Broad Money and Its Affecting Factors

Transcription

1 Broad Money and Its Affecting Factors wa ember The growth of liquidity in the economy, or broad money (M2), grew at 9.2% (yoy) in ember, down from 10.4% (yoy) the month earlier. By component, growth of M1 (currency outside banks and rupiah demand deposits) and quasi-money (term deposits and savings deposits in rupiah and a foreign currency, as well as foreign currency demand deposits), which decelerated respectively from 10.2% (yoy) and 10.6% (yoy) in ober to 10.0% (yoy) and 9.2% (yoy), contributed to slower M2 growth. Based on its i determinants, sluggish M2 growth was attributed to Net Foreign Assets (NFA) and claims on other sectors, specifically credit. NFA growth slowed from 2.6% (yoy) to 2.4% (yoy) in ember. Furthermore, weaker M2 growth was also blamed on a slump in credit growth, falling from 10.1% (yoy) to 9.5% (yoy). Lending rates were lowered again in ember, with mixed movements reported in terms of deposit rates. The average lending rate was reduced from 12.90% to 12.89%, while the interest rates offered on 3, 6 and 12-month term deposits were lowered slightly from 7.99%, 8.51% and 8.51% to 7.90%, 8.50% and 8.44% respectively. In contrast, the average rate on 1-month term deposits was raised from 7.48% to 7.50% in the reporting period. Graph 1. Growth of GDP, Money Supply, Deposits and Loans Table 1. Money Supply % (yoy) '15 Broad Money (M2) 4, , Narrow Money (M1) 1, , o/w: Currency Outside Commercial and Rural Banks Quasi Money 3, , Securities Other Than Shares (12.5) (31.5) Since January 2012, BPR included BPR Syariah *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ober THE COMPONENTS OF MONEY SUPPLY The growth of liquidity in the economy, or broad money (M2) ( 1, tracked a decelerating trend on the month earlier. In ember, the position of M2 stood at Rp4,451.6 trillion, with growth slowing from 10.4% (yoy) to 9.2% (yoy). Sluggish growth of M1 and quasi-money 2 contributed to the slowdown, while securities other than shares experienced a deeper contraction. M1, which is a measure of Currency Outside Banks (COB) and rupiah demand deposits, was recorded at Rp1,051.3 trillion, with growth decelerating from 10.2% (yoy) in ober to 10.0% (yoy) on the back of weaker growth of currency outside banks, falling from 9.8% (yoy) to 7.9% (yoy), while rupiah demand deposits bucked the downward trend to recorded accelerating growth. The position of quasi-money in ember 1 Money supply is defined as the narrow (M1) and broad (M2) aggregates. M1 is a measure of Currency Outside Banks (COB) and rupiah demand deposits, while M2 consists of M1, quasi-money and securities issued by the monetary system and held by the private sector with remaining maturity of up to one year. 2 Quasi-money consists of private deposits, including term deposits and savings deposits (denominated in rupiah and a foreign currency) as well as foreign currency demand deposits. DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 1

2 Deposits Table 2. Deposits % (yoy) Rupiah 3, , Demand Deposit Saving Deposit 1, , Time Deposit 1, , Foreign Currency Demand Deposit Saving Deposit Time Deposit Total 4, , Demand Deposit Saving Deposit 1, , Time Deposit 1, , *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ober Table 3. Factors Affecting the Money Supply % yoy '15 Factors Affecting Broad Money 4, , Net Foreign Assets 1, , Net Domestic Assets 3, , Net Claims on Central Government Claims on Central Government Liabilities to Central Government (0.5) (3.0) Claims on Other Sector 4, , o/w: Loans 4 3, , Shares and Other Equity (1,136.6) (1,156.8) Net Other Items (20.8) 89.8 Since January 2012, BPR included BPR Syariah *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ober Table 4. Loans to the Manufacturing and Construction Sectors Credit % yoy Working Capital Loans 1, , o/w Manufacturing Industry Construction (12.5) Investment Credit o/w Manufacturing Industry Construction Since January 2012, BPR included BPR Syariah *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ober Table 5. MSME Loans by Commercial Banks yoy (%) '15 '15 Business Scale Micro Small Medium Type of Loans Working Capital Loans Invesment Loans stood at Rp3,385.4 trillion, with growth sliding from 10.6% (yoy) the month earlier to 9.2% (yoy). The slowdown stemmed from term deposits and foreign currency demand deposits. Congruously, private deposits (third-party deposits) held at banks 3 also tracked slower growth in the reporting period. The position of private deposits in ember stood at Rp4,247.2 trillion, with growth decelerating from 9.0% (yoy) to 8.0% (yoy), which was primarily attributed to foreign currency deposits (Table 2). DETERMINANTS OF MONEY SUPPLY The M2 slowdown was primarily ascribed to sluggish credit growth and Net Foreign Assets (NFA). The position of outstanding credit at the end of ember stood at Rp3,977.3 trillion, with growth decelerating from 10.1% (yoy) the month earlier to 9.5% (yoy). Meanwhile, NFA growth slowed from 2.6% (yoy) to 2.4% (yoy) over the same period (Table 3). Weaker credit growth was attributed to productive loans in the form of working capital credit and investment credit. The position of working capital credit was recorded at Rp1,852.8 trillion as growth declined from 8.6% (yoy) in ober to 7.6% (yoy). Meanwhile, outstanding investment credit totalled Rp982.8 trillion with growth recorded at 10.7% (yoy), down from 12.7% (yoy) the month earlier (Table 4). Sluggish working capital credit and investment credit growth primarily affected construction and property loans in line with domestic economic moderation. Construction credit in terms of working capital credit experienced a -12.5% (yoy) contraction, reversing the previous growth trend of positive 15.5% (yoy). Meanwhile, construction credit growth in terms of investment credit decelerated from 20.5% (yoy) to 15.9% (yoy). Congruently, growth of credit allocated to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) also 3 Private deposits are third-party deposits held at commercial banks and rural banks in the form of demand deposits, savings deposits and term deposits denominated in rupiah or a foreign currency. In terms of money supply, private deposits exclude those blocked due to a loss of function. For analysis purposes, however, private deposits include blocked deposits and third-party deposits (excluding the Government and non-residents) denominated in rupiah and a foreign currency held at commercial banks and rural banks (excluding branches operating internationally) in the form of demand deposits, savings deposits and term deposits. DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 2

3 moderated from 9.4% (yoy) last month to 9.2% (yoy), therefore amounting to Rp721.5 trillion in the reporting period. The downswing primarily affected small enterprises as growth decelerated from 5.5% (yoy) to 3.5% (yoy) in the same period (Table 5). Graph 2. Lending for the Trade, Hotels and Restaurants Sector, Property and Manufacturing Table e 6. Property Credit % (yoy) Property Loans Housing and Apartment Ownership Credits Construction Credits Real Estate Credits *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ober Credit extended to the property sector also experienced slower growth. In ember, outstanding property credit was recorded at Rp614.6 trillion, with growth decelerating from 12.1% (yoy) to 11.5% (yoy) and affecting mortgage facilities, construction loans and real estate loans (Table 6). DEPOSITS AND LENDING RATES Lending rates 4 were again lowered in ember, with mixed movements reported in terms of deposit rates. The average lending rate was reduced moderately from 12.90% to 12.89%, while the interest rates offered on 3, 6 and 12- month term deposits were lowered slightly from 7.99%, 8.51% and 8.51% to 7.90%, 8.50% and 8.44% respectively. In contrast, the average rate on 1-month term deposits was raised from 7.48% to 7.50% in the reporting period (Graph 3). Graph 3. Developments in the BI Rate and Time Deposit and Loan Interest Rates FEBRUARY MONETARY AND FISCAL STATISTICS DIVISION STATISTICS DEPARTMENT 4 Interest rates are calculated based solely on commercial banks, excluding rural banks. DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 3

4 Appendix 1. Money Supply and Its Affecting Factors 2014 Description Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Broad Money (M2) 4, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,451.6 Narrow Money (M1) , , , , , ,051.3 Currency Outside Commercial and Rural Banks Rupiah Demand Deposits Quasi Money 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,385.4 Time Deposits 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,835.2 Rupiah 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,583.2 Foreign Currency Savings Deposits 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,275.6 Rupiah 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,158.6 Foreign Currency Foreign Currency Demand Deposits Securities Other Than Shares Factors Affecting Broad Money 4, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,451.6 Net Foreign Assets 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,128.8 Net Domestic Assets 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,322.8 Net Claims on Central Government Claims on Central Government Liabilities to Central Government Claims on Other Sector 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,243.9 Claims on Other Financial Institutions: Loans Other Claims Claims on State and Local Government: Loans Other Claims Claims on Public NonFinancial Corporations: Loans Other Claims Claims on Private Sectors 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,753.7 Loans 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,587.2 Other Claims Shares and Other Equity (991.5) (1,006.4) (1,027.3) (1,060.1) (1,075.0) (1,076.7) (1,058.1) (1,071.8) (1,082.9) (1,095.1) (1,138.1) (1,187.5) (1,136.6) (1,156.8) Net Other Items Since January 2012 BPR included BPR Syariah In Money Supply Statistics (Appendix 1), credit extended includes Loans, Banker s Acceptances, and Repo claim. *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ober DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 4

5 Appendix 2. Money Supply Growth and its Affecting Factors t Description 2014 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Broad Money (M2) Narrow Money (M1) Currency Outside Commercial and Rural Banks (4.7) Rupiah Demand Deposits Quasi Money Time Deposits Rupiah Foreign Currency Savings Deposits Rupiah Foreign Currency Foreign Currency Demand Deposits (4.8) Securities Other Than Shares (11.8) (5.2) 2.9 (16.0) (4.1) (12.5) (31.5) Factors Affecting Broad Money Net Foreign Assets Net Domestic Assets Net Claims on Central Government Claims on Central Government Liabilities to Central Government (5.9) (1.4) (15.9) (9.8) 2.9 (2.5) (6.3) 1.7 (14.6) (0.5) (3.0) Claims on Other Sector Claims on Other Financial Institutions: (1) Loans (1) (5) Other Claims Claims on State and Local Government: (1) (2) (3) Loans (1) (2) (3) Other Claims (21) (21) (21) (21) (21) (21) Claims on Public NonFinancial Corporations: (2) Loans (8) (2) (3) Other Claims Claims on Private Sectors Loans Other Claims (15.4) Shares and Other Equity Net Other Items (48.8) (7.9) (20.8) 89.8 Since January 2012 BPR included BPR Syariah In Money Supply Statistics (Appendix 1), credit extended includes Loans, Banker s Acceptances, and Repo claim. *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ober Appendix 3. Private Deposits in the Banking System Deposits 2014 Des Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Rupiah 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,544.9 Demand Deposit Saving Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,193.3 Time Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,694.4 Foreign Currency Demand Deposit Saving Deposit Time Deposit Total 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,247.2 Demand Deposit , , Saving Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,312.0 Time Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,971.5 Exchange Rate Rp/USD 12, , , , , , , , , , , , ,840.0 *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of ober Jul Aug Sep DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 5

6 Appendix 4. Bank Lending to the Domestic Private Sector 2014 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Currency of Denomination Rupiah 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,404.2 Foreign Currency Type of Loans Investment Loans Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishery Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Industry Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel, and Restaurant Transport and Communication Financial, Ownership & Business Services Services Working Capital Loans 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,852.8 Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishery Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Industry Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel, and Restaurant Transport and Communication Financial, Ownership & Business Services Services Consumer Loans 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,141.7 Total 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,977.3 Total 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,977.3 DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 6