Economic Monthly ASEAN & India

Transcription

1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA, MAKIKO STOKES ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE OCTOBER 8 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON OCTOBER 8) MUFG Bank, Ltd. A member of MUFG, a global financial group. Indonesia The central bank implemented an additional rate hike Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank of Indonesia, decided to raise its benchmark 7-day Reverse Repo Rate by another basis points (bps) (from.% to.7%) at BI board of governors meeting held on -7 September. It is the fifth rate hike since May, bringing a total of bps hike, amid weaker rupiah on the back of USD appreciation and US interest rates rise as well as Indonesia s expanding current account deficit. The government adopted measures to stabilize its currency, such as a biofuel mandate to promote the use of fuel blended with domestic palm biodiesel (from September) and imposing higher corporate income taxes which are prepaid for imported consumer goods (from September). Furthermore, the government said it would review major development projects of state-owned companies which would require large-scale imports of capital goods. Current account deficit recorded USD -8. billion (-.% of Nominal GDP) in Apr-Jun, widened from the previous quarter (USD -.7 billion, -.% of Nominal GDP) as trade balance turned to a deficit for the first time in around four years owing to substantial expansion of imports on the back of solid domestic demand. Looking at financial account balance, direct investment and other investments continued to log a surplus. As a result, overall balance logged a deficit for the second consecutive quarter. 8 7 Chart:Consumer Price and Policy Rate Former Policy Rate CPI: Transportation, Communication and Finance CPI: Education, Recreation and Sports CPI: Health CPI: Clothing CPI: Housing, Electricity, Gas and Fuel CPI: Food Consumer Price Index Current Policy Rate 8 Chart : Balance of Payments (% of Nominal GDP) Net Error & Omissions Other Investment Portfolio Investment Direct Investment Current Account Balance Overall Balance Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), (Year) Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), (Year) Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

2 . Malaysia Sales and Services Tax (SST) was reintroduced The Sales and Services Tax (SST) was reintroduced effective September, replacing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which was withdrawn at the end of August. While GST was a multi-stage tax collected at every stage of the supply chain on the value added to goods sold or services supplied, SST is a single-stage tax collected only once when products shipped or services supplied. Under the SST,, items are taxable (Sales Tax), substantially reduced from,97 items listed under the GST, and, items are exempted (while items were initially determined as zero-rated under the GST). The government said the SST collection per year was expected to be around RM billion, as opposed to the GST collection of RM billion (7 estimates). CPI was +.% YoY in August, three-and-a-half year low Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to +.% YoY in August from the previous month (+.9% YoY), showing the lowest growth in three-and-a-half years. Transport (.% of total share) significantly slowed to +.% YoY from the previous month (+.7% YoY), together with zero rated Goods & Services Tax (GST) effective June, weighed on the overall index. Chart: Sales and Services Tax (SST) Chart : Consumer Price Tax Rate/ Number of Items Sales Tax % Sales Tax % Taxable Items (Definition/Examples) Alcohol, tobacco products,, Taxable goods that are manufactured, sold, used or bags, electrical appliances, toilet papers etc. disposed in Malaysia by a registered manufacturer; or 79 imported into Malaysia Camera, smartphone etc. 8 7 CPI: Others CPI: Communication CPI: Transport CPI: Furnishings, Household Equipment and Maintenance CPI: Housing,Water,Electricity,Gas & Other Fuels CPI: Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages CPI (Overall) (left axis) Policy Rate (right axis) (%) 8 7 Exemption Items listed under Exempted, (Sales Tax) Goods Meat, fish, egg, vegetable, milk, coffee, tea, sugar, bicycle etc. Services Tax % Taxable services that are provided in Malaysia by a registered person Hotel, restaurant, insurance, airline (domestic passenger air transport), credit card, etc. - - Exemption (Services Tax) Restaurant exemption: Canteens in educational institution or religious institution, airlines exemption: international flights and air transport route under Rural Air Services, etc. Note: The government will review the list of goods under the SST by year end Source: Royal Malaysian Customs Department (RMCD), various news reports, Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, (Year) - -. Philippines Exports recorded +.% YoY in July, positive growth for the second consecutive month Exports was +.% YoY in July, registering positive growth, albeit a modest growth, for the second consecutive month. Looking at the breakdown by items, Electronic Products, which account for approximately % of total share, maintained low level particularly in products such as semiconductors. Meanwhile Other Manufactured Products and Mineral Products recovered. Imports also accelerated to +.% YoY. Looking at the breakdown, capital goods such as Telecom Equipment and Electronic Machines and raw materials both accelerated, and consumer goods maintained an increasing trend. As a result, trade balance recorded a deficit of USD -. billion, maintaining high level of deficit. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

3 The central bank implemented bps additional rate hike Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the central bank of Philippines, decided to raise its benchmark Overnight Reverse Repo Rate by bps to.% on 7 September. It was the second consecutive bps rate increase following August and a total of bps hike since May. Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded +.% YoY in August, far exceeding the target range (-%) for the last few months. This is on the back of the implementation of higher excise taxes since January, higher crude oil prices and weaker peso. Trade Balance (right axis) Exports Imports Chart : Trade Balance (USD bn) 7 Chart: Consumer Price and Policy Rate Others Transport Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI: Core Former Policy Rate Current Policy Rate (Year) Note: Exports/Imports figures represent three-month moving average Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, (Year) Source: Philippine Statistics Authority,. Singapore Industrial Production decelerated to +.% YoY in August Industrial Production was +.% YoY in August, decelerating for the third consecutive month. Looking at the breakdown, Electronics (approximately % share of total) slowed to +.% YoY, Biomedical Manufacturing (% share of total) and Chemicals (% share of total) also slowed from the previous month. Meanwhile Marine & Offshore Engineering (% share of total), which has continued to decline for three years until February this year, accelerated to +.% YoY on the back of rise in crude oil prices, increasing for the sixth consecutive month. Employment increased by +, QoQ in Apr-Jun The number of employment was.8 million (+, QoQ) in Apr-Jun, increasing for the third consecutive quarter. Looking at the breakdown by industries, employment in Services increased to.7 million (+7, QoQ). Looking at the breakdown of Services industry, employment in Retail Trade and Accommodation & Food Services declined while employment in highly specialized sectors such as Information & Communications, Financial & Insurance Services, Education and Transportation & Storage increased. Manufacturing was 8, (- QoQ), declining for the second consecutive quarter. While Food and Petroleum and Chemicals continued to increase, Transport Equipment and Materials continued declining following the previous quarter. Construction was, (-7 QoQ), declining for the eighth consecutive quarter. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

4 Chart : Industrial Production Others Chemicals Biomedical Manufacturing Marine & Offshore Engineering Electronics Industrial Production (QoQ, th) Chart : Employment Services Construction Manufacturing Employment Source: Singapore Economic Development Board, (Year) Source: Singapore Ministry of Manpower (MOM), (Yr). Thailand Trade surplus narrowed to USD million in August Exports stood at +.8% YoY in August, remaining solid. Looking at the breakdown of exports by items, Motor Vehicles and Auto Parts accelerated, Petroleum Products and Electronic and Electrical products also continued to increase. Imports also showed high growth of +.% YoY. Looking at the breakdown of imports by items, Electronic Parts, Telecommunication Equipment and Crude and Refined Products accelerated. Furthermore, an increase in import of Gold boosted total imports. As a result, trade surplus narrowed to USD million. CPI slowed to +.% YoY in September Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to +.% YoY in September. Looking at the breakdown, Transport & Communication maintained high growth on the back of rise in fuel prices, while the effect of rise in excise tax on cigarettes and alcoholic beverages last year has been lessened and weighed on the index. Core inflation rate was +.8% YoY, remaining low level. Chart : Trade Balance (USD bn). Chart : Consumer Price... - Trade Balance (right axis) - Exports (left axis) Imports (left axis) (Year) Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), CPI: Others -. CPI: Transport & Communication CPI: Housing & Furnishing CPI: Food & Alcoholic Beverages -. Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI (Core) (Year) Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic indices Ministry of Commerce Thailand, Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

5 Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec. Vietnam Real GDP growth was +.9% YoY in Jul-Sep, remaining solid Real GDP growth slightly accelerated to +.9% YoY in Jul-Sep from +.7% YoY in Apr-Jun. Looking at the growth in Jan-Sep (+7.% YoY) by industries, Services (+.9% YoY) remained solid backed by firm domestic demand and Construction (+8.% YoY) accelerated its growth from Jan-Jun (+7.9% YoY). Manufacturing also remained high (+.7% YoY), supported by export expansion. Meanwhile, Mining and Quarrying (-.% YoY) remained low level. Trade surplus widened to USD. billion Jul-Sep Exports stood at +.% YoY in Jul-Sep, accelerating from the previous quarter (+9.% YoY). While Food, Agricultural and Fishery Products grew at a sluggish pace, Telecommunication Equipment and Parts, Electronic Products and Garments and Footwear remained solid and Coal and Oil accelerated. Meanwhile, imports also accelerated to +.8% from the previous quarter (+.% YoY) mainly boosted by growth of Electronic Products and Motor Vehicles. As a result, trade surplus widened to USD. billon from USD. billion in the previous quarter. Chart:Real GDP Chart : Trade Balance (YTD YoY, %) (YoY,%) Trade Balance (right axis) Exports (left axis) Imports (left axis) (USD bn) Real GDP (%) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery (%) Mining (7%) Manufacturing (7%) Construction (%) Service (9%) Note: Cumulative YTD. Figures in ( ) shows the % share in total GDP (7). Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, (Year) Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, - 7. India Current account deficit widened to -.% of Nominal GDP in Apr-Jun Current account balance was USD -.8 billion (-.% of Nominal GDP) in Apr-Jun, deficit widened from the previous quarter (USD -. billion, -.9% of Nominal GDP). Looking at the breakdown, trade deficit increased to USD -.7 billion from USD -. billion in the previous quarter which led to a widening of current account deficit. Meanwhile, balance on services and balance on income maintained surplus. Looking at financial account balance, a surplus of direct investment widened for the second consecutive quarter and other investments also continued to log a surplus while portfolio investment logged a deficit (USD -8. billion) for the first time in a year-and-a-half. In reaction to weakening rupee, the government on September announced the measures to stabilize the currency such as encouraging capital inflows and curving non-essential imports. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

6 Motor vehicle sales was +.% YoY in August, increasing for the fourteenth consecutive month Motor vehicle sales (based on the shipments by manufacturers) recorded +.% YoY in August, increasing for the fourteenth consecutive month supported by a jump (+9.% YoY) of commercial vehicles sales although passenger vehicles sales recorded a decline ( -.% YoY). (% of Nominal GDP) Chart:Balance of Payments Current Account Portfolio Investment Error FDI Other Investment Overrall Balance Chart : Motor Vehicle Sales Motor Vehicle Sales (right axis) YoY (left axis) (th) Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), (Year) Government of India Central Statistics Offic (CSO), Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), (Year) Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

7 Appendix: Economic indicators in major Asian economies Indonesia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 8 9, Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD),7,, Q 8Q Q Q JUN-8 JUL AUG SEP Real GDP Growth Rate (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Industrial Production Index (.8) (.) (.7) (.) (.) (.) (-.) (9.) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit),,9,,79,79, 7,7 9,, 8,8 7,7,97 (-.) (.9) (.) (-.) (.9) (.8) (-.) (.9) (.) Consumer Price Index* (.) (.) (.8) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.9) Exports (fob) (USD mn),,8 8,7,,7,7,97,9,88 (-.) (-.) (.) (.) (8.8) (.) (.) (9.7) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn),9,,99,9,99,9,8 8,97,8 (-9.9) (-.9) (.7) (.) (.) (.) (.8) (.7) (.7) Trade Balance (USD mn) 7,7 9,, ,7,77 -,7 -, Current Account Balance (USD mn) -7,9 -,9-7,7 -,8 -,77-8,8 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),8,9,87,87, BI Rate 7. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate Exchange Rate (IDR/USD)*,9,,8,,8,79,97,,,,87 Stock Index,9.,9.7,.7,.7,89.,799.,97.,799.,9.,8.,97. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate w as adopted as benchmark on August 9,. Source: Bank Indonesia (BI), CEIC, Bloomberg etc, Malaysia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q 8Q Q Q JUN-8 JUL AUG SEP GDP Per Capita (USD) 9, 9,99 9,87 Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.) (.9) (.9) (.) (.) Industrial Production Index (.) (.) (.) (.) (.9) (.8) (.) (.) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit),7 8,8 7,7,9,8,7, 8,, (.) (-.) (-.) (-.7) (-.) (7.) (8.) (.) (.8) Consumer Price Index (.) (.) (.8) (.) (.8) (.) (.8) (.9) (.) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 99,88 89,798 7,77 8,879,,7 9,, (-.9) (-.7) (.7) (.8) (9.) (8.7) (.) (.8) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 7, 8, 9,79,,, 8, 9, (-.7) (-.) (.) (9.) (.) (8.9) (.) (.8) Trade Balance (USD mn),,,978,7 8,,897,,9 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 9,9 7, 9,,7,87 99 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 9,979 9,7,878,878,,8,8,979 Three-month KLIBOR (%) Exchange Rate (MYR/USD)* Stock Index,9.,.7,79.8,79.8,8.,9.,79.,9.,78.,89.7,79. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), CEIC etc, Philippines Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 9 Population (person mn) Q 8Q Q Q JUN-8 JUL AUG SEP GDP Per Capita (USD),88,9,989 Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.9) (.7) (.) (.) (.) Industrial Production Index (.) (.9) (-.) (-7.) (.) (.) (.) (.8) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit),,88 7,9,8 8,7 8,98 9,9 8, (9.) (.9) (7.) (.) (-8.) (-.) (-.9) (-.) Consumer Price Index (.7) (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.7) (.) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 8,87 7, 8,7,88,8 7,,8,8 (-.) (-.) (9.7) (.) (-.) (-.) (.8) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 7,7 8,8 9,9,77, 7, 9, 9,97 (8.7) (8.) (.) (.) (.9) (9.) (.) (.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -, -,7-7,8-9,87-8,8 -,8 -,88 -, Current Account Balance (USD mn) 7, -,99 -, -, - -,9-8 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 7,9 7, 7, 7, 7, 9, 9, 8,9 7, TB Rate.8. NA NA Exchange Rate (PHP/USD)* Stock Index,9.,8. 8,8. 8,8. 7, ,9.7 7,7.8 7,9.7 7,7. 7,8.7 7,7.8 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales: Quarterly/Monthly sales are based on data by Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) /only Calender Year sales include data by Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors (AVID) (some are duplicated). Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas(BSP), IMF, CEIC etc, 7 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

8 Singapore Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q 8Q Q Q JUN-8 JUL AUG SEP GDP Per Capita (USD),99, 7,7 Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.9) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (-.) (.7) (.) (.8) (.8) (.) ( 8.) (.7) (.) Real Retail Sales Index (RSI) (.) (.) (.) (.) (-.8) (.) (.) (-.) Consumer Price Index (-.) (-.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.7) Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 9,8,9,,9 8, 8,,9 8,9, (-.) (-.) (.) (.) (.) (9.) (8.) (.) (.) Imports (cif) (SGD mn),,,,98,8,,,,8 (-.) (-.7) (.) (9.) (.8) (.) (.7) (.) (.) Trade Balance (SGD mn) 8,,7,899,9,8,,9,7, Current Account Balance (SGD mn) 77,8 8,97 8, 7,7,,8 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 7,, 79,9 79,9 8,9 87,8 87,8 89, Three-month SIBOR (SGD,%) Exchange Rate (SGD/USD)* Stock Index,88.7,88.8,.9,.9,8.,8.7,7.,8.7,9.9,.,7. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Singapore Department of Statistics, CEIC etc, Thailand Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn).7.9. GDP Per Capita (USD),8,9,88 7 7Q 8Q Q Q JUN-8 JUL AUG SEP Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.9) (.) Industrial Production Index (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.7) (.) (.9) (.7) Private Consumption Indicator (.) (.8) (.7) (.) (.) (.) (.7) (.) (.) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 799, 78,788 87,7,9 7,9, 87,8 8,9 8,8 (-9.) (-.9) (.) (8.) (.) (.) (.9) (.7) (7.7) Consumer Price Index (-.9) (.) (.7) (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Unemployment Rate (%)* Exports (fob) (USD mn),,,7,,788,,7,,8 (-.) (.) (9.8) (.) (9.9) (.) (.) (8.) (.8) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 87,8 77,7,7,98, 7, 8,88 9,,77 (-.) (-.) (.) (.) (7.9) (.8) (.9) (.) (.) Trade Balance (USD mn),798,9, 7,,,8,87 88 Current Account Balance (USD mn), 8,8,,9,7,,,8 7 Capital and Financial Account (USD mn) -,799 -,8 -,9 -, -, -,9-7, -8 -,7 External Debt (USD mn),78,8,, 7,8, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),,7 9, 9, 9,,9,9 99, 98,9 One-day Repo Rate (%) Exchange Rate (THB/USD)* Stock Index,88.,.9,7.7,7.7,77.,9., Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), NESDB, CEIC etc, Vietnam Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 9 Population (person mn) Q 8Q Q Q JUN-8 JUL AUG SEP GDP Per Capita (USD),9,,8 Real GDP Growth Rate (.7) (.) (.8) (7.7) (7.) (.7) (.9) Industrial Production Index (9.8) (7.) (9.) (.) (.7) (8.) (.7) (.) (.) (.) (9.) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 8,8 7,8,,78 8,8,,7, 9, (.) (.) (-7.8) (-.) (-.7) (-.) (-.) (.) (-7.) Consumer Price Index (.) (.7) (.) (.7) (.8) (.8) (.) (.7) (.) (.) (.) Exports (fob) (USD mn),7 7,8,9,9,8 8,, 9,8,,8, (7.9) (9.) (.8) (.) (.) (9.) (.) (.) (.8) (8.) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn),7 7,8,7 7,8,98 7,,8 9,,9,8 9,8 (.) (.) (.9) (7.) (.7) (.) (.8) (.9) (.) (.) (8.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -,,777,,9,7,7, 799 -,97 7 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 9 8,,,8,9, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 8,,7 9,7 9,7, Refinancing Rate Exchange Rate (VND/USD)*,9,,78,77,7,8,,8,98,9,88 Stock Index , , ,7. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), IMF, CEIC etc, 8 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

9 India Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn),,7, Population (person mn),8,99, FY FY FY7 FY7Q FY7Q FY8Q FY8Q JUN-8 JUL AUG SEP GDP Per Capita (USD),9,7,977 Real GDP Growth Rate (8.) (7.) (.7) ( 7.) ( 7.7) ( 8.) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (.) (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.9) (.) Motor Vehicle Sales: Passenger Vehicle (PV),789,8,7,79,88, 79,9 8,8 87, 7,79 9,9 87,8 (7.) (9.) (7.9) (.) (7.) (9.9) (7.) (-.7) (-.) Wholesale Price Index (-.) (.8) (.9) (.8) (.8) (.7) (.7) (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.8) (.9) (.) (.7) Exports (fob) (SGD mn),9 7,8,7 77, 8, 8,97 7,,9 7,87 (-.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (8.7) (.) (9.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 8,8 8,7,7,9,7 8,9,89,79, (-.) (.9) (.9) (7.9) (.) (.) (.9) (8.) (.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -8,77-8, -, -,98 -,78 -, -7,89-7,8-7, Current Account Balance (USD mn) -,88 -, -8, -,7 -,7 -,87 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),89,9,7 89,,7 8, 8, 8,777 Repo Rate(%) Exchange Rate (INR/USD)* Stock Index, 9,,99,7,99,,7, 7,7 8,,7 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. "Motor Vehicle Sales" include Utility Vehicle (UV) and Multipurpose Vehicle (MPV). Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Central Statistics Office, CEIC etc, 9 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

10 Cambodia Major Economic Indicators 7 Nominal GDP (USD bn) 7 8 Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,,,,, Real GDP Growth Rate (7.) (7.) (7.) (7.) (.9) (7.) (.9) Consumer Price Index (.) (.9) (.9) (.9) (.) (.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -,9 -, -,7 -,8 -,7 -,97 -,8 Trade Balance (USD mn) -,7 -,8 -, -,8 -,99 -,8 -,78 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),,7,,,88 8,9, External Debt (USD mn),7,8 7, 7,9 9,8, NA Exchange Rate (KHR/USD)*,9,,7,8,8,9, Myanmar Major Economic Indicators 7 Nominal GDP (USD bn) 9 7 Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD),8,7,9,,,9, Real GDP Growth Rate. ( 7.) ( 8.) ( 8.) ( 7.) (.9) (.8) Consumer Price Index (.) (.) ( 8.9) (.) ( 9.) (.9) (.) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -, -,8 - -,9 -,9 -, -,78 Trade Balance (USD mn) -9 -, -, -, -,9 -, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 7,,9 8,,8,,9,9 External Debt (USD mn) 8,9 7,8 7,,,7, NA Exchange Rate (MMK/USD)* ,.,.87,. Bangladesh Major Economic Indicators 7 Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,,,7, Real GDP Growth Rate. (.) (.) (.) (.) (7.) (7.) Consumer Price Index (.9) (8.7) (.8) (7.) (.) (.9) (.) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -,8-7,88,9,9, -,8 Trade Balance (USD mn) -, -,7 -, -,8 -,9 -,8-9,7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 8,, 7,,78 7,,77,89 External Debt (USD mn) 7,77 8,9,99, 8,88, NA Exchange Rate (BDT/USD)* Pakistan Major Economic Indicators 7 Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD),9,88,9,,9,,9 Real GDP Growth Rate (.7) (.) (.) (.7) (.7) (.) (.) Consumer Price Index (.7) (.) (7.) (8.) (.) (.9) (.) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -,8 -,9 -, -,79 -,87 -, Trade Balance (USD mn) -, -, -9,8 -, -,88 -,8 -,7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),8,,,87 7,8 9,,7 External Debt (USD mn),9, 7,88,7,77 7,97 NA Exchange Rate (PKR/USD)* Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Trade balance is BOP base. Myanmar's Nominal GDP, Real GDP Growth Rate, GDP Per Capita and External Debt are FY (Apr-Mar) base. Myanmar's exchange rate system was transformed from fixed exchange rate system to managed float regime in April. Bangladesh and Pakistan's Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, Real GDP Grow th Rate, Current Account Balance and Trade Balance are FY (Jul-Jun) base. Source: ADB, IMF, Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

11 Appendix: Comparison of economic indicators in major Asian economies. Nominal GDP (USD bn) ,88 8, 97, 9 7 7,87 9,8 7, ,, 9, ,,97 9 8,8 9 97,7,9, 7,,, 7,. Population (person mn) ,., ,., ,7., ,8., ,99., ,., GDP Per Capita (USD),79,8,9,7,7,7,9,,,,7,79,9,78 7,,9,98,8 7, 8,,97,9,8,89,89 7,7,7,, 7,,8,87 7,87,7 9,,88,99,8,9,9 7,978,,8 7,, 9,99,9,,9,,7 8,97,99, 7, 7,878 9,87,989 7,7,88,8,977 8,87,,7 9,78. Real GDP Growth Rate Q Q Q Q.9. Consumer Price Index Note: India's figures are FY (Apr-Mar) base. Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, CEIC, Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8

12 . Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD bn) , , , , , ,9 8 Sep ,8 9 8 Oct ,8 9 8 Nov ,8 8 Dec ,9 8 Jan ,8 9 Feb-8 7 8, 9 Mar , 9 Apr , 9 May ,9 9 Jun , 9 Jul ,7 98 Aug External Debt (USD bn)(end-of-period value) , , ,78, ,8, ,, ,7, Exchange Rate to USD (Average value during the period) 9, , ,7,8....7, ,9, , ,, , ,, , , 7, , , Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, World Bank, Bloomberg, For further details, please contact the Economic Research Office, MUFG Bank Managing Director, Yasuhiro Ishimaru Tel: +8-()-- Written by Aki Fukuchi <aki_fukuchi@mufg.jp> Yuma Tsuchiya <yuma_tsuchiya@sg.mufg.jp> Makiko Stokes <makiko_stokes@sg.mufg.jp> This report is intended for information purposes only and shall not be construed as solicitation to take any action such as purchasing/selling/investing financial market products. In taking any action, each reader is requested to act on the basis of his or her own judgment. This report is based on information believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. The contents of the report may be revised without advance notice. Also, this report is a literary work protected by the copyright act. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without express statement of its source. This report is also available for viewing online. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India October 8