LABOUR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS IN MALTA: A LOOK BACK, AND FORWARD. April 2016 Ministry for Finance

Transcription

1 LABOUR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS IN MALTA: A LOOK BACK, AND FORWARD April 2016 Godwin Mifsud Economic Policy Department Ministry for Finance

2 Outline Review of Key Indicators The story behind the numbers Disaggregating trends in the employment rate Changing structure of the labour market Focus on Challenges Demographic changes Skills mismatch Observations

3 The Context Robust labour market performance with composition of labour market evolving in reflection of the restructuring process of the economy. Employment increased by 32,000 over decade (NSO, Labour Force Survey) Importance of understanding drivers and the changing composition of the labour force so as to plan ahead for the challenges of the next decade.

4 SE NL UK EE FI LV EU-28 EA PT CY HU PL RO ES HR LU PL SE SK BE NL CZ FR EA DK IE CY LT RO PT Review of Key Indicators 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Employment Growth in Malta outpacing the EU average EU-28 MT ranking second highest over the period Gap in the ER is closing even if challenges remain EU-28 MT

5 Review of Key Indicators Downward trend in the Unemployment Rate..ranked 4th lowest in EU in EU-28 MT 0 DE UK AT EE HU NL PL SI BG IE LV EA IT CY ES

6 Restructuring of the Maltese Economy Sectoral shifts in the economic structure (share of GVA)......leading to shifts in the sectoral composition of the labour market Arts, entertainment and recreation; other service Public administration, defence, education, Professional, scientific and technical activities; Real estate activities Arts, entertainment and recreation; other service Public administration, defence, education, Professional, scientific and technical activities; Real estate activities Financial and insurance activities Information and communication Wholesale and retail trade, transport, accomodation Financial and insurance activities Information and communication Wholesale and retail trade, transport, Construction Construction Industry Agriculture, forestry and fishing Industry (except construction) Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

7 Δ in Employment Sectoral Perspective Sectoral output growth vs Employment Nominal ULC 0.04 Arts, Financial and 0.02 Recreation insurance etc activities Δ in GVA Industry EU-28 Malta

8 The story behind the numbers

9 Developments in Employment Rate 20 Change in the Employment Rate high high medium low high medium medium low high 0 Males low Females medium low low -10

10 Developments in Employment Rate Increases in the employment rate are driven by females (+15.8 p.p. vs 1.3 p.p. for males) Increases were recorded across all age groups with the exception of males aged Strongest increase recorded for prime aged females; Increased employment by older workers adding around 2 p.p. to increase in overall employment rate.

11 Developments in Employment Rate Employment positions for persons with a low educational attainment contributed negatively to overall rate with the exception for older females; Strong demand for persons of medium\high educational attainment: Higher educated male persons of prime working-age contributing strongly and positively to employment rate Females with a medium education attainment as the key driver of developments in the female employment rate; increase in higher educated females also to be underscored

12 Changing Occupational Structure 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Low Skill Medium Skill High Skill 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Males Females

13 Changing Occupational Structure Overall rise the share of high skilled occupations over period (+3.8 p.p.), mainly at expense of lower skilled, and to a lesser extent medium skilled jobs. Different trends across gender Rise in males in high skilled jobs across age groups; increase in medium skilled jobs for older workers Strong rise in younger females in high skilled jobs; in older cohorts increase in medium skilled jobs; Decline in low skilled jobs for females less pronounced than in the case of males

14 Characteristics of the Labour Market 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Distribution between Full Time and Part Time Employment Part-time Part-time Full-time Full-time Part-time 2006 Part-time 2014 Full-time 2006 Full-time 2014 Rising share of employees in part-time employment (+5.8 p.p.) with increase noted across all age groups 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Share of Employees with a Second Job in Total Employment Total Total Males Males Females Females Marginal decline in share of employees with a second job; rise noted amongst females.

15 Characteristics of the Labour Market Declining share of involuntary part-time employment (-6.8p.p.) Involuntary Part Time as % of Total Part Time Employment Total Males Females Rising share of temporary employment (+4.0 p.p.). Strongest increase recorded amongst younger persons Temporary Employment as % of Total Total Total Males Males Females Females From 15 to 64 years From 25 to 54 years From 15 to 24 years From 55 to 64 years

16 Characteristics of the Labour Market No significant change in share of self-employed in total employment. 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Self-Employed as % of Total Employment Decrease in average actual hours worked recorded across both gender categories. Reflects also rise in share of part-timers. 0.0% Total Males Females Average Actual Hours Worked per Week Total Total Parttime Parttime Full-time Full-time Total Males Females

17 Focus on Youths Youth Activity Rate Youth Employment Rate Total Males Females Total Males Females Youth Unemployment Rate NEET rates (%) Total Males Females Total Males Females

18 Focus on Challenges

19 Demographic Factors Role of Migration Employment Rate of nationals is lower than that for migrants. Slower increase in the rate over period Significant increase in extra- EU migrants amongst females; Decline recorded amongst males. Evidence that migration may be stronger than that reported in the LFS (Grech, 2015) Employment Rate of Migrants EU-28 MS Extra EU-28 Nationals Total Total Males Males FemalesFemales

20 Age in Years Demographic Factors Ageing of the labour force According to UN, median age of population is projected to rise by around 3 years over next decade; Working age population projected to decline by around 9,400 persons over period accompanied by a rise in the OADR; Migratory flows and rising employment rates are mitigating impact of ageing over short term % 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Median Age OADR WAP (on secondary axis)

21 Rise in the at Risk-of-Poverty or Exclusion Rate for Employed Persons Total Males Females

22 Measurement of Skills Mismatch Macroeconomic skills mismatch 1 Absolute deviation of each skill group s employment rate from total employment rate with each population share of skill group serving as weights Results are presented in a continuum ranging from zero to unity with zero indicating that the employment rate of each skill group is consistent with the population share of that skill group i.e. no mismatch. 1 Following Kiss and Vandeplas (2015)

23 UK PT AT NL EE DK DE SI LV CZ RO SE FI EL CY EU-28 FR LU PL EA ES MT IT HR SK HU LT IE BG BE Relatively high level of skill mismatch 0.25 Relative Dispersion of Employment Rates by Skill Level (2014)

24 Trends from a Gender Perspective... Relative Dispersion of Employment Rates by Skill Level (15-64) Relative Dispersion of Employment Rates by Skill Level (2014) Total Males Females total male female EU MT

25 Skill Mismatch Differences by Age Age Group Age Group Total Males Females Total Males Females Age Group Females Males Total Dispersion by Age Group (2014) EU 28 MT

26 Observations Robust labour market performance with composition of labour market reflecting the restructuring process of the economy. Monitor trends in unit labour costs Strong increases in the employment rate, driven mainly by prime aged females. Shifts in educational attainment of persons in employment away from low skills. Different trends prevail across gender and age groups.

27 Observations The emergence of a more flexible labour market. Demand for further flexibility to rise further in future. Migratory flows and rising participation rate are compensating for demographic effects of ageing on the working age population. Prevention of social exclusions by strengthening the skills set of all groups in light of prevailing outcomes.

28 Observations MT has a relatively high and persistent level of skill mismatches; Skills mismatch for females is higher than that for males, even if on the decline. Mismatch for males is lowest in the EU but on the rise. Declining mismatch for persons of prime working age driven by females, as rising share of medium and high skilled skilled persons was met with a rising ER for both groups. Evidence of scope for catchup for the higher skilled segment. Rising mismatch for age group, especially females, for whom the rise in the share of medium skilled persons in the age group exceeded the rise in the ER. Rising mismatch for the age group, driven by males. Relative gain in share of medium skilled group was met with increased ER for that group, whilst the ER for high skilled increased inspite of almost no change in share of high skilled males in population

29 Observations In the context where working age population is projected to decline over next decade, the achievement of further increases in the employment rate requires a targeted approach for different groups in society. Around 6,000 persons of prime working age with medium\high educational attainment are inactive Sustain efforts to integrate in the labour market and upskill persons with low educational attainment, whether inactive or in employment. Sustain efforts to lenghten the career of older persons.

30 Thanks for Your Attention