26 Febuary Macro Overview. Landsbankinn Economic Research
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1 Febuary 8
2 Inflation Jan 8 Dec 7 Jan 7 CPI YoY..9.9 Contribution of individual components : Imp. goods excl. alcohol, tobacco and petrol Petrol... Housing..7.8 Domestic goods excl. agricultural products... Services... Other components.. -. Contribution of individual components MOM change Various measures of underlying inflation CPI CPI excl. housing Core inflation Core inflation - Forecast Market expectation survey Medium () - - j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d j 7 8 Imp. goods excl. alcohol, tobacco and petrol Petrol Housing Domestic goods excl. agricultural products Services Other components (Nov-7) Central Bank of Iceland (Nov-7) Inflation target... M M Y Y Nov-7 Annual rate after M and M Average rate next Y and Y Feb-8
3 Labour Force Survey Jan 8 Dec 7 Jan 7 Activity rate () Unemployment rate ()..9.9 Employment rate () Employed 9, 9, 8,7 Inactive,,, Unemployed 8,,9 7, Average working hours Source: Statistics Iceland thousand. Employed thousand. Unemployed Unemployment rate Original data M moving average 7 8 Original data M moving average 8 88 Activity rate Average working hours Original data M moving average 7 8 Original data M moving average Original data M moving average
4 Registered unemployment Jan 8 Dec 7 Jan 7 Total... Reykjavík area... Regional Iceland... Men...7 Women... Source: Department of Labour 8 Thousand Unemployment 7 Number at end of month (lhs.) Percentage of workforce 8 7 Number at end of month.... by duration > one year -M - M Capital region West Iceland Northwest Icel. East Icel. Southern Peninsula Westfjords Northeast South Icel... by age -9 years old -9 years old..by education..by residence Elementary school Vocational University degree Secondary school, various Matriculation
5 Gross Domestic Product 7Q 7Q Q YoY change... QoQ change (Seasonally adjusted) Contribution to growth Private consumption... Government consumption... Gross capital formation.. -. Changes in inventories... Net trade Source: Statistics Iceland Economic forecast (Nov ) Central Bank of Iceland (N ov 7) Statistics Iceland (Nov 7) Economic growth QOQ change () Contribution to growth Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 7 7 QoQ change (seasonally adjusted) YoY change Private consumption Government consumption Gross capital formation Changes in inventories Net trade GDP
6 Current account 7Q 7Q Q Current account Excluding DMBs underg. winding-up Goods account balance Service account balance Income account balance* DMBs underg. winding-up... *)excluding DMBs undergoing winding-up Source: Central Bank of Iceland Current account balance Trade in goods QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ 7 Exports Imports Trade in services QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ 7 Exports Imports Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Income account QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ 7 DMBs undergoing winding-up proceedings QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ 7 7 Receipts Expenditures Receipts Expenditures Good account balance Service account balance Income account balance * Excluding DMBs underg. winding-up *) excluding DMBs undergoing winding-up DMBs underg. winding-up Current account *) excluding DMBs undergoing winding-up procedings
7 Trade in goods Cumulative Jan '8 Dec '7 Jan '7 8 7 Exports, total Marine products Agricultural products..... Manufactoring products Other products Imports, total Food and beverages Industrial supplies..... Fuels and lubricants Capital goods..... Transport equipment Consumer goods n.e.s Goods n.e.s Balance of trade Constant exchange rate (Jan 8) Source: Statistics Iceland Trade in goods Balance of trade Constant exchange rate M moving average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Constant exchange rate 7 Cumulative balance 7 8
8 Tourism industry YOY Departures from Keflavík airport (Jan., thousund) 7. 9 Foreign payment card turnover (Jan, euro/visitors) 8 - Overnight stays in Hotels-foreigners (Des., thousnd) 7 Occupancy rate (Des., ) Source: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland, Icelandi Tourist Board Departures from Keflavík Airport Thousund visitors,,, Foreign payment card turnover euros 8 Departures fram Keflavik by nationality Thousund visitors Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan Per visitor M moving average Overnight stays in hotels thousund 8 Jan 8 Jan 7 7 Icelanders Foreigners Occupancy rate (rhs.) 8
9 Real estate market YOY ch. Housing price index (Jan) -.8 Rental price index (Jan) - 9. Turnover (Jan, ). -. Source: Register Iceland, Statistics Iceland 9 7 Jan. = Inflation adjusted MOM change Jan. = Home price index Index Condominium housing Detached housing Housing price index M moving average Index Condominium housing Detached housing Housing market turnover in greater Reykjavík area,,,, 8 7 Other real estate assets Detached housing Condominium housing No. of contracts (rhs.) Housing rental market Jan. = Rental price index Rent to price index 9
10 Issuer: The contents and form of this document were produced by employees of Landsbankinn Economic Research and are based on information available to the public when the analysis was compiled. Assessment of this information reflects the views of Economic Research s employees on the analysis date, which may change without notice. Neither Landsbankinn hf. nor its personnel can be held responsible for transactions based on the information and opinions expressed here. Attention should be drawn to the fact that Landsbankinn hf. may, at any time, have direct or indirect interests at stake either on its own behalf or through its subsidiaries or customers, for instance as an investor, creditor or service provider. Nonetheless, all analyses are prepared independently by and in accordance with the bank s rules on separation of activities accessible on the Landsbankinn website.
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