Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, June Jun. (%MoM) -0.3% -4.2% +1.3% (%) (%MoM)

Transcription

1 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, June Farm income increased due mainly to higher farm prices while farm production remained low. Manufacturing production expanded slightly from the previous year due mainly to low base effect and temporary factors. The service sector continued to expand, in line with continued growth in the tourism sector and a gradual growth in domestic demand. %YOY Nominal Farm Income H1 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun Jun Nominal farm income Agricultural production Agricultural price Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT Index sa ( 213 = ) Real Farm Income Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT Index sa ( 214 = ) 12 Export < 3% 3% < Export < 6% Export > 6% %MoM sa 11 9 Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Source: OIE calculated by BOT -.3% -4.2% +1.3% Index sa ( 214 = ) Other Manufacturing Indicators Electricity used in industry Import quantity of raw materials (3mma) Index of hours worked in manufacturing (3mma) Source: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT %MoM sa -1.% -.7% -1.3% (%YOY) Food & Beverages Vehicles Rubbers & Plastics IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Chemicals Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Petroleum HDD Others MPI Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Weight 11 P = Preliminary data Seasonally adjusted by BOT Source: Office of Industrial Economics H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun P JunP (%) Food & Beverages Vehicles Rubbers & Plastics IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Chemicals Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Petroleum HDD Others CAPU sa Weight 211 Capacity Utilization (sa) P = Preliminary data Seasonally adjusted by BOT Source: Office of Industrial Economics Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun P

2 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, June ( 213 = ) Service Sector Indicators Number of Foreign Tourists Sales in Trade Sectors Sales in Transportation Sectors Sales in Communication Sectors (RHS) Juristic Act and Right Registration Fee for Real Estate (RHS) Note: Sales from VAT collection, latest data estimated by BOT Source: Department of Tourism, The Revenue Department Department of Land 7 ( 213 = ) Other Service Sector Indicators Low Cost Airlines' Passengers International Airports' Passengers BTS Ridership (Sky Train) Nielsen's Fast Moving Consumer Goods Number of Thai Tourists Revenue of The Transport Co. Ltd Source: Airports of Thailand, Nielsen Company, The Tourism Authority of Thailand, The Transport Co. Ltd., Bangkok Mass Transit System, calculated by BOT New Mortgage Loans from Commercial Banks in Bangkok and Vicinity Area* Thousand units sa, 3mma 1 Low-rise residents Condominium Total * Seasonally adjusted by BOT 5,524 2,8 2,566 1 Newly Launched Properties in Bangkok and Vicinity Area Thousand units, 3mma 15 Low-rise residents Condominium Total 5, ,977 2, Source Agency for Real Estate Affairs AREA and calculated by BOT

3 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, June Public spending still played an important role in supporting the economy from both current and capital expenditure. Private consumption slightly decreased after an improvement in the previous month, meanwhile, household income and confidence remained fragile. Private investment stayed low and concentrated in certain sectors due to a gradual recovery of demand, both domestically and externally. (212 = ) (212 = ) Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index Source: The Nielsen company, Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary Data Million USD sa, 3mma 6, 5, Service Index* & Non-resident Spending Index (212 = ) 18 Non-resident spending index (RHS 16 Service index ก (212 = ) 135 Nielsen s FMCG index 125 Fuel index P (RHS) Imports of Capital Domestic Machinery Sales (RHS) Equipment Indicators 86,66 E Note: *Combination of 1) hotel and restaurant VAT and 2) transportation sales Million Baht sa, 3mma, 8, 4, 6, 3,77 3, 4, Note: E = Estimated Data Source: Custom Department, Revenue Department calculated by BOT (212 = ) 12 8 Durable Index and Semi-durable Index Unit sa, 3mma 8, 6, 4, 2, (212 = ) 15 Semi-durable index (RHS) Durable index Car Sales for Investment Private Consumption Indicators % YoY Equipment Indicators Source: Federation of Thai Industries, Revenue Department calculated by BOT 9 Q1 Q2 P May Jun P JunP Non-durable Index Semi-durable Index Durable Index Service Index E -.1 E (less) Tourist Spending Private Consumption Index Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary Data, E = Estimated Data 36,572

4 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, June 1, m 2, 9mma 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 5, Construction Indicators 4, Note: E = Estimated Data Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand Permitted Construction Area Construction Material Index (RHS) (21 = ) , Private Investment Indicators % YoY Q1 Q2 P May Jun P Jun P Permitted Construction Area (9mma) Construction Materials Index Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery Sales E 3.3 E Car Sales for Investment Private Investment Index Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted, 3 month moving average data P = Preliminary Data Source : Bank of Thailand Diffusion Index 6 MOC 5 UTCC (RHS) 4 3 Central Government Expenditure (excl. subsidies/grants and miscellaneous other expense) Billion Baht Average 211- Current Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht Consumer Confidence Index Capital Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Source: Comptroller General s Department and Bank of Thailand Diffusion Index Source: Ministry of Commerce (MOC), University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) Jun Billion Baht (21.4% YoY) Jun Billion Baht (16.8% YoY) Index (Unchanged = 5) BSI Source : Bank of Thailand Revenue 1/ () Expenditure 2/ () Budgetary B/L Business Sentiment Index Expected BSI (next 3 months) Billion Baht FY P FY P FY P Non-Budgetary B/L Cash B/L (CG) Primary B/L (CG) Net Financing Treasury B/L 99.4 Fiscal Position Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 May Jun Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Cash basis 2/ Exclude principal loan repayment Source Fiscal Policy Office Comptroller General s Department Bank of Thailand Sep

5 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, June Merchandise export growth turned positive due to gold exports and the low base effect of some export products last year. However, exports of several products continued to contract. Tourism sector expanded well although Ramadan caused the number of foreign tourists contracted from last month. Current account posted a surplus thanks to low level of imports. However, capital account registered a small deficit in accordance with Thai direct investment abroad. Diffusion index G3 Manufacturing PMI US Euro area Japan Asia s Manufacturing PMI Diffusion index 6 INDO KR TW HK SG Export Growth May = 17.5 Bn USD Jun = 18. Bn USD Ex.gold = 16.8 Bn USD Ex.gold = 17.2 Bn USD Agriculture Fishery Manufacturing Agro-manufacturing Electronics and Optical Appliances Electrical Appliances Automotive Machinery & Equipment Petroleum Related Total Source: ISM, Markit Economics Share P H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun Ex. Gold Ex. petroleum related %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value is recorded by BOP basis. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data Jun May = 14. Bn USD Ex.Gold = 13.5 Bn USD Consumer Raw material & Intermediate o/w Fuel o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel Capital Others Total ex. gold Source: Bloomberg, Markit Economics Import Growth Share Jun = 14.2 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 13.9 Bn USD P H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value is recorded by BOP basis. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data Jun ASEAN - CLMV China Japan USA EU (27) Hong Kong ex. Gold Middle East Australia ex. Gold Share Source: Custom Department Export to Major Countries P H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun Contr. ( 213 = ) Asian Export Performance Note: Thai export excluded gold. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by BOT KR MY CN PH TH TW INDO SG

6 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, June % Hotel Occupancy rate 214 Occupacy rate Occupacy rate (sa) Thousand persons 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Source: Department of Tourism Number of Foreign Tourists Number of Foreign tourists Number of Foreign tourists (sa) (RHS) Number 2,433,255 Growth 7.2 % YOY Current Account P Million USD 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, Service & Income Balance Trade Balance Current Account Net Financial Flows Million USD P P P H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun E YTD 1. Assets TDI - Equity Thai portfolio investment - Equity sec. investment - Debt sec. investment Loans Other Investments - Trade credits 2. Liabilities FDI - Equity Foreign Portfolio investment - Equity sec. investment - Debt sec. investment Loans Other Investments Source - Trade : Bank credits of Thailand E = Estimated data P = Preliminiary data Total Financial flows (1+2) Source : Bank of Thailand P = Preliminiary data E= Estimated data Million USD 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, Financial Account P Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Foreign Direct Investment Foreign Portfolio Investment Foreign Loans Feb Mar Apr May Jun Other Foreign Investment Thai Direct Investment Thai Portfolio Investment Thai Loans Other Thai Investment Net Financial Flows P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data Balance of Payments Billion USD P P P H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun E YTD Trade balance Exports (f.o.b.) Imports (f.o.b.) Services & Income Current Account Capital and Financial Account Government Central Bank ODCs Others Net Error & Omissions Overall Balance International Reserves Net Forward Position Source : Bank of Thailand E= Estimated data P = Preliminiary data E

7 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, June The increase in total corporate financing and household credit was similar to the previous month. New corporate financing was a result of increased equity while new business credit and debt financing slowed down from last month. In June, the Thai baht appreciated against the US dollar due to market expectations of the Fed to delay a rate hike. Commercial Bank Interest Rates* % p.a. Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 May month deposit rate Average of 4 largest banks Average of other banks MLR Average of 4 largest banks Average of other banks MRR Average of 4 largest banks Average of other banks End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, and Siam Commercial Bank Government Bond Yields As of 21 y 16 % p.a. 1D BRP 1M 2Y 5Y 1Y Mar-15 May Sep-15 Nov Mar-16 May and ThaiBMA Billion baht Total Corporate Financing Business credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA Mar-15 May Sep-15 Nov Mar-16 May-16 Note: Business credits and debt : change in outstanding (par) Equity : New issuance at par value, ThaiBMA, SET New Private Credit Extended by Other Depository Corporations Billion baht % MoM, SA % MoM change (RHS) Household Business Apr Oct Apr Apr Oct Apr % Loan to Deposit and B/E Ratio Commercial Bank Jun P % YoY 2 15 ODCs Loan Growth Credits to the business sector Credits to the household sector Total P = Preliminary Data Note: ODCs including commercial banks, finance companies, specialized financial institutions, saving cooperatives and money market mutual funds

8 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, June Exchange Rates Regional Exchange Rate Volatility Index (212=) NEER25 Appreciation USDTHB (RHS) 12 3-Dec Feb Mar Apr-16 2-Jun-16 3-Jun-16 Source: Reuters, Bank of Thailand 21 USDTHB = NEER25 = 16.5 USDTHB (reverse) % p.a. 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 3-Dec CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD TWD THB Feb Feb-16 Source: Reuters, Bank of Thailand 14-Mar Mar Apr Apr May-16 2-Jun-16 As of 21 y 16-Jun-16 3-Jun KRW IDR MYR SGD THB TWD INR PHP CNY -1.% Changes in Regional Currencies per USD -.5% -.7% June y (Data as of 21 y ) 1.6% 1.4% 2.4% 2.4% %MoM (Jun vs May-16) 3.4% 3.4% KRW IDR TWD INR THB PHP MYR CNY SGD -.4% -.6% -.1% -.3% -2% % 2% 4% -1% % 1% 2% Note: End-period data, + = Appreciation against USD Source: Reuters, Bank of Thailand.5%.4%.9%.7% 1.3% %MoM (21 vs Jun-16)

9 Q1-16 Q2-16 May-16 Jun-16 Q1-16 Q2-16 May-16 Jun-16 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, June Headline inflation slowed down slightly from the previous month owing to contracting raw food prices as drought conditions gradually alleviated. Meanwhile, core inflation was stable. Unemployment rate remained unchanged following signs of recovering employment in agriculture. External stability remained sufficiently resilient to withstand volatility in the global financial market Contribution to Headline Inflation Raw Food (15.51%) Energy (11.4%) Core Inflation (73.9%) ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Headline Inflation.38% 214 Source: Ministry of Finance calculated by BOT % Unemployment Rate Feb Mar Apr May Jun June 16 Unemployment rate 1. % Unemployment rate (sa) 1.1 % Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Data from 214 onward are based on the 21 Population and Housing Census Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO Percent sa, 3mma Billion USD Labor Market Tightness Ratio Job Openings/Unemployed person 5 Year Average (21 - ) Source: NSO, Department of Employment, Bank of Thailand External Debt Outstanding June P P Change Jun/May16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun E Total 1. General government 2. Central Bank* 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) 4. Other Sectors - Other Financial Corporations - Non Financial Corporations O/W Foreign Trade Credit 5. Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%) Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data Contribution to Core Inflation Rent (21.1%) 3. Other Goods and Services (54.3%) 2.5 Food and Bev. excl. Alcohol (24.6%) 2. ( ) Share in Core Inflation Source: Ministry of Finance calculated by BOT ( 213=) Employment Index Core Inflation.8% Total Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Trade Service Note: Data from 214 onward are based on the 21 Population and Housing Census Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT Billion USD 15 Public 11 Others ODC External Debt Source : Bank of Thailand Solvency Indicators External Stability Indicators External Stability Indicators Criteria Reserves/Short-term debt P P 3.3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun E Current Account / GDP (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. Debt / GDP (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. Debt / XGS 1/ (%) Debt Service Ratio (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. Liquidity Indicators Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time Gross Reserves / Imports 2/ > 3-4 times ST Debt / Total Debt (%) Note: XGS Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import (1-year average) Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data