ESF Ex-post Evaluation: Investment in Human Capital (VC/2013/1312)

Transcription

1 ESF Ex-post Evaluation: Investment in Human Capital (VC/2013/1312) Final report Volume II Overview of ESF human capital investment in the 27 Member States ICF for the European Commission September 2015 Directorate-General for [Name of the Directorate-General] [Name of the Programme/Activity] July, 2014 EUR [number] EN

2 LEGAL NOTICE This document has been prepared for the European Commission, however it reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (

3 Please quote this report as: ICF (2015) Ex-post evaluation of ESF investment into human capital, for the European Commission, Directorate- General Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion The opinions expressed are those of the Contractor only and do not represent the Commission s official position Table of Contents Key messages Introduction General policy background for the ESF investment into HC Introduction Key developments in HC during the period Key national HC policy responses during the period Overview of the ESF investment into Human Capital in the period The definition of the ESF HC investment Key objectives of the ESF HC investment Key activities of ESF HC investment in the EU-27 in Main target groups supported by ESF HC investment in the EU-27 in Analysis of linkages between the Member State policies and ESF investment into human capital Description of financial volumes, outputs and results Introduction Analysis of financial volumes Analysis of outputs Analysis of results indicators (participants, entities, products and systems) The socio-economic impact of the ESF human capital investment Overview of the key ESF achievements...79

4 Key messages Key quantitative findings: the expenditure, outputs and results at the EU 27 level (as of end 2013) 51 billion of total allocated OP EU and national funding 33 billion of certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries (actual expenditure) 63.8 % average financial implementation rate, ranging between 37% and 85 % 43 % of total ESF investment in all OPs (EU and national) can be attributed to the HC policy field 49.7 million participations have been registered between 2007 and end 2013 A significant proportion of the key target groups reached (4% of young people (15-24), 1% of the employed people and 3% of the unemployed people and 2% of long-term unemployed; 3 % of the disabled people and 1 % of the migrant population based on annual averages) At least 2.3 million entities have received the ESF support Support for nearly 420,000 qualifications / courses / training programmes / standards 21 million of results for the participants in ESF human capital investment (covering people gaining or maintaining a job, obtaining a qualification or acquiring new skills and competences), and the number is likely to increase This Volume provides an overview of the ESF human capital (HC) investment in the 27 EU Member States in the period. The contextual developments: key human capital challenges and policy responses In the period a number of positive and negative tendencies occurred in the development of HC across the EU-27. On the positive side, early school leaving (ESL) rates decreased on average, higher education attainment rates increased, the gender gap narrowed and HC expenditure on education and training and research and development increased, albeit minimally. On the negative side, youth unemployment significantly increased in the context of the deep economic recession, the employment of the low-skilled (employed people with less than primary, or primary and lower secondary education) steadily decreased and the participation in lifelong learning (LLL) fluctuated considerably. The general EU level trends however hide a significant variation at the national level, with some countries making significant leaps forward in some aspects of HC development, whereas in others the position deteriorated considerably. There were a number of relevant policy developments and reforms in the period across the Member States, indicating a period of significant policy activity in reforming the education and training systems across the EU. This included reforms to increase participation in education and training, improve the quality of education and training systems and change some education delivery mechanisms, address the particular HC needs of certain target groups and react to the challenges posed by the economic crisis. At the EU level, policy directions were provided in the framework of Lisbon strategy and EU2020 strategy, including a number of country specific recommendations relevant to the HC field. Amongst the most frequent recommendations were the calls for the Member States to develop the quality and labour market relevance of August

5 education and training systems, to increase adult participation in training, to improve competence levels and to upgrade the skills of the labour force. The nature of ESF human capital investment The ESF HC investment was versatile in its nature. Although the number of OPs varied widely by country (from 1 OP to 24 OPs), the investment in both the Human Capital and Adaptability themes was present across all MS. Generally, all countries addressed both the strategic objectives of improving the quality of education and training systems and increasing the participation in education and training. The most frequently targeted levels of education were LLL (all countries but France and Sweden), HE (all 27 with the exception of Sweden) and general education (all but Denmark and Sweden). The EU-27 Member States used a varied set of activities to implement the ESF HC OPs. The most widely undertaken activities across the EU-27 were: Individual training activities (which took place in all EU-27 MS); Career guidance and training (all EU-27 except Malta and Sweden); Development of new or improved curricula (all except Austria, Denmark and Sweden); and Capacity-building of teachers and training staff (all except Denmark and Sweden). The ESF HC investment reached a wide group of target populations. The groups more frequently targeted include: Workers (all EU-27 except UK) General education students (all EU-27 except Denmark, Luxembourg and UK) Early School Leavers (all EU-27 except Denmark and Malta) Teachers (all EU-27 except Denmark, Ireland and UK) Unemployed (all EU-27 except Austria, Bulgaria, and Lithuania). At the national level, Member States have used ESF HC investment to support a wide range of activities. Overall, ESF HC investment was most likely to be used to test and implement innovative activities in all the countries. ESF HC investment has also been widely used to provide additional funding to support activities of the education system and to improve education and training delivery systems and methods. ESF HC investment has also been used to contribute to the themes associated with EU policies and targets in the area of education and training. Overall, the vast majority of Member States used ESF HC investment to support participation in lifelong learning and improving the employability of workers. Conversely, ESF HC investment was not frequently used for early childhood education or for foreign languages. The financial volumes of the ESF human capital investment The overall financial volume assigned to the HC policy field (covering both the HC and Adaptability themes) was 51 billion of total OP EU and national funding. The total amount of certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries as of end 2013 was, at 33 billion, lower compared to the total funding. This reflected the financial progress achieved by end of The corresponding public contribution volumes reached 31 billion by end Particularly large financial volumes were assigned to the HC policy field in Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Germany, with these four Member States accounting for over 55% of total EU-27 funding. The average implementation rate of the funding assigned to the HC policy field reached 63.8%across the EU-27. The average rate however hides significant variations between the countries, from implementation rates above 80 % to 30 %. When compared to total ESF investment, across the EU-27, 43 % of the total ESF investment in all PAs can be attributed to the HC policy field. The importance of the HC policy field differed across the Member States, from above 60 % in Portugal, August

6 the Czech Republic, Denmark and Luxembourg to around 30 % in Austria, Belgium, France, Greece, Sweden and Slovakia. This reflects the different ESF investment choices made in the Member States. The analysis of financial volumes was also undertaken using the codes of expenditure commonly recorded amongst the OPs. Overall, around 17 % of all expenditure could be attributed to the Adaptability policy theme (codes 62, 63 and 64), whereas around 40 % of all expenditure could be attributed to the Human capital theme across the EU- 27 (codes 72, 73, 74). The importance of ESF HC investment was also assessed in the national context using the national expenditure on education and training. On average, across the 26 Member States (no data is available for Greece), the ESF HC investment was 1 % of the national education and training expenditure. This however varied substantially from 0.2 % in the Netherlands and Sweden to 10.4 % in Portugal. Key outputs and results of the ESF human capital investment In the ESF measures supporting the human capital development, 49.7 million participations have been registered between 2007 and end (in the priority axes and sub-priorities assigned to the human capital). The socio-economic profile of participants was: The proportion of women amongst all the participants in the HC-relevant PAs and sub-priorities was 51 % on average across the EU-27. In terms of labour market status, on average across the EU-27, 46 % of the participants were inactive (mostly in education and training), followed by 40 % employed participants and finally 11 % were unemployed participants. In relation to age, young people (15-24) formed around a third of all participants under the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the HC field. In contrast, older people (55-64) formed only around 5 % of all participants under the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the HC field. In relation to the disadvantaged groups, on average across the EU-27 around 13 % of participants in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the HC field were from a disadvantaged background. The different disadvantaged groups were almost equally distributed (all between 3-4 %). In terms of educational attainment, on average across the EU-27, nearly a half of all ESF HC investment participants had ISCED levels 1-2 attainment of primary or lower secondary education (ISCED 1 and 2). This was followed by 28 % of participants who had upper secondary education attainment (ISCED 3) and 20 % who had tertiary education (ISCED 5 and 6). Only 5 % of participants had post-secondary non-tertiary education (ISCED 4). This meant that ESF human capital investment reached across the spectrum of education attainment, but with a clear focus on people in lower educational attainment levels arguably, one of the target groups most in need of HC investment. Overall, over 2.3 million entities have received ESF support under the PAs and subpriorities assigned to the human capital policy field. This includes enterprises, educational institutions, NGOs, social partners and other organisations. More than 16,000 networks were created as a result of the ESF by end In relation to products, over 2.8 million products were created with the ESF support under the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the human capital policy field. This includes support to nearly 420,000 qualifications/courses/training programmes/standards, developed with ESF support by the end of The data recording procedures did not allow for differentiating between unique participants and individuals who participated in ESF multiple times. The figures reported are likely to reflect the number of participations - some individuals participated several times. Henceforth, the term participants is used, even though the data reflects multiple participations of the same participant. August

7 The overall number of results for the participants in ESF human capital investment (covering people gaining or maintaining a job, obtaining a qualification or acquiring new skills and competences) at end of 2013, is estimated to be 21 million 2. The results measured at the end of 2013 are likely to increase in the subsequent years. This is because participants who started prior to 2013 (and are already counted in the reported participation figures) will complete the ESF activities and are likely to achieve a number of positive results in the future. In the four Member States with relevant result indicators for entities, over 100,000 new businesses were created after the ESF activity. In the six Member States with relevant result indicators, over 190,000 businesses completed their ESF activities or adopted the intended changes in the enterprises. The proportion of businesses completing the activity averaged around 18 % in the four Member States with such indicators. In the six Member States with relevant result indicators for products, over 26,000 new and/or innovative products were created after the ESF activity. The proportion of new products created averaged around 56 % in the four Member States with such indicators. In the four Member States with relevant result indicators, nearly 70,000 successful products were created after the ESF activity. Successful products are defined in various ways, referring to products after intended changes have been implemented or the number of the intended activities completed. The proportion of successful products created averaged around 30 % in the four Member States with such indicators. Result indicators at the system level were challenging to categorise due to the lack of common result indicators across the Member States. 2 It is also possible that more than one result could be generated from a single intervention for a participant. In the absence of monitoring data on unique participants this aspect however cannot be captured. August

8 1 Introduction This is the Volume II of the final analysis for the ESF Ex-post Evaluation: Investment in Human Capital (VT/2013/092). Its aim is to provide an overview and description of the main features and achievements of the ESF HC investment across all 27 EU Member States in the period (Croatia was not covered in the ex-post evaluation). The description of ESF HC investment in the period was based on the following sources: EU level data on key education and training indicators, Analysis of the National Strategic Reference Frameworks for the period and the relevant Country Specific Recommendations (CSRs), Analysis of the latest Annual Implementation Reports (AIRs) of the ESF Operational Programmes (OPs), Analysis of the Structural Funds Common (SFC) database containing data on expenditure, outputs and results across the OPs. Volume II should be read in conjunction with other volumes in the final analysis including: Volume I providing the overall evaluation conclusions and lessons learnt, Volume III providing the analysis of key evaluation questions in the nine indepth countries, Volume IV analysing the good practices identified in the nine in-depth countries, Volume V providing an overview of ESF HC investment aimed at young people. The remainder of this Volume is structured as follows: Section 2 describes the general policy background in the period, Section 3 provides an overview of the main features of the ESF HC investment, including the objectives, activities and target groups, Section 4 analyses the financial volumes and the key achievements of outputs and results relevant to the HC area. The Volume is accompanied by the following Annexes: Annex 1: Statistical indicator data tables Annex 2: The CSRs and the overview of the NSRFs Annex 3: Financial volume information by OP Annex 4: Outputs information by OP Annex 5: Results information by OP. August

9 2 General policy background for the ESF investment into HC 2.1 Introduction This section presents the general background underpinning the implementation of ESF HC investment in the period. It first describes the key HC related developments as well as key policy challenges identified in the Country Specific Recommendations (CSRs) and the National Strategic Reference Frameworks (NSRF) in the period. Then, the key HC policy developments occurring in the Member States (MS) are described and presented. The full accompanying data set is presented in Annex 1. One of the important features of the ESF programming period was the fact that ESF planning and programming in 2007 and 2008 took place in a context of sustained economic growth and overall improvements in employment performance. However, soon after the start of the implementation phase, the financial and subsequent economic crisis hit, leading to a loss of 5 million jobs in the EU between the third quarters of 2008 and The deteriorating economic situation hit certain groups in society and in the labour market particularly hard, partly as a result of the swelling ranks of unemployed people with higher skill levels and more recent labour market experience. In particular, men and young people were particularly hard hit by the rising unemployment. Older workers and women were less affected by the crisis for women this was true particularly in the first phase of the economic downturn. This situation changed somewhat as a result of austerity policies affecting female dominated public service jobs. 2.2 Key developments in HC during the period Key HC trends in the period This section presents and analyses key HC indicators. In particular it considers initial education, higher education, continuing education as well as funding. Indicator definitions and sources are described in Table 1. Table 1. Selected key indicators for HC developments 4 Indicator Definition Source Extent of Early School leaving Early leavers from education and training refers to persons aged 18 to 24 fulfilling the following two conditions: first, the highest level of education or training attained is ISCED 0, 1, 2 or 3c short, and second, respondents declared not having received any education or training in the four weeks preceding the survey (numerator). The denominator consists of the total population of the same age group, excluding no answers to the questions "highest level of education or training attained" and "participation to education and training". Both the numerators and the denominators come from the EU Labour Force Survey Eurostat Unemployment of Young People Unemployed persons are all persons 15 to 74 years of age (16 to 74 years in ES, IT and the UK) who were not employed during the reference week, had actively sought work during the past four weeks and were ready to begin working immediately or within two weeks. Figures show the number of persons unemployed in thousands. The unemployment rate is the number of people unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. The labour force is the total number of people employed and unemployed. For the consideration of the unemployment of young people we look at those under 25 years of age. Eurostat PISA Scores The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) is a triennial international survey which aims to evaluate education systems worldwide by testing the skills and knowledge of 15-year-old students. The most recently OECD 3 ESF Expert Evaluation Network (2012). 4 As per latest available data extracted from the source on 05 January August

10 published results are from the assessment in Employment of Low Skilled HE attainment People aged between 15 and 74, employed and with less than primary, or primary and lower secondary education (ISCED levels 0 to 2). Tertiary education attainment' covers the ISCED levels 5 and 6, the first and second stage of tertiary education. This indicator covers the population over 25 years of age with tertiary education attainment. Eurostat Eurostat Participation in LLL Expenditure in E&T Expenditure in R&D Participation in lifelong learning covers that participation rate in education and training (in the last 4 weeks, by sex and age) of people aged 18 to 74 This indicator covers the total public expenditure on education for all levels of education combined, as a share of the country s GDP. The latest available data is for year This indicator covers the total expenditure on R&D, for all sectors of performance, as a share of the country s GDP. Eurostat Eurostat Eurostat Key initial education trends in the period Three indicators are considered to evaluate the initial education trends for the period: the rate of early school leaving (ESL), the unemployment rates of young people (YU), and the OECD s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) test scores. Overall, in the area of initial education, three key indicators demonstrate a mixed performance by Member States in the period analysed: ESL rates decreased on average, whereas youth unemployment significantly increased. In terms of the ESL 5, the EU-27 average rate decreased by 3 percentage points (p.p.) in the period, with a 3.3 p.p. decrease for male and 2.6 for female (see Figure 1). ESL has a clear gender dimension, with consistently more males than female affected. Gender differences have decreased slightly, and whereas in 2007 a 4.1 p.p. gap between both genders existed, this was reduced over time to 3.4 p.p. Figure 1. Early School Leaving (%) EU trend, by gender (tsdsc410) General Males Females Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. The decrease in the ESL rates was particularly significant in PT, which had a 17 p.p. decrease, halving its rate from 36.5 % to 18.9 % (for both genders combined). Relevant decreases were also registered in MT, ES, and LU and LV, all of them decreasing over 5 p.p. over the period. However, in PL, HU, FI and CZ, the ESL increased, albeit minimally and under 1 p.p. (see Figure 2). 5 Early leavers from education and training refers to persons aged 18 to 24 fulfilling the following two conditions: first, the highest level of education or training attained is ISCED 0, 1, 2 or 3c short, and second, respondents declared not having received any education or training in the four weeks preceding the survey (numerator). August

11 PL HU FI CZ RO SK SI SE BE LT BG NL DE IT FR EU (27) IE AT CY EL UK EE DK LV LU ES MT PT Notwithstanding these decreases, the extent of ESL remains high and significantly above the EU-27 average in a number of countries. UK, BG, IT, RO, PT, MT, ES have higher ESL rates than the EU average of 12 % for 2013, including around 20 % in ES, MT, PT. Figure 2. Early School Leaving period change , by country (tsdsc410) Period Change Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. As regards to Youth unemployment, the period saw a constant and steady increase for the EU-27, almost parallel to the unemployment affecting the overall working-age population (see Figure 3). A peak increase was registered in 2009, in which the population of under 25s (particularly male) suffered a more drastic rise than the total adult population. Overall, the gap between unemployment rates in the adult and young population has remained constant during these years. Figure 3. Unemployment and Youth Unemployment ( %) in the EU-27, trend, by gender (une_rt_a) Total Total (M) Total (F) Youth Youth (M) Youth (F) Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. At the national level, however, outliers and particular differences emerge. Over the period, the youth unemployment decreased only in two countries, more markedly in Germany, and less so in Malta (see Figure 4). Others such as Belgium, August

12 the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, UK increased their YU rates but remained below the EU-27 s average increase of 7.8 p.p. Finally, Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain saw dramatic rises in the youth unemployment, including especially high rises in Greece and Spain, where the crisis had a particularly negative impact on the youth unemployment rates. Figure 4. Youth Unemployment (%) in the EU trend, by country (une_rt_a) EU AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK (27) change Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. Information on performance at school by young people is provided by the OECD s PISA test scores, which measures the performance of 15 year old students in three different subjects, namely mathematics, reading and science. The main results at national level and annualised changes in performance are presented in Figure 5, Figure 6 and Figure 7. Figure 5. PISA mean scores in mathematics in the EU-27 in 2012 and annualised change in performance August

13 Figure 6. PISA mean scores in reading in the EU-27 in 2012 and annualised change in performance Figure 7. PISA mean scores in science in the EU-27 in 2012 and annualised change in performance Source: ICF analysis of OECD PISA data. Over the period studied, countries such as Bulgaria and Romania generally improved their PISA scores in all subjects, which is a significantly positive result since they consistently score in the lowest quintile of the EU-27. On the other hand, higher August

14 scorers such as FI, significantly decreased their scores. PL, DE and EE obtained very positive results; all are high scorers and all considerably improved their results Key higher education trends in the period Trends and highlights in higher education are analysed by studying the population over 25 years of age with tertiary education attainment, namely ISCED levels 5 and 6; the first and second stage of tertiary education. Overall progress was uneven during this time, and even if on average higher education attainment rates increased, and the gender gap narrowed, improvements were unequally achieved in different Member States. Higher education attainment rates registered a constant increase in the period, gaining 4.4 p.p. for the EU-27, increasing from 20 % to 25 % on average. The gender gap has also narrowed steadily, and whereas it showed a 2.3 p.p. higher attainment for men in 2007, the difference was only 0.5 p.p. in The trends are presented in Figure 8. Figure 8. Higher education (%) trends in the EU , by gender (edat_lfse_07) Total Male Female Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. However, increases were quite uneven among the EU-27 countries (see Figure 9). The largest increase took place in LU, were the higher education attainment rate increased 13.5 p.p. over the period, from its already relative high rates of attainment. On the other hand, LV and PL both increased their rates over 5 p.p. (8.5 p.p. and 6.1 p.p. respectively), yet starting from significantly lower levels of 21 % and 17 %. August

15 IT RO PT MT SK CZ AT HU EL PL BG SI EU (27) DE FR ES LV NL LT BE DK CY SE FI IE LU EE UK Figure 9. Higher education (%) trends in the EU , by country (edat_lfse_07) Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. The smallest increase for the period took place in NL, were higher education attainment is already relatively high among the population over 25 years old. The country increased 1.9 p.p. from its 2007 levels of 28 %. Over the period, IT and RO consistently recorded the lowest levels of HE attainment for the group but also registered marginal increases over this time Key continuing education trends in the period Continuing education trends are analysed through the data recorded on two indicators of participation in lifelong learning (LLL) and the employment of the low skilled. Notwithstanding their differences, participation in LLL fluctuated considerably over the time for the EU-27 and conclusions are mixed, also when considered at a country level. The employment of the low-skilled (employed people with less than primary, or primary and lower secondary education) steadily decreased. Participation in LLL in the EU-27 saw an overall but not constant increase for the period (see Figure 10). Throughout this time, female participation rates were constantly higher than men s, and that relationship remained constant over the time studied. The total increase for the period was 1 p.p. for both groups. Figure 10. Participation in LLL (%) trends in the EU , by gender (trng_lfs_01) Total Men Female Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. August

16 PL UK SI HU SK CY LV RO IE IT LT EL DE BE BG NL ES FI EU AT MT DK EE CZ PT LU SE FR A very even distribution of rates is also found between these countries, meaning that the EU-27 period change was a 1pp increase (see Figure 11). A third of the countries recorded reductions over this time, a third of the countries increases of over 1pp, and the remaining third increases below 1pp. Remarkable is the position in PT, LU, SE and FR which achieved significant increases of over 5pp over this time. From the countries recording reductions over this period PL, UK, SI consistently remained above the EU- 27 average. Figure 11. Participation in LLL (%) trends in the EU , by country (trng_lfs_01) Period change Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. The employment rates for the low-skilled in the EU-27 registered a consistent and steady decrease over the period, with male rates always higher than female rates (see Figure 12). For this indicator, however, the gender gap slightly closed over this time, starting at 19pp in 2007 and ending at 15pp in Overall, the decrease for the EU- 27 in the employment rates of the low-skilled was 4.4 pp, from an initial 41.1% to final 36.7%. Figure 12. Employment (%) of the low skilled in the EU , by gender (lfsa_ergaed) Total Male Female Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. However, the analysis by country shows stark differences among Member States in the EU-27 (see Figure 13). The employment of the low skilled decreased by over 5 p.p. in six countries (IE, ES, UK, EL, PT and CY), this group comprising countries suffering from both high unemployment and high early school leaving, presenting a particularly serious scenario. August

17 IE ES UK EL PT CY DK SI LT LV FI LU SE EU (27) NL FR IT AT BE PL CZ BG MT RO HU SK EE DE Figure 13. Employment (%) of the low skilled in the EU , by country (lfsa_ergaed) Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. Only in five countries (RO, HU, SK, EE and DE) did the employment rates of the low skilled increase, although these increases were also varied, ranging from a 0.6pp in RO to 8 pp in DE. SK registered an increase of 1pp over the period from its very low initial levels (12% in 2007) Key HC funding trends in the period 6 During the period of interest both aspects of the HC expenditure increased for the EU- 27 group, albeit minimally: a 0.32 p.p. increase was noted in Education & Training (E&T) and a 0.24 p.p. in Research & Development (R&D). Expenditure in E&T remained at around 5 % of GDP and expenditure in R&D at around 2 %. Differences between countries where slightly more marked in terms of the expenditure in E&T (with differences involving RO decreasing 1.18 p.p. and MT increasing 1.78 p.p.) - compared to differences in R&D (ranging from LU and SI, registering a 0.49 p.p. decrease and a 1.17 p.p. increase respectively). This is presented in greater detail in Figures 14 and Funding trends for the EU-27 presented below reflect data for education and training until 2011, the latest year available. As per Eurostat s last update ( ), data extracted on August

18 Figure 14. Expenditure on education and training (% GDP) trends in the EU , total change over time (educ_fiabs) RO HU LV BG IT PL FR PT SE EU SK EE CZ AT ES DE SI LT BE NL UK FI CY DK IE MT (27) Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. Figure 15. Expenditure on R&D (% GDP) trends in the EU , total change over time (rd_e_gerdtot) LU RO UK SE FI ES LV CY IT LT EL FR BG EU PT NL MT PL AT SK BE HU DE DK CZ EE (28) SI Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. A national level analysis of these expenditure indicators reveals a pattern, particularly for education and training expenditure. Almost all countries (except RO, HU and MT) increased their expenditure before 2009, affected by the positive economic climate and the political directions to invest more in education and training. However, they then registered their maximum expenditure rates in 2009, and subsequently decreased expenditures, affected by the public budget constraints in the economic crisis context (exceptions to this include CZ, UK, MT and DK). There is also a consistent pattern over this time in terms of which Member States are at the extremes of the expenditure distribution for E&T investment. BG, IT, SK and ES were consistently among the lowest investors, whereas SE, BE, FI, CY and DK remained in the top 10, for every year of the period (see Figure 16). August

19 RO CY LV BG EL SK MT PL LT LU ES IT PT HU UK EE CZ NL EU (28) FR BE SI AT DE DK SE FI IE Figure 16. Expenditure on E&T trends in the EU , total change over time (educ_fiabs) RO BG SK IT CZ HU ES PL LV DE EE LT EU PT FR SI AT NL UK IE BE FI SE CY MT DK (27) Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data. A more consistent evolution was reflected in the national analysis of R&D expenditure, where in general Member States recorded their lowest levels in the beginning of the period (see Figure 17). Very few countries did not record their highest expenditure in Those that did include RO and LU (which actually decreased their expenditure from 2007), SE and FI (the biggest investors in R&D and only cut it by less than 0.05 p.p. over this time), and ES and UK (which performed as outliers, peaking in mid-period in 2009). Positions of the MS which were top and bottom in terms of expenditure were also more consistent for R&D trends. SE, FI, FR, AT, BE, DE, DK were seven of the 10 Member States with the largest expenditures for every year recorded. Similarly, RO, LV, CY, LT, EL, BG, MT, PL and SK were nine of the 10 Member States with the smallest R&D budgets. Figure 17. Expenditure on R&D trends in the EU , total change over time (rd_e_gerdtot) Source: ICF analysis of Eurostat data Key HC challenges articulated in the period This statistical overview of key HC developments and the remaining challenges to be addressed were echoed in the key HC challenges within the Country Specific 7 Missing data for EL and LU 8 Missing data for EL and LU August

20 Recommendations (CSRs) issued by the European Commission to the Member States as well as the analysis articulated in the National Strategic Reference Frameworks (NSRF) in the period. The full text of the CSRs and the overview of the NSRFs is presented in Annex 2. In the period, a number of Country Specific Recommendations 9 addressed to the Member States were formulated. Amongst the CSRs, a variety of HC challenges have been identified. A horizontal analysis of key trends in the HC challenges identified across the Member States is presented here as an overview. The most frequently identified HC challenge in the CSRs was the call for the Member States to develop the quality and labour market relevance of their education and training systems so that skills and education results better match labour market needs (BG, CZ, CY, EE, EL, FI, FR, HU, IT, LT, LV, LU, MT, PL, PT, RO, ES, SI, SK, SE, UK). Furthermore, CSRs also frequently identified the need to increase adult participation in training to improve competency levels and upgrade the skills of the labour force (AT, BE, CY, EL, HU, IT, LT, MT, PL, PT, RO, ES, SI, UK). It was also recommended that a number of countries develop and implement a comprehensive lifelong learning strategy and system (AT, EE, EL, FR, IT, LT, LV, LU, PL). Reforms of particular education and training systems were also called for in several Member States. For example, several CSRs asked for an increase in VET quality and availability (CY, DE, DK, FR, IT, LT, LV, MT, PL, PT, RO, ES, SI, UK) and for reform of HE (BG, CZ, HU, IT, LV, MT, PL, SE). In a number of countries, recommendations were made to encourage cooperation between educational institutions and employers (BG, CZ, EE, LV, PL, SK). Finally, a recurring theme was the need to improve education conditions and access for particular groups, including: Disadvantaged youth (AT, BG, FI, SK) and overall youth (CY, DE, EE, EL, FI, FR, IT, LU, ES, SE) Older people (BG, CZ, EE, FI, FR, LT, LU, NL, PL, SI, SK) Low skilled (AT, BE, CY, CZ, DE, EE, HU, IT, LU, PL, PT, UK) Migrants (AT, DE, DK, FR, FI, LU, SE) Early school leavers (AT, BG, DK, ES, HU, LV, LU, MT, RO, ES, UK). 9 Council Recommendation (EC) No 741/2004 of 14 October 2004 on the implementation of Member States' employment policies [Official Journal L 326 of ] nt_policies/c11320_en.htm Council Recommendation 2007/209/EC of 27 March 2007 on the 2007 update of the broad guidelines for the economic policies of the Member States and the Community and on the implementation of Member States' employment policies [Official Journal L 92 of ], available at Council Recommendation 2008/399/EC of 14 May 2008 on the 2008 update of the broad guidelines for the economic policies of the Member States and the Community and on the implementation of Member States' employment policies, available at Council Recommendation 2009/531/EC of 25 June 2009 on the 2009 update of the broad guidelines for the economic policies of the Member States and the Community and on the implementation of Member States employment policies [OL L 183 of ], available at Country-specific recommendations Country-specific recommendations Country-specific recommendations August

21 In contrast, the CSRs identified fewer challenges specific to the Adaptability policy theme. Recommendations included the need for a better anticipation of restructuring (BE, FR, PT, PL), development of SMEs and entrepreneurship skills (DE, LU, PL) and the need for better working conditions including health and safety (HU, SE). Similarly, in the period in the National Strategic Reference Frameworks, a great variety of HC challenges were identified in the analysis, reflecting the particular circumstances of the countries and regions. A horizontal analysis of key trends identified in the HC challenges across the Member States is presented here as an overview. One of the most frequently identified challenges was the lack of specific types of skills, such as skills and human capital to support R&D development (AT, BE, HU, LV, LT, LU, PT, SE) or the lack of entrepreneurship skills (FI, DE Convergence regions, LU, PT, UK Scotland). Accompanying challenges were the need to address the existing mismatches between the currently held qualifications and skills of the labour force and labour market needs (BG, DE Convergence regions, LV, LT, LU) and the low qualification levels within the labour force (PT, UK). Tackling the low LLL participation was also an important area of challenge (BG, DE, HU, DE Competitiveness regions, LT, PT, UK Scotland) as well as the need to address the unfavourable demographic tendencies such as ageing (BG, FR, DE, LT, ES, SE) or out-migration (BG, DE Convergence regions, LT, UK Scotland). A second group of common challenges identified in the NSRFs related to meeting the needs of certain target groups, including the need to tackle early school leaving (BE, BG, FI, FR, LU, ES, UK), the insufficient number of HE graduates (AT, LV), promote/sustain employability of the unemployed (HU, LT, PT, ES) and the need to develop the HC of disadvantaged groups to facilitate their labour market integration (AT, BE, LV, ES). A final common area of HC challenges was identified in relation to the issues of improving the education and training systems, including tackling the unsatisfactory quality of the education systems (BG, DE Convergence regions, HU, LV, UK Scotland) and the need to improve the responsiveness of education system to changing needs (FI, FR, HU, LV, LT). 2.3 Key national HC policy responses during the period There were a number of relevant policy developments and reforms in the period across the Member States, indicating a period of significant policy activity in reforming the education and training systems across the EU. The key policy developments and reforms are analysed by: levels of education; objectives; target groups; changes to delivery mechanisms; and developments as a reaction to the economic crisis Key national policy developments at the different levels of education and training systems In terms of the cross-cutting policy developments, a key development has been the development of the National Qualification Frameworks across the Member States, intended to increase the transparency and comparability between the qualifications across the education and training systems. A number of the Member States have also developed their lifelong learning strategies and/or adopted new education system legislation, intended to improve education and training across all stages of learning cycle (AT, BG, CZ, CY, EE, EL, FR, IT, LT, LU, MT, PL, RO, SE, SK). In the general education area, a number of important policy initiatives have occurred: August

22 Changes to the curriculum (BE, CY, CZ, FR, IT, LV, LT, LU, PL, PT, SK, SI, ES, UK) Reforms to the structure of school systems (AT, DK, DE, EL, HU, IT, LT, LU, UK) Strengthening of teacher education (AT, BE, BG, CY, CZ, FI, NL, PL, PT, SK, SI, SE) Reforms to increase the use of ICT in schools (BE, BG, CY, CZ, DK, FR, LU, NL, RO, SI, SE, UK) Adoption of formal strategies and/or actions to tackle early school leaving (AT, BE Flanders, BG, FR, HU, LV, MT, NL, PT, RO, ES) Measures to improve inclusive education (EE, FI, DE, IE, LU) Introduction of new quality standards and general quality improvements (AT, DK, EE, DE) In the sector of initial VET, comparatively fewer reforms were identified in the period. These included a range of measures to improve the quality of VET (AT, CZ, FI, FR, DE, EL, HU, UK); reforms to the systems of apprenticeships (the introduction of modular apprenticeships in AT, the introduction of new apprenticeship systems in CY, LT, MT) and measures to increase the number of VET places (BE, DK, DE, NL, PT, RO). In the area of higher education, a wide range of reforms occurred in the period, with key strands as follows: Changes to the funding regimes (BE, EL, HU, SE, UK) as well as measures to increase funding to HE (AT, DK, DE) Introducing / changing performance measurement criteria (BE, BG, CZ, FR, IT, LV, NL) Measures to improve the flexibility of HE delivery (AT, BE Flanders, DK, IE, SK) Widening participation to under-represented groups (BE, DE, IE, SK, UK) Internationalisation of universities (FI, LV, ES, SK) Changes to curricula (BG, FR, LT, PL) Increasing the financial support to access HE (EE, DE, LU, MT) A number of other types of HE sector changes occurred in fewer Member States. Measures to increase the number of STEM graduates were adopted in BE Flanders and NL, links with businesses were promoted in CY and PT, career advice and employment support to graduates in CY and RO and the use of ICT in HE strengthened in EE and FR. In the continuous VET and adult learning (LLL) area, the most widespread policy development was the various types of measures to increase the quality of VET (CZ, EE, EL, HU, IE, LV, NL, MT, PL, RO, SI, ES). Another widespread reform was the introduction of new institutional structures in VET (CY, CZ, DK, EL, IE, PT, ES, and SE). Other reforms included: Developments to improve cooperation with employers (CY, CZ, SK, UK) Improved guidance and counselling services (BG, CY, CZ) Changes to collecting and analysing labour market intelligence to inform the delivery of VET (BE Flanders, CZ, LV, RO) Reforms to increase the use of ICT in VET (AT, SK) Measures to improve the participation of immigrants (FI, DE) Increased funding to the VET (BG, HU). In the area of non-formal and informal learning, comparatively fewer reforms took place in the period. The systems and structures available to certify the skills acquired through non-formal and informal learning were reformed in IT, LV and SI. In Bulgaria, a pilot project of the National System for Validation of Non-formal and Informal Learning was implemented. In Estonia, a non-formal education programme for training of adults in Training Centres ( ) (ESF funded) was implemented. August

23 Key national policy developments by strategic policy objectives Overall, this evaluation distinguished between the two strategic HC policy objectives of improving the quality of education and training and increasing the participation across the system. To some extent, the two strategic objectives are overlapping and strict categorisations of the policy reforms using this differentiation can be misleading (e.g. measures to improve the quality can also be expected to attract more learners). Bearing this qualification in mind, key reforms in the Member States have been classified as pertaining to quality improvements or increases in participation. In relation to the policy objective of improving the quality of education and training systems, the key reform strands included: Adoption of the national qualifications frameworks (AT, BE, CY, CZ, DE, EL, HU, IE, IT, LV, LU, MT, NL, SK, SI, ES) Changes to the national curriculum and teaching of specific subjects (AT, CY, CZ, EE, FI, FR, EL, HU, IT, LV, LT, LU, MT, RO, SK, UK) Measures targeting the improved quality of VET (AT, BE, BG, EE, EL, HU, IE, LV, LT, NL, PT, RO, SK, SI, ES, UK) and the quality of HE (BG, CZ, DK, EE, FI, LT, NL, PT, RO, SK, SI, ES) Increased use of ICT in education (BG, CY, CZ, DK, FI, FR, EL, IT, NL, RO, SK, SI, ES) Developments to improve the monitoring and evaluation of the education system (BE) and changes to national testing systems (CZ, DK, SK) Reforms to improve the skills forecasting and anticipation systems to ensure the labour market relevance of education and training (BE, BG, IT) Measures to improve the links between the education institutions and employers (CY, DE, and IE). In relation to the policy objective of increasing participation in the education and training systems, the key reform strands included: Adoption of lifelong learning strategies (AT, BG, CY, CZ, FR, EL, IE, LT, MT, PL, ES) Increasing participation in HE, also for under-represented groups (AT, DK, EE, DE, IE, MT, UK) Increasing participation in VET (AT, BE, CY, DK, EE, FI, FR, DE, EL, IT, LT) Improvements to the flexibility of learning pathways (BE, FI, FR, PL, SE) Measures to improve the recognition of skills and experience as a pathway to increased learning (BG, CZ, EE, IT) Measures supporting the participation of adult learners in LLL (BG, EE, HU) Key national policy developments by target groups Reforms discussed above already provide an indication of the variety of the target groups supported in the period. In addition, the following key target groups can be identified at the focus of the key reforms. Young people have been a key target group in a sense that all reforms aimed the initial education and training are expected to ultimately benefit the young learners. Reforms focussing on the young people as direct recipients were also implemented, including training (or similar type of measures) guarantees in AT, FI, FR and other types of measures targeting young people in BG, DE, HU, LU, NL, SK and the UK. Children participating in early school education was also a target of several reforms in LT, MT, PL, SI and the UK. Another key group targeted by the reforms were the early school leavers (whose return to the education system is also relevant for the strategic objective of increasing participation). Reforms and measures aimed at early school leavers were implemented in AT, BE, BG, CZ, FI, FR, EL, HU, IE, IT, LV, MT, PT, RO and SK. August

24 Finally, reforms of teacher education have been undertaken in a number of Member States (improved teacher education is also relevant for the strategic objective of improving the quality). This includes AT, BE, BG, CY, CZ, IE, IT, NL, PL, PT, SK, ES, SE and the UK Key reforms to the delivery mechanisms A number of reforms also occurred in relation to the mechanisms and systems of the delivery of the education and training. Changes to the organisational set-up and forms of learning in general education were introduced in AT, BG, DE, EL. New organisational entities and forms of initial VET appeared in AT, BE, CY, CZ, DK, IT, PT. Organisational changes to continuing VET and adult learning were introduced in DK, EE, IE, IT, PT. Finally, changes to the HE funding and governance mechanisms occurred in BE, EE, FR, EL, HU, IT, LT, PL and the UK Reactions to the economic crisis In the majority of the Member States, the reforms and measures introduced (as described above) did not result from the reactions to the economic crisis. However, several exceptions to this general trend included: In Bulgaria, as a specific reaction to the economic crisis, the cuts implemented have affected education and training at all levels and of all types. In Cyprus, the Economic Adjustment Programme encompassed structural reforms related to public service restructuring, namely a scaled decrease of compensations, limited measures specific to the educational system as of 2013 (e.g. a reduction of the number of teachers seconded to the Ministry of Education, elimination of the mentoring component for in-service training, reduction of the cost of afternoon and evening programmes) as well as adjustment of educational allowances from The Greek education and training sector was adversely affected by decreasing public spending and significant budgetary cuts. The need to consolidate public finances has led to reductions in the recruitment of teachers and in teacher salaries, although the profession remains relatively attractive. In Spain, the investment in education has suffered from significant cuts in the context of the economic crisis and fiscal consolidation policies. The expenditure on education and training of the central government as a share of GDP decreased from 5.1 % in 2009 to 4.7 % in With the aim of reducing public expenditure in education, the Royal Decree Law on urgent measures to rationalise public expenditure in education was adopted in This Law contained measures such as the increase in the number of hours worked per teacher, increasing university fees to bring them closer to real cost and adjusting the offer of upper secondary education and university bachelor degrees to real demand. In the UK, some of the key reforms were introduced as a specific reaction to the economic crisis. For instance, the measures directed to young people from deprived backgrounds was mainly implemented due to the effects the crisis was producing in this segment of the population. August

25 3 Overview of the ESF investment into Human Capital in the period This section summarises the main features of ESF HC investment in the ESF Operational Programmes (OPs) implemented in the 27 Member States through analysing the following aspects: How the ESF HC investment was reflected in the structure of OPs; Which were the key objectives in the area of HC; Which were the key activities supported by ESF HC; Which were the specific groups targeted. 3.1 The definition of the ESF HC investment This ex-post evaluation covers all non-technical assistance (TA) OPs across all EU-27 Member States, with relevance for either investing in human capital or increasing the adaptability of workers, enterprises and entrepreneurs 10. Hence, non TA OPs without Human Capital or Adaptability relevance were not considered in this evaluation. A more detailed definition is provided in Box 1: Definition of Human Capital and Adaptability fields as per ESF Regulation 1081/2006 below. Box 1: Definition of Human Capital and Adaptability fields as per ESF Regulation 1081/2006 Human capital covers a wide range of activities, including: The design, introduction and implementation of reforms in education and training systems in order to develop employability, the improvement of the labour market relevance of initial and vocational education and training and the continual updating of the skills of training personnel with a view to innovation and a knowledge-based economy; Increased participation in education and training throughout the lifecycle, including through actions aiming to achieve a reduction in early school leaving and in gender-based segregation of subjects and increased access to and quality of initial, vocational and tertiary education and training; The development of human potential in research and innovation, notably through post-graduate studies and the training of researchers; Networking activities between higher education institutions, research and technological centres and enterprises. Adaptability covers a wide range of activities, including: Improving the anticipation and positive management of economic change; Promoting innovative and more productive forms of work; Lifelong learning and increased investment in human resources by enterprises, especially SMEs, and workers, through the development and implementation of systems and strategies, including apprenticeships, which ensure improved access to training by, in particular, low-skilled and older workers; The development of qualifications and competences, the dissemination of information and communication technologies, e-learning, eco-friendly technologies and management skills; The promotion of entrepreneurship and innovation and business start-ups. 10 The term "policy field" was introduced by the ESF Expert Evaluation Network reports. Policy fields reflect the ESF priorities according to the Article 3(1) of the ESF Regulation (No 1081/2006). Altogether six policy fields were defined: 1) Increasing adaptability of workers, enterprises and entrepreneurs (corresponds to ESF priority according to the Article 3(1)(a) of the ESF Regulation); 2) Enhancing access to employment (corresponds to ESF priority according to the Article 3(1)(b) of the ESF Regulation); 3) Reinforcing social inclusion (corresponds to ESF priority according to the Article 3(1)(c) of the ESF Regulation); 4) Enhancing human capital (corresponds to two ESF priorities as listed under Article 3(1)(d) and Article 3(2)(a), where the ESF priority under the latter Article is relevant only for Convergence objective); 5) Promoting partnerships (corresponds to ESF priority according to the Article 3(1)(e) of the ESF Regulation); 6) Strengthening administrative capacity (corresponds to ESF priority according to the Article 3(2)(a) of the ESF Regulation, relevant only for Convergence objective). August

26 The term Human Capital (HC) is used inclusively, and if information is referred to these two policy fields altogether, the term "human capital (HC) theme" is used, since both policy fields are relevant to human capital development across the various stages of education cycles. Using this definition, the 117 ESF OPs were reviewed and the relevant Priority Axes and sub-priorities identified in each of the relevant OPs. A detailed table with a list of all Priority Axes (or sub-priority axes) relevant for HC in each Member State is provided in Annex 6 to this report. Although the number of OPs varied widely by country (from 1 OP to 24 OPs), investment in both Human Capital and Adaptability themes was present across all Member States (see Table 2). Only exceptionally did countries not address one of the priorities (either HC or Adaptability) - CY, DK, IE and SK did not specifically address the Adaptability priority and SK and DK concentrated the ESF investment only on the HC priority. In turn, all EU-27 Member States had OPs relevant to HC. Every other Member State (namely AT, BG, CZ, DE, EE, FI, FR, HU, IT, LT, LV, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, and the UK) focused on both the HC and Adaptability policy fields. Table 2. Overview of the ESF HC Human Capital and/or Adaptability Policy fields across the EU-27 in the MS Human Capital Adaptability AT x x BE x x BG x x CY x CZ x x DE x x DK x EE x x EL x x ES 11 x x FI x x FR x x HU x x IE x IT x x LT x x LU x x LV x x MT x NL x x PL x x PT x x 11 Additionally, ES implemented one OP with multiple objectives (ESF operational programme for Adaptability). August

27 RO x x SE x x SI x x SK x UK x x Source: ICF analysis of AIRs Key objectives of the ESF HC investment Two key strategic objectives were addressed with ESF HC investment over this period: Improving the quality of education and training systems; and Increasing the participation in the education and training. Generally, all countries addressed both of these strategic objectives. Exceptions include EE, NL, where the focus was centred only on increasing participation, and SE, where the goal was equipping the people in employment with skills to combat discrimination and promote equal opportunities. A closer analysis of other strategic objectives, along with recurrent specific objectives across Member States and OPs. These include: Increasing the adaptability and competitiveness of employees and businesses; Improving labour market (policies, partnerships); Encouraging the implementation of health and safety measures at work; Promoting entrepreneurship and self-employment; Reducing Early School Leaving (ESL); Increasing Lifelong Learning (LLL); Fostering the use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs); Enhancing Innovation and Research and Development (R&D); Increasing qualifications; and Improving equality in the labour market. In terms of the levels of education covered, the pre-primary education level was the most rarely targeted education level (only 10 OPs in BG, CZ, ES, HU, IT, MT, PL, PL, RO and SK did so). On the other hand, the most frequently targeted levels of education were LLL (all countries but FR and SE), HE (all 27 with the exception of SE) and general education (all but DK and SE). 3.3 Key activities of ESF HC investment in the EU-27 in The EU-27 Member States used a varied set of activities to implement the ESF HC OPs, including: Individual training activities Capacity-building of teachers Employer training and financial and training staff support Work-based learning Career guidance Development of quality Out of school activities assurance measures of E&T Prevention of ESL Recognition of prior learning Individual financial incentives Support to networks and support Innovative and more productive Job opportunities and forms of work internships Health and safety at work Development of new or improved curricula Outplacement and restructuring support In countries such as DE, ES, and IT the ESF OPs implemented all these types of activities, which is consistent with the large number of OPs in those particular countries (see Table 3). However, in PL (with one OP) also all types of activities were August

28 MS Individual training activities Employer training / financial support Career guidance Out of school activities Prevention of ESL Individual financial incentives and support Job opportunities and internships New / improved curricula Capacity-building of teachers and training staff Work-based learning Quality assurance measures of E&T Recognition of prior learning Support to networks Innovative forms of work Health and safety at work Outplacement / restructuring implemented. The rest of the countries implemented at least half of the activities in each country. An outlier in this trend is SE, where only individual training activities and those related to innovative and more productive forms of work took place. Table 3. Overview of the ESF HC activities across the EU-27 in the period AT x x x x x x x x BE x x x x x x x x x x BG x x x x x x x x x x x x CY x x x x x x x x x CZ x x x x x x x x x x x x x x DE x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x DK x x x x x x x x EE x x x x x x x x x x x x x EL x x x x x x x x x x x x x ES x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x FI x x x x x x x x x x x x FR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x HU x x x x x x x x x x x x x IE x x x x x x x IT x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x LT x x x x x x x x LU x x x x x x x x x x x LV x x x x x x x x x x x x MT x x x x x x x x x x NL x x x x x x x PL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x PT x x x x x x x x x RO x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x SE x x SI x x x x x x x x x SK x x x x x x x x x x x X August

29 Objective Individual training activities Employer training / financial support Career guidance Out of school activities Prevention of ESL Individual financial incentives and support Job opportunities and internships New / improved curricula Capacity-building of teachers and training staff Work-based learning Quality assurance measures of E&T Recognition of prior learning Support to networks Innovative forms of work Health and safety at work Outplacement / restructuring UK x x x x x x x x x x Source: ICF analysis of AIRs The most widely undertaken activities across the EU-27 in the period were: Individual training activities (which took place in all EU-27 Member States); Career guidance and training (all EU-27 except MT and SE); Development of new or improved curricula (all except AT, DK and SE); and Capacity-building of teachers and training staff (all except DK and SE). In contrast, the following types of activities occurred less frequently: Outplacement and restructuring support (only DE, ES, FI, IT, LV, PL, RO, and SK) Health and safety at work (only CZ, DE, ES, FR, HU, IT, LV, MT, PL, RO, SK) Other activities particular to individual countries include: Introduction of ICT in education processes Public opinion and awareness raising campaigns ICT systems in schools Support to entrepreneurship and self-employment Specific support to in R&D. Specific support to VET Specific support to higher education Gender balance activities. The analysis of the key ESF activities across the Regional Competitiveness or Convergence OPs is presented in Table 4. For both Regional Competitiveness and Convergence OPs, the most recurrent activity was training targeted to individuals, followed by the career guidance. Similarly, in both types of OPs, the least implemented activities were outplacements and support to restructuring. Table 4. Overview of activities by Regional Competitiveness / Convergence / Multiobjectives OPs (count of the coverage of activity in the OP) Regional Competitiveness Convergence Multiobjective Source: ICF analysis of AIRs Activities were also analysed by the policy field (Human Capital or Adaptability) (see Table 5). August

30 Policy Field Individual training activities Employer training / financial support Career guidance Out of school activities Prevention of ESL Individual financial incentives and support Job opportunities and internships New / improved curricula Capacity-building of teachers and training staff Work-based learning Quality assurance measures of E&T Recognition of prior learning Support to networks Innovative forms of work Health and safety at work Outplacement / restructuring The analysis of specific activities under each policy field reveals that in both policy fields the most recurrent ESF funded activity was the training activities targeted to individuals. However, activities regarding the development of new curriculum, or the capacity building of teachers and trainers were also widespread under the HC priority. In turn, activities in the Adaptability policy priority focused more on employer training and financial support, career guidance or innovative and productive forms of work. Table 5. Overview of activities by Human Capital / Adaptability policy fields (count of the coverage of activity in the OP) Human Capital Adaptability Multiple Source: ICF analysis of AIRs Main target groups supported by ESF HC investment in the EU-27 in ESF HC investment reached a wide group of target populations in all EU-27 Member States, including: General education students Early School Leavers Teachers Education system staff Initial VET students Initial VET trainers Schools Institutions / Organizations HE students HE staff Researchers Enterprises Workers Unemployed Young unemployed Vulnerable groups Low skilled Disabled Minorities Older people Inactive As in the case of activities, the countries with multiple OPs (DE, ES, and IT) targeted all key target groups, although ES exceptionally did not target the older people. RO and SK also did target all the target groups. Other countries with a wide range of target groups include FR, HU, LV, MT, and PL. The groups more frequently targeted include: Workers (all EU-27 except UK) General education students (all EU-27 except DK, LU and UK) Early School Leavers (all EU-27 except DK and MT) Teachers (all EU-27 except DK, IE and UK) Unemployed (all EU-27 except AT, BG, and LT). August

31 MS General education students Early School Leavers Teachers Education system staff IVET students IVET trainers Schools Institutions / Organizations HE students HE staff Researchers Enterprises Workers Unemployed Young unemployed Vulnerable groups Low skilled Disabled Minorities Older people Inactive On the other hand, the least targeted groups were: Older people (only in AT, CZ, DE, FI, FR, IE, IT, LU, MT, PL, RO, SK and UK) Inactive (only in CZ, DE, EE, ES, FR, IE, IT, LU, MT, RO and SK). Table 6. Overview of the ESF HC target groups across the EU-27 in AT x x x x x x x x x x x x x BE x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x BG x x x x X x x x x x x x x x x x x CY x x x x x x x x x x CZ x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x DE x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x DK x x x x x x x x x EE x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x EL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x ES x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x FI x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x FR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x HU x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x IE x x x x x x x x x x x x x IT x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x LT x x x x x x x x LU x x x x x x x x x x x x x LV x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x MT x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x NL x x x x x x PL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x PT x x x x x x x x x x x x x x RO x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x SE x x x x x x x x x x x SI x x x x x x x x x x x SK x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x UK x x x x x x x x x x Source: ICF analysis of AIRs Other key target groups that were targeted through ESF HC investment in individual countries included: September

32 Policy field General education students Early School Leavers Teachers Education system staff IVET students IVET trainers Schools Institutions / Organizations HE students HE staff Researchers Enterprises Workers Unemployed Young unemployed Vulnerable groups Low skilled Disabled Minorities Older people Inactive OPs General education students Early School Leavers Teachers Education system staff IVET students IVET trainers Schools Institutions / Organizations HE students HE staff Researchers Enterprises Workers Unemployed Young unemployed Vulnerable groups Low skilled Disabled Minorities Older people Inactive Entrepreneurs, specialists and key operational staff Social partners and policy makers Gender-based violence victims People hit by the earthquake (IT). The coverage of target groups was also consistently analysed across the OPs from the Regional Competitiveness and Convergence objectives (see Table 7). In both Regional Competitiveness and Convergence OPs, the most frequently addressed target groups were workers, enterprises and the unemployed. Teachers, IVET trainers, schools and older people were also, in both instances, the least frequently targeted groups. Table 7. Overview of target groups according to Regional Competitiveness or Convergence objectives 12 (count of the coverage of target groups in the OP) Convergence Regional Competitiveness Multiobjectives Source: ICF analysis of AIRs The mapping of target groups across the Human Capital and Adaptability policy fields is presented Table 8. Workers, the unemployed and enterprises were consistently the most frequent target groups for both Human Capital and Adaptability fields. Table 8. Overview of target groups according to Human Capital and Adaptability policy fields (count of the coverage of target groups in the OP) 13 Human Capital Adaptability Multiple Source: ICF analysis of AIRs Note Table 7 double counting might occur as some activities were considered relevant for both RC and C 13 Note Table 8 double counting might occur as some activities were considered relevant for both RCH and A September

33 3.5 Analysis of linkages between the Member State policies and ESF investment into human capital This section analyses the extent to which ESF HC investment has been used to support and achieve the national and EU policies and objectives. At the national level, Member States have linked ESF HC investment to support a wide range of activities in the area of human capital. Table 9 below provides an overview of the main linkages between ESF funding and national policies. Table 9. Overview of the linkages between the Member State policies and ESF support to HC MS ESF provided additional funding to the activities of the education system (supplementing national funding) ESF was used to test new and innovative activities ESF was used to reach new target groups ESF was used as core funding to reforms ESF was used as supplementary funding to reforms ESF was used to improve the education and training delivery systems and methods AT x x x BE x x x BG x x x x x CY x x x x x CZ x x x x x x DE x x x x DK x x x x x EE x x x x EL x x x x x ES x x x x x FI x x x FR x x x x x HU x x x x x IE x x x IT x x x x LT x x x x x x LU x x LV x x x x x MT x x x x x NL x x x PL x x x x x x PT x x x x x RO x x x x x SE x X SI x x SK x X x x x UK x X x x Total Source: ICF analysis of AIRs September

34 Overall, the ESF HC investment was most likely to be used to test and implement innovative activities in all the countries (AT, BG, CZ, CY, DE, DK, EE, ES, FI, FR, HU, IT, LT, LU, LV, MT, PL, PT, RO, SE). Exceptions included IE and SI. In IE, many of the activities in this area were funded previously, while in SI investment in ESF HC funding was focused on training and development activities with a long-term effect. The ESF HC investment has also been widely used to provide additional funding to support activities in the education system (AT, BG, CZ, CY, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, HU, IE, IT, LT, MT, PL, RO, SE, SI, SK, UK) and to improve education and training delivery systems and methods (AT, BG, CZ, CY, DE, DK, EE, ES, FI, FR, HU, IE, IT, LT, LV, MT, PL, PT, RO, SK, UK). The only exceptions are LU, PT and SE. In SE delivery systems were not funded, while in PT ESF investment were not used as an additional funding source. In LU, ESF HC investments were centred on other areas such as implementing innovative activities and used as supplementary funding for reforms. With regard to the contribution of ESF to funding the reforms, evidence shows that it was mainly used to fund supplementary reforms rather than as core funding. At national level, CZ, LT and PL have used ESF HC investments to achieve all the national objectives identified in this analysis. Conversely, LU, SE and SI focused ESF HC investments only on a limited amount of objectives. ESF HC investment has also been used to contribute to the themes associated with EU policies and targets in the area of education and training. Table 10 below illustrates the main contribution of ESF HC investment to meeting the ET 2020 benchmarks. Overall, the vast majority of Member States used the ESF HC investments to support participation in lifelong learning and improve the employability of workers. With regard to the first, the only exception was SI, while for the latter SE and DK. Conversely, ESF HC investment was not frequently used for early childhood education and for foreign languages. Evidence shows that CZ, HU, IT and PL used ESF to achieve all the ET2020 targets on human capital, while in SE funds were only allocated to support participation in lifelong learning. Table 10. Contribution of the country s ESF HC investment to the themes associated with the ET2020 benchmarks MS Reducing early school leaving Completion Participation Reading, of higher education in early childhood education mathematics and science skills (15 years old) Participation in lifelong learning InternationalEmployabilityForeign mobility languages AT x x x x x BE x x x x x x x BG x x x x x x x CY x 14 x x x CZ x x x x x x x x DE x x x x x DK x 14 Reducing early school leaving priority (mentioned also in other tables in volume I) refers mainly to one project which has also been analysed under the theme of Social Inclusion. September

35 Objective Reducing early school leaving Completion of higher education Participation in early childhood education Reading, mathematics and science skills (15 years old) Participation in lifelong learning International mobility Employability Foreign languages EE x x x x x x EL x x x x x x x ES x x x x x x x FI x x x x FR x x x x x HU x x x x x x x X IE X x x x IT X x x x x x x X LT x x x x x LU X x x x x LV X x x x x x MT x x x x x NL x x x x PL X x x x x x x x PT X x x x x RO x x X x x x x SE x SI X X x x x x SK X x x x UK X X X x Total Source: ICF analysis of AIRs An analysis by the Regional Competitiveness/ Convergence/Multiobjective OPs highlights the trends depicted in the table below. Convergence objective OPs were in average more aligned with the ET2020 benchmarks than Regional Competitiveness ones. Still, in both types of OPs, the most recurrent objectives were similar, including reducing early school leaving, the completion of higher education, participation in LLL and Employability. Table 11. Contribution of the country s ESF HC investment to the themes associated with the ET2020 benchmarks by Competiveness/Convergence/ Multiobjective OPs Convergence BG CZ DE EE ES FR FR IT LV PL RO SI UK AT BG CZ D EE ES FR FR IT LT LV MT PL RO BG PL RO BG CZ DE ES IT LT LU LV MT PL RO SI UK AT BG BG CZ DE DK EE ES FR IT LT LU LV MT PL RO SI UK CZ DE EE ES FR FR IT LT MT PL RO SI AT BG CZ DE EE ES FR FR IT LT LU LV MT PL RO SI BG EE IT LU LV RO SI Regional AT DE DE ES FI ES IT AT DE IT AT DE ES AT DE FI DE ES IT September

36 Theme Reducing early school leaving Completion of higher education Participation in early childhood education Reading, mathematics and science skills (15 years old) Participation in lifelong learning International mobility Employability Foreign languages Competitiveness FI FR IT PT PT UK FI FR IT PT FI FR IT PT UK DE ES FR IT R IT PT UK Multiobjectives CZ SK CZ SK CZ SK CZ CZ ES CZ CZ ES SK CZ Source: ICF analysis of AIRs The OPs priorities attributed to the Human Capital and Adaptability Policy fields saw a more even distribution of ET2020 benchmarks (with the only, but understandable - exception of no Adaptability investment into participation in early childhood education. In this case, countries focussed more consistently on areas of participation in LLL and employability across both Adaptability and HC policy fields. The OPs priorities attributed to the Human Capital were more frequently associated with the completion of higher education and reducing early school leaving, which is again to be expected. Table 12. Contribution of the country s ESF HC investment to the themes associated with the ET2020 benchmarks by HC / Adaptability theme Adaptability EE FR IT LV SI UK DE PT UK AT FI FR IT LV DE LT LU LV SI UK AT BG CZ DE DE EE ES FI FR IT LU LV PL PT RO SI UK DE EE ES FR IT RO SI AT CZ DE EE ES FI FR IT LT LU LV PL PT RO SI BG CZ DE EE ES IT LU SI Human Capital AT BG CZ DE ES FI FR IT LV PL PT RO SK BG CZ DE EE ES FI FR IT LT LV MT PL PT RO SK BG CZ ES IT PL RO SK AT BG CZ AT BG CZ DE DK EE CZ DE ES IT ES FI FR FR IT LV MT PL IT LT LU LV RO MT PL PT RO SI UK CZ DE EE ES FR IT LT MT PL RO AT BG CZ DE EE ES FI FR FR IT LT LU LV MT PL PT RO SI SK UK CZ DE ES IT IT LV RO Source: ICF analysis of AIRs The Member States used the ESF HC investments to address a number of the CSRs in the areas of adaptability and human capital. The analysis shows that ESF-financed activities are evenly distributed to address CSRs in both policy fields, with the predominance of the adaptability policy field (see Table 13). 15 Table 13. Contribution of the country s ESF HC investment to CSRs in the Adaptability or Human Capital policy fields MS Contribution to Adaptability field Contribution to Human Capital field AT X X BE x x BG x CY x x 15 For the analysis of CSRs a split between Regional Convergence or Competitiveness objective OPs was not possible. September

37 CZ DE DK x X X EE X x EL x x ES x x FI x FR x x HU x x IE X IT X x LT x LU X x LV X MT X X NL x x PL X PT X x RO X x SE SI x x SK X UK Source: ICF analysis of AIRs X Estonia and Hungary are the countries that have used ESF HC investments more regularly to support activities aiming at addressing CSRs. In other countries, such as DE and FI, CSRs ESF contributed to addressing the CSR challenges in the areas of human capital and adaptability: in DE, ESF contributed in 2004 and in 2007 to address CSRs focused on improving educational levels of the workforce and continuing to encourage the dual system of school and on-the-job training. In FI contributions to CSRs were carried out in 2008 and in 2009 and focused on activities to facilitate labour market access, prevent early school leaving and support the transition from school to work. Close links have also been identified in IT and FR. In contrast, in Romania, so far, ESF contributed only in 2013 to the implementation of specific projects aimed at addressing identified CSRs in the areas of adaptability and human capital. Table 14. Number of years where country s ESF HC investment contributed to the country-specific recommendations in the period MS Adaptability Human Capital Adaptability/Human Capital AT 3 4 BE 3 3 BG 4 CY 5 6 CZ 4 DE 2 September

38 DK 3 EE 7 7 EL 4 4 ES 2 3 FI 2 FR 5 2 HU 6 7 IE 1 IT 4 4 LT 4 LU 2 1 LV 1 MT 4 NL 1 2 PL 6 PT 1 3 RO 1 0 SE 3 2 SI 4 2 SK 1 UK 4 4 Source: ICF analysis of AIRs September

39 4 Description of financial volumes, outputs and results 4.1 Introduction This section presents the overview of the financial volumes, outputs and results of the ESF HC investment in the period. The financial volumes are analysed first with respect to the financial expenditure of the relevant PAs and sub-priorities and then with respect to the HC relevant common codes of expenditure. The ESF HC outputs are analysed on the basis of socio-economic data on ESF participants provided in Annex XXIII and OP specific output indicators. Here, the OP specific indicators have been grouped into the key categories of outputs for participants, entities and products. The ESF HC investment results are analysed on the basis of the OP specific result indicators. Here, the OP specific indicators have been grouped into the key categories of outputs for participants, entities, products and systems. Within each category, the key types of result indicators have been identified, based on their occurrence in the OP monitoring indicators. 4.2 Analysis of financial volumes Financial volumes analysis by PAs The total financial envelope assigned to the Human capital policy field 16 (covering both the Human capital and Adaptability themes) was 51,859,496,732 billion, comprising the total EU and national funding (see Table 16 and Volume II, Annex III for information on the different allocations by OP). Particularly large financial volumes were assigned to the HC policy field in Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Germany, with these four Member States accounting for over 55 % of total EU-27 funding. The total amount of certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries by the end 2013 (or actual expenditure) was 33,110,800,273. This reflected the financial progress achieved by end of Again, the four Member States Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Germany accounted for nearly 60 % of the EU-27 certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries. The majority of the certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries was composed of the public contribution ( 30,761,898,944 by the end of 2013). This indicates that the ESF human capital was not very successful in attracting private co-funding sources to the human capital development activities (e.g. from enterprises, although good examples of this were noted in France for example due to focus on ESF providing enterprise training where the company oriented training was co-financed privately by companies, see Volume III, section 4.10). The average rate however hides significant variations between the countries, from the implementation rates above 70 % in Austria, Latvia, and Portugal to the rates around 30 % in Hungary, the Netherlands, Romania and Slovakia. The highest allocated expenditure to the human capital policy field was observed in the Convergence OPs (see Table 15), followed by multi-objective OPs and lastly the competitiveness OPs. This pattern is repeated for the actual expenditure and corresponding public contribution. 16 This was undertaken on the basis of assigning the most appropriate Priority Axes (and in some countries sub-priorities) in the Operational Programmes to the Human Capital field, as well as a cross-check with the other ex-post evaluations to ensure consistency and avoid overlaps with the access to employment and social inclusion themes. Source: SFC database. September

40 Table 15. ESF human capital investment expenditure by OP objective Objective Total funding of the OP (Union and national) Total amount of certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries Corresponding public contribution Convergence 19,367,143,569 11,727,151,087 11,284,675,082 Competitiveness 14,796,722,402 9,746,862,417 8,212,561,736 Multi-objective 17,695,630,761 11,636,786,770 11,264,662,126 EU-27 total 51,859,496,732 33,110,800,273 30,761,898,944 Source: SFC database. Table 16. Financial volumes of the ESF HC investment in PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the policy field Human capital (HC and Adaptability), (cumulative to end 2013) MS Total funding of the OP (Union and national) % of EU-27 Total amount of certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries % of EU- 27 Corresponding public contribution % of EU-27 AT 422,074,884 1% 312,579,199 1% 310,202,319 1% 70.6 BE 712,352,978 1% 399,784,940 1% 387,265,910 1% 50.1 BG 567,765,380 1% 273,940,383 1% 273,792,345 1% 48.2 CY 73,089,740 0% 53,282,024 0% 49,474,162 0% 67.7 CZ 2,666,584,519 5% 1,415,110,773 4% 1,410,846,705 5% 54.7 DE 6,708,368,308 13% 4,774,735,507 14% 3,770,397,286 12% 63.3 DK 305,423,088 1% 189,404,282 1% 138,382,789 0% 62.0 EE 271,600,501 1% 194,134,962 1% 178,409,947 1% 72.6 EL 1,675,117,747 3% 933,309,050 3% 933,309,050 3% 61.2 ES 2,923,162,023 6% 2,019,771,981 6% 1,982,502,482 6% 65.4 FI 823,244,112 2% 691,267,385 2% 599,391,928 2% 73.1 FR 3,416,948,488 7% 1,873,078,482 6% 1,309,518,399 4% 52.7 HU 2,108,913,275 4% 848,838,528 3% 845,885,685 3% 37.3 IE 313,680,000 1% 436,000,000 1% na na na IT 7,178,575,725 14% 4,524,138,901 14% 4,503,629,493 15% 59.6 LT 588,538,063 1% 366,988,668 1% 344,976,615 1% 60.6 LU 33,460,098 0% 19,385,639 0% 9,692,820 0% 56.4 LV 290,715,654 1% 246,674,260 1% 246,661,244 1% 87.6 MT 72,395,000 0% 38,482,533 0% 38,482,533 0% 52.2 NL 811,685,214 2% 269,791,499 1% 541,887,715 2% 33.0 PL 6,099,114,942 12% 3,824,120,392 12% 3,665,986,878 12% 59.7 PT 6,945,984,255 13% 5,790,421,146 17% 5,692,736,616 19% 79.1 RO 2,031,101,636 4% 752,065,782 2% 721,015,168 2% 37.7 SE 318,666,773 1% 210,455,042 1% 210,455,042 1% 66.0 SI 502,090,508 1% 373,911,493 1% 344,303,954 1% 70.8 SK 629,285,191 1% 237,147,265 1% 236,265,862 1% 24.1 UK 3,369,558,630 6% 2,041,980,158 6% 2,016,425,999 7% 66.4 EU-27 51,859,496, % 33,110,800, % 30,761,898, % 63.8 Implementation rate ( %) September

41 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. On the basis of PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the HC policy field, the ESF HC investment was compared to the total ESF investment (see Table 17, covering both total funding and certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries). For EU-27, 43 % of the total ESF investment in all PAs can be attributed to the HC policy field. This importance of the HC policy field differed across the Member States, from above 60 % in Portugal, the Czech Republic, Denmark and Luxembourg to around 30 % in Austria, Belgium, France, Greece, Sweden and Slovakia. This reflects the different ESF investment choices made in the Member States. Table 17. The financial volumes of the ESF HC investment in the total ESF investment (cumulative to end 2013) MS Total funding (Union and national) All PAs HC and Adapt PAs Total amount of certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries % All PAs HC and Adapt PAs % AT 1,160,502, ,074,884 36% 909,545, ,579,199 34% BE 2,329,223, ,352,978 31% 1,558,288, ,784,940 26% BG 1,213,869, ,765,380 47% 656,893, ,940,383 42% CY 140,904,888 73,089,740 52% 110,687,550 53,282,024 48% CZ 4,451,397,848 2,666,584,519 60% 2,352,864,597 1,415,110,773 60% DE 15,946,124,760 6,708,368,308 42% 11,542,857,356 4,774,735,507 41% DK 509,577, ,423,088 60% 302,601, ,404,282 63% EE 461,337, ,600,501 59% 358,006, ,134,962 54% ES 11,230,889,765 2,923,162,023 26% 7,429,574,736 2,019,771,981 27% FI 1,420,400, ,244,112 58% 1,121,619, ,267,385 62% FR 10,227,172,755 3,416,948,488 33% 6,055,364, ,309,050 15% GR 4,698,181,588 1,675,117,747 36% 2,616,391,066 1,873,078,482 72% HU 4,093,730,056 2,108,913,275 52% 2,058,771, ,838,528 41% IE 750,724, ,680,000 42% 517,379, ,000,000 84% IT 14,375,212,339 7,178,575,725 50% 8,816,524,062 4,524,138,901 51% LT 1,126,485, ,538,063 52% 746,669, ,988,668 49% LU 50,487,332 33,460,098 66% 30,258,820 19,385,639 64% LV 686,004, ,715,654 42% 593,695, ,674,260 42% MT 131,764,707 72,395,000 55% 61,942,286 38,482,533 62% NL 1,959,832, ,685,214 41% 1,225,611, ,791,499 22% PL 11,773,409,338 6,099,114,942 52% 7,944,692,667 3,824,120,392 48% PT 9,156,782,551 6,945,984,255 76% 7,111,613,032 5,790,421,146 81% RO 4,089,358,714 2,031,101,636 50% 1,140,058, ,065, % SE 1,383,102, ,666,773 23% 841,414, ,455,042 25% SI 889,058, ,090,508 56% 620,921, ,911,493 60% SK 1,762,046, ,285, % 817,924, ,147,265 29% UK 8,655,311,011 3,369,558,630 39% 5,299,390,084 2,041,980,158 39% EU ,672,892,882 51,859,496,732 43% 72,841,564,196 33,110,800,273 44% Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. The financial volumes for two themes in the Human capital field were also analysed separately. The overall financial volume assigned to the Adaptability theme was around 18 billion of total OP EU and national funding (see Table 18). Particularly large financial volumes were assigned to the Adaptability in the UK, Poland, Germany, France and Italy with these five Member States accounting for nearly 70 % of total EU-27 funding. The total amount of certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries as of end 2013 was, at 11 billion, lower than the total funding. This reflected the financial progress September

42 achieved by end of Again, the five Member States the UK, Poland, Germany, France and Italy accounted for nearly 70 % of the EU-27 certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries. The corresponding public contribution volumes reached 10 billion by end Again, the five Member States the UK, Poland, Germany, France and Italy accounted for nearly 70 % of the EU-27 corresponding public contribution volume. The average implementation rate of the funding assigned to the Adaptability reached 62 % across the EU-27. The average rate however hides significant variations between the countries, from the implementation rates above 70 % in Austria, Latvia, and Lithuania to the rates around 20 % in Greece. Table 18. Financial volumes of the ESF HC investment in PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the Adaptability (cumulative to end 2013) MS Total funding of the OP (Union and national) % of EU-27 Total amount of certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries % of EU-27 Corresponding public contribution % of EU- 27 AT 294,178,884 2 % 242,604,906 2 % 240,238,779 2 % 81 BE 252,689,200 1 % 109,888,308 1 % 97,401,289 1 % 45 BG 130,772,333 1 % 58,913,422 1 % 58,913,422 1 % 45 CZ 573,576,280 3 % 345,517,714 3 % 342,819,115 3 % 71 DE 2,369,733, % 1,548,388, % 1,145,265, % 63 EE 85,322,051 0 % 65,095,177 1 % 49,594,383 0 % 76 EL 11,307,375 0 % 2,211,294 0 % 2,211,294 0 % 20 ES 1,185,171,536 6 % 752,643,405 6 % 716,081,944 7 % 66 FI 443,429,571 2 % 389,150,223 3 % 309,436,336 3 % 70 FR 2,511,418, % 1,391,536, % 863,041,384 8 % 49 HU 646,751,921 3 % 260,945,671 2 % 258,776,191 3 % 40 IT 2,268,532, % 1,427,011, % 1,406,581, % 58 LT 195,067,994 1 % 157,445,725 1 % 136,872,836 1 % 81 LU 20,352,130 0 % 12,920,560 0 % 6,460,280 0 % 63 LV 14,368,523 0 % 13,502,312 0 % 13,502,312 0 % 94 MT 30,995,000 0 % 14,000,547 0 % 14,000,547 0 % 45 NL 556,496,584 3 % 269,791,499 2 % 286,699,085 3 % 48 PL 2,373,543, % 1,670,660, % 1,518,161, % 64 PT 586,272,746 3 % 506,057,322 4 % 425,171,574 4 % 73 RO 519,656,411 3 % 228,532,508 2 % 220,887,064 2 % 43 SE 39,833,347 0 % 26,306,880 0 % 26,306,880 0 % 66 SI 308,370,548 2 % 218,188,966 2 % 188,581,427 2 % 61 UK 3,223,063, % 1,952,835, % 1,927,281, % 68 EU 18,640,903, % 11,664,148, % 10,254,285, % 62 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. Implementation rate ( %) The overall financial volume assigned to the Human capital theme was around 33 billion of total OP EU and national funding (see Table 19). Particularly large financial volumes were assigned to the HC policy field in Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Germany, with these four Member States accounting for over 45 % of total EU-27 funding. The total amount of certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries as of end 2013 was, at 21 billion, lower than the total funding. This reflected the financial progress achieved by end of Again, the four Member States Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Germany accounted for nearly 50 % of the EU-27 certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries. September

43 The corresponding public contribution volumes reached 20 billion by end Again, the four Member States Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Germany accounted for nearly 50 % of the EU-27 corresponding public contribution volume. The average implementation rate of the funding assigned to the HC policy field reached nearly 65 % across the EU-27. The average rate however hides significant variations between the countries, from the implementation rates above 70 % in Estonia, Finland, Portugal and Slovenia to the rates below 30 % in Hungary, the Netherlands, Romania and Slovakia. Table 19. Financial volumes of the ESF HC investment in PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the Human capital, (cumulative to end 2013) MS Total funding of the OP (Union and national) % of EU-27 Total amount of certified eligible expenditure paid by beneficiaries % of EU-27 Corresponding public contribution % of EU-27 AT 127,896, % 69,974, % 69,963, % 60.6 BE 459,663, % 289,896, % 289,864, % 57.2 BG 436,993, % 215,026, % 214,878, % 49.7 CY 73,089, % 53,282, % 49,474, % 67.7 CZ 2,044,278, % 1,033,469, % 1,033,469, % 50.4 DE 4,338,634, % 3,226,347, % 2,625,132, % 63.3 DK 305,423, % 189,404, % 138,382, % 62.0 EE 186,278, % 129,039, % 128,815, % 70.8 EL 1,663,810, % 931,097, % 931,097, % 64.7 ES 1,737,990, % 1,267,128, % 1,266,420, % 64.8 FI 379,814, % 302,117, % 289,955, % 76.3 FR 905,530, % 481,542, % 446,477, % 56.7 HU 1,462,161, % 587,892, % 587,109, % 36.4 IE 313,680, % 436,000, % na na na IT 4,910,042, % 3,097,127, % 3,097,048, % 61.0 LT 393,470, % 209,542, % 208,103, % 50.6 LU 13,107, % 6,465, % 3,232, % 49.3 LV 276,347, % 233,171, % 233,158, % 84.4 MT 41,400, % 24,481, % 24,481, % 59.1 NL 255,188, % - 0.0% 255,188, % 0.0 PL 3,725,571, % 2,153,460, % 2,147,825, % 57.0 PT 6,359,711, % 5,284,363, % 5,267,565, % 81.6 RO 1,511,445, % 523,533, % 500,128, % 35.3 SE 278,833, % 184,148, % 184,148, % 66.0 SI 193,719, % 155,722, % 155,722, % 80.4 SK 629,285, % 237,147, % 236,265, % 36.1 UK 146,495, % 89,144, % 89,144, % 61.4 EU ,169,863, ,410,528, ,473,055, Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. Implementation rate ( %) Finally, the distribution of financial volumes by Adaptability / HC theme was assessed at the country level (see Figure 18). This shows that at the EU-27 level, the HC theme dominated the financial volumes with 64 % of the overall policy field, whereas the Adaptability theme accounted for 36 % of the overall policy field. However, at the country level, the weight given to the two themes within the HC policy field differed quite markedly. So on one hand, there is a group of Member States where the Adaptability theme received more significant financial volume such as Austria, Finland, France, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Slovenia and the UK. In contrast, in the September

44 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK EU-27 other group the Human capital theme was significantly higher in the financial volumes including Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, Denmark, Greece, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Slovakia. Thus, the majority of the Member States allocated significantly higher financial volumes to the HC theme. Figure 18. The financial distribution of Adaptability and HC themes (respective theme as a % of the overall HC policy field, total Union and national funding) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% % of Adapt % of HC Source: ICF analysis of SFC data Financial volumes analysis by common codes of expenditure The analysis of financial volumes was also undertaken using the codes of expenditure commonly recorded amongst the OPs (see Table 20). Overall, 17 % of all ESF human capital expenditure could be attributed to the Adaptability policy theme (codes 62, 63 and 64), whereas 40 % of all expenditure could be attributed to the Human capital theme across the EU-27 (codes 72, 73, 74). Amongst the individual expenditure codes, the highest financial volume was for Code ( 13 billion, ESF Community contribution), followed by the financial volumes for Code ( 7.1 billion). This is in contrast to the smallest financial volume allocated to Code ( 1.5 billion). The country variations were pronounced for both policy themes. In relation to Adaptability across the expenditure codes associated with the Adaptability theme (62, 63 and 64), the proportion of financial volumes varied from a high above 50 %, in Denmark and the Netherlands, to below 10 % in Estonia, Spain, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Latvia. Variations were more pronounced at individual code level. For Code 62 (development of lifelong systems), the financial volume varied from 1.2 billion in Germany to no allocations in Ireland, Luxembourg and Latvia. For Code 63 (innovative forms of work), the financial volumes varied from 2.5 billion in Greece to no allocations in 11 Member States. Also for Code 64 (restructuring and economic change), the financial volumes varied from over 300 million in Italy to no allocations in 12 Member States. 17 Code 73:Measures to increase participation in education and training throughout the life-cycle, including through action to achieve reductions in early school leaving, gender-based segregation of subjects and increased access and quality of initial vocational and tertiary education and training 18 Code 62 Development of lifelong learning systems and strategies in firms, training and services for employees to step up their adaptability to change, promoting entrepreneurship and innovation. 19 Code 64 Development of specific services for employment, training and support in connection with restructuring of sectors and firms, and development of systems for anticipating economic changes and future requirements in terms of jobs and skills. September

45 In relation to the Human capital expenditure codes associated with the Human capital theme (72, 73 and 74), the ESF allocations varied from 60 % in Hungary, Ireland and Luxembourg to below 10 % in Austria, Belgium and the UK. Country variations were pronounced for specific codes. For Code 72 (reforms of education systems), the financial volume varied from over 1 billion in the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece and Italy to no allocation in Ireland and Slovakia. For Code 73 (participation in education cycle), the volumes differed from 4 billion in Portugal and 2 billion in Poland to no allocations in Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden. Also for Code 74 (research and innovation skills), the volumes varied from over 1 billion in Germany to no allocations in Cyprus, Ireland, Sweden and Slovakia. Direct comparisons between the financial volumes analysis using the PA approach and the codes of expenditure approach are problematic due to the different definitions used (the first method relied on the calculation of the financial volumes using an allocation of PAs to the human capital field whereas the second method relied on the allocation of certain expenditure codes which would apply across the PAs) and different understandings and approaches by MAs to allocating the expenditure to the common categories of expenditure. September

46 Table 20. Financial volumes of the ESF HC investment in the codes of expenditure assigned to Human capital, ESF Community contribution, (cumulative to end 2013) Codes Total 62, 63, 64 Definition: Development of lifelong learning systems and strategies in firms, training and services for employees to step up their adaptability to change, promoting entrepreneurship and innovation Matching 1 (lifelong clusters: 20 learning systems) AT BE Design and dissemination of innovative and more productive ways of organising work 9 (professional upskilling of employed) Development of specific services for employment, training and support in connection with restructuring of sectors and firms, and development of systems for anticipating economic changes and future requirements in terms of jobs and skills Total Adaptability theme 9 (professional upskilling of employed) % in all codes 21% 21% Total 72, 73, 74 Design, introduction and implementation of reforms in education and training systems in order to develop employability, improving the labour market relevance of initial and vocational education and training, updating skills of training personnel with a view to innovation and a knowledge based economy 4 (Quality of school education), 5 (Quality of Vocational education), 8 (Transition for young people) Measures to increase participation in education and training throughout the life-cycle, including through action to achieve reductions in early school leaving, gender-based segregation of subjects and increased access and quality of initial vocational and tertiary education and training 6 (Reducing early school leaving), 10 (upskilling of adults) Developing human potential in the field of research and innovation, in particular through postgraduate studies and training of researchers, and networking activities between universities, research centres and businesses Total Human capital theme % in all codes 2 (Quality of higher education), 7 (Research and innovation) and 11 (Participation in HE) % 10% 20 It has not been possible to match the cluster 3 (early childhood education and care) with any corresponding code of expenditure. September

47 BG % % CY % % CZ % 1, , % DE 1, , % 1, , , , % DK % % EE % % EL 0.4 2, , % 1, , , % ES % % FI % % FR % % HU % , % IE % % IT % 1, , , % LT % % LU % % LV % % MT % % NL % % PL 1, , % , , % PT % , , % RO % , % SE % % September

48 SI % % SK % % UK % % EU-27 7, , , , % 9, , , , % Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. September

49 The importance of ESF HC investment in the national context The importance of the ESF HC investment was also assessed in the national context in contrast to the national expenditure on education and training. On average (annualised data), across the 26 Member States for which data were available (except Greece), 21 the ESF HC investment per year in the period represented 1 % of the national education and training expenditure (excluding primary education) (see Table 21). This however varied substantially from 0.2 % in the Netherlands and Sweden to 10.4 % in Portugal. Hence, three groups of countries were identified: 19 countries with low significance of ESF HC investment (below 2 %): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden, UK, 6 countries with medium significance of ESF HC investment (2-5 %): Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovenia. 1 country with high significance of ESF HC investment (above 5 %): Portugal. Analysis of the significance of the ESF human capital investment by Convergence / Regional Competitiveness objectives shows that out of eight Member States with a high number of Convergence OPs, six Member States had medium and high levels of ESF human capital investment significance in the national education and training expenditure. This signals a more important role played by the ESF human capital investment in the Convergence OPs also due to the wider scope of the ESF human capital investment envisaged for the Convergence OPs in the ESF Regulation. Table 21. The significance of the ESF HC investment in the national expenditure, million Member State ESF HC investment (total certified expenditure paid by beneficiaries as of end 2013) annual average , SFC database, (A) National education and training expenditure annual average * (Eurostat) (excluding primary education )(B) % of the ESF in the national expendit ure (A/B) The degree of significa nce Competi tiveness OPs (% of all ESF HC actual expendit ure) Converg ence OPs (% of all ESF HC actual expendit ure) Multiobjectiv e OPs (% of all ESF HC actual expendit ure) Austria 0.4% Low 4% 96% 0% ,131.6 Belgium 0.4% Low 35% 65% 0% ,427.8 Bulgaria 1.4% Low 100% 0% 0% ,723.8 Cyprus 0.7% Low 0% 100% 0% 7.6 1,055.0 Czech 2.7% Medium 0% 4% 96% Republic ,451.1 Denmark 6.3% Low 0% 100% 0% ,820.2 Estonia 3.0% Medium 100% 0% 0% Finland 0.4% Low 0% 100% 0% ,891.5 France 0.2% Low 13% 87% 0% ,111.0 Germany 0.3% Low 28% 48% 24% ,188.5 Greece n/a n/a - 0% 0% 100% 21 Data for the national education and training expenditure for Greece was not available from the Eurostat data. September

50 98.8 Hungary ,608.1 Ireland ,595.1 Italy ,928.8 Latvia ,146.5 Lithuania ,104.2 Luxembourg Malta Netherlands ,275.1 Poland ,558.2 Portugal ,937.1 Romania ,442.4 Slovakia ,065.9 Slovenia ,475.2 Spain ,296.7 Sweden ,685.8 United Kingdom ,801.6 EU-27 4, , % Low 0% 0% 100% 2.2% Low 0% 100% 0% 0.1% Low 50% 50% 0% 56.4% Medium 100% 0% 0% 2.5% Medium 100% 0% 0% 0.6% Low 0% 100% 0% 8.1% Low 100% 0% 0% 0.0% Low 0% 100% 0% 0.2% Medium 100% 0% 0% 6.9% High 3% 1% 95% 11.1% Low 100% 0% 0% 3.5% Low 0% 0% 100% 2.0% Medium 100% 0% 0% 0.1% Low 57% 25% 18% 0.2% Low 0% 100% 0% 0.5% Low 16% 23% 61% 1.0% Low 35% 29% 35% Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data, latest data available from Eurostat dates from 2011, no data for Greece. 4.3 Analysis of outputs In this section, the analysis of key outputs is presented for the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the HC field. The analysis consists of the following: Analysis of the output data using the key socio-economic characteristics of participants (Annex XXIII data). The key advantage of this dataset was the fact that it was completed for all the OPs, thus enabling direct comparisons. The key limitation was the finding that the data was been completed differently by different authorities (e.g. especially in relation to the disadvantaged group status) Analysis of OP specific output indicators for participants, entities, products, Analysis of OP specific result indicators for participants, entities, products and systems. Both OP specific output and result datasets were useful in the sense that they allowed the authorities to reflect the particular circumstances of the OPs and select indicators reflecting their own particular circumstances. However, this resulted in a huge variety of indicators defined (over 1,800 output and 1,300 result indicators were identified) which makes the process of cross-country comparison incredibly problematic. Each of the analysis blocks is presented in turn below. September

51 4.3.1 Outputs for participants (based on Annex XXIII categories) In relation to outputs for participants 22, Annex XXIII data for the PAs and subpriorities assigned to the HC field shows that overall, by end 2013, 49.7 million entries were recorded in the PAs and sub-priorities of the ESF human capital development (see Table 22). This varied from around 23,000 participants in Luxembourg to over 7 million participants in the Czech Republic. Table 22. Total number of participants (entering) under HC PA/sub-PAs, cumulative to end 2013 MS Total number of participants - entering AT 565,434 BE 768,681 BG 1,281,403 CY 12,369 CZ 7,061,020 DK 41,005 EE 736,494 FI 323,782 FR 1,707,702 DE 3,529,190 EL 2,852,879 HU 2,357,203 IE 693,213 IT 5,760,256 LV 268,247 LT 332,988 LU 23,436 MT 66,974 NL 1,123,064 PL 5,134,545 PT 6,585,147 RO SK 276,532 SI 522,424 ES 5,195,051 SE 247,350 UK 1,594,209 EU-27 49,757,057 Source: ICF analysis of SFC (PA level), AIR 2013 (sub-pa level). Analysis of the number of participants by the OP objective shows that 41% of participants were from multi-objective OPs, followed by 32% of participants from 22 The data recording procedures did not allow for differentiating between unique participants and individuals who participated in ESF multiple times. The figures reported are likely to reflect the number of participations - some individuals participated several times. Henceforth, the term participants is used, even though the data reflects multiple participations of the same participant. September

52 LT SK EE SI AT RO SE PT HU BG CY EL PL IT FI LV EU-27 CZ ES UK BE FR MT DK LU DE NL Convergence OPs and 24% of participants from Competiveness objective OPs (see Table 23). Table 23. Total number of participants (entering) by Convergence / Competitiveness objective under HC PA/sub-PAs, cumulative to end 2013 OP Objective Total number of participants - entering Competitiveness 12,653,410 Convergence 16,653,088 Multi-objective 20,419,641 Total 49,757,057 Source: SFC (PA level), AIR 2013 (sub-pa level). The proportion of women amongst all the participants in the HC relevant PAs and subpriorities was 51% on average, across the EU-27 (by end 2013, see Figure 19). This ranged from 69 % of women participants in Lithuania to 29 % in the Netherlands, displaying significant country variations in terms of the gender breakdown amongst the ESF HC investment participants. The proportion of female participants was the same in the convergence and multi-objective OPs (53%) and lower in the competitiveness OPs (see Table 24). Figure 19. Share of women among entering participants under HC PA/sub-PAs, cumulative to end % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: SFC (PA level), AIR 2013 (sub-pa level). Table 24. Proportion of female participants in the OPs by objective, cumulative to end 2013 OP Female Convergence 53% Competitiveness 43% Multi-objective 53% Source: SFC (PA level), AIR 2013 (sub-pa level). The composition of ESF HC investment participants also differed by other socioeconomic characteristics. In terms of the labour market status, on average across the EU-27, 46 % of the participants were inactive (mostly in education and training), followed by around 40 % of employed participants and finally around 10 % unemployed participants. The September

53 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES EU-27 FI FR HU IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK proportion of inactive participants differed from 93 % in Bulgaria to 0 % in Sweden (see Figure 20). The proportion of employed participants differed similarly from 100 % in Sweden to 6 % in Bulgaria. Finally, the proportion of unemployed participants differed from 45 % in Belgium to 0 % in Sweden. Figure 20. The labour market status of the entering participants under HC PA/sub-PAs, cumulative to end % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Employed Unemployed Inactive Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. The labour market profile of the OP participants also differed between the different objective OPs. Whereas in the convergence and multi-objective OPs, the largest group of participants were inactive (mostly in education and training), in the competitiveness OP the employed were the largest group of participants (see Table 25). Table 25. The labour market profile of participants by OP objective (convergence/ competitiveness / multi-objective) OP Employed Selfemployed Unemploye d Long-term unemploye d Inactiv e in Educatio n / training Convergence 33% 2% 6% 1% 60% 52% Competitiveness 59% 8% 13% 3% 22% 15% Multi-objective 40% 2% 11% 3% 50% 40% Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. In relation to age, young people (15-24) formed around a third of all participants under the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the HC field. This ranged from 62 % in Germany to 5 % in Sweden. In contrast, older people (55-64) formed only around 5 % of all participants under the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the HC field. This ranged from 21 % in Sweden to 0 % in Bulgaria. September

54 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES EU-27 FI FR HU IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Figure 21. Share of young people (15-24) and older people (55-64) among entering participants under HC PA/sub-PAs, cumulative to end % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Young people (15-24 years) Older people (55-64 years) Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. The age profile of the participants also differed between the different objective OPs (see Table 26). The proportion of young people was highest in the convergence OPs (43%), followed by competitiveness OPs (32%) and smallest in the multi-objective OPs (24%). In contrast, the proportion of older people was the same in the convergence and multi-objective OPs (4%) and slightly higher in the competitiveness OPs (6%). Table 26. The age profile of participants by OP objective (convergence/ competitiveness / multi-objective) OP Young people (15-24 years) Older people (55-64 years) Convergence 43% 4% Competitiveness 32% 6% Multi-objective 24% 4% Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. In relation to disadvantaged groups, on average across the EU-27 around 13 % of participants in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the HC field were from a disadvantaged category (see Table 27). The different disadvantaged groups were almost equally distributed (all between 3-4 %). However, country differences again are quite pronounced. So for example the total proportion of various disadvantaged groups amongst the overall ESF HC participants differed from 45 % in Romania, around a third in the Czech Republic and the UK, to less than 2 % in Cyprus, Luxembourg and Portugal. Looking at the individual characteristics of disadvantage, the proportion of migrant participants differed from 18 % in Austria and 12 % in Belgium to 0 % in Bulgaria, the proportion of ethnic minority participants from 13 % in the UK to 0 % in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, and Germany. The proportion of disabled participants differed from 18 % in the Czech Republic and 6 % in the UK to 0 % in Belgium. The proportion of other disadvantaged ranged from 33 % in Romania to 0 % in Belgium or Denmark. Table 27. The proportion of participants from a disadvantaged background among entering participants under HC PA/sub-PAs, cumulative to end 2013 MS Migrants Minorities Disabled Other disadvantaged Total disadvantaged AT 18 % 0 % 1 % 1 % 20 % September

55 BE 12 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 12 % BG 0 % 11 % 1 % 1 % 13 % CY 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 1 % CZ 3 % 10 % 18 % 1 % 32 % DE 6 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 6 % DK 0 % 6 % 0 % 1 % 8 % EE 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 3 % EL* 1 % 1 % 2 % 4 % 7 % ES 12 % 0 % 1 % 1 % 14 % FI 2 % 2 % 2 % 2 % 8 % FR 0 % 4 % 1 % 7 % 12 % HU 2 % 1 % 2 % 3 % 7 % IE 0 % 4 % 3 % 50 %* 57 %* IT 0 % 3 % 1 % 4 % 8 % LT 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 2 % LU 3 % 0 % 3 % 2 % 7 % LV 1 % 3 % 1 % 14 % 19 % MT 0 % 0 % 1 % 0 % 1 % NL 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % PL 0 % 11 % 0 % 33 % 45 % PT 0 % 6 % 1 % 2 % 10 % RO 1 % 1 % 2 % 4 % 7 % SE 6 % 1 % 2 % 2 % 11 % SI 13 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 13 % SK 3 % 13 % 6 % 14 % 36 % UK 3 % 3 % 4 % 3 % 13 % EU % 0 % 1 % 1 % 20 % Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. *possible issues with data accuracy. The disadvantaged group status of the participants also differed between the different objective OPs (see Table 28). The proportion of migrants was highest in the Competitiveness OPs (7%), the proportion of minorities in the multi-objective OPs (5%) and the proportion of disabled participants also in the multi-objective OPs. Overall, the proportion of disadvantaged group participants was highest in the multiobjective OPs (16%) and lowest in the convergence OPs (7%). Table 28. The disadvantaged group profile of participants by OP objective (convergence/ competitiveness / multi-objective) OP Migran ts Minorities Disabled Others Total disadvan taged Convergence 1% 2% 1% 3% 7% Competitiveness 7% 1% 1% 3% 12% Multi-objective 2% 5% 7% 2% 16% Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. In terms of the level of educational attainment, on average across the EU-27, nearly a half of all ESF HC investment participants had ISCED levels 1-2 attainment of primary September

56 AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU-27 or lower secondary education (ISCED 1 and 2) (see Figure 22). This was followed by 28 % of participants who had upper secondary education attainment (ISCED 3) and 20 % who had tertiary education (ISCED 5 and 6). Only 5 % of participants had postsecondary non tertiary education (ISCED 4). The country variations are pronounced. The proportion of participants with primary or lower secondary education attainment (ISCED 1 and 2) ranged from to 71 % in Bulgaria to 7 % in Sweden, upper secondary education attainment (ISCED 3) from 54 % in Austria to 7 % in Lithuania, post-secondary non tertiary education (ISCED 4) from 23 % in France to 1 % in Italy or the UK and the tertiary education (ISCED 5 and 6) from 69 % in Cyprus to 5 % in the Netherlands. Figure 22. The level of education attainment among entering participants under HC PA/sub-PAs, cumulative to end % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Tertiary education (ISCED 5 and 6) Post-secondary non tertiary education (ISCED 4) Upper secondary education (ISCED 3) Primary or lower secondary education (ISCED 1 and 2) Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. The educational attainment profile of the participants was similar between the different objective OPs (see Table 29). The largest group of participants in all OPs were participants with primary / lower secondary education level, followed by participants with upper secondary education. In contrast, participants with postsecondary non-tertiary education were the smallest group of participants. Table 29. The profile of participants by OP objective (convergence/ competitiveness / multi-objective) OP Primary or lower secondary education (ISCED 1 and 2) Upper secondary education (ISCED 3) Postsecondary non tertiary education (ISCED 4) Tertiary education (ISCED 5 and 6) Convergence 43% 23% 5% 19% Competitiveness 35% 30% 7% 16% Multi-objective 41% 21% 3% 15% Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. September

57 AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU The coverage rates of target groups in the 27 Member States The ESF human capital investment also reached a significant proportion of the key target groups. The coverage rates were calculated by comparing the annual average of ESF participants in a certain target group category with the overall target group population in the Member State (based on Eurostat data). Looking at the coverage rates by educational level, the highest coverage rates appear to be for ESF participants at ISCED level 4 (Post-secondary non tertiary education). The ESF human capital investment reached 21 % of students at ISCED level 4 in the programming period (annual average), ranging from above 100 % per year in France, Portugal and Slovenia to below 1% in Belgium and the Netherlands. This was followed by the ESF human capital investment reaching 8 % of students at ISCED level 3 in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 42 % per year in Portugal to 1% in Cyprus and Denmark. Similarly, across the EU-27, the ESF human capital investment reached 6 % of students at ISCED levels 1 and 2 in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 60 % per year in the Czech Republic to below 1% in Cyprus, Denmark and Sweden. Finally, the ESF human capital investment reached 6 % of students at ISCED levels 5 and 6 in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 58 % per year in Estonia to below 1% in Denmark. Figure 23. The annual average coverage rate of ESF participants by ISCED education level status 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% ISCED 1+2 ESF ISCED 3 ESF ISCED 4 ESF ISCED 5+6 Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data. In relation to the different age groups, across the EU-27, the ESF human capital investment reached 4% of young people (15-24) in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 29 % per year in Estonia to below 1% in Cyprus and Sweden. The coverage rate of older people (55-64) was lower, at 1 % at the EU-27 level, with highs of 4-5% in Estonia, Portugal and Slovenia. September

58 PT EE SI CZ HU MT PL ES EL AT NL LT FI LU LV EU-27 IT SK SE RO UK BE DE FR CY BG DK AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU-27 Figure 24. The annual average coverage rate of ESF employed participants 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% ESF annual coverage rate ESF annual coverage rate Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data. Across the EU-27, the ESF human capital investment reached 1% of the employed people in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 11 % per year in Portugal to below 1% in Bulgaria, Cyprus and Denmark. Figure 25. The annual average coverage rate of ESF employed participants 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: ICF analysis of SFC data, Eurostat. However, for the unemployed the coverage rate was higher. Across the EU-27, the ESF human capital investment reached 3% of the unemployed people in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 42% per year in Portugal to below 1% in eight Member States. The coverage rate for long-term unemployed was slightly lower at 2 %, ranging from 27 % in Portugal to below 1 % in 14 Member States. September

59 AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU-27 AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU-27 Figure 26. The annual average coverage rate of ESF unemployed and long-term unemployed participants 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% ESF annual unemployed coverage rate ESF LTU coverage rate Source: ICF analysis of SFC data, Eurostat. Across the EU-27, the ESF human capital investment reached 3 % of the disabled people and 1 % of the migrant population in the programming period (annual average), with particularly high coverage rates for in the Czech Republic (for migrants), Greece (for disabled) and Italy (for disabled). Figure 27. The annual average coverage rate of ESF migrant and disabled participants 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Disabled coverage rate Migrant coverage rate Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data Outputs for participants based on OP specific indicators Overall, by end 2013, ESF supported around 42 million participants, ranging from less than 10,000 in Cyprus and Slovakia to more than 5 million in Germany and Spain, 7 million in Portugal and 8 million in the UK (see Table 30). The overall EU-27 figure and country specific figures are difficult to compare directly with the total number of entering participants (see Table 22) as the definitions used to count participants are different in the OPs, and the OP specific indicators for participants were not present in three Member States (FI, NL, SE). September

60 Table 30. Number of participants in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (cumulative end 2013) MS Number of participants AT 766,737 BE 703,335 BG 902,197 CY 7,662 CZ 1,326,640 DE 5,764,988 DK 41,005 EE 46,838 ES 5,707,103 FR 129,664 GR 925,617 HU 1,650,271 IE 693,213 IT 4,265,776 LT 159,164 LU 25,346 LV 218,924 MT 62,962 PL 2,315,544 PT 7,037,244 RO 157,978 SI 707,933 SK 4,507 UK 8,441,292 Total 42,061,940 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. Further disaggregation of overall participant figures was possible by target group, differentiating between the education status, labour market position and disadvantaged status of the participants (see Table 31). In terms of educational status, where the target group identification was possible, over 3.5 million students (including various groups defined in the indicators such as young people, pupils, students in the general education), 1.7 million VET students (including apprentices) and nearly 700,000 HE staff (including master students, doctoral and post-doctoral candidates, HE staff, R7D staff) and 1.4 million education system staff were supported by the ESF by end The numbers of supported students were particularly high in the Czech Republic, Germany and Greece. The numbers of supported VET students were particularly high in Germany, reflecting the focus of ESF HC activity on the apprenticeship systems. In relation the HE staff, the numbers were particularly high in Portugal, followed by Poland. In addition, the numbers of education system staff supported were high in Italy, followed by Poland, Austria and Romania. September

61 Table 31. Number of student, VET student, HE staff and education system staff supported in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (cumulative end 2013) MS Students MS VET students MS HE staff MS Education staff BG 575,320 CY 107 AT 1,233 AT 156,119 CZ 1,038,960 DE 1,670,991 BG 4,200 BG 21,526 DE 420,993 FR 3,845 CZ 69,351 CY 7,075 FR 22,192 LV 58,659 DE 10,227 CZ 114,590 GR 364,305 PT 11,418 EE 19,007 DE 11,928 HU 45,037 FR 78 EE 27,565 IE 249,997 GR 6,846 GR 120,138 LT 61,315 LT 9,579 HU 36,533 PL 64,625 LU 8,246 IT 512,226 PT 14,750 LV 8,300 LT 51,188 UK 687,714 MT 3,239 LV 56,899 PL 126,671 PL 175,556 PT 415,868 PT 16,020 RO 5,184 RO 152,794 SI 2,796 SK 3,440 UK 2,120 UK 2,064 Grand Total 3,545,208 Grand Total 1,745,020 Grand Total 692,945 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. Grand Total 1,465,661 In relation to the labour market status of the participants, over 2.3 million participants were employed, 4.7 million unemployed and over 14,000 staff in managerial positions were also supported by the ESF HC investment (see Table 32). Table 32. Number of participants by labour market status in the PAs and subpriorities assigned to HC (cumulative end 2013) MS Employed MS Unemployed MS Managers AT 275,437 DE 4,679 AT 1,650 BE 2,304 FR 67,381 DE 2,539 DE 340,588 UK 4,680,263 PL 10,480 FR 20,294 UK 194 HU 4,711 LV 47,024 PL 618,768 PT 1,005,917 SI 50,468 Total 2,365,511 Total 4,752,323 Total 14,863 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. September

62 In terms of the disadvantaged status, where such information could be clearly identified, ESF HC investment supported around 600,000 disadvantaged people and nearly 590,000 low skilled people (see Table 33). Table 33. Number of participants by disadvantaged status in the PAs and subpriorities assigned to HC (cumulative end 2013) MS Disadvantaged MS Low skilled MS Minority, older people DE 36,591 DE 972 DE 3,646 IT 485,351 FR 2,874 EE 266 LT 37,082 IT 162,301 UK 260 LV 23,128 PL 281,794 PT 5,500 PT 22,016 SK 1,067 UK 116,416 UK 386 Total 589,105 Grand Total 586,373 Grand Total 4,172 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data Outputs for entities based on OP specific indicators The following key common categories of outputs for entities have been identified in the analysis of SFC OP data: Number of enterprises supported, Number of educational institutions supported, Number of other organisations supported (NGOs, social partners), Number of networks created. Each of these output indicator types is analysed in turn below. Overall, over 2.3 million entities have received ESF support under the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the human capital policy field. In the 15 Member States with such indicators, nearly 2 million enterprises were supported by the ESF by end 2013 (see Table 34). This ranged from below 2,000 enterprises in Cyprus and the Czech Republic to over 500,000 enterprises in Poland. Table 34. Number of enterprises supported in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (cumulative end 2013) MS Number of enterprises supported AT 12,052 CY 1,588 CZ 1,554 DE 464,831 EE 12,069 ES 423,599 FR 1,689 HU 3,356 IT 295,499 MT 3,068 PL 522,475 PT 34,722 SE 199,916 September

63 SI 18,458 UK 2,730 Total 1,997,606 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. In the 12 Member States with such indicators, over 240,000 educational institutions were supported by the ESF by end 2013 (see Table 35). This ranged from around 200 educational institutions in Lithuania to over 150,000 educational institutions in Italy. Table 35. Number of education institutions supported in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (cumulative end 2013) MS Number of education institutions supported BG 4,374 DE 12,169 EE 492 GR 1,468 HU 1,428 IT 153,488 LT 252 PL 53,158 PT 3,376 RO 4,807 SI 6,301 UK 411 Total 241,724 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. In the seven Member States with such indicators, nearly 50,000 other organisations (NGOs, social partners, public administrations) were supported by the ESF by end 2013 (see Table 36). This ranged from around 50 organisations in Portugal to over 50,000 organisations in Denmark. Table 36. Number of organisations supported in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (cumulative end 2013) MS Number of organisations supported BE 561 CZ 5,460 DK 35,460 ES 7,259 IT 158 PL 637 PT 54 Total 49,589 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. In the four Member States with such indicators, more than 16,000 networks were created as a result of the ESF by end 2013 (see Table 37). This achievement is dominated by a high number of created networks in Poland. September

64 Table 37. Number of networks created in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (cumulative end 2013) MS Number of networks created DE 2,278 ES 2,080 IT 603 PL 12,005 SK 10 Total 16,976 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data Outputs for products based on OP specific indicators The following key common categories of outputs for products have been identified in the analysis of SFC OP data: Number of qualifications / courses / training programmes / standards developed, Number of activities, Number of projects supported. Each of these output indicator types is analysed in turn below. Overall, over 2.8 million products were created with the ESF support under the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to the human capital policy field. In the 10 Member States with such indicators, nearly 420,000 qualifications / courses / training programmes / standards were developed with the ESF support by end 2013 (see Table 38Table 34). This ranged from below 100 qualifications in Cyprus to over 80,000 in Germany. Table 38. Number of qualifications, courses, programmes, standards developed in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (cumulative end 2013) MS Number of qualifications CZ 252,911 CY 67 DE 86,640 EE 3,113 GR 32,954 HU 2,269 LV 860 PL 1,066 RO 371 SI 631 SK 36,824 Total 417,706 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. In nine Member States with such indicators, over 2.3 million activities (other than qualifications/courses/programmes) were developed with the ESF support by end 2013 (see Table 39). This ranged from below 22 activities in Cyprus to over 2 million in Italy. September

65 Table 39. Number of activities developed in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (cumulative end 2013) MS Number of activities DE 264,580 ES 17,298 FR 1,571 GR 1,254 IT 2,001,466 MT 22 PL 5,848 PT 45,832 UK 429 Total 2,338,300 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. 4.4 Analysis of results indicators (participants, entities, products and systems) The analysis considered results as classified in the OPs, even though the results identified as such sometimes related to outputs, hence, some types of results indicators (e.g. number of participants in specific HC activities) were not considered in the analysis of results Results for participants The following key common categories of participant results have been identified in the analysis of SFC OP data: Participants who achieved employment after ESF activity (number and %) Participants who obtained a qualification (number and %) Participants who obtained a positive result - other than qualification and employment (number and %). The assessment of the key results from ESF human capital investment was challenging. Firstly, over 1,300 relevant indicators have been defined by the Member States across the priority axes and actions assigned to ESF human capital investment. Based on their definition and the evaluators judgement, these were classified and aggregated into three common categories of result indicators 23. Nevertheless, such aggregation is partial. 107 indicators were left out of the aggregation due to their nature and widely differing definitions prevented an aggregation beyond one Operational Programme (see Volume II, Annex II for a full description of the methodological approach and the list of excluded indicators). The second complication arose because of the different way of measuring the results between the Member States. In addition to measuring the number of participants who obtained the positive results, 14 Member States measured the success rates (the proportion of participants achieving the positive results, see Volume II Annex 6 for the success rates in these Member States). In these cases, the rates were converted into numbers using the number of total Priority Axis participants. Merging the two types of measurement is methodologically challenging and requires to be treated with caution. Especially the comparison of results achieved with 23 These are: Participants who achieved employment after ESF activity (number and %) Participants who obtained a qualification (number and %) Participants who obtained a positive result - other than qualification and employment (number and %). September

66 the 49.7 million of participations registered by end 2013 is problematic due to the inclusion of indirect participants with no direct results in the total participations figure. Using this method of estimation, the overall number of results 24 for the participants in ESF human capital investment (covering people gaining or maintaining a job, obtaining a qualification or acquiring new skills and competences) at end of 2013, is estimated to be 21 million (see Table 40). 25 The most frequent type of results was measured in the category other positive results (54%), followed by 27% of results for participants achieving employment and 18% of results achieving a qualification. The results broken down by the objective of the OP showed a similar distribution in the Convergence and Multi Objective OPs. In the Competitiveness OPs, however, the achievement of employment was the most frequent type of result. Table 40. The aggregated results for participants Category results of Number of results % Convergence OPs % Competiti veness % Multi Objective OPs % Participants who achieved employment 5,937,357 28% 2,098,831 32% 2,725,208 40% 1,113,317 15% Participants obtaining a qualification 3,760,643 18% 1,116,360 17% 1,690,938 25% 953,344 13% Participants obtaining other positive results (skills, new 11,306,272 competences) 54% 3,323,898 51% 2,472,566 36% 5,509,808 73% Total 21,004, % 6,539, % 6,888, % 7,576, % Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. The numbers of results do not mean that other ESF participants failed to achieve any positive results (although it is also clear that participants did leave the ESF without any positive results). The results measured at the end of 2013 are likely to increase in the subsequent years. This is because participants who started prior to 2013 (and are already counted in the reported participation figures) will complete the ESF activities and are likely to achieve a number of positive results in the future. Indeed, the results measured at the end of 2013 are significantly higher compared to the results measured at the end of When comparing the achievement of results and the total number of participants (see Table 41), the rate was highest in the competitiveness OPs (54%), followed by convergence OPs (39%) and the multi-objective OPs (37%). However, such direct comparisons need to be treated with caution as the total number of participants includes also indirect participants in the ESF human capital interventions who cannot be expected to achieve results counted in the ESF monitoring system. 24 It is also possible that more than one result could be generated from a single intervention for a participant. In the absence of monitoring data on unique participants this aspect however cannot be captured. 25 These results are higher compared the results reported in the ESF ex-post evaluation, where the focus was on the results of obtaining a formal qualification. In the fields approximately relating to the human capital 11.1 million results of obtaining a qualification were observed (5.6 million in the field of Adaptability, 3.7 million in the field of LLL and 1.8 million in the field of ICT). The total number of participants in the three areas was noted to be 39 million, see LSE et al (2010). 26 ESF Expert Evaluation Network (2014) reported 1.2 million of results in the human capital policy field by end September

67 Table 41. The aggregated results for participants by OP objective OP Objective Total number of participants - entering Total number of results Total results / participants Competitiveness 12,653,410 6,888,712 54% Convergence 16,653,088 6,539,090 39% Multi-objective 20,419,641 7,576,470 37% Total 49,757,057 21,004,272 42% Source: ICF analysis of SFC data Results for entities The following key common categories of results for entities (businesses and education institutions) have been identified in the analysis of SFC OP data: Businesses created (number), Business completing the ESF activity / implementing the intended activity (such as innovation, new organisational models, career management systems) (number and %), Rate of business coverage the proportion of the enterprises supported by ESF in the total number of enterprises in the territory (%), Educational institutions /other organisations completing the ESF activity 27 / implementing the intended activity (such as new quality standards, evaluation procedures) (number and %), Rate of education institution coverage the proportion of the educational institutions /other organisations supported by ESF in the total number of educational institutions /other organisations in the territory (%). Each of these result indicators for entities categories is analysed in turn. 28 In the four Member States with relevant result indicators, over 100,000 new businesses were created after the ESF activity (see Table 42). Table 42. Businesses created in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (number, cumulative end 2013) MS Number of businesses created BE 307 DE 23,647 ES 82,736 PT 24 Total 106,714 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. In the six Member States with relevant result indicators, over 190,000 businesses completed the ESF activities or adopted the intended changes in the enterprises (such as offering training positions for the first time, participating in the innovation networks, implementing new organisational models) (see Table 43). The proportion of businesses completing the activity averaged around 18 % in the four Member States with such indicators. 27 Although such types of indicators could be considered to define more outputs of the ESF activities, they have been considered as results due to the result definitions in the OPs. 28 It is important to note that there is potentially double-counting in relation to the results obtained for businesses, educational institutions and other organisations due to the lack of unique identifiers in the monitoring systems. September

68 Table 43. Businesses completing the ESF activities / implementing the intended changes in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (number and %, cumulative end 2013) MS Number of businesses completing the activity MS Proportion of businesses completing the activity CY 1,311 DE 16 DE 48,190 EE 43 DK 404 FR 3 ES 35,618 IT 0.5 PT 7,495 UK 25 Total 193,043 Average 18 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. In three Member States, the results indicators also measured the ESF coverage rate defined as the proportion of businesses reached by the ESF in the total number of the enterprises in the territory (see Table 44). The coverage rate averaged 8 %, ranging from 1 % in Italy to 15 % in Germany. Table 44. Coverage rate of businesses in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (number and %, cumulative end 2013) MS Average coverage rate DE 15.3 IT 1.3 PL 7.7 Average 8.1 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. In three Member States with relevant result indicators, over 3,000 education institutions completed the ESF activities or adopted the intended changes in the enterprises (such as applying new evaluation techniques, newly developed quality standards) (see Table 45). The proportion of educational institutions /other organisations completing the activity averaged around 70 % in the five Member States with such indicators. Table 45. Educational institutions and other organisations completing the ESF activities / implementing the intended changes in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (number and %, cumulative end 2013) MS Number of education institutions completing GR 533 EE 98 HU 2880 GR 63 PT 3 IT 42 Total 3416 LV 100 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. MS SK 100 Average 69 Proportion of education institutions completing In three Member States, the results indicators also measured the ESF coverage rate of the educational institutions in the territory (see Table 46). The coverage rate averaged 36 %, ranging from 13 % in Italy to 38 % in Poland. September

69 Table 46. Coverage rate of educational institutions in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (%, cumulative end 2013) MS Average coverage rate IT 13 PL 39 RO 39 Average 36 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data Results for products The following key common categories of results for products have been identified in the analysis of SFC OP data: New / innovative products created (number and %) Successful products created (number and %). Each of these types of the result indicator for products is analysed in turn. In the six Member States with relevant result indicators, over 26,000 new and/or innovative products were created after the ESF activity (see Table 42). The proportion of new products created averaged around 56 % in the four Member States with such indicators. Table 47. New products created in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (number and %, cumulative end 2013) MS Number of new products MS BE 88 EE 61 DE 150 GR 35 ES 23,802 PL 82 FR 577 SI 71 GR 1 UK 1,993 Total 26,611 Average 56 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data. Proportion of new products In the four Member States with relevant result indicators, nearly 70,000 successful products were created after the ESF activity (see Table 48). Successful products are defined in varied way, referring to products after which intended changes have been implemented or which or number of the intended activities completed. The proportion of successful products created averaged around 30 % in the four Member States with such indicators. Table 48. Successful products created in the PAs and sub-priorities assigned to HC (number and %, cumulative end 2013) MS Number of successful products CY 1 BE 2 FR 52,720 DE 19 HU 15,593 GR 23 SI 586 PL 59 Total 68,900 Average 28 MS Proportion of successful products September

70 Source: ICF analysis of SFC data Results for systems Finally, the results available for systemic level impact were analysed on the basis of SFC data. In total, around 30 indicators were identified as relating to the system level impact (and which had a data value for the period). Here, the result indicators were challenging to aggregate across the Member States, as the key groups of indicators related to the macro level developments in LLL, employment, R&D or the apprenticeship gap. In a sense, such macro-level indicators could be considered for all Member States, and not just those OPs which have defined such result indicators (such analysis was undertaken in section 2). Furthermore, a number of system level indicators apply only to one Member States (e.g. the coverage ratio in Germany or the extent of mobility in Italy) making aggregation across the Member States impossible. Finally, some indicators which could be assigned to the same category were of such different nature as to make their aggregation incorrect (e.g. in relation to employment category, some OPs defined this as the employment rate in the general population, whereas others as the strengthening of particular types of employment policies). For these reasons, the system level indicators were not aggregated, with their full list provided in Annex 5 to this Volume The coverage rates of target groups in the 27 Member States The ESF human capital investment also reached a significant proportion of the key target groups. The coverage rates were calculated by comparing the annual average of ESF participants in a certain target group category with the overall target group population in the Member State (based on Eurostat data). Looking at the coverage rates by educational level, the highest coverage rates appear to be for ESF participants at ISCED level 4 (Post-secondary non tertiary education). The ESF human capital investment reached 21 % of students at ISCED level 4 in the programming period (annual average), ranging from above 100 % per year in France, Portugal and Slovenia to below 1% in Belgium and the Netherlands (see Figure 28). This was followed by the ESF human capital investment reaching 8 % of students at ISCED level 3 in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 42 % per year in Portugal to 1% in Cyprus and Denmark. Similarly important was that across the EU-27, the ESF human capital investment reached 6 % of students at ISCED levels 1 and 2 in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 60 % per year in the Czech Republic to below 1% in Cyprus, Denmark and Sweden. Finally, the ESF human capital investment reached 6 % of students at ISCED levels 5 and 6 in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 58 % per year in Estonia to below 1% in Denmark. Figure 28. The annual average coverage rate of ESF participants by ISCED education level status September

71 AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU-27 AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU % 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% ISCED 1+2 ESF ISCED 3 ESF ISCED 4 ESF ISCED 5+6 Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data (Distribution of pupils/ Students by level [educ_ilev]). In relation to the different age groups, across the EU-27, the ESF human capital investment reached 4% of young people (15-24) in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 29 % per year in Estonia to below 1% in Cyprus and Sweden. The coverage rate of older people (55-64) was lower, at 1 % at the EU-27 level, with highs of 4-5% in Estonia, Portugal and Slovenia. Figure 29. The annual average coverage rate of ESF young and older participants 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% ESF annual coverage rate ESF annual coverage rate Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data (Population 1 January by five years age group and sex [demo_pjangroup]) Across the EU-27, the ESF human capital investment reached 1% of the employed people in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 11 % per year in Portugal to below 1% in Bulgaria, Cyprus and Denmark. September

72 AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU-27 PT EE SI CZ HU MT PL ES EL AT NL LT FI LU LV EU-27 IT SK SE RO UK BE DE FR CY BG DK Figure 30. The annual average coverage rate of ESF employed participants 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: ICF analysis of SFC data, Eurostat (Employment (main characteristics and rates) - annual averages [lfsi_emp_a]). However, for the unemployed the coverage rate was higher. Across the EU-27, the ESF human capital investment reached 3% of the unemployed people in the programming period (annual average), ranging from 42% per year in Portugal to below 1% in eight Member States. The coverage rate for long-term unemployed was slightly lower at 2 %, ranging from 27 % in Portugal to below 1 % in 14 Member States. Figure 31. The annual average coverage rate of ESF unemployed and long-term unemployed participants 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% ESF annual unemployed coverage rate ESF LTU coverage rate Source: ICF analysis of SFC data, Eurostat (Unemployment by sex, age and duration of unemployment (1 000) [lfsa_ugad]). Considering certain disadvantaged groups, across the EU-27, the ESF human capital investment reached 3 % of the disabled people and 1 % of the migrant population in the programming period (annual average), with particularly high coverage rates for in the Czech Republic (for migrants), Greece (for disabled) and Italy (for disabled). September

73 AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU-27 Figure 32. The annual average coverage rate of ESF migrant and disabled participants 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Disabled coverage rate Migrant coverage rate Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data (Population by sex, age and disability status [hlth_dpeh005] and Population by sex, age, nationality and labour status (1 000) [lfsa_pganws]). September

74 4.5 The socio-economic impact of the ESF human capital investment The socio-economic impact of the ESF human capital investment has occurred at micro, meso and macro levels The micro level socio-economic impacts At the micro level of individual participants, significant achievements in the further development of individuals human capital were observed both across the 27 EU Member States and the 87 in-depth interventions (see section 4.2.3). It is at this level that the socio-economic impacts are most pronounced. By the end of 2013, 21 million results have been obtained by participants in the ESF human capital investment. This is a minimum achievement as some result indicators could not be aggregated and is also likely to increase as the ESF delivery is finalised in the period. The most frequent type of results was measured in the category other positive results (54%), followed by 27% of results for participants achieving employment and 18% of results achieving a qualification. Quantitative surveys on the extent to which these immediate results of the ESF investment were sustained in the medium and long term were generally missing, but the available qualitative evidence available indicated a considerable variety in the legacy of the interventions reviewed for individuals. The key types of sustainable results observed were continuing positive employment results, lasting improvements in skills and competences and the continued use of the products developed with the ESF support. Importantly, the ESF human capital investment also reached a significant proportion of the key target groups in the EU s population: Across the range of education attainment spectrum: 21 % of students at ISCED level 4, followed by 8 % of students at ISCED level 3, 6 % of students at ISCED levels 1 and 2 and 6 % of students at ISCED levels 5 and 6. 4% of young people (15-24) and 1% of older people (55-64) 1% of the employed people, 3% of the unemployed people and 2% of the longterm unemployed 3 % of the disabled people and 1 % of the migrant population in the EU The meso level socio-economic impacts At the intermediate level of education and training system stakeholders, a number of improvements in the system level capacities to deliver better quality education and training activities were supported by the ESF (see sections and 4.7.5). Hence, a considerable impact of ESF human capital at this level can be discerned and identified. The ESF human capital investment increased the scope of mainstream services provided by the key education, training and employment institutions, and also increased the scope of public investments for people affected by the crisis by supplementing the limited national budgets for the implementation of national human capital policies. In addition, ESF HC investment was used to test and implement innovative activities across the Union. It provided financing to the development of pilot and seed activities, changing the modes, practices, tools and methods of delivery of teaching and learning and mainstreaming activities into the daily practices of education providers. Finally, the impacts at the meso level were also manifested in interventions where a new organisation and method of delivery supported by the ESF was important for the development of partnerships between students/pupils, teachers, tutors and employers. New models for delivering services were also funded in interventions September

75 through the delivery of part time training and personalised approaches that combined open and distance education The macro level socio-economic impacts The macro level impact would be observed when the ESF investment had an influence on addressing the key high level human capital challenges in the Member States. At this macro level, the social and economic impact of the ESF human capital investment has been limited. 29 However, it also needs to be borne in mind that the macro level socio-economic impact is the most difficult to evidence and a sophisticated macro modelling of such impacts should be considered to be developed in the future. The key human capital development trends (as described in section 2.1) show no or limited correlation with the share of ESF human capital investment in the national context. Table 49 summarises the changes in the indicators values between 2007 and 2013 and the average annual share of ESF in national education and training expenditure. However, there have been many other influences on these indicators and trends other than ESF expenditure, including principally the differential impact of the recession across member states and on different sub-groups of the population. Table 49. Share of ESF funding in national expenditure and change in key human capital indicators 29 Similarly, the ex-post evaluation of the ESF period found little socio-economic impact at the macro level, see LSE et al (2010). September

76 Old MS MS particularly affected by crisis New MS Av. annual share of ESF in nat. expenditure Extent of ESL Unemployment of Young Employment of Low Skilled HE attainment Participation in LLL Expenditure in R&D 2007 to to to to to to to 2013 BG 1% CY 1% CZ 3% EE 3% HU 2% LT 2% MT 1% PL 3% RO 1% SI 4% SK 1% LV 3% EL ES 1% IE 1% IT 1% PT 10% AT 0% BE 0% DE 1% DK 0% FI 1% FR 0% LU 1% NL 0% SE 0% UK 0% Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data. Lowest negative value Highest positive value Among all indicators describing human capital in Europe, only the change in the number of early school leavers is correlated with the average annual share of ESF funding within the national education and training expenditure, but this correlation is dependent on the position for one MS. At the outset of the programming period, the number of young people leaving education prematurely was higher in old Member States. These countries made more significant progress in combating early school leaving. The performance of Portugal, in which ESF constitutes the highest share in national annual expenditure for education and training, has crucial impact on the value of this correlation. If we exclude this outlier, the correlation becomes insignificant and the slope of regression line changes direction showing that countries with higher share of ESF in national education and training expenditure (mostly new Member States) made a smaller progress in reducing the number of early school leavers (see Figure 33). September

77 Figure 33. Early school leavers period change correlation with ESF expenditure 30 Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data (tsdsc410). The unemployment of young people increased in a majority of Member States (the exceptions are Germany and Malta) and there is no significant correlation between the ESF expenditure and the developments of this indicator. There is a potential confounding factor here as it is possible that the share of ESF HC expenditure was increased in some Member States because of a relatively large increase in youth unemployment. The differences between new and old Member States are also not statistically significant, although the higher increase in the number of unemployed young people was in the new Member States. In the six Member States particularly affected by the crisis (see Figure 34), the number of young unemployed increased by 23 p.p. comparing to 7 p.p. in the remaining countries. The share of ESF funding in these countries varied from 0.7 % in Spain where the number of young unemployed increased by 37.4 p.p., to 10.4 % in Portugal with a 16.6 p.p. rise of value of the indicator. Figure 34. Unemployment of young people period change correlation with ESF expenditure Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data ([une_rt_a]). During the same period, the employment rate of the low skilled decreased in the majority of Member States. This does not seem to be correlated with ESF funding (see Figure 35). Again the direction of regression slope depends on the performance of 30 EU 12: BG, CY, CZ, EE, HU, LT, MT, PL, RO, SI, SK, LV. EU 15: EL, ES, IE, IT, PT, AT, BE, DE, DK, FI, FR, LU, NL, SE, UK. EU 6 (countries particularly affected by crisis): LV, EL, ES, IE, IT, PT. EU 21: BG, CY, CZ, EE, HU, LT, MT, PL, RO, SI, SK, AT, BE, DE, DK, FI, FR, LU, NL, SE, UK. September

78 Portugal were ESF constitutes a significant share of annual national expenditure in education and training. Similarly to the previous indicator, the situation deteriorated more in new Member States where in 2013 on average 6.3 pp less low skilled people were employed. Figure 35. Employment of low skilled period change correlation with ESF expenditure Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data (lfsa_ergaed). Between 2007 and 2013 the difference between old and new Member States in the share of adults participating in lifelong learning increased but the changes observed are not correlated with the significance of the ESF spending in the national expenditure (see Figure 36). Figure 36. Participation in LLL period change correlation with ESF expenditure Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data ([trng_lfs_01). Participation in higher education increased in both new and old Member States, but again a significant correlation with the share of ESF in national expenditure was not detected (see Figure 37). September

79 Figure 37. HE attainment period change correlation with ESF expenditure Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data (edat_lfse_07). There are no clear patterns between the increases of R&D spending and share of ESF in the national education and training expenditure (see Figure 38). Figure 38. Expenditure on R&D (% GDP) period change correlation with the ESF expenditure Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data (rd_e_gerdtot). Throughout the programing period the gap between new and old Member States decreased in the majority of human capital related indicators. It is difficult to attribute this change to ESF investments since more significant progress in a reduction of the number of early school leavers and the rise in the share of adults participating in lifelong learning was made in the old Members States where the ESF funding constituted a smaller share of annual education and training expenditure (see Figure 39). September

80 Figure 39. Gap between new and old Member States in 2007 and Extent of Early School leaving Employment of Low Skilled HE attainment Unemployment of Young People Participation in LLL Expenditure in R&D EU 12 EU 15 Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data. Finally, the indicators above were used to create one composite indictor of human capital changes in Member States (see Figure 40). The countries performance below or above EU 27 average in the key human capital indicators was not correlated with the share of ESF within the national educational and training budget. For example, the share of ESF funding within the annual national budget was similar in Malta, which performed better than the EU average, as well as in Bulgaria and Italy, where the progress was below the European average. September

81 Figure 40. Performance in key human capital indicators and significance of ESF in national education and training budget Source: ICF analysis of SFC and Eurostat data. Based on the Members States performance between 2007 and 2013 one composite human capital indicator was created. First, the selected variables were reviewed in terms on data availability in order to impute missing data or exclude variables without complete data sets. Later in order to normalise data the indicators above (or equal) and below EU 27 mean were given values 1 or -1 respectively. The composite indicator is a sum of normalised values of selected and reviewed indicators. The apparently limited ESF macro level impact is probably due to the variations in key human capital indicators resulting from factors such as improved productivity driving the economic growth, better matching between the labour supply and demand, or improved employment rates. These are influenced by many other factors besides the ESF investment. The ESF impact can be assessed effectively only within a macro modelling analysis. In addition, the significance of the ESF human capital investment was, on average, too limited in the national contexts to realistically expect a measurable macro level impact in the key socio-economic indicators. On average, across the 26 Member States for which data were available (except Greece), the ESF HC investment represented only 1% of the national education and training expenditure, e although this varied substantially from 0.2 % in the Netherlands and Sweden to 10 % in Portugal. September