Development of Economy and Financial Markets of Kazakhstan

Transcription

1 Development of Economy and Financial Markets of Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan Macroeconomic development

2 GDP, real growth, % ,5 11,7 216,7223,8226,5 19,8 19,8 19,3 19,619,7 199, 179,7 18,9 124,6 136,8149,5163,9 19, real growth, % ,3 11, ,1 261,3 274,4 17,317,5 15,15, accumulated GDP growth (right) 212 II GDP per capita, USD II

3 External Sector Indicators (USD mln.) Q213 Current Account as % to GDP Exports of Goods and Services as % to GDP Imports of Goods and Services as % to GDP Direct Investment, net flows* as % to GDP International Reserves, stock at the end of period** in months of imports of goods and services National Fund, stock at the end of period *net flows means net acquisition of financial assets minus net incurrence of liabilities (FDI abroad minus FDI in Kazakhstan by investment direction); **data of international investment position by methodology of BPM655 5 USD bln. USD bln. Current Account 2,7 -,8 2,2 1,6 3,2 1,9 (1,1% to GDP) 15 (-3,8% to GDP) (8,2% to GDP) (4,5% to GDP) (8,% to GDP) (4,2% to GDP) ,9 9, 12,3 1, ,7 2, -,1 3-1,5-1,1-1,5-1,, -1,6, -,2, -1,4 -,2-4,3-1,7-4,2-6,4-7,4-6, Q28 1Q29 1Q21 1Q211 1Q212 1Q213 Trade balance International services Secondary income Primary income Current account (right scale) 2 $ Foreign direct investments Foreign in direct Kazakhstan investments (by investment direction) 8 117, ,2 16, , ,8 95, , 95,4 82,6 1 75,2 82, , ,6 71, , 59, , 7,3 31 6,2 21,1 27, 22,5 21,3 19,8 14,3 21,4 19, 22,2 19,1 23,5 6,1 6,6 5, ,7 4,4 14,3 3,5 13,2 3,6 11,6 13,9 14, 4,1 13,2 11,6 13,9 14, ,6 2,2 25 6,6 4,1 1Q28 1Q29 1Q21 1Q211 1Q212 1Q Q213 Gross FDI inflow Net FDI inflow Stocks of FDI for the end of period (right scale) Gross FDI inflow Net FDI inflow Stocks of of FDI for for the the end of of period (right scale) 6 % to GDP USD bln.

4 External debt of Kazakhstan 118,2 14, bln. USD 7 International Reserves and National Fund USD bln International reserves Jul.13 National Fund's assets in foreign currency 26 Aug

5 Exchange Rate of Tenge to USD Medium-term band Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 From February 28, 211 the National Bank switched to managed floating exchange rate regime 9 Real effective exchange rate of tenge % dec. jun.1 dec.1 jun.2 dec.2 jun.3 dec.3 jun.4 dec.4 jun.5 dec.5 jun.6 dec.6 jun.7 dec.7 jun.8 dec.8 jun.9 dec.9 jun.1 dec.1 jun.11 dec.11 jun.12 dec.12 jun.13 1

6 Banking system development Banks assets ,5 9,9 % to GDP ,1 11,3 59,5 45,8 36,4 25,1 3,3 2,3 16,9 74,1 68, 55,2 47, 46,1 47, I half

7 Bank capitalization (per bank) USD mln I half Deposit market trln.tenge Deposits Apr-7 Aug-7 Dec-7 Apr-8 Aug-8 Dec-8 Apr-9 Aug-9 Dec-9 Apr-1 Aug-1 Dec-1 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 in national currency in foreign currency 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % The structure of deposits 36,8 27,2 28,8 29,7 32,5 37,5 35,9 63,2 72,8 71,2 7,3 67,5 62,5 64,1 Dec.7 Dec.8 Dec.9 Dec.1 Dec.11 Dec.12 individuals legal entities The deposits structure of individuals Jun % 8% 36,9 41,3 55,9 44,5 42,1 39,2 39,1 6% 4% 63,1 58,7 2% 44,1 55,5 57,9 6,8 6,9 % Dec.7 Dec.8 Dec.1 Dec.1 Dec.11 Dec.12 Jun. 213 in national currency in foreign currency 14

8 Credit market 8 Credits to economy 1% 8% The structure of credits 25,5 31,3 29,1 27,9 26,7 28,7 3,5 7 6% trln. tenge Apr-7 Aug-7 Dec-7 Apr-8 Aug-8 Dec-8 Apr-9 Aug-9 Dec-9 Apr-1 Aug-1 Dec-1 Apr-11 Aug.11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 in national currency in foreign currency 4% 64,5 68,7 7,9 72,1 73,3 71,3 69,5 2% % Jun. 213 individuals legal entities 1% 8% 42,7 44,2 48,4 42,3 35,3 29,3 28,4 6% 4% 57,3 55,8 51,6 57,7 64,7 7,7 71,6 2% % Jun. 213 in foreign currency in national currency 15 Monetary policy

9 Monetary Policy The primary objective of the National Bank the maintenance of price stability Responsibilities: Formulation and implementation of monetary policy Providing of functioning of payment systems Implementation of currency regulation and currency control Contributing to financial stability 17 Annual Inflation in World prices 18. increase for food and oil products threefold decrease 12. % Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul

10 Inflation factors 15 1 % 5-5 Structure of Inflation 8,4% 18,7% 9,5% ,2% Devaluation of tenge 7,8% 7,4% 6,% ,8% Decrease in world prices Q213* external factors population's income structural factors Inflation expectations monetary factors * - for the period from the 2nd qtr. of 212 through the 1st qtr. of Monetary Policy Main instruments: Standing facilities Deposits Interest rate on 7-days deposits is equal to.5% Interest rate on 1-month deposits is equal to 1.% Credits The official refinancing rate is equal to 5.5% (from April 1, 213) Open market operations Operations on foreign exchange market Operations on secondary securities market Short-term notes (3, 6, 9 months) Minimal Reserve Requirements (from 13 November 212) On internal short-term liabilities 2.5% On internal long-term liabilities % On external short-term liabilities 6.% On external long-term liabilities 2.5% 2

11 213: New transmission mechanism of monetary policy Introduced in 212 Restore in 212 Are not implemented currently Monetary policy instruments Instruments to reduce systemic risks (financial stability) 21 Minimum Reserve Requirements KZT bln Aug-6 Oct-6 Dec-6 Feb-7 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Excessive reserve assets Reserve Assets Minimum Reserve Requirements 22

12 Money Supply % to the corresponding period of the previous year May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 5,3 1,4 RM M3 23