Social Protection Performance Monitor (SPPM)

Transcription

1 Social Protection Performance Monitor (SPPM) Rudi Van Dam Seminarie SPPM/EPM 6 november 2013 Overzicht Plaats in het proces Componenten van de SPPM Monitoring van de EU-2020 target Dashboard of key social indicators Key social trends to watch and positive developments Country profiles SPPM en het social scoreboard 1

2 I. Monitoring the EU2020 social inclusion target 2

3 II. Dashboard of key social indicators: overview (1) Dimension Indicator At risk of poverty or social exclusion rate (total population) Europe 2020 At-risk-of-poverty rate (AROP) (total population) + poverty threshold (in PPS) Severe material deprivation rate (SMD) (total population) Share of population(0-59) in very low work intensity households (VLWI) Intensity of poverty risk Relative poverty risk gap rate (total population) Income inequalities Income quintile ratio S80/S20 (total population) Child poverty Dashboard of key social indicators:overview (2) Effectiveness of social protection systems Social consequences of labour market situation At risk of poverty or social exclusion rate (0-17) Impact of social transfers (excluding pensions) on poverty reduction (total population) [ At-risk-of-poverty rate for the population living in very low work intensity households (0-59) In-work at-risk-of-poverty rate (18-64) Long-term unemployment rate (active population, 15+) Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) Youth exclusion Early leavers from education and training (18-24) 3

4 Dashboard of key social indicators: overview (3) Active ageing Employment rate of older workers (55-64) Pension adequacy At risk of poverty or social exclusion rate (65+) Median relative income ratio of elderly people Aggregate replacement ratio Access to decent housing Housing cost overburden rate (total population) Share of the population with self-reported unmet need for medical care (total Health population) Healthy life years at 65 ( total population, breakdown by gender) II. Dashboard of key social indicators: gebruik en presentatie (1) Table 1. At risk of poverty or social exclusion, in %, changes and EU27 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV : change in pp change in pp : : LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK change in pp change in pp

5 II. Dashboard of key social indicators: gebruik en presentatie (2) At-risk-of-poverty rate (in %) EU27 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV : change in pp change in pp : : ,776 3,427 5,944 11,122 10,955 4,491 : 6,930 7,736 10,826 9,255 11,580 3,484 change in % change in % - At-risk-of-poverty threshold for a single person household (in pps) : -8.3 : At-risk-of-poverty rate (in %) LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK change in pp 1.4 change in pp ,690 16,195 4,190 8,359 11,326 12,035 4,873 5,722 2,159 8,512 5,280 10,600 11,102 10,114 change in % change in % At-risk-of-poverty threshold for a single person household (in pps)

6 Table 1. Severe material deprivation rate, in %, changes and EU27 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV : change in pp change in pp : : LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK change in pp change in pp Table 1. Population living in quasi-jobless households, in %, changes and EU27 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV : change in pp change in pp : : LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK change in pp change in pp

7 III. Key social trends (1): vergelijking met vorig jaar III. Key social trends (2): vergelijking met

8 IV. Country Profiles (1): key issues One page discussion of key issues identified in NSR/NHP IV. Country Profiles (2): monitoring of national target 2.a Progress towards the 2020 national target for the reduction of poverty and social exclusion 8

9 2b. Composition of the population at risk of poverty or social exclusion (2011) IV. Country Profiles (3): main social indicators At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty Very low work intensity Severe material deprivation Value of poverty threshold Impact of social transfers on poverty risk Social expenditure total population Children 0-17 Working age Elderly 65+ Total, means tested, non-means tested 9

10 IV. Country Profiles (4): long term adequacy of pensions Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) 74 75,9 1,9 Low income High income Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 42 years career: average income Low / high income 85,2 82,1-3,1 54,2 53,1-1,1 51,3 (90/0/10)* 59,2 (91/0/9)* 34,3 (87/0/13)* 52,7 (78/0/22)* 1,4 57,8 (80/0/20)* -1,4 33,34 (75/0/25)* -1,0 74,3 / 77,8 51,6 / 54,1 84,4 / 52,6 58,7 / 36,5 72,9 69,41-3,5 50,1 47,85-2,3 74,7 / 48, / ,7 77,82 1,1 54,2 55,73 1,5 86,1 / ,7 / years after retirement 67,5 70,5 3,0 46,8 47,9 1,1 Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 73,7 74,2 0,5 51,1 51,6 0,5 3 years of career break for unemployment 69 72,5 3,5 46,3 49,0 2,7 10 years out of the labour market 67,2 66,3-0,9 40,8 40,7-0, Difference EU EU Difference 44,7 37,0-7,7 Benefit ratio (Public pensions) 39,2 38,3-0,9 Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) : : : 48,0 39,1-8,9 10

11 IV. Country Profiles (5): key context macro economic information IV. Country Profiles (6):Trends in take up of selected benefits 11

12 IV. Country Profiles (6):summary of specific key social challenges and good outcomes Social policy areas Poverty and social inclusion Pensions Challenges Improve the social inclusion of specific target groups such as migrants, in particular non-eu nationals and Roma High risk of poverty for lone parents Tackle the issue of "Low-work intensity households" whose rates are above EU average rates, and keep on increasing Need to reform the retirement and preretirement system to safeguard financial sustainability over the long-term while ensuring adequacy of pensions in light of high risk of income poverty rates for the elderly Low effective retirement age bridge the gap between effective and statutory retirement age Health and long-term care Address growth of health expenditure specifically age-related health expenditure without affecting adversely the accessibility and quality of health care and long term care Effectiveness and efficiency of social protection systems Particularly good social outcomes Address high age-related expenditure Fight social fraud Some improvement in the employment rate of older workers 12

13 De SPPM in de social dimension of the EMU Employment and social indicators scoreboard Unemployment level and changes NEET-rate and unemployment rate Real gross disposable income of households At risk of poverty rate of working age population Inequalities (S80/S20 ratio) Auxiliary indicators MIP scoreboard Participation rate Long term unemployment ratio Youth unemployment rate (complemented by NEET) At risk of poverty or social exclusion rate (complemented by 3 subindicators) De SPPM en het scorebord Cf. introductie: Analytisch of communicatie instrument? Versterking of uitholling SPPM? Specifieke kwesties ivm scorebord: Timeliness Identificatie van trends (thresholds) Ondersteunen van sociale uitdagingen en spillover effects in Europees Semester? 13

14 De SPPM en auxiliary social indicators in the MIP scoreboard Uiteenlopende interpretaties van sociale indicatoren en beleidsaanbevelingen? Thank you! 14