Economic indicators Central Bank of Iceland October 2003

Transcription

1 Economic indicators Central Bank of Iceland October 23

2 Overview of economic indicators Change () Contribution 12-mo. ch. Latest Latest on prev. over 6 over 12 to infla- 1 year I Inflation and inflation expectations 1 period value month months 2 months tion () ago () Consumer price index... Core index 1 (CPI excl. agric. prod., vegetables, fruit and petrol) Core index 2 (core index 1 excl. public services)... Domestic goods excl. agricultural products and vegetables... Agricultural products and vegetables... Imported goods excl. alcohol and tobacco... - food and beverages... - cars and spare parts... - petrol... - imported goods excl. food and beverages... Housing... Public services... Private services... Groceries (perishable items)... Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct. 3 Oct Weighted import exchange rate index (Dec =1)... Sept Inflation premium on Treasury bonds 3... Employers inflation expectations... Public s inflation expectations... Expected Change Exp. 12-mo Expected annual Perceived Latest 12 mo. on prev. inflation inflation over next inflation in period inflation survey 1 year ago 2 yrs. 3 yrs. past 12 mo. Sept Sept Oct Index base periods: Consumer price index: May 1988=1; other price indices: March 1997=1. 2. Annualised inflation. 3. Inflation premium at 1, 2 and 3 years maturity, based on the differential between non-indexed and indexed Treasury bond yields. Value change 1 on From beginn. of year, Latest Latest 1 year previous previous Change on II Output and demand period value ago period year Value prev. year () 1 GDP (b.kr.)... National expenditure (b.kr.)... Private consumption (b.kr.)... Public consumption (b.kr.)... Gross fixed investment (b.kr.)... Exports (b.kr.)... Imports (b.kr.)... Turnover according to VAT statements (b.kr.) 2... Turnover in groceries stores (b.kr.)... Credit and debit card turnover (b.kr.) 2... Turnover of publicly listed companies on ICEX (b.kr.)... Cement sales (thous. tons)... Automobile registrations (number) Change between periods is presented in real terms. 2. Change in seasonally adjusted values. Value change on From beginn. of year Latest Latest 1 year previous previous Change on III Foreign trade and external economic conditions period value ago period year Value prev. year () Price of marine products in foreign currency (Jan.1999=1)... Price of aluminium, LME cash price $/t... Price of crude oil (Brent) $/b... Groundfish (1, tonnes)... Pelagics (1, tonnes)... Merchandise exports (b.kr.) marine products (b.kr.) aluminium (b.kr.) other industrial products (b.kr.) /Q /Q /Q /Q /Q /Q /Q May-June Sept Sept Jan.-June Sept Sept. 3 1, , August Oct. 3 1,73 1, ,1.7 Oct Sept Sept , August August August August Merchandise imports (b.kr.) 1... Merchandise trade balance (b.kr.) 1... Services exports (b.kr.) 1... Services imports (b.kr.) 1... Real effective exchange rate (relative CPI) (198=1)... August 3 August 3 23/Q2 23/Q2 23/Q Note: In the case of volumes and values, From beginning of year refers to cumulated figures to date, but in the case of prices or indices it refers to the average price or index. 1. Changes are calculated at constant exchange rates. 1

3 Value Change 1 from From beginn. of year 2 Latest Latest 1 year previous previous Change on IV Labour market and wages period value ago period year Average prev. year () Number of unemployed listed at employment agencies... Registered unemployment, s.a. ( of total estim. labour force) Unemployment rate, labour force survey (biannual)... Listed vacancies at employment agencies... New work permits issued... Work permits issued, total... Wage index (december 1988=1)... Real wages (wage index deflated by CPI)... Sept. 3 3,9 3, ,8.6 Sept /Q Sept Sept Sept , Sept Sept Change from previous period refers to change in the number of unemployed and change in the rate of unemployment; percentage changes otherwise. 2. Average from beginning of year except for work permits where the cumulated number of permits is shown. Change on previous year refers to change in the average number of unemployed and change in the unemployment rate; percentage changes otherwise. Value change on From beginn. of year Latest Latest 1 year previous previous Change on V Public finances period value ago period year Value prev. year () Treasury revenue balance (billion kr.)... - as of revenue... Net borrowing requirement (billion kr.)... - as of revenue... Treasury revenue (b.kr.)... - from VAT (b. kr.)... - from payroll & personal income tax withheld (b.kr.)... - from imports, alcohol, car ownership (b.kr.)... Treasury expenditures (b.kr.)... Sept Note: First four columns refer to month moving averages of monthly values, the last two to totals for current year to date. All changes are in real terms. Value change on From beginn. of year Latest Latest 1 year previous previous Aver- Change on VI Asset markets period value ago period year age 2 prev. year () ICEX-1 monthly average (Dec. 1997=1)... ICEX Main monthly average (Dec. 1997=1)... Turnover on Iceland Stock Exchange (ICEX), monthly (b.kr.) Residental housing price index, broad index 1 (Jan. 1999=1) Real residental housing prices, narrow index 1 (Jan. 1996=1) Price of long-term cod quota (kr./kg.)... Sept. 3 1, , In Greater Reykjavík Area. 2. Except for turnover which is cumulated to date. Value change on From beginn. of year Latest Latest 1 year previous previous Aver- Change on VII Financial markets period value ago period year age prev. year () Bank lending to domestic sector (b.kr.)... - adjusted for estimated indexation effects on inflationand exchange rate-linked loans (index)... - in real terms (January 1999=1)... Credit system total lending (b.kr.)... M3 (b.kr.)... Central Bank policy interest rate ()... Money market yield, 3-mo. () 1... Treasury bill yield, 3-mo. () 1... Treasury bill real yield, 3-mo., based on inflation premium () 1 Yield on Treasury notes ( yrs., RIKB 7 29) () 1... Yield on Treasury notes (1½ yrs., RIKB 13 17) () 1... Real yield on housing bonds (2 yrs., IBH 26 31) () 1... Real yield on housing bonds ( yrs., IBH 1 31) () 1... Real yield on Treasury bonds ( yrs., RIKS 1) () 1... Real yield on Treasury bonds (1 yrs., RIKS 1 11) () 1... Average bank lending rate, non-indexed loans () 1... Average bank lending rate, indexed loans () 1... Exchange rate index of króna (Dec =1) 1... June 3 3 Aug Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct , , All figures except for two last columns are based on -week averages. Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept. 3 1, , , Sept. 3 1, , , Sept Sept Aug Aug Aug Aug

4 I Inflation and inflation expectations Fig Consumer price inflation and core inflation 12-month change Core inflation 1: CPI less agric. products, vegetables, fruit and petrol Core inflation 2: Core inflation 1 less public services Inflation target Core inflation 1 Core inflation 2 N CPI Fig CPI by origin 12-month change Domestic goods excluding agricultural goods Housing Imported goods excl. tobacco and alcohol Other services N Fig Price of imported goods in the CPI and import-weighted exchange rate of the króna Period average = 1 Import-weighted exchange rate index (right-hand axis) Imported goods excl. alcohol & tobacco (left-hand axis) March 97 = Fig Inflation in Iceland and trading partner countries 12-month change in the HICP for all countries except national CPI inflation for USA, Switzerland and Japan Iceland Trading partner countries EEA Fig Food, groceries and petrol prices 12-month change Food Petrol Groceries N Fig Inflation expectations At month-end January 2 - Dec. 22 Daily observations January 1 - October 17, 23 General public s expectations (survey) Business expectations (survey) Inflation premium at 3½ yrs. Inflation premium Inflation preminum at yrs. at 1½ yrs. 1 2 J F M A M J J A S O 3

5 II Output and demand Fig Quarterly national accounts data Volume change from same quarter in previous year Exports Private consumption National income GDP Fig. 8 2 B.kr Turnover based on VAT statements Total turnover Data is seasonally adjusted and in real terms Domestic sector turnover S.a. S.a. Fig Nov. 21=1 Groceries turnover In real terms, deflated by the price of groceries in the CPI N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Fig Credit card and debit card turnover Change on same period in previous year, deflated using the CPI for domestic turnover and the exchange rate for turnover abroad Monthly turnover Accumulated turnover from beginning of year Fig. 11 Company turnover and profits January-June 22 and 23. Sample size: Fig Cement sales and automobile registrations 12-month change Automobile registrations Cement sales Increase in turnover * As ratio of turnover. EBITDA* After-tax profit* Financial expenses* Fig.13 7 B.kr Value of contracts in public tender and the ratio of value to estimated costs Quarterly weighted averages Value (left axis) Ratio (right axis) Fig.1 16 Index Consumer sentiment Consumer sentiment Expectations 6 months ahead Current economic situation MAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J AS

6 III Foreign trade and external economic conditions Fig Merchandise trade balance as of merchandise exports Moving 12-month average Excluding ships and aircraft Excluding ships and aircraft Total Fig Merchandise imports and exports Moving 12-month average at fixed exchange rates Exports Imports Fig Jan. 2=1 Merchandise exports by category Monthly export value, at fixed exchange rates Other industrial products Marine products Aluminium and ferro-silicon Fig B.kr Merchandise exports 3-month moving average, at fixed exchange rates Total Excluding ships and aircraft Fig Seasonally adjusted merchandise imports 3-month moving average, at fixed prices and exchange rates 16 B.kr. Excluding ships and aircraft Total Fig. 2 Merchandise trade in January-August Price developments Volume General Imported Marine imports consum. goods exports General exports General Imported Marine imports consum. goods exports General exports Fig Services account change on previous year at fixed exchange rates Services exports Services imports Fig B.kr. Trade balance Services balance Income balance Current account Net current transfer included in factor income

7 III Foreign trade and external economic conditions (cont.) Fig. 23 Monthly fish catch volume Demersal species Pelagic species Other Fig. 2 Fish catch January - September Thous. tons 2, 1,8 1,6 1, 1,2 1, Crustaceans Pelagic species Demersal species Marine export value January - August B.kr Fig. 2 Prices of marine exports and aluminium 11 In foreign currency, Jan = 1 $/tonne 11 Aluminium (right-hand axis) 1,7 1,6 Fig. 26 $/tonn 3 Crude oil and gasoline prices 2-2 Crude oil Europe (DTD Brent) (right-hand axis) $/barrel Forecast , , Total marine product prices (left-hand axis) Demersal species prices (left axis) * ,3 2 Gasoline NW Europe 9 (left-hand axis) 1,2 1 1,1 JMMJ SNJMMJ SNJMMJ SNJMMJ SNJMMJ SN *17/1 1. Forecast (quarterly), based on Rotterdam SWP prices for gasoline; futures for Brent crude oil. 2 1 Fig. 27 Commodity prices in international markets 199 = Base metals Food Fig. 28 Real exchange rate of the króna 1986:1-23:3 Quarterly data 198 = Relative CPI 7 6 All non-fuel commodities Relative ULC

8 IV Labour market and wages Fig Unemployment Percentage of labour force Seasonally adjusted unemployment Unemployment Fig. 3 Work permits and listed vacancies 3-month moving averages Number of permits/vacancies 8 7 Vacancies 6 Work permits, total New work permits Fig Number Number of employed persons Figures for are based on income tax returns but 23 figures are survey-based Fig. 32 Hours Average hours worked per week Quarterly figures begin as of 23 and are not comparable with earlier data 17 Tax returns 16 Seasonally adjusted Surveys A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N Fig. 33 Unemployment (survey-based) Quarterly figures begin as of 23 and are not comparable with earlier data of labour force A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N Fig Wage index and real wages 12-month change Real wages (wage index deflated by CPI) Wage index Fig. 3 Wages in the private sector excl. banks, wages in the public and banking sector and wage drift :1 = 1 Wage drift (right axis) Public sector and banks (left axis) Private sector excl. banks (left axis)

9 V Public finances Fig. 36 Treasury balance and borrowing requirement Cash basis, accumulated from beginning of year, of revenue 3. in January 2 Revenue balance 1 Fig Treasury revenues and expenditure Cash basis, 12-month percentage change Expenditure excl. interest Revenues -1-2 Net borrowing requirement Fig Tax revenues Inflation-adjusted change on previous year (-month averages) Value-added tax Payroll & personal income tax withheld Fig Treasury expenditures Inflation-adjusted change on previous year (-month averages) 3 Welfare, health and education Economic, commercial and labour affairs Imports, alcohol, car ownership General public services

10 VI Asset markets Fig. 31/12 97 = 1, 2, 1,8 1,6 1, 1,2 1, 8 The equity market Monthly turnover and daily equity prices on ICEX ICEX-1 ICEX-MAIN Total share turnover Latest: October B.kr Fig m. Greater Reykjavík Area, 3-mo. moving averages Jan. 96 ch. = mo. change in nominal price (left axis) Residential housing prices Price in real terms (right axis) Fig. 2 Commercial property prices in Greater Reykjavík Area Quarterly, inflation-adjusted prices in August = Size-weighted average Simple average Fig. 3 Housing Financing Fund: Value of granted loans and number of loan applications for new and renovated housing Jan. 99 = 1 Applications (right-hand axis) Loans, face value (left-hand axis) Loans, nominal value (left-hand axis) Number Fig. Price of long-term and short-term cod quota 1.3 ISK/kilo ISK/kilo 1.2 Long-term (left-hand axis) 1.1 Short-term (1 year) (right-hand axis) * *2/1 9

11 VII Financial markets Fig Credit growth Credit system lending, quarterly change on previous year Businesses Total Households Fig Growth of M3 and bank credit (excluding market securities) Credit, adjusted for inflation and exchange rate developments 12-month change Credit M3 Fig Jan. 2 = 1 Real growth of M3 and bank credit Credit M3 is seasonally adjusted M3 J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J Fig Base money and repurchase agreements with the Central Bank 12-month change between 3-month moving averages Outstanding repo stock (right-hand axis) Base money (left-hand axis) Fig. 9 The Central Bank repo rate and interbank interest rates 16. Weekly data Latest: October 17 REIBOR 1. 3-mo. 12. REIBOR O/N Policy rate (repo rate) Fig. Short-term interest rates and interest rate spread Weekly data Latest: October Real repo rate (repo yield in excess of inflation expectations at 3 ½ yrs.) Spread between domestic and foreign 3-mo. T-bill rates N Fig. 1 Long-term nominal Treasury bond yields Daily data Latest: October ½ yr. to maturity yrs. to maturity 8 3½ yrs. to maturity 7 6 J FMAMJ JA SO NDJ F MAM J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O Fig Latest The term structure of nominal interest rates October 17, 23 Money market Treasury securities 1 month ago 1 year ago Days to maturity year ago Latest 1 month ago Days to maturity 1

12 VII Financial markets (cont.) Fig Yields on indexed long-term bonds 1-year Treasury bonds Daily data Housing bonds Latest: October Fig. Non-indexed interest rates: average bank lending rates, the yield on T-notes and the policy rate Average prime rate on bank loans Central Bank policy interest rate Yield on Treasury notes Average interest rate on bank loans Fig. Indexed interest rates: average bank lending rates and real yield on housing bonds and T-bonds Average prime rate on bank loans Housing bond real yield Average interest rate on bank loans T-bond real yield Fig. 6 Interest rate spreads Between bank non-indexed prime rates and the policy rate; between bank indexed lending rates and real T-bond yield.. Spread between the average indexed bank lending rate. and real T-bond yield. (approx. 2 yrs.) Spread between the average bank non-indexed prime lending rate and the Central Bank policy rate Fig Indexed bank rates: lending rates and deposit rates Average bank indexed lending rates Mismunur bankavaxta og ávöxtunarkröfu Average bank indexed deposit (h. ás) rates (at yrs.) Spread between indexed lending and deposit rates Fig. 8 Nominal and real effective exchange rate of the króna Monthly averages 31/12 9 = = Exchange rate index of króna (left-hand axis) Real exchange rate (right-hand axis) N