Economic Monthly ASEAN & India

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1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA, MAKIKO STOKES ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE 27 NOVEMBER 218 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 218) MUFG Bank, Ltd. A member of MUFG, a global financial group 1. Indonesia Real GDP slightly decelerated to +.2% YoY in Jul-Sep Real GDP growth slightly decelerated to +.2% YoY in Jul-Sep from the previous quarter (+.3% YoY). Looking at domestic demand, government consumption (+6.3% YoY) and gross fixed capital formation (+7.% YoY) accelerated while private consumption (+.% YoY), which accounts for approximately % of the overall GDP, slightly decelerated. Looking at external demand, negative contribution of net exports continued as both exports and imports growth slowed down from the previous quarter. FY219 Budget approved FY219 state budget has been approved by the parliament on 31 October. Revenue is expected to increase +14.3% compared to FY218 revised budget on the back of trade expansion and commodity market rally. Expenditure focuses on social security including subsidies to the poor and rural areas as well as education and infrastructure development. It also includes a budget for disaster restoration. As a result, fiscal deficit narrowed to -1.8% of GDP and it can be said that the budget maintains fiscal discipline. The government projects FY219 real GDP growth to reach +.3% YoY. It is important to keep an eye on the budget implementation ahead of the upcoming presidential election scheduled in April next year Others Chart1:Real GDP Gross Fixed Capital Formation Private Consumption Net Export Government Consumption Real GDP Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), (Year) Chart 2: Fiscal Balance Implemen tation,% Jan-Sep Implemen tation, % Jan-Dec Revised Budget Progressi on, % Jan-Sep Budget (IDR tr) % of FY218 revised budget Revenue & Grant , , Tax , , Non Tax Expenditure , , Central Govrnment , , Subsidy NA - Capital NA - Fiscal Balance % of GDP Real GDP FY (Target).4 - (Target).3 Note: "Implementation" & "Progression" are the actual result divided by the revised budget. % change in "Nominal GDP" and "Real GDP" indicate the gap between the figures. Source: Ministry of Finance Indonesia, Various news reports, FY218 FY Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

2 2. Malaysia Export of Manufactured Goods substantially decelerated to +1.8% YoY in August Export of Manufactured Goods substantially decelerated to +1.8% YoY in August from the previous month (+12.7% YoY) as Electrical and Electronic Products (EE) (approximately 4% of total export of Manufactured Goods) slowed, particularly in Semiconductors sector. FY219 Budget announced The government announced FY219 budget on 2 November. Total revenue is projected to increase +1.7% compared to FY218 revised estimate. While the share of tax revenue of total revenue will decline after the new government scrapped Goods and Services Tax (GST), it will rely more on non-tax revenue including increased dividends from a state-owned oil company. Looking at expenditure, operating expenditure (OE) allocation is +1.4% higher than FY218. While subsidies, including cash assistance for the poor, are projected to decrease -2.8%, MYR37 billion is allocated for payment of outstanding tax refund comprising of income tax refund and GST refund. Development expenditure (DE), spent mainly on infrastructure projects, will be decreased -.4% from FY218. Overall, the government plans to narrow the fiscal deficit to 3.4% of GDP in 219. The government also said it would continue to narrow the gap gradually through new tax measures including digital services tax. Chart1: Export of Manufactured Goods Chart 2: Fiscal Balance Other Products Manufactures of Metal Machinery, Appliances and Parts Chemical and Chemical Products Petroleum Products Electrical and Electronic Products (EE) Exports: Manufactured Goods (Year) Note: Malaysia s Export of Manufactured Goods accounts for approx. 7% of total exports. Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, FY217 FY218 FY219 (MYR mn) Changes (Estimates) (Budget) (%) (1)Total revenue 22,46 236,46 261, of which: Tax revenue 177,68 174,7 176,12.8 of which: Non-tax revenue 42,748 61,76 8, (2) Operating Expenditure (OE) 217,69 23,4 29,8 1.4 of which: Debt service charges 27,863 3,882 33, 6.9 of which: Subsidies 22,34 28,128 22, Current account balance: (1)-(2) 2,711 1,1 1, (3) Development Expenditure (DE) 44,884 4,9 4,7 -.4 Fiscal balance: (1)-(2)-(3) - 42,173-3,89-2, Fiscal deficit as % of GDP Real GDP growth Note: Change in real GDP growth is a difference between the figures Source: Ministry of Finance Malaysia, 3. Philippines Motor vehicle sales recorded -9.7% YoY in September, remaining low Motor vehicle sales recorded -9.7% YoY in September, remaining at a level significantly below the previous year although showing a smaller decline for the second consecutive month. It appears that the reactionary drop, following rush demand before excise tax increase on automobile in January, still continues. Bank loans slowed to +16.3% YoY in September Bank loans (total of Universal and Commercial Banks) stood at +16.3% YoY in September, showing downward trend since September 217 when recorded +2.1% YoY albeit growth rate still remains at high level. Looking at loan types by economic activities, Real Estate Activities continued to decelerate due to the tightening of regulations for real estate loans which was announced by the central bank in October 217. Meanwhile, Manufacturing, Utility 2 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

3 and Construction and Services excluding Real Estate Activities remained firm. Looking at Household Consumption, growth of Auto Loans slowed while Credit Card Loans maintained high growth., (Unit) Chart 1: Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY,%) 3 Chart2: Bank Loans 4, 4 2 3, 3 2 2, 1, -1, -2, Motor Vehicle Sales (left axis) YoY growth rate (right axis) -3, Source: Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI), (Year) Total (1) Manufacturing, Utility and Construction (28) Real Estate Activities (17) Note: Loans are the total of Universal & Commercial Banks. Figures in ( ) indicate shares in the total. Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), Other Services (3) Household Consumption (8) (Year) 4. Singapore Real GDP growth (advance estimates) slowed to +2.6% YoY in Jul-Sep Real GDP growth (advance estimates) was +2.6% YoY in Jul-Sep, slowing down from the previous quarter (+4.1% YoY). The manufacturing sector was +4.% YoY, maintaining relatively high growth but decelerating from the previous quarter (+1.6% YoY). The construction sector contracted by -3.1% YoY, extending declines for the last nine quarters although recording a smaller decline compared to the previous quarter (-4.2% YoY). The services producing industries stood at +2.9% YoY, the same pace of growth as in the previous quarter. MAS decided to slightly change the monetary policy stance The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), in its bi-annual Monetary Policy Statement released on 12 October, said it decided to slightly increase the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, indicating that the economy is likely to expand at a steady pace for the rest of this year and in 219 and the inflation is projected to rise modestly. The MAS has changed the monetary policy stance (slightly increased the slope of the S$NEER policy band from the previous zero percent) in April 218 for the first time in two years. 3 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

4 Chart 1: Real GDP Chart 2: Consumer Price Real GDP Growth Annualised QoQ, % Manufacturing Construction Services Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 advance estimates (11.2) (2.1) (2.3) (1.2) (4.7) Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) Singapore, 1-1 CPI: Others CPI: Recreation & Culture CPI: Transport -2 CPI: Household Durables & Services CPI: Housing & Utilities CPI: Food Consumer Price Index (CPI) -3 CPI: Core (Year) Source: Singapore Department of Statistics (DOS), Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS),. Thailand Private consumption (sa) was +4.7% YoY in September, remaining firm Private Consumption Index (PCI, seasonally adjusted) stood at +4.7% YoY in September, remaining firm although the growth decelerated from the previous month. Looking at the breakdown, Non-Durables Index (NDI) fell into negative territory due to repercussions from the previous year s high level with a last-minute buying before the excise tax increase on alcoholic beverages and cigarettes. On the other hand, Semi-Durables Index (SDI) accelerated and Services Index (SI) continued to grow stably. Exports stood at -.% YoY in September Exports stood at -.% YoY in September, declining for the first time in about two years. Looking at the breakdown by items, Non-monetary gold suffered a sharp decline due to repercussions from the previous year s high level and weighed most heavily on the total exports. Looking at non-gold sectors, Automotive and Auto Parts, Electronics and Electrical Appliances and Agriculture, Fisheries and Processed Food Products also declined year on year. Automotive sector appears to have been affected by changes in taxation in major export destination countries as well as natural disasters. 4 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

5 Chart 1: Private Consumption and Consumer Confidence Chart 2: Exports by items Private Consumption Index (left axis) Consumer Confidence (right axis) (Points) Others Non-monetary Gold Automotive and Auto Parts Machinery & Equipment Electronics and Electrical Appliances Chemicals, Petro-chemical and Petroleum Products Agriculture, Fisheries and Processed Food Products Exports, f.o.b. (BOP basis) (Year) Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), (Year) Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), 6. Vietnam Motor vehicle sales soared to +24.7% YoY in September Motor vehicle sales soared to +24.7% YoY in September. Complete Built Up (CBU) vehicles sales recorded high growth (+42% YoY) which outpaced Complete Knock Down (CKD) vehicles sales (+16% YoY). Motor vehicle sales had shown sluggish growth after the government introduced new non-tariff measures such as requiring importers to submit the vehicle type approval (VTA) certificates issued by authorities from the countries of production while it eliminated tariffs on imported cars from ASEAN region in January, but are now rebounding as the Vietnamese government decided to accept the VTA certificates issued by authorities in Thailand and Indonesia. Exports decelerated to +2.3% YoY in October Exports was +2.3% YoY in October, decelerating for the third consecutive month. Garments and Footwear remained firm while Food, Agricultural and Fishery Products remained sluggish, and Telephones, Mobile Phones and Parts declined year-on-year. Imports, on the other hand, accelerated to +13.6% YoY and growth was strong particularly in Textile Fabrics and Machinery. As a result, trade balance stood at USD1 million, leaving surplus remain narrow. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

6 3, (Units) Chart1:Motor Vehicle Sales 12 Chart 2: Trade Balance (USD bn) 2. 2, 2, 1, , 4., , -1, Motor Vehicle Sales (left axis) YoY growth rate (right axis) Source: Vietnam Automobile Manufacturer Association (VAMA), (Year) Trade Balance (right axis) Exports (left axis) Imports (left axis) (Year) Source: General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam, India Trade deficit narrowed to USD-14 billion in September In September, exports stood at -2.3% YoY, turning negative for the first time in six months while imports decelerated to +1.% YoY, the slowest growth in the last five months, leaving trade deficit narrowed to USD-14 billion (the previous month: USD-17.4 billion). CPI slightly accelerated to +3.8% YoY in September Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly accelerated to +3.8% YoY in September from the previous month (+3.7% YoY). Looking at the breakdown, Food and Beverages, which accounts for approximately % of total share, accelerated to +.% YoY (the previous month: +.3% YoY), albeit remaining at a low level, and boosted the overall index. Housing (+7.1% YoY, 1% of share) and Fuel and Light (+8.% YoY, 1% of share) remained at high levels. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the central bank of India, decided to keep its policy repo rate unchanged at the Monetary Policy Committee on October. The RBI lowered CPI inflation projections amid currently subdued inflation (target: 4 percent, plus or minus 2 percent) (USD bn) Chart1:Trade Balance Trade Balance: Non Oil (left axis) Trade Balance: Oil (left axis) Trade Balance (left axis) Exports (right axis) Imports (right axis) Chart 2: Consumer Price CPI: Miscellaneous CPI: Health CPI: Transport and Communication CPI: Clothing and Footwear CPI: Housing, Fuel and Light CPI: Food and Beverages, Tobacco Consumer Price Index Policy Rate (Year) Source: Government of India Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Source: Government of India Central Statistics Office (CSO), (Year) 6 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

7 Appendix1: Economic indicators in major Asian economies Indonesia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) ,1 Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 3,37 3,6 3, Q4 18Q1 Q2 Q3 JUL-18 AUG SEP OCT Real GDP Growth Rate (4.9) (.) (.1) (.2) (.1) (.3) (.2) Industrial Production Index (4.8) (4.) (4.7) (.1) (.4) (3.1) (3.9) (4.9) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 1,13,291 1,62,729 1,79,34 27, ,4 261,62 32,774 17,474 12,197 93,13 (-16.1) (4.9) (1.6) (-1.) (2.9) (4.8) (12.) (2.9) (.1) (6.2) Consumer Price Index* (6.4) (3.) (3.8) (3.) (3.3) (3.3) (3.1) (3.2) (3.2) (2.9) (3.2) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 1,366 14, ,774 4,436 44,273 43,721 46,993 16,29 1,874 14,829 (-14.6) (-3.4) (16.2) (13.4) (8.8) (11.3) (8.3) (19.7) (4.) (1.7) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 142,69 13,63 16,947 44,439 43,99 4,93 49,717 18,297 16,818 14,62 (-19.9) (-4.9) (1.7) (2.2) (2.1) (26.3) (23.7) (31.7) (24.) (14.2) Trade Balance (USD mn) 7,671 9,33 11, ,372-2,724-2, Current Account Balance (USD mn) -17,19-16,92-17,327 -,822 -,717-8,28 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 13, , ,87 126,87 122,43 116,682 11,22 114,92 BI Rate 7. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate #N/A Exchange Rate (IDR/USD)* 13,39 13,36 13,381 13,332 13,38 13,79 13,974 14,414 14,6 14,87 1,177 Stock Index 4,93., ,3.7 6,3.7 6,189.,799.2,976.6, ,18.,976.6,831.7 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate w as adopted as benchmark on August 19, 216. Source: Bank Indonesia (BI), CEIC, Bloomberg etc, Malaysia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q4 18Q1 Q2 Q3 JUL-18 AUG SEP OCT GDP Per Capita (USD) 9,41 9,399 9,847 Real GDP Growth Rate (.1) ( 4.2) (.9) (.9) (.4) ( 4.) Industrial Production Index (.) ( 4.1) ( 4.3) ( 3.) ( 3.9) ( 2.8) ( 2.) ( 2.2) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 666,716 8,118 76,632 1,94 13,138 14,74 16,27 68,46 6,1 31,241 (.) (- 13.) (-.6) (- 6.7) (- 4.) (7.6) (17.) (41.) (26.8) (- 23.7) Consumer Price Index ( 2.1) ( 2.1) ( 3.8) ( 3.6) ( 1.8) ( 1.3) (.) (.9) (.2) (.3) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 199, , ,773 8,879 6, 62,37 61,324 21,272 19,991 2,61 (-14.9) (-4.7) (14.7) (16.8) (19.6) (18.7) (9.) (1.9) (4.4) (8.4) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 176,3 168,3 194,79 2,322 2,43,14,186 19,216 19,97 16,374 (-1.7) (-4.3) (1.6) (19.1) (12.) (18.9) (1.7) (16.8) (16.4) (-1.1) Trade Balance (USD mn) 23,13 21,24 22,978 6,7 8,12 6,897 6,137 2, ,687 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 9,69 7,136 9,42 3,347 3, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 93,979 93,72 1,878 1,878 16,22 13,148 11,66 12,979 12,8 11,66 Three-month KLIBOR (%) Exchange Rate (MYR/USD)* Stock Index 1,692. 1, , , ,863. 1,691. 1, , , , ,79.3 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), CEIC etc, Philippines Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q4 18Q1 Q2 Q3 JUL-18 AUG SEP OCT GDP Per Capita (USD) 2,883 2,93 2,989 Real GDP Growth Rate (6.1) (6.9) (6.7) (6.) (6.6) (6.) Industrial Production Index (2.) (11.9) (-.) (-7.6) (12.4) (1.) (13.) (9.) (4.) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 323,21 43, , ,84 86,37 8,3 89,467 28,38 3,313 31,116 (19.6) (24.9) (17.4) (2.1) (-8.) (-16.2) (-16.2) (-24.1) (-14.1) (-9.7) Consumer Price Index (.7) (1.3) (2.9) (2.) (3.4) (4.4) (.1) (.7) (6.4) (6.7) (6.7) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 8,827 7,46 68,713 16,88 1,841 17,3,81 6,183 (-.3) (-2.4) (19.7) (13.4) (-.) (-1.3) (.3) (3.4) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 71,67 84,18 96,93 26,717 24,426 27,411 9,397 9,677 (8.7) (18.3) (14.2) (21.1) (6.9) (19.6) (31.6) (11.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -12,24-26,72-27,38-9,837-8,8-1,38-3,46-3,494 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 7,266-1,199-2,163-3, ,931 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 73,964 73,433 73,233 73,233 72,136 69,612 67,362 68,934 7,312 67,362 TB Rate NA NA Exchange Rate (PHP/USD)* Stock Index 6,92.1 6,84.6 8,8.4 8,8.4 7, , , ,672. 7,8.7 7, ,14.3 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales: Quarterly/Monthly sales are based on data by Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) /only Calender Year sales include data by Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors (AVID) (some are duplicated). Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas(BSP), IMF, CEIC etc, 7 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

8 Singapore Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q4 18Q1 Q2 Q3 JUL-18 AUG SEP OCT GDP Per Capita (USD) 4,949,26 7,724 Real GDP Growth Rate ( 2.2) ( 2.4) ( 3.6) ( 3.6) ( 4.) ( 3.9) ( 2.6) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (-.1) (3.7) ( 1.4) (.8) ( 1.8) ( 1.7) ( 3.) ( 7.3) (3.7) (-.2) Real Retail Sales Index (RSI) ( 4.6) ( 1.4) ( 1.3) ( 3.1) (- 1.8) (.4) (- 3.) (- 1.2) Consumer Price Index (-.) (-.) (.6) (.) (.2) (.3) (.7) (.6) (.7) (.7) Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 491, ,912 1,1 134, ,66 138,46 144,622 48,37,41 4,864 (- 6.) (-.1) (1.3) (6.6) (2.3) (9.3) (12.7) (13.3) (13.) (11.4) Imports (cif) (SGD mn) 423,43 43,3 42,12 12, ,82 122,326 13,228 44,976 43,83 41,4 (-11.) (-4.7) (12.1) (9.1) (2.8) (11.1) (17.) (22.) (13.2) (16.) Trade Balance (SGD mn) 68,414 63,67 62,899 13,291 1,813 16,22 14,393 3,331 6,648 4,414 Current Account Balance (SGD mn) 77,668 81,297 84,221 17,72 21,36 22,832 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 247,34 246,36 279,69 279,69 286,94 287, ,6 289,268 Three-month SIBOR (SGD,%) Exchange Rate (SGD/USD)* Stock Index 2, ,88.8 3,42.9 3,42.9 3,428. 3, ,27.1 3, ,213. 3,27.1 3,18.8 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Singapore Department of Statistics, CEIC etc, Thailand Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 6,18 6,249 6, Q4 18Q1 Q2 Q3 JUL-18 AUG SEP OCT Real GDP Growth Rate ( 3.) ( 3.3) ( 3.9) ( 4.) ( 4.9) ( 4.6) Industrial Production Index (.) (1.4) (2.) (4.4) (4.1) (3.7) (1.) (4.9) (.8) (-2.6) Private Consumption Indicator ( 1.7) ( 4.1) ( 2.3) ( 3.) ( 4.) ( 4.) ( 6.) ( 7.4) ( 7.4) ( 4.7) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 799, , ,647 2,93 237,93 22,2 27,466 81,946 86,814 88,76 (-9.3) (-3.9) (13.4) (18.2) (12.6) (26.3) (22.2) (2.7) (27.7) (14.3) Consumer Price Index (-.9) (.2) (.7) (.9) (.6) (1.3) (1.) (1.) (1.6) (1.3) (1.2) Unemployment Rate (%)* Exports (fob) (USD mn) 214,46 214,21 23,267 61,131 61,788 63,14 63,387 2,31 22,38 2,7 (-.6) (.1) (9.8) (11.6) (9.9) (12.3) (2.6) (8.3) (.8) (-.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 187, ,711 21,17 4,98,13 7,21 9,963 19,444 21,776 18,743 (-1.6) (-.1) (13.2) (13.4) (17.9) (16.8) (17.) (12.4) (24.2) (14.3) Trade Balance (USD mn) 26,798 36,39 34,161 7,33 6,63,84 3, ,963 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 32,111 48,28,211 12,39 1,76 6,61 4,28 1, ,369 Capital and Financial Account (USD mn) -16,799-2,84-12,429 -,41-4,264 -,9-1, , External Debt (USD mn) 131,78 132,18 1,22 1,22 17,81 14,162 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 11, ,17 196, ,121 29,62 2,94 198,61 199,44 198,9 198,61 One-day Repo Rate (%) Exchange Rate (THB/USD)* Stock Index 1,288. 1,42.9 1,73.7 1,73.7 1, ,9.6 1, Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), NESDB, CEIC etc, Vietnam Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q4 18Q1 Q2 Q3 JUL-18 AUG SEP OCT GDP Per Capita (USD) 2,19 2,21 2,38 Real GDP Growth Rate (6.7) (6.2) (6.8) (7.7) (7.) (6.7) (6.9) Industrial Production Index (9.8) (7.) (9.4) (14.4) (12.7) (8.2) (1.7) (14.3) (11.3) (9.1) (7.7) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 28,48 271,82 2,612 6,781 8,8 64,2 63,27 2,44 19,213 24,18 (3.6) (3.3) (-7.8) (-16.6) (-1.7) (-2.2) (6.6) (3.6) (-7.4) (24.7) Consumer Price Index (.6) (2.7) (3.) (2.7) (2.8) (3.8) (4.1) (4.) (4.) (4.) (3.9) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 162,17 176,81 21,119 6,94,681 8,163 64,926 2,32 23,481 21,12 2,8 (7.9) (9.) (21.8) (2.1) (24.) (9.1) (14.3) (14.8) (18.) (9.) (2.3) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 16,7 174,84 213,7 7,86 2,948 7,16 61,71 2,9 21,284 19,13 2,7 (12.) (.6) (21.9) (17.4) (12.7) (.4) (14.2) (2.2) (16.4) (6.4) (13.6) Trade Balance (USD mn) -3,4 1,777 2,112 2,229 2,732 1,147 3, ,197 1,612 1 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 96 8,23 6,124 3,18 3,934 4,3 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 28,2 36,27 49,76 49,76 6,26 Refinancing Rate Exchange Rate (VND/USD)* 21,923 22,36 22,718 22,717 22,734 22,8 23,23 22,841 23,98 23,294 23,3 Stock Index , , ,17.13 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), IMF, CEIC etc, 8 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

9 India Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 2,13 2,276 2,62 Population (person mn) 1,283 1,299 1,316 FY21 FY216 FY217 FY17Q3 FY17Q4 FY18Q1 FY18Q2 JUL-18 AUG SEP OCT GDP Per Capita (USD) 1,639 1,72 1,977 Real GDP Growth Rate (8.2) (7.1) (6.7) ( 7.) ( 7.7) ( 8.2) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (3.3) (4.6) (4.4) (.9) (6.) (.1) (6.) (4.3) Motor Vehicle Sales: Passenger Vehicle (PV) 2,789,28 3,47,79 3,288, 794, ,28 873,1 87,84 29,96 287, ,68 (7.3) (9.2) (7.9) (6.1) (7.2) (19.9) (-3.6) (-2.7) (-2.) (-.6) Wholesale Price Index (-3.6) (1.8) (2.9) (3.8) (2.8) (4.7) (.) (.3) (4.) (.1) (4.9) (4.) (3.6) (4.6) (4.6) (4.8) (3.9) (4.2) (3.7) (3.8) Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 262,291 27,82 33,373 77,14 8,6 81,898 81,763 2,94 27,916 27,92 (-1.) (.2) (1.) (14.1) (.) (14.) (1.2) (16.4) (19.) (-2.3) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 381,8 384,37 464,713 12, , ,29 131,1 43,797 4,319 41,93 (-1.) (.9) (2.9) (17.9) (14.) (12.4) (21.1) (28.) (2.6) (1.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -118,717-18, -161,34-43,98-4,768-46,392-49,287-17,82-17,43-14,33 Current Account Balance (USD mn) -22,88-14,3-48,661-13,74-13,47-1,87 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 341,189 3,924 43,71 389,3 43,71 38,4 383,777 38,74 Repo Rate(%) Exchange Rate (INR/USD)* Stock Index 2,342 29,621 32,969 34,7 32,969 3,423 36,227 37,67 38,64 36,227 34,442 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. "Motor Vehicle Sales" include Utility Vehicle (UV) and Multipurpose Vehicle (MPV). Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Central Statistics Office, CEIC etc, 9 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

10 Cambodia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,4 1,131 1,21 1,313 1,432 Real GDP Growth Rate (7.1) (7.3) (7.6) (7.1) (6.9) (7.) (6.9) Consumer Price Index (.) ( 2.9) ( 2.9) ( 3.9) ( 1.2) ( 3.) ( 2.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -1,19-1,21-1,276-1,418-1,73-1,697-1,82 Trade Balance (USD mn) -3,17-3,28-3,636-3,82-3,949-3,846-4,278 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 3,4 4,267 4,16,626 6,883 8,393 11,262 External Debt (USD mn) 4,227 6,283 7,132 7,93 9,328 1,23 NA Exchange Rate (KHR/USD)* 4,9 4,33 4,27 4,38 4,68 4,9 4,1 Myanmar Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 1,186 1,172 1,169 1,261 1,134 1,19 1,246 Real GDP Growth Rate.6 ( 7.3) ( 8.4) ( 8.) ( 7.) (.9) ( 6.8) Consumer Price Index (.) ( 1.) ( 8.9) (.) ( 9.) ( 6.9) ( 4.6) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -1,633-1, ,96-2,696-1,46 -,738 Trade Balance (USD mn) ,6-4,11 -,441 -,29-3,3 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 7,4 6,964 8,4 4,228 4,31 4,619 4,911 External Debt (USD mn) 8,192 7,84 7,21 6,266 6,67 6,43 NA Exchange Rate (MMK/USD)* , , ,36.36 Bangladesh Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,14 1,224 1,37 1,1 Real GDP Growth Rate 6. (6.) (6.) (6.1) (6.6) (7.1) (7.3) Consumer Price Index (1.9) (8.7) (6.8) (7.3) (6.4) (.9) (.4) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -1, ,388 1,49 3,492 4,262-1,48 Trade Balance (USD mn) -12,64-11,711-11,12-1,814-6,941-6,428-9,317 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 8,1 12,31 17,64 21,78 27,23 31,776 32,849 External Debt (USD mn) 27,277 28,9 33,99 3,662 38,688 41,126 NA Exchange Rate (BDT/USD)* Pakistan Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 1,19 1,188 1,19 1,324 1,393 1,42 1,49 Real GDP Growth Rate (2.7) (3.) (4.4) (4.7) (4.7) (4.6) (.4) Consumer Price Index (13.7) (11.) (7.4) (8.6) (4.) (2.9) (4.2) Current Account Balance (USD mn) 214-4,68-2,496-3,13-2,79-4,867-12,621 Trade Balance (USD mn) -1,12-2,162-19,418-2,14-21,868-23,8-32,176 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 14,28 1,242,16 11,87 17,83 19,6 1,76 External Debt (USD mn) 64,469 62,66 7,881 61,147 6,77 72,697 NA Exchange Rate (PKR/USD)* Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Trade balance is BOP base. Myanmar's Nominal GDP, Real GDP Growth Rate, GDP Per Capita and External Debt are FY (Apr-Mar) base. Myanmar's exchange rate system was transformed from fixed exchange rate system to managed float regime in April 212. Bangladesh and Pakistan's Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, Real GDP Grow th Rate, Current Account Balance and Trade Balance are FY (Jul-Jun) base. Source: ADB, IMF, 1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

11 Appendix2: Comparison of economic indicators in major Asian economies 1. Nominal GDP (USD bn) ,828 8, , ,87 9, , ,3 1, , ,13 1, , ,276 11, , , ,62 12, ,32 2. Population (person mn) ,23. 1, ,21. 1, ,267. 1, ,283. 1, ,299. 1, ,316. 1, GDP Per Capita (USD) 212 3,794 1,82 2,91 6,76 6,174 1,7 1,494 6,326 36,623 21,314 24, ,729 1,9 2,768 7,31 6,493 1,98 1,48 7,11 38,232 21,97 2, ,8 11,189 2,849 7,74 6,27 2,2 1,66 7,642 4,183 22,687 27, ,37 9,41 2,883 4,949 6,18 2,19 1,639 7,978 42,322 22,484 27, ,6 9,399 2,93,26 6,249 2,21 1,72 8,97 43,499 22,62 27, ,878 9,847 2,989 7,724 6,883 2,38 1,977 8,87 46,61 24,317 29, Real GDP Growth Rate Q Q Q Q Consumer Price Index Note: India's figures are FY (Apr-Mar) base. Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, CEIC, 11 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218

12 6. Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD bn) , , , , , , Oct , Nov , Dec , Jan , Feb , Mar , Apr , May , Jun , Jul , Aug , Sep , External Debt (USD bn)(end-of-period value) , , ,78 1, ,383 1, ,416 1, ,711 1, Exchange Rate to USD (Average value during the period) 212 9, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,131 Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, World Bank, Bloomberg, For further details, please contact the Economic Research Office, MUFG Bank Managing Director, Yasuhiro Ishimaru Tel: +81-() Written by Aki Fukuchi <aki_fukuchi@mufg.jp> Yuma Tsuchiya <yuma_tsuchiya@sg.mufg.jp> Makiko Stokes <makiko_stokes@sg.mufg.jp> This report is intended for information purposes only and shall not be construed as solicitation to take any action such as purchasing/selling/investing financial market products. In taking any action, each reader is requested to act on the basis of his or her own judgment. This report is based on information believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. The contents of the report may be revised without advance notice. Also, this report is a literary work protected by the copyright act. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without express statement of its source. This report is also available for viewing online. 12 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 27 November 218