Economic Monthly ASEAN & India

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1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE 13 NOVEMBER 17 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON OCTOBER 17) The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. A member of MUFG, a global financial group 1. Indonesia Motor vehicle sales in August was +.% YoY, increased for two consecutive months Motor vehicle sales in August stood at +.% YoY. After significantly fluctuate June (-7.4% YoY) and July (+37.9% YoY) due to the seasonal factor (Lebaran holiday), the data maintained its increasing trend for two consecutive months although August showed a rather moderate increase. Motor vehicle sales continue to recover as the effects caused by negative factors such as increase in gasoline prices due to reduced subsidies and rise in imported car prices affected by weaker rupiah have been settled. Sales growth of low-cost and low-fuel consumption cars continues to boost total sales. The central bank cut policy rate for two consecutive months Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, cut its benchmark interest rate from 4.% to 4.% on September, following a similar cut in August when BI lowered its policy rate for the first time since October 16. In a statement, BI said there was room for the rate cut as inflation would be projected to remain within its target, among other factors. The fact that no turmoil in financial markets has been observed since the US Federal Reserve Bank decided to initiate the balance sheet normalization program (on September 19, ) also encouraged the rate cut (thousands) Chart1:Motor Vehicle Sales Motor Vehicle Sales(left axis) YoY(right axis) (Year) Note: The latest data is average in Jul-Aug. Source: Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO), Others Chart:Inflation & Policy Rates Transportation, Communication & Finance Housing, Electricity, Gas & Fuel Foods Former Policy Rate Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), CPI Current Policy Rate (Year) 1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17

2 . Malaysia Industrial production in July accelerated to +6.% YoY Industrial Production in July was +6.% YoY, accelerated from the previous month. By sectors, mining grew at a sluggish pace while manufacturing showed solid expansion. Looking at the main items in manufacturing sector, electric and electronic products grew stronger at +1.% YoY and transportation machinery recorded +6.8% YoY backed by factors such as bottoming out of domestic automobile sales. Looking at export oriented/domestic oriented industries, while both bottomed out around the second half of last year, export oriented industries, supported by export expansion, showed a rapid growth. Motor vehicle sales in August decreased to -1.% YoY Motor vehicle sales in August decreased to -1.% YoY partially in reaction to the previous month s strong growth (+14.3% YoY). Though motor vehicle sales had recorded year-on-year losses throughout 16 due to economic downturn and slow recovery of consumer sentiment, they have been hitting bottom since January 17 owing a spate of new models released by various auto makers as well as recovery of sentiments on rising exports. Chart 1: Manufacturing Production Chart : Motor Vehicle Sales (Year) Note: The latest figure represents July 17 Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), 3. Philippines Export Oriented Industries Production Manufacturing Production Domestic Oriented Industries Production Bank loans in August accelerated to +17.9% YoY Bank loans (total of Universal and Commercial Banks) in August slightly decelerated to +17.9% YoY yet maintained strong growth. Looking at economic activities, on the back of strong domestic demand fueled by consumption, household consumption (8% share) kept high growth of +.8% YoY driven by auto loans, and manufacturing (13% share) also increased for three consecutive months although the growth rate (13.1% YoY) was relatively lower. Meanwhile, real estate activities (17% share) slowed to +18.% YoY. Current account balance in Apr-Jun turned to modest surplus Current account balance in Apr-Jun turned to surplus for the first time in five quarters although the surplus of USD million was rather modest. Trade deficit widened due to an increase in imports on the back of strong domestic demand, while surplus widened in both balance on services, supported by increased receipts in tourism category and business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, and balance on income, driven by increased inflow of overseas (thousands) Motor Vehicle Sales (left axis) Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY,%) (right axis) Motor Vehicle Sales (Trend) (right axis) (YoY,%) (Year) Note: The latest figure represents the average of Jul-Aug 17. Trend refers to three-quarter moving average. Source: Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17

3 workers remittances, resulted in a boost to the current account surplus position. Chart 1: Bank Loans Chart : Current Account Balance 3 1 (USD billions) Current Account (CA) (% of GDP)(right axis) (% of GDP) Total Loans Loans (Manufacturing) Loans (Real Estate) Loans (Household Consumption) Jan-16 Apr Jul Oct Jan-17 Apr Jul (Year/Month) Note: Loans are the total of Universal & Commercial Banks Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), - CA: Secondary Income -1 CA: Primary Income CA: Services -4 CA: Goods -1 Current Account (CA) (Year) Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), - 4. Singapore Property prices for private residential in Jul-Sep rose on QoQ basis, first time in four years Property prices of private residential (PR) in Jul-Sep recorded +.% QoQ, rose for the first time in four years. By categories, prices in both PR landed and PR non-landed rose. By regions, prices in core central region and rest of central region rose. Property prices of PR had continued to rise from 9 to 13 and increased around 1.-fold during that period, followed by a fall partially due to the government s policy to curb property speculation. Meanwhile, property prices of office space, shop space and industrial space are still falling. Employment in Apr-Jun was -7,3 QoQ Total employment in Apr-Jun stood at 3.69 million (-7,3 QoQ), declined for two consecutive quarters. By sectors, manufacturing was 491,6 (-, QoQ), extended declines for the last 11 quarters. Construction was 466,1 (-9,8 QoQ), decreased for four consecutive quarters. Meanwhile, services was.674milion (+4,9 QoQ), maintained its increasing trend. In services sector, the employment increased notably in relatively highly specialized businesses such as finance and insurance, education, and healthcare. Chart 1: Property Price Index Chart : Employment (Q1 9=1) Industrial Space Private Residential Office Space Shop Space 4 3 (QoQ, thousands) Services Construction Manufacturing Employment (Year) Source: Singapore Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), (Year) Source: Singapore Ministry of Manpower (MOM), 3 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17

4 . Thailand Exports in August accelerated to +1.8% YoY Exports in August accelerated to +1.8% YoY. By destinations, exports to China and other Asia countries/regions led the total exports. By items, processed agricultural and fishery products such as agricultural products, natural rubber and sugar, electronic components and electronic equipment, and petroleum products all supported the exports. Consumer Price in September accelerated to +.9% YoY Consumer Price in September stood at +.9% YoY, remained at lower level although it accelerated for three consecutive months and hit seven-months high. By items, transport & communication and housing & furnishing recorded strong growth on the back of rising fuel prices and higher electricity prices while rise in retail prices of tobacco & alcoholic beverages boosted the consumer inflation. Meanwhile, the core index was +.4% YoY, remained at low level. 1 1 Chart 1: Exports by destinations Others Australia (%) Japan (1%) Europe (1%) US (11%) Asia(Ex.China 37%) China (11%) Total 3 1 Chart : Consumer Price Others CPI:Transport & Communication CPI: Housing & Furnishing CPI: Food & Beverages CPI: Total CPI: Core (Year) Note: USD basis, Exports FOB. Figures in brackets represent % of exports in 16. The latest figure represents the average of Jul-Aug 17. Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), (Year) Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic indices Ministry of Commerce (MOC) Thailand, 6. Vietnam Real GDP growth in Jul-Sep accelerated to +7.% YoY Real GDP growth in Jul-Sep was +7.% YoY, accelerated from Apr-Jun (+6.3% YoY) and registered +6.4% YoY in. Looking at growth rate in by sectors, manufacturing grew at higher pace of +1.8% YoY, and services posted a solid growth of +7.% YoY. Meanwhile mining was -8.1% YoY, fell far below the level of previous year. In case real GDP in Oct-Dec manages to maintain growth of around +7.3% YoY, it is likely to achieve the government s yearly growth target of +6.7% YoY. Trade Balance in Jul-Sep recorded a surplus of.3billion Exports in Jul-Sep came in at +1.9% YoY, slightly decelerated from +.% YoY in Apr-Jun. Main items such as telephone and spare parts, electronic products maintained a solid growth, clothing and footwear accelerated while machinery and transportation machinery slowed. Imports recorded +1.6% YoY, also decelerated from the previous month, resulted in trade surplus of USD.3billion, turning to surplus for the first time in a year. 4 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17

5 Jan-Mar Jan-Mar Jan-Mar Jan-Mar Jan-Mar Jan-Mar 1 (YTD YoY, %) Chart 1: Real GDP 3 Chart : Trade Balance (USD billions) Real GDP Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery (1%) Mining (8%) Manufacturing Construction (16%) (6%) Services (39%) Note: Cumulative YTD. Figures in brackets represent % of GDP (16) Source: General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam, - -3 Trade Balance Exports Imports (Year) Source: General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam, India Current account deficit in Apr-Jun expanded to.4% of nominal GDP Current account balance in Apr-Jun came in at -USD14.3billionth (-.4% of GDP) with deficit expanded from the previous quarter. Primary and secondary income remained mostly unchanged from the previous quarter, while imports increased substantially and widened the deficit of current account (CA): Goods consequently. As for financial account balance, direct investment and securities investment continued to maintain surplus. Industrial Production in July was +1.% YoY, remained low Industrial Production in July came in at +1.% YoY, remaining at lower level. By sectors, manufacturing was +.1% YoY, weighed on the total index. Looking at the type of goods, there has been a decline since early 17 in the production of consumer durable goods such as automobiles, capital goods and intermediate goods. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered the forecast of real GDP growth for the current fiscal year from +7.3% YoY to +6.7% YoY. The RBI said that the current economic slowdown would be temporary, while pointed that the introduction of the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) in July has led to softening in manufacturing sector through inventory control, among others. Chart 1: Balance of Payments Chart : Industrial Production (to Nominal GDP, %) 1 IPI: Electricity IPI: Mining Industrial Production Index (IPI) IPI: Manufacturing Current Account FDI Portfolio Investment Other Investment Error Overrall Balance (Year) Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Government of India Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Note: The latest figure represents July 17. Source: Government of India Central Statistical Organisation, (Year) Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17

6 Appendix1: Economic indicators in major Asian economies Indonesia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 3,3 3,371 3, Q4 17Q1 Q Q3 JUN-17 JUL AUG SEP Real GDP Growth Rate Industrial Production Index Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 1,8,19 1,13,91 1,6,79 79,888 83,76 49,746 66,389 8,33 96, Consumer Price Index* (6.4) (6.4) (3.) (3.3) (3.6) (4.3) (3.8) (4.4) (3.9) (3.8) (3.7) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 17,98 1,366 14,63 4,7 4,694 39,81 11,66 13,611 1, Imports (cif) (USD mn) 178,179 14,69 13,63 36,99 36,66 3,74 9,99 13,886 13, Trade Balance (USD mn) -,199 7,671 9,41 3,116 4,88 3,76 1, ,73 Current Account Balance (USD mn) -7,1-17,19-16,769-1,897 -,363-4,963 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 18,836 13,68 113, , ,66 119, ,949 14,48 BI Rate day Reverse Repo Rate Exchange Rate (IDR/USD)* 11,868 13,39 13,36 13,49 13,346 13,39 13,33 13,3 13,346 13,34 13,38 Stock Index,6.9 4,93.,96.7,96.7,68.1,89.7,9.9,89.7,84.9,864.1,9.9 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate w as adopted as benchmark on August 19, 16. Source: Bank Indonesia (BI), CEIC, Bloomberg etc, Malaysia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q4 17Q1 Q Q3 JUN-17 JUL AUG SEP GDP Per Capita (USD) 11,16 9,34 9,39 Real GDP Growth Rate ( 6.) (.) ( 4.) ( 4.) (.6) (.8) Industrial Production Index (.) ( 4.7) ( 3.8) (.) ( 4.3) ( 4.3) ( 4.) ( 6.) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 666, ,716 8,67 161,79 14,84 143,61,7 48,3 1, Consumer Price Index ( 3.1) (.1) (.1) ( 1.7) ( 4.3) ( 4.) ( 3.6) ( 3.) ( 3.7) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 33, , ,798,41,36,66 17,87 18, Imports (cif) (USD mn) 8, ,3 168,3 43,94 46,91 46,79 14,774 16, Trade Balance (USD mn),78 3,13 1,4 6,479 4,4,7,313 1,87 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 14,848 9,69 6,94,884 1,18,6 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 114,7 93,979 93,7 93,7 93,879 97,394 97,394 97,938 99,38 Three-month KLIBOR (%) Exchange Rate (MYR/USD)* Stock Index 1, ,69. 1, , ,74.1 1, ,7.6 1, ,76. 1,773. 1,7.6 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), CEIC etc, Philippines Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q4 17Q1 Q Q3 JUN-17 JUL AUG SEP GDP Per Capita (USD),849,883,93 Real GDP Growth Rate (6.1) (6.1) (6.9) (6.6) (6.4) (6.) Industrial Production Index Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 7,31 33,1 43,688 98, 94,6 1,138 37,631 36,91 3,39 (7.1) (19.6) (4.9) (19.3) (3.) (1.) (14.1) (3.3) (8.7) Consumer Price Index (4.) (1.4) (1.8) (.) (3.) (3.1) (3.1) (.7) (.8) (3.1) (3.4) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 6,1 8,87 7,46 14,888 1,18 1,766,14, Imports (cif) (USD mn) 6,398 71,67 84,18,7,3,49 7,146 6, Trade Balance (USD mn) -3,96-1,4-6,7-7,18-6,3-6,48-1,99-1,617 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 1,76 7, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 7,7 73,964 73,433 73,433 73,6 73,486 73,486 73,6 73,94 TB Rate Exchange Rate (PHP/USD)* Stock Index 7,3.6 6,9.1 6,84.6 6,84.6 7, ,843. 8, ,843. 8,18.1 7,98.6 8,171.4 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales: Quarterly/Monthly sales are based on data by Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) /only Calender Year sales include data by Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors (AVID) (some are duplicated). Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas(BSP), IMF, CEIC etc, 6 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17

7 Singapore Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q4 17Q1 Q Q3 JUN-17 JUL AUG SEP GDP Per Capita (USD) 6,38 3,638,984 Real GDP Growth Rate ( 3.6) ( 1.9) (.) (.9) (.) (.9) Industrial Production Index (IPI) Real Retail Sales Index (RSI) (.3) ( 4.6) ( 1.4) (.4) ( 1.) ( 1.9) (.) ( 1.) Consumer Price Index Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 6,67 491, ,91 1,86 1,88 16,7 4,39 4,631 44, Imports (cif) (SGD mn) 478,83 43,43 43,3 11,886 19,74 11,81 36,47 36,99 38, Trade Balance (SGD mn) 47,48 68,414 63,67 14,97 16,63 16,64,91,7,636 Current Account Balance (SGD mn) 77,61 73,96 78,9 18,13,93 1, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 6,643 47,34 46,36 46,36 9,46 66,93 66,93 69,1 Three-month SIBOR (SGD,%) Exchange Rate (SGD/USD)* Stock Index 3,36.,88.7,88.8,88.8 3,17.1 3,6. 3,19.9 3,6. 3,39. 3,77.3 3,19.9 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Singapore Department of Statistics, CEIC etc, Thailand Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 6,44 6,7 6, Q4 17Q1 Q Q3 JUN-17 JUL AUG SEP Real GDP Growth Rate (.9) (.9) ( 3.) ( 3.) ( 3.3) ( 3.7) Industrial Production Index Private Consumption Indicator ( 1.1) ( 1.3) ( 3.7) ( 3.) (.9) ( 1.9) (.9) ( 1.1) (.) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 881,83 799,63 768,788 1,63 1,49 199,49 69,798 6,178 67, Consumer Price Index Unemployment Rate (%)* Exports (fob) (USD mn) 6,64 14,46 14,1 4,79 6, 6,88 19,811 18,743 1, Imports (cif) (USD mn) 9,4 187,48 177,711 47,69 47,46 49,68 16,87 17,4 17, Trade Balance (USD mn) 17,1 6,798 36,39 7,9 8,814 6,4,941 1,344 3,399 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 1,4 3,113 48,37 1,761 1,7 7,413 4,8,764 4,67 Capital and Financial Account (USD mn) -1,9-16,799-1,3-1,9-7,1-4,7-1, ,8 External Debt (USD mn) 141,71 131,78 13,194 13, ,1 14,1 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 11,3 11,66 166,17 166,17 174,69 179, , ,13 19,376 One-day Repo Rate (%) Exchange Rate (THB/USD)* Stock Index 1, ,88. 1,4.9 1,4.9 1,7.1 1,74.7 1, Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), NESDB, CEIC etc, Vietnam Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q4 17Q1 Q Q3 JUN-17 JUL AUG SEP GDP Per Capita (USD),,19,1 Real GDP Growth Rate (6.) (6.7) (6.) (6.7) (.) (6.3) (7.) Industrial Production Index (7.6) (9.8) (7.) (8.) (3.9) (8.1) (9.7) (8.9) (8.1) (8.4) (13.) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 13,774 8,48 71,8 78,898 9,61 6,9 9,348,7 19,34,746 19, Consumer Price Index (4.1) (.6) (.7) (1.3) (.) (.8) (4.4) (.) (.) (3.4) (3.4) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 1,17 16,17 176,81 48,4 44,14 3,9 6,781 17,7 17,67 19,767 19,34 (13.8) (7.9) (9.) (14.7) (14.8) (.) (.6) (.6) (19.) (.8) (.9) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 147,849 16, ,84 49,76 46,61 3,647 3,88 18,13 17,46 18,181 18,41 (1.) (1.1) (.4) (17.9) (4.) (3.3) (.8) (1.7) (.8) (16.9) (4.8) Trade Balance (USD mn),368-3,79 1,777-1, -,137 -, ,86 1,11 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 9, ,3 1-1,169 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 34,189 8, 36,7 36,7 37,89 39,19 39,19 Refinancing Rate Exchange Rate (VND/USD)* 1,199 1,93,36,3,71,71,73,714,733,73,77 Stock Index Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), IMF, CEIC etc, 7 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17

8 India Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn),3,9,6 Population (person mn) 1,67 1,83 1,99 FY14 FY1 FY16 FY16Q3 FY16Q4 FY17Q1 FY17Q JUN-17 JUL AUG SEP GDP Per Capita (USD) 1,66 1,69 1,744 Real GDP Growth Rate (7.) (8.) (7.1) ( 7.) ( 6.1) (.7) Industrial Production Index (IPI) Motor Vehicle Sales: Passenger Vehicle (PV),6,7,789,8 3,46, ,48 83,198 77, ,399 98,997 94, Wholesale Price Index Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 31,3 6,9 74,67 67,446 76,974 7,197 3,486 19,989 3, Imports (cif) (USD mn) 448,33 381,7 38,9 1,46 14,8 11,14 36,144 34,7 3, Trade Balance (USD mn) -137, ,717-18,33-3,14-7,81-39,97-1,68-14,86-11,644 Current Account Balance (USD mn) -6,731 -,88-1,9-7,964-3,433-14,34 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 33,8 341,189 3,94 341,14 3,94 366, , ,1 Repo Rate(%) Exchange Rate (INR/USD)* Stock Index 7,97,34 9,61 6,66 9,61 3,9 31,84 3,9 3,1 31,73 31,84 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, and Real GDP Grow th Rate are at 11-1 market price base. Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Central Statistics Office, CEIC etc, 8 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17

9 Cambodia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,4 1,131 1,1 1,313 Real GDP Growth Rate (6.) (7.1) (7.3) (7.6) (7.1) (6.9) (7.) Consumer Price Index ( 4.) (.) (.9) (.9) ( 3.9) ( 1.) ( 4.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) ,11-1,983-1,64-1,67-1,67 Trade Balance (USD mn) -1,8 -,14 -,6-3,19-3,6-3,467-3,41 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 3, 3,4 4,67 4,16,66 6,883 8,393 External Debt (USD mn) 3,68 4,7 6,83 7,13 7,916 9,319 NA Exchange Rate (KHR/USD)* 4,18 4,9 4,33 4,7 4,38 4,68 4,9 Myanmar Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 988 1,186 1,17 1,8 1,7 1,19 1, Real GDP Growth Rate 9.6 (.6) ( 7.3) ( 8.4) ( 8.) ( 7.) (.9) Consumer Price Index ( 7.7) (.) ( 1.) ( 8.9) (.) ( 9.) ( 6.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) 1,963-1,633-1,8-6 -1,887 -,3-1,818 Trade Balance (USD mn), ,6-4,11 -,441 -,17 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),717 7,4 6,964 8,4,1 3,86 NA External Debt (USD mn) 8,17 8,19 7,84 7,1 6,31 6,41 NA Exchange Rate (MMK/USD)* ,16.6 1,34.87 Bangladesh Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,14 1,4 1,373 Real GDP Growth Rate.6 (6.) (6.) (6.) (6.1) (6.6) (7.1) Consumer Price Index (7.3) (1.9) (8.7) (6.8) (7.3) (6.4) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) 3,74-1, ,388 1,49 3,49 4,38 Trade Balance (USD mn) -7,48-1,64-11,711-11,1-1,814-9,97-9,46 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 1,64 8,1 1,31 17,64 1,78 7,3 31,776 External Debt (USD mn) 6,881 7,77 8,9 33,997 3,66 38,64 NA Exchange Rate (BDT/USD)* Pakistan Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 1,6 1,19 1,188 1,19 1,34 1,393 1,4 Real GDP Growth Rate (1.6) (.7) (3.) (4.4) (4.7) (4.7) (.) Consumer Price Index (1.1) (13.7) (11.) (7.4) (8.6) (4.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -3, ,68 -,496-3,13 -,79-3,394 Trade Balance (USD mn) -14,98-1,1 -,16-19,418 -,14-1,868-3,8 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 14,346 14,8 1,4,16 11,87 17,83 19,6 External Debt (USD mn) 64,3 6, 6,144 6,7 6,6 6,48 NA Exchange Rate (PKR/USD)* Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Trade balance is BOP base. Myanmar's Nominal GDP, Real GDP Growth Rate, GDP Per Capita and External Debt are FY (Apr-Mar) base. Myanmar's exchange rate system was transformed from fixed exchange rate system to managed float regime in April 1. Bangladesh and Pakistan's Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, Real GDP Grow th Rate, Current Account Balance and Trade Balance are FY (Jul-Jun) base. Source: ADB, IMF, 9 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17

10 Appendix: Comparison of economic indicators in major Asian economies 1. Nominal GDP (USD bn) ,83 7, , ,88 8, , ,87 9, , ,3 1, , ,9 1, , ,6 11, ,41. Population (person mn) ,. 1, ,3. 1, ,1. 1, ,67. 1, ,83. 1, ,99. 1, GDP Per Capita (USD) 11 3,69 1,,364 3,168,791 1,43 1,494,619 34,9,968 4,99 1 3,741 1,6,91 4,43 6,174 1,7 1,48 6,36 36,63 1,314 4, ,679 1,7,768 6,9 6,496 1,98 1,484 7,11 38,3 1,97,9 14 3,3 11,16,849 6,38 6,44, 1,66 7,64 4,183,687 7,87 1 3,371 9,34,883 3,638 6,7,19 1,69 7,978 4,3,469 7, ,6 9,39,93,984 6,177,1 1,744 8,13 43,3,8 7,47 4. Real GDP Growth Rate Q Q Q Q Consumer Price Index Note: India's figures are FY (Apr-Mar) base. India's Real GDP Growth Rate after FY 1 are 11/1 and market price base. Figures before FY11 are 4- and factor cost base. Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, CEIC, 1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17

11 6. Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD bn) , , , , , , Oct , Nov , Dec , Jan , Feb , Mar , Apr , May , Jun , Jul , Aug , Sep External Debt (USD bn)(end-of-period value) , , ,78 1, ,383 1, ,41 1, Exchange Rate to USD (Average value during the period) 11 8, , ,18 1 9, , , , , , , , ,3 1 13, , , , , ,161 Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, World Bank, Bloomberg, For further details, please contact the Economic Research Office, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Chief Manager, Yasuhiro Ishimaru Tel: +81-() Written by Aki Fukuchi <aki_fukuchi@mufg.jp> Yuma Tsuchiya<yuma_tsuchiya@sg.mufg.jp> This report is intended for information purposes only and shall not be construed as solicitation to take any action such as purchasing/selling/investing financial market products. In taking any action, each reader is requested to act on the basis of his or her own judgment. This report is based on information believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. The contents of the report may be revised without advance notice. Also, this report is a literary work protected by the copyright act. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without express statement of its source. This report is also available for viewing online. 11 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 13 November 17