Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, October 2015

Transcription

1 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, October Agricultural output picked up from last month as rice harvesting was delayed to this month by rain. However, farm income was still affected by depressed rubber prices and reduced output throughout the plantation season because of drought. Industrial production was below last year s level in line with subdued demand, although the new excise tax rates which will take effect next year helped to accelerate car sales temporarily. Nominal Farm Income Real Farm Income () Q Sep Oct Oct (MoM) Nominal farm income Agricultural production Index sa ( = ) 11 9 Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma Agricultural price Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data by BOT Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) (YOY) Weight 11 Q Sep Oct P Oct P Food & Beverages Petroleum - - Textiles Apparels HDD IC & Semiconductors Vehicles - - Cement & Construction Chemicals Rubbers & Plastics Electrical Appliances MPI P = Preliminary data MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data by BOT Source: Office of Industrial Economics (MoM) 7 Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT () Food & Beverages Petroleum Textiles Apparels HDD IC & Semiconductors Vehicles Cement & Construction Chemicals Rubbers & Plastics Electrical Appliances Capacity Utilization (sa) Weight 11 CAPU P = Preliminary data Seasonally adjusted by BOT Source: Office of Industrial Economics Q Q Aug Sep Oct P Index sa ( = ) 1 1 Other Manufacturing Indicators Export value of automobile parts Electricity used in in manufacturing Import value of raw materials excl. fuel and chemicals Index of hours worked in manufacturing (3mma) MoM sa Source: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT

2 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, October ( = ) Number of Foreign Tourists Sales in Trade Sector 175 Sales in Transportation Sector Sales in Communication Sector (mma) 15 Juristic Act and Right Registration Fee for Real Estate Service Sector Indicators 5 Note: Sales from VAT collection, latest data estimated by BOT Source: Department of Tourism, The Revenue Department Department of Land ( = ) E Low Cost Airlines' Passengers Other Service Sector Indicators International Airports' Passengers Revenue of The Transport Co. Ltd. Nielsen's Fast Moving Consumer Goods Source: Thai Airways, Airports of Thailand, Nielsen Company, The Transport Co. Ltd. calculated by BOT E (QoQ sa, MoM sa) Service Indicators (sa) Weight in Service Sector GDP () Trade Sector 5 Q Q Sep Oct Sales in Trade Sector* E Nielsen's Fast Moving Consumer Goods Domestic Car Sales Transportation Sector 1 Sales in Transportation Sector* E AOT Passengers Handled Thai Airways Passengers Carried Real Export Transportation by Ship.1 R -.9 R -1. R -.3 R Communication Sector 3 Sales in Communication Sector* E Hotel and Restaurant Sector 7 Number of Foreign Tourists Real Estate and Business Services Sector 1 Juristic Act and Right Registration Fee for Real Estate E Sales in Business Services* E Remark: *Sales from VAT collection, latest data estimated by BOT E = Estimated data R = Revised data MoM sa is calculated from 3mma data except communication sector (mma data) Source: The Revenue Department, Ministry of Finance, Department of Land, Department of Tourism, Thai Airways, AOT, The Fede ration of Thai Industries calculated by BOT New Mortgage Loans from Commercial Banks in Bangkok and Vicinity Area* Thousand units sa, 3mma 1 House Condominium Total * seasonally adjusted by BOT,5,39,197 Newly Launched Properties in Bangkok and Vicinity Area Thousand units, 3mma 1 House 1 Condominium Total 1 1 Source Agency for Real Estate Affairs AREA and calculated by BOT 9,113,9,133

3 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, October (1 = ) Disbursement of both current and capital spending by the central government remained strong. Private consumption increased from last month on the back of household spending on necessary goods and services. Meanwhile, private investment stayed low as businesses had sufficient production capacity to accommodate soft demand, both domestic and external. (1 = ) Source: The Nielsen company, Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary Data Service Index* & Non-resident Spending Index (1 = ) 1 Non-resident spending index (RHS 1 Service index 1 1 Note: *Combination of 1) hotel and restaurant VAT and ) transportation sales Million USD sa, 3mma, Equipment Indicators Imports of Capital Million Baht sa, 3mma, Domestic Machinery Sales (RHS) 5,, 79,95.1 E,,,137. 3,, Note: E = Estimated Data Source: Custom Department, Revenue Department calculated by BOT 1, m, 9mma Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index (1 = ) 1 Fuel index P (RHS) Nielsen s FMCG index (1 = ) 1 Note: E = Estimated Data Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand Construction Indicators Permitted Construction Area Construction Material Index (RHS) E , (1 = ) 1 Unit sa, 3mma,,,, Durable Index and Semi-durable Index (1 = ) 15 Semi-durable index (RHS) Durable index Equipment Indicators Car Sales for Investment 3, Source: Federation of Thai Industries, Revenue Department calculated by BOT Private Consumption Indicators Note: MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary Data E = Estimated Data Q Sep Oct P Oct P Non-durable index (MoM) Semi-durable index Durable index Service index E -. E less Tourist spending PCI Private Investment Indicators YoY Q Sep Oct P Oct P (MoM) Permitted Construction Area (9mma) E E Construction Materials Index E -. E Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery Sales E -.3 E Car Sales for Investment PII Note: MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted, 3 month moving average data P = Preliminary Data 3

4 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, October Diffusion Index 5 Consumer Confidence Index MOC UTCC (RHS) Diffusion Index Source: Ministry of Commerce (MOC), University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) 9 7 Index (Unchanged = 5) 5 BSI 3 Source : Bank of Thailand Business Sentiment Index Expected BSI (next 3 months) 1 = 53.3 = 5. Billion Baht Central Government Expenditure (excl. subsidies/grants and miscellaneous other expense) Average 11- Current Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht Oct Billion Baht (9. YoY) Oct-15.7 Billion Baht (1. YoY) Capital Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Source: Comptroller General s Department and Bank of Thailand Billion Baht FY P FY P FY P FY1 P Q Q Sep Oct Revenue 1/ () - - Expenditure / () - - Budgetary B/L Non-Budgetary B/L Cash B/L (CG) Primary B/L (CG) Net Financing Treasury B/L Fiscal Position Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Cash basis / Exclude principal loan repayment Source Fiscal Policy Office Comptroller General s Department Bank of Thailand

5 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, October Merchandise exports continued to contract due to the slowdown in trading partner economies, especially China and ASEAN countries, coupled with low oil prices which affected the export prices of related products. Meanwhile, the number of foreign tourists improved after having been affected by the bombing in Bangkok. The current account continued to post a surplus owing to low merchandise imports, in line with weak exports and the gradual recovery of domestic demand Sep = 1.5 Bn USD Ex.gold = 1.1 Bn USD G3 Manufacturing PMI Diffusion index Japan US Euro area Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, Markit Economics, Reuters Export Growth Oct = 1.3 Bn USD Ex.gold = 17.9 Bn USD Share P P P Q Sep Oct Agriculture Fishery Manufacturing Electronics Computer parts IC - Automotive Agro-manufacturing Machinery & Equipment Electrical Appliances Metal & Steel Apparels and Textile Petroleum Products Petro-chemical Products Chemicals Optical Appliances and Instruments Total Excl. Gold MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data Export to Major Countries Oct MoM) Share P P P Q Sep Oct Contr. ASEAN CLMV China Japan USA - - EU (7) Hong Kong excl. Gold Middle East Australia Source: Custom Department Diffusion index HK TW SG KR INDO Sep = 1.5 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 1.3 Bn USD Asia s Manufacturing PMI Import Growth Share P P Oct = 1. Bn USD Ex.Gold = 13. Bn USD P Q Sep Oct Consumer Raw material & Intermediate o/w Fuel o/w Raw mat & Interm excl. Fuel Capital Others o/w Automotive Total excl. gold MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data -15 Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, Markit Economics, Reuters ( = ) Asian Export Performance INDO Note: Thai export excluded gold. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by BOT TW MY Oct MoM) CN PH KR TH SG 5

6 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, October Thousand persons 3,,5, 1,5 1, 5 Source: Department of Tourism Number of Foreign Tourists Number of Foreign tourists Number of Foreign tourists (sa) (RHS) Number,,79 Growth 1. YOY Hotel Occupacy Rate Occupacy rate Occupacy rate (sa) Million USD, Current Account,, -, -, Service & Income Balance Trade Balance Current Account -, Million USD,,, -, -, -, Financial Account P Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Foreign Direct Investment Foreign Portfolio Investment Foreign Loans Other Foreign Investment Thai Direct Investment Thai Portfolio Investment Thai Loans Other Thai Investment Net Financial Flows P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data Net Financial Flows Million USD P P Q Sep E Oct E 1. Assets TDI - -,7-1, Thai portfolio investment Equity sec. investment , Debt sec. investment Loans , Other Investments -,3,9 -. Liabilities - -, FDI,913 1,3 - Foreign Portfolio investment - -1,9 -, Equity sec. investment - -1, Debt sec. investment -11-1,1 - - Loans - -,3, Other Investments -1, Total Financial flows (1+) - -, Source : Bank of Thailand P = Preliminiary data E = Estimated data Balance of Payments Billion USD P P Q Sep E Oct E YTD Trade balance Exports (f.o.b.) Imports (f.o.b.) Services & Income Current Account Capital and Financial Account Government Central Bank ODCs Others Net Error & Omissions Overall Balance International Reserves Net Forward Position Source : Bank of Thailand E = Estimated data

7 3-Dec Feb-15 3-Mar-15 -May-15 -Jun Aug-15 1-Sep-15 9-Sep-15 -Oct-15 3-Dec Feb-15 3-Mar-15 -May-15 -Jun Aug-15 1-Sep-15 9-Sep-15 -Oct-15 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, October New corporate financing declined from the previous month due to a fall in new business credits, while the combined debt and equity financing was roughly flat. New household credits continued to decline as consumers remained cautious, and banks stayed prudent in their lending standard. The Thai baht appreciated against the US dollar in October before depreciating in November following shifts in market expectation of the Federal Reserve s timing to raise key interest rate -month deposit rate Average of largest banks Average of other banks MLR Average of largest banks Average of other banks Commercial Bank Interest Rate* p.a. /15 Q/15 /15 Nov End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, and Siam Commercial Bank MRR Average of largest banks Average of other banks Billion baht Total Corporate Financing Business credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Note: Business credits and debt : change in outstanding (par) Equity : New issuance at par value, ThaiBMA, SET Loan to deposit and B/E ratio Commercial bank Oct P p.a Government Bond Yields 1D BRP 1M Y 5Y 1Y As of Nov Mar-15 May Sep-15 Nov-15 and ThaiBMA New Private Credit Extended by Other Depository Corporations Billion baht Index (1=) MoM, SA Household Appreciation NEER5 MoM change (RHS) Apr Oct Exchange Rate USDTHB (RHS) Business Nov USDTHB = NEER5 = 1.5 Apr Oct USDTHB (reverse) P = Preliminary Data IDR KRW MYR THB SGD TWD INR CNY PHP EUR JPY Changes in Regional Currencies per USD October MoM (Oct vs Sep) MYR IDR TWD PHP THB SGD CNY INR KRW EUR JPY November (Data as of Nov ) Appreciation against USD MoM ( Nov vs Oct) Source: Reuters, Bank of Thailand p.a Note: End-period data Source: Reuters, Bank of Thailand Source: Reuters, Bank of Thailand Regional Exchange Rate Volatility MYR CNY IDR KRW SGD PHP THB As of Nov 7

8 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, October Inflationary pressure stayed low although headline inflation became less negative due to temporary factors following higher fresh food prices and global oil prices. Unemployment rate was stable. Business performance and bank loan quality deteriorated because of slow economic recovery. However, overall stability of the business and banking sectors was well maintained. External stability remained sound. Contribution to Headline Inflation Raw Food (15.51) Energy (11.) Core Inflation (73.9) ( ) Share in Headline Inflation 3 Headline Inflation Source: Ministry of Finance calculated by BOT Unemployment Rate Unemployment rate.9 Unemployment rate (sa) Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Data from onward are based on The 1 Population and Housing Census Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO Labor Market Tightness Index Percent sa, 3mma 3 Job Openings/Unemployed person 5 5 Year Average (1 - ) Source: NSO, Department of Employment, Bank of Thailand Sales Growth by Sector 1.9 All Businesses Manufacturing* Real Estate Wholesale and Retail Basic metal Petroleum Petrochemical Q Q Q Q Q Note: Source: * excl. SET calculated Petrochemical, by BOT Median Contribution to Core Inflation 3. Food and Bev. excl. Alcohol (.).5 Other Goods and Services (5.3). Rent (1.1) Core Inflation Source: Ministry of Finance calculated by BOT Employment Index ( =) 11 1 Total Agriculture Manufacturing Service Note: Data from onward are based on The 1 Population and Housing Census Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT Financial Performance of Non-financial Corporations Times Interest Coverage Ratio by Asset Size Times - Sale () NPM ICR (RHS) DE (RHS) CR (RHS) Note : Median Source: SET, calculated by BOT Q Q Q Q Q Quintile 1 Quintile Quintile 3 Quintile Quintile 5 Note : Percentile 5 th represents a group of firms which has low financial capacity to service interest payments. Source: SET, calculated by BOT -

9 Q Oct Q Oct Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, October Billion Baht 1 Net Profit Margin, Operating Margin, and Commercial Banks Expenses Income Tax Bad Debt, Doubtful Accounts, and Impairment Loss Net Profit Margin Operating Margin 1 Commercial Bank Performance Billion Baht Interest Income Interest Expense Net Interest Income ( ) = ( ) ( Non-interest Income Operating Expense Operating Margin ( ) = ( ) + ( ) ( Bad Debt & Doubtful Account* Q Q Income Tax Net Profit Margin ( ) = ( ) ( ) ( Note: P = Preliminary Data *Including Impairment Loss Billion USD External Debt Public Others ODC Source : Bank of Thailand External Stability Indicators Reserves/Short-term debt. Solvency Indicators External Stability Indicators Criteria P Q Sep E Oct E Current Account / GDP () - n.a. n.a. Debt / GDP () - n.a. n.a. Debt / XGS 1/ () - Debt Service Ratio () n.a. n.a. n.a. Liquidity Indicators Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time Gross Reserves / Imports / > 3- times ST Debt / Total Debt () Note: XGS Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import (1-year average) Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E =Estimated data External Debt Outstanding Billion USD P P Change Oct/Sep15 Q Sep E Oct E Total 1. General government. Central Bank* 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) -. Other Sectors - - Other Financial Corporations - - Non Financial Corporations - O/W Foreign Trade Credit 5. Total Short-term () Long-term () Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data 9