure everybody has access to LLL Cap the initial education period, can have negative effect on fertility

17 17 Caveat 2: caring obligations need to be taken into account Many women in their 50ties and 60ties currently provide informal care, question is who will do this in the future increasing female employment rates changing family forms (e.g. one grandchild with four grandparents) more geographical mobility reduce informal caring potential Good news: the gender gap in LE is narrowing There is much attention for these problems in the OMC on social protection and inclusion People prefer to live by themselves and it is also cheaper for society Access to special goods and services (professional home care), and ambient living is needed to preserve autonomy

18 18 Great potential for/of older volunteers More and more people stay in good health till 80 Many provide informal care to family members, and engage in voluntary work and community services Wide differences across countries, according to cultural habits, and state of social provisions, definition problems EU-SILC says that people over 65 are more active in religious, trade union and recreational organisation. How to keep the secular hedonistic baby-boomers involved in volunteering as they age? EB says that people want to remain involved in their local communities and in society at large also after retirement

19 IE SE DE FR UK FI LU NL PT DK IT ES AT EU27 EL CY MT SI BE HU BG EE SK PL RO LT LV CZ 19 EB 2008: potential for volunteering 100 Once people have retired, would they consider participating in community work or volunteering? Q7a. Thinking of the time when you retire, would you consider? Base: respondents who had not yet retired % Yes shown by country Source: Flash Eurobarometer n 247

20 20 Proportion of volunteers in 50+ population (source: SHARE, figures in %) NL DK SE BE CH FR DE AT IT CZ ES GR PL

21 21 Conclusion: confidence but no complacency Ageing is the result of positive developments, it is not a time bomb! Luxury problem, we have more time to achieve our life goals not less, there are many arguments to be optimistic Once we overcome the crisis there is still a window of opportunity to prepare for the full impact of the ageing baby boom Most older workers are capable and interested to continue working after 60 or even 65, given the right financial incentives, and provided they have maintained their human capital and enjoy healthy and satisfying working conditions Many older people are interested to become involved in society through volunteer work, community services and the provision of informal care. What is the best way to promote this? EU can offer a coordinating framework with the Lisbon Strategy, the Open Method of Coordination, the government experts group on demographic issues, European Alliance for Families, but it is up to the Member States, Regions/Municipalities, Social Partners to act.

22 Thank you Dr Krzysztof Iszkowski DG for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities Social and demographic analysis +32 (0)