2.1 Supply. Economic and Monetary Conditions, July Nominal Farm Income. Real Farm Income

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1 Economic and Monetary Conditions, y 2.1 Supply Farm income expanded from the same period last year as supported mainly by increased agricultural production, while agricultural prices slightly contracted. Manufacturing production also expanded from the same period last year. The overall services sector improved from the previous month, particularly in business services, real estate services and communication sector. (%YoY) Nominal Farm Income H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun Nominal farm incomep Agricultural productionp Agricultural price Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data Real Farm Income Index sa ( = ) Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) (%YOY) Weight 211 H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun P P P (Cont) (%MoM) Food & Beverages Automotives Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles Engine Rubbers & Plastics Chemicals IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Hard Disk Drive Petroleum Others MPI MPI sa % from last period P = Preliminary data. Seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of Industrial Economics Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Index sa ( = ) 215 Export < 3% 3% < Export < 6% Export > 6% Source: Office of Industrial Economics, calculated by Bank of Thailand %MoM sa.8% -.7% -1.5% Index sa ( = ) Other Manufacturing Indicators 215 Electricity used in industry Import quantity of raw materials Index of hours worked in manufacturing (3mma) %MoM sa Source: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand.7%.4% -.2% (%) Weight 211 Capacity Utilization (sa) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jun p Food & Beverages Automotives Rubbers & Plastics Chemicals IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Hard Disk Drive Petroleum Others CAPU sa P = Preliminary data. Seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of Industrial Economics 1

2 Economic and Monetary Conditions, y ( = ) 14 Service Production Index Non-market Services (share 24.8%) 13 Market Services (share 75.2%) Service Production Index (SPI) 215 Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports ( = ) 13 Trade Sector Transportation Sector Business Services Communication Sector (RHS) Thai Visitors (RHS) Sales from VAT Collection and Other Indicator ( = ) Note: Sales from VAT collection in trade, transportation, business services, and communication sectors, latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand. Share in GDP : Trade (15.2%), Transportation and Communication (1.3%), Real Estate and Business Services (8.2%) Source: The Tourism Authority of Thailand and The Revenue Department 14 2

3 Economic and Monetary Conditions, y 2.2 Domestic demand Private consumption indicators expanded from the same period last year in all spending categories, particularly spending on durable goods. Private investment indicators grew from both investment in machinery and equipment and construction. Public spending, excluding transfers, expanded in both capital and current spending. Private Consumption Indicators % YoY H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun P P (%MoM) Non-durable Index Semi-durable Index Durable Index Service Index E -.3 E (less) Net tourist spending Private Consumption Index Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary Data, E = Estimated Data, R = Revised Data Source: Bank of Thailand Durable Index and Semi-durable Index ( = ) 215 Source: Bank of Thailand Semi-durable Index Durable Index ( = ) Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index ( = ) 14 Fuel Index P (RHS) 13 Nielsen s FMCG Index excl. Alcohol and Tobacco 215 P = Preliminary Data Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index ( = ) Service Index Net Tourist Spending Index** (RHS) ( = ) Note: * Combination of 1) hotel and restaurant VAT and 2) transportation sales ** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abro Source: Bank of Thailand Consumer Confidence Index Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = ) Total Current Next 6 months Average 5 years = Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun P P (%MoM) E -.7 E Construction Materials Index Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery Sales E -2. E Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment Private Investment Indicators Private Investment Index Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary Data E = Estimated Data Source : Bank of Thailand 3

4 Economic and Monetary Conditions, y Index sa ( =) 14 Equipment Indicators Real Imports of Capital Goods Domestic Machinery Sales Car Registered for Investment Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms. Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand Index sa ( =) Construction Indicators Construction Materials Index Permitted Construction Area (RHS) 215 Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms. Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand 1, m 2, 9mma 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 5) BSI Source : Bank of Thailand Business Sentiment Index Expected BSI (next 3 months) Oct Central government expenditure (excl. subsidies/grants and miscellaneous other expense) Billion Baht Average 213- Current Expenditure Billion Baht (5.5% YoY) Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht Capital Expenditure Billion Baht 6 (8.2% YoY) 4 2 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Source: Comptroller General s Department and Bank of Thailand Government Revenue (by Collection Tax Base) Fiscal Year Share Note: Share represents the average share for the last 5 years (213-). Net Revenue excluded Customs Refund, Allocation for Local Government, and VAT allocation for Provincial Administration Organizations. Source: Fiscal Policy Office, Revenue Department Billion Baht (%) FY FY P FY P avg Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 June y 1. Tax , Income PIT CIT Consumption Tax , VAT Excise Tax Int'l Trade Non-tax Total Revenue. 2, Net Revenue - 2, Billion Baht Fiscal Position (Cash basis) FY FY FY FY P Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Revenue 2,412 2, (%YoY) (9.3) (-2.4) (-5.9) (3.) (-6.9) (2.3) (-.8) (9.5) (9.) (8.5) (11.5) Expenditure 1/ 2,736 2, (%YoY) (9.) (2.2) (6.) (-4.) (-1.3) (7.5) (2.2) (-5.8) (14.) (33.1) (-8.8) Budgetary B/L Non-Budgetary B/L Cash B/L (CG) Primary B/L (CG) Net Financing Treasury B/L Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Exclude principal loan repayment Source: Fiscal Policy Office, Comptroller General s Department, Bank of Thailand 4

5 Economic and Monetary Conditions, y 2.3 The global economy and external sector The current account posted a smaller surplus as contributed mainly from smaller trade balance. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from both the assets and liabilities positions. Index ( 215 = ) US ( 18) Euro Area* (Jun 18) Japan (Jun 18) 215 Source: Bloomberg Note: *Volume Index G3 Retail Sales 18 ( = ) 7 Asian Export Performance 215 Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil and gas. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand KR PH TH MYCN TW INDO SG Jun = 21.8 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 21.3 Bn USD %YoY Share P P Export Growth P P = 2.3 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 2.1 Bn USD H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun (%MoM) Agriculture Fishery Manufacturing Agro-manufacturing Electronics Electrical Appliances Automotive Machinery & Equipment Petroleum Related Total (BOP Basis) Ex. Gold Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording passing through Customs while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between R and NR. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data Jun = 18.9 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 18.3 Bn USD %YoY Share P P Import Growth P P H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun (%MoM) Consumer Raw material & Intermediate o/w Fuel o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel = 19.4 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 18.3 Bn USD Capital Others Total (BOP Basis) Ex. Gold %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value is recorded by BOP basis. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data 5

6 Economic and Monetary Conditions, y Financial Account Million USD P P P H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun E YTD 1. Assets 2 2 TDI Equity Thai portfolio investment 2 - Equity sec. investment Debt sec. investment 2 2 Loans 2 2 Other investments Trade credits Liabilities FDI Equity Foreign portfolio investment - Equity sec. investment Debt sec. investment Loans Other investments Trade credits 2 22 Total financial flows (1+2) 2 2 Source : Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E= Estimated data Balance of Payments Billion USD P P P H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun E YTD Trade balance Exports (f.o.b.) %YoY Imports (f.o.b.) %YoY Services & income Current account Capital and financial account Government Central bank ODCs Others Net error & omissions Overall balance International reserves Net forward position Source : Bank of Thailand E= Estimated data P = Preliminary data %YoY (Share in ) H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun P %MoM sa China (27.7%) Malaysia (9.5%) Asia ex. China & Malaysia (29.6%) Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin Russia (3.8%) Europe ex. Russia (14.6%) Others (14.8%) Total (million persons). (18.1) (19.5) (. ) (8.9) (3.).2. Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports Index sa ( = ) Inbound Tourists Index Total China (share 28%) Malaysia (share 9%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 3%) Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%) 215 Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2 Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand 6

7 -17 Apr Oct Apr Apr Oct Apr Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun Aug-18 Economic and Monetary conditions, y 2.4 Monetary and financial conditions Total corporate financing increased at a slower pace after having an acceleration in the previous month. New credit extended to both households and businesses expanded from the previous month. As at end of month, the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar slightly depreciated, while the NEER remained unchanged from the previous month. Commercial Bank Interest Rates* % p.a. H1/17 H2/17 Q1/18 Q2/ Aug 18 2-month deposit rate Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks MLR Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks MRR Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya Source: Bank of Thailand Source: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA Government Bond Yields As of 23 Aug 18 % p.a. 1D BRP 1M 2Y 5Y 1Y Billion baht Change in Total Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA Note: Business credits and debt: change in outstanding Equity: new issuance at par value Source: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET New Private Credit Extended by Other Depository Corporations Billion baht MoM, SA Household % MoM change, SA (RHS) Business Note: Data for other depository corporations (ODCs) private credit and the ODCs private credit extended to households have been revised since uary due to reflect the improvement in the data processing system. Source: Bank of Thailand %

8 3-Dec Feb-16 7-Mar Mar Apr May-16 9-Jun-16 3-Jun Aug-16 7-Sep Sep Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec Dec Feb-17 2-Mar Mar Apr May-17 1-Jun Jun Aug Aug Sep-17 1-Oct-17 3-Nov Nov Dec Feb Feb Mar-18 9-Apr-18 3-May May Jun Aug-18 3-Dec Feb-16 7-Mar Mar Apr May-16 9-Jun-16 3-Jun Aug-16 7-Sep Sep Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec Dec Feb-17 2-Mar Mar Apr May-17 1-Jun Jun Aug Aug Sep-17 1-Oct-17 3-Nov Nov Dec Feb Feb Mar-18 9-Apr-18 3-May May Jun Aug-18 Economic and Monetary conditions, y Index (212 = ) Appreciation USDTHB (RHS) Exchange Rates 23 Aug 2 8 USDTHB = NEER25 = NEER25 Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand USDTHB (reverse) % 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5%.5% -.5% -1.5% -2.5% -3.5% -4.5% Changes in Trading Partners Currencies per USD -.6% -.8% -3.2% MoM 18 vs Jun 18) %MTD (23 Aug 18 vs 18).6% 1.4% Note: End-period data, + = Appreciation against USD Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand.%.1%.4%.4% -.8% -.6% -.6% -.1% -.5% -.6% -.4% -.3% -1.% -.6% -.6% -1.4% -2.1% -2.3% -1.7% -1.4% CNY JPY TWD IDR MYR KRW THB INR GBP SGD PHP AUD EUR.6% Regional Exchange Rate Volatility % p.a. 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % THB CNY IDR KRW MYR PHP As of 23 Aug Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand 8

9 Economic and Monetary Conditions, y 2.5 Financial stability Headline inflation accelerated due mainly to increased retail petroleum prices. Meanwhile, core inflation declined marginally from the previous month. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate decreased slightly from last month. External stability remained strong and resilient to withstand volatility in the global financial markets. %YoY Contribution to Headline Inflation Fresh Food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core Inflation (72.56%) ( ) Share in Headline Inflation 18 Headline Inflation 1.46% Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand %YoY Contribution to Core Inflation Rent (19.62%) Food and Beverage ex. Alcohol (28.17%) Other Goods and Services (52.21%) ( ) Share in Core Inflation 215 Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand 18 Core Inflation.79% % y 18 Unemployment rate 1. % Unemployment rate (sa) 1. % Unemployment Rate Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Data from onward are based on The 21 Population and Housing Census Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO ( =) Employment Index Total Agriculture (31%) Manufacturing (17%) Construction (6%) Trade (17%) Service (29%) 215 Note: Data from onward are based on The 21 Population and Housing Census. ( ) denotes share in total employment Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT 9

10 Economic and Monetary Conditions, y Return on Assets and Operating Profit Margin by Sectors Percentage RoA OPM Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Petrochemical Steel Overall Interest Coverage Ratio and Debt to Equity Ratio by Sectors Times ICR P5 D/E P5 (RHS) Times Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Petrochemical Steel Overall Note: 5th percentile, *Manufacturing exclude petroleum and petrochemical, Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand External Debt Outstanding Billion USD P P P 18- Jun18 Change H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun E Total 1. General government Central Bank* Other Depository Corporations (ODC) Other Sectors Other Financial Corporations (OFC) Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%) Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data Solvency Indicators Current Account / GDP (%) Debt / GDP (%) < / Debt / XGS 1/ (%) < / Debt Service Ratio (%) Liquidity Indicators Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time Gross Reserves / Imports 2/ > 3 times ST Debt / Total Debt (%) External Stability Indicators Criteria P P P H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun E Note: XGS Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average) Severely indebted countries Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data 1