Macroeconomic Assessment. 30 April 2015
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1 Macroeconomic Assessment 30 April
2 Source : Office of Agricultural Economics, calculated by Bank of Thailand Supply Side Policy Team Tel (%YoY) P = Preliminary Data H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Nominal Farm Income p Agricultural Production p Agricultural Price Index (2005 = 100) 250 Farm Income From Major Agricultural Products Nominal Farm Income Level (s.a.) %MoM, sa MoM growth (RHS) %YoY Change in Agricultural Price and Production Production Price
3 3 (%YOY) P = Preliminary data Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Weight 2000 H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 p Feb Mar p Food & Beverages Petroleum Textiles Apparels HDD IC & Semiconductors Vehicles Cement & Construction Chemicals Rubber & Plastic Products Electrical Appliances MPI MPI (sa) % from last period Source : Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Sectoral Analysis Team Tel
4 4 Capacity Utilization and Capacity Index H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 p Feb Mar p CAPU (%) CAPU sa (%) Capacity index (end period) % Index level sa 3mma, sa Capacity index (RHS) P = Preliminary data Source : Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Sectoral Analysis Team Tel
5 (%) Weight 2000 Capacity Utilization H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 p Feb Mar p Food & Beverages Petroleum Textiles Apparels HDD IC & Semiconductors Vehicles Cement & Construction Chemicals Rubbers & Plastics Electrical Appliances CAPU CAPU sa P = Preliminary data Source : Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Sectoral Analysis Team Tel
6 Tourism 6 P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar No. of tourists ( 000) 24,780 11,473 13,307 5,847 7,460 7,877 2,689 2,533 %YoY Occupancy rate (%) P = preliminary data No. of tourist ( 000) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000 No. of tourists Growth (RHS) %YoY Source : Department of Tourism BOP Analysis Team Tel
7 P = Preliminary data Private Consumption Index (PCI) (Seasonally adjusted, 2010=100) H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 P Feb Mar P PCI %YoY %MoM, %QoQ Index 120 PCI %YOY (RHS) %YoY Source : Bank of Thailand Macroeconomic Team Tel
8 8 Private Consumption Indicators (% change from same period last year) %YoY H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 P Feb Mar P Non-durables index Semi-durables index Durables index Services index n.a. 8.3 n.a. Tourist expenditure Note : P = Preliminary data Macroeconomic Team Tel
9 Index (2010 = 100) Private Investment Index (PII) (Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average) PII Index H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 P Feb Mar P PII %YoY %QoQ, %MoM %YoY (RHS) %YoY Source : Bank of Thailand Note: P = Preliminary data Apr Oct Apr Oct Macroeconomic Team Tel
10 Construction Machinery & Equipment Macroeconomic Team Tel Private Investment Indicators (% change from the same period last year) 10 % YoY H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 P Feb Mar P Construction Area Permitted (9m ma) E E Construction Materials Index Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery Sales n.a n.a. Car Sales (unit) Note: P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
11 Source : Bank of Thailand Economic Intelligence Team Tel Business Sentiment Index 11 H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar BSI Expected BSI Index (Unchanged = 50) 60 Jun-15 = Mar-15 = BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)
12 12 Government Revenue (by Collection Tax Base) Share FY Billion Baht P FY P Year Q4 Q1 Q2 Feb Mar 1. Tax , Income Tax PIT CIT Consumption Tax , VAT Excise Tax Int l Trade 1/ Non-tax Total Revenue , Net Revenue - 2, P= Preliminary data 1/ Including Customs Refund Total Revenue Feb 15 = 181 Bn. (-0.8%) Mar 15 = 198 Bn. (12.9%) Source : Fiscal Policy Office Public Policy Team Tel
13 13 Government Expenditure (by Economic classifications) Total Expense Feb 15 = 145 Bn. (-16.1%) Mar 15 = 249 Bn. (49.5%) Billion Baht Share FY P FY P Year Q4 Q1 Q2 Feb Mar 1.Expense , Compensation of Employees Used of Goods and Services Interest Subsidy & Grants & Social Benefits Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets Total Expense (1+2) , P= Preliminary data Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the Government Finance Statistics Manual year Source : Comptroller General s Department Public Policy Team Tel
14 14 Feb = 17.1 Bn USD (-6.0 %YoY) %YoY P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Agriculture Fishery Manufacturing Electronics Automotive Agro-manufacturing Products Machinery & Equipment Petroleum products Petro-chemical Products Electrical Appliances Metal & Steel Apparels and Textile Materials Chemicals Total Source : Compiled from Customs Department s data. Export Growth (in terms of US$) Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payment Manual and reclassified product groups by Bank of Thailand. P = Preliminary data Mar = 18.8 Bn USD (-4.3 %YoY) BOP Analysis Team Tel
15 15 Feb = 14.5 Bn USD (1.6%YoY) Import Growth (in terms of US$) Mar = 15.3 Bn USD (-6.2%YoY) %YoY P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Consumer Raw material & Intermediate o/w Fuel Capital Others o/w Automotive Total Note: *Other imports include imports of gold Data have been revised in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payment Manual and reclassified product groups by Bank of Thailand. P= Preliminary data Source : Compiled from Customs Department s data BOP Analysis Team Tel
16 Balance of Payments Billion USD E E E H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Trade balance Exports (f.o.b.) %YoY Imports (f.o.b.) %YoY Services & Income Current Account Capital and Financial Account Government Central Bank ODCs Others Net Error & Omissions Overall Balance Net Reserves Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payment Manual. E= Estimated data P= Preliminary data Source : Compiled by Bank of Thailand BOP Analysis Team Tel
17 17 Net Services and Transfers Million USD 2,000 1,500 1,000 Net Services Income and Transfers Mar-15 = -1, ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500-3,000-3,500 Net Services Income and Transfer (sa) Source : Bank of Thailand BOP Analysis Team Tel
18 Net Financial Flows Millions of USD E E E H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar 1.Government 1,332-1,282 2,614 2, Central Bank -2, ,310-1,179-2, ODC* -5, ,359-1,433-2,927-2, o/w Foreign Portfolio -1,978-1, ,324-1, o/w Foreign Loan -4, ,927-3, ,797-2, o/w Thai Portfolio o/w Deposits Abroad , o/w Thai loans -1, , , Other Sectors -7,661-4,064-3,597-1,274-2, ,154 o/w FDI 11,465 5,316 6,150 3,167 2,983 3,080 1, o/w Foreign Portfolio -2,099 1,133-3,233-1,701-1, o/w Foreign Loan 1, , o/w Foreign Trade Credit o/w TDI -7,547-2,477-5,070-1,786-3,284-2, ,855 o/w Thai Portfolio -6,610-5,343-1,267-1, o/w Thai Trade Credits -1, , , Total Financial Flows -14,564-5,912-8,651-1,727-6,925-3, E =Estimated data P=Preliminary data Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payment Manual. *ODC comprises Commercial Banks, Finance Companies, SFIs and Cooperatives Source : Bank of Thailand 18 BOP Analysis Team Tel
19 External Debt Outstanding 19 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent roundings. * including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Data have been revised in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payment Manual (BPM6). E =Estimated data by Statistic and Information Systems Department and Monetary Policy Group P=Preliminary data Source : Bank of Thailand Billions of USD P P Change Mar/Feb15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Total 1. General government Central Bank * Other Depository Corporations (ODC) Other Sectors Other Financial Corporations Non Financial Corporations O/W Foreign Trade Credit Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%) BOP Analysis Team Tel
20 Feb-15 Mar Feb-15 Mar-15 Million USD 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000 Mar CA = 2,223 Bn. USD Trade balance Services Current account Current Account External Stability NEER vs Exchange Rate Billion USD External Debt Reserves/Short-term debt Public Others ODC Mar Note : Data on the Balance of Payment have been revised in accordance with the sixth edition of the balance of payments manual. NEER and REER have been revised since uary 2012 Source : Bank of Thailand BOP Analysis Team Tel Index NEER Mar Baht per USD 34 Mar Mar Baht per US Dollar (RHS)
21 Internal Stability 21 %YoY Inflation Mar %YoY H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Headline Core PPI Source: Ministry of Commerce % Unemployment Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Data from 2557 onward are based on New Population Projections for Thailand Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO Q1* Q2* Q3* Q4* Q1* Feb* Mar* Unemployment Source: Labor Force Survey, National Statistical Office Note: * Based on New Population Projections for Thailand
22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr % Money Market Rates Policy rate O/N Interbank 1M bill 1M BIBOR As of 29 Apr Source: Bank of Thailand and The Thai Bond Market Association (ThaiBMA) Monetary Policy Strategy Team 1 Tel
23 23 Other Depository Corporations Deposits and Private Credits % YoY Private Credits Deposits + B/E Mar P 5.0 (15,504.8) 5.4 (16,808.2) Change from end of previous period (billion baht) 2012 Q1 D Deposits + B/E 1, , D Private credits 1, , Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Note: * Depository Corporations comprise Domestically Registered Commercial Banks, Branches of Foreign Banks, International Banking Facilities, Finance Companies, Specialized Banks, Thrift and Credit Cooperatives, and Money Market Mutual Funds. P เป นข อม ลเบ องต นและอาจม การเปล ยนแปลงในเด อนถ ดไป Source: Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Strategy Team 1 Tel
24 Net private credits extended by ODCs (seasonally adjusted) MoM Change (Billion Baht) Household credits Business credits Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Note: * = Preliminary Data Source: Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Strategy Team 1 Tel
25 25 Commercial Banks Interest Rates* End-month Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14-15 Feb-15 Mar Apr month deposit rate Average of 4 largest banks** Average of other banks MLR Average of 4 largest banks Average of other banks Note: * Average of all commercial banks at end-period ** 4 largest banks include Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, and Siam Commercial Bank Source: Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Strategy Team 1 Tel
26 26 % Loan-to-Deposit Ratio of Banking System (Adjusted for B/E)* -13 Apr Oct Apr Oct Note: * Comprised of Domestically Registered Commercial Banks and Branches of Foreign Banks P = Preliminary Data Mar P 94.5 Source: Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Strategy Team 1 Tel
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