Sri Lanka: Recent Economic Trends. January 2018

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1 Sri Lanka: Recent Economic Trends January

2 Agenda Summary Economic Growth Inflation and Monetary Policy External Account Fiscal Scenario of Government of Sri Lanka ICRA Lanka Limited 2 2

3 Agenda Summary Economic Growth Inflation and Monetary Policy External Account Fiscal Scenario of Government of Sri Lanka ICRA Lanka Limited 3 3

4 Summary The impact of weather-related disruption has been visible across recent readings of various macroeconomic indicators such as growth, inflation, merchandise trade etc. Economic growth remained subdued and weakened on a sequential basis in Q3 CY2017 Capacity addition underway in some real estate and construction sub-segments may exceed absorption demand in the immediate term While private investment remains weak, pickup in government infrastructure spending is likely to support sectors such as transportation and construction materials Headline National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) inflation nearly doubled in CY2017 relative to CY2016, led by a sharp spike in food inflation, whereas the uptick in non food inflation was mild The current account deficit widened sharply in 9M CY2017 relative to 9M CY2016, although foreign exchange reserves have risen in the recent months and the near term vulnerability associated with external debt has eased Lower-than-anticipated growth in revenues widened the budget deficit in Jan-Oct 2017, relative to the year-ago levels After milder-than-anticipated fiscal consolidation in CY2017, the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) expects its budget deficit to ease appreciably to 4.8% of GDP in CY2018 The Inland Revenue Act, which would take effect from April 1, 2018, entails an overhaul of the taxation system for individuals and companies, and is expected to boost the GoSL s revenues from CY2018 onward, by broadening the tax base and encouraging compliance ICRA Lanka Limited 4 4

5 Agenda Summary Economic Growth Inflation and Monetary Policy External Account Fiscal Scenario of Government of Sri Lanka ICRA Lanka Limited 5 5

6 GDP growth has remained at sub-5% since CY % Growth of GDP and GVA at basic prices eased to 3.7%, each in 9M CY % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 9M CY2017 GDP GVA GDP growth moderated to 3.7% in 9M CY2017 from 4.4% in CY2016 GVA growth also declined to 3.7% in 9M CY2017 from 4.2% in CY2016, led by the deterioration in the industrial expansion to 4.5% from 6.7%, respectively, even as services growth remained unchanged at 4.2% in both time periods The performance of agriculture remained unfavourable, although the de-growth in this sector narrowed to 3.2% in 9M CY2017 from 4.2% in CY2016 Source: Department of Census and Statistics, GoSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 6 6

7 GDP and GVA growth eased sequentially in Q3 CY % 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% YoY Growth of GDP and GVA at basic prices moderated to 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, in Q3 CY2017 GVA at basic prices GDP The year-on-year (YoY) growth of GDP and GVA fell to a five-quarter low in Q3 CY2017, dampened by sluggish industrial growth GDP growth (YoY) fell to 3.3% in Q3 CY2017 from 4.0% in Q2 CY2017, led by the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and continued contraction in government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) The sequential downturn in YoY GVA growth to 3.1% in Q3 CY2017 from 4.1% in Q2 CY2017, was led by lower growth in industries and services, even as the contraction in agriculture eased marginally Source: Department of Census and Statistics, GoSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 7 7

8 GDP growth dipped to 3.3% in Q3 CY2017 from 4.0% in Q2 CY % 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Slowdown in all major expenditure heads, barring HFCE in Q2 CY2017 Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) Exports The pace of growth of GFCF posted a sharp slowdown to 3.9% in Q3 CY2017 from the healthy 8.1% in Q2 CY2017, dragging down the GDP expansion for that quarter While growth of exports improved to 8.2% in Q3 CY2017 from 6.6% in Q2 CY2017, it was outpaced by the YoY growth of imports (to 9.9% from 1.9%), increasing the drag exerted by net imports Moreover, GFCE contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q3 CY2017 (by 13.7%), which may reflect the GoSL s continued focus on fiscal consolidation However, HFCE growth rose to 3.6% in Q3 CY2017 from 2.6% in Q2 CY2017 Source: Department of Census and Statistics, GoSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 8 8

9 GVA growth moderated to 3.1% in Q3 CY2017 from 4.1% in Q2 CY % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Sequential deterioration in performance of industries and services in Q3 CY2017, even as contraction in agriculture remained similar Source: Department of Census and Statistics, GoSL; ICRA research Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Industry Services Industrial growth fell sharply to 1.9% in Q3 CY2017 from 5.2% in Q2 CY2017; mining & quarrying contracted by 4.5% in Q3 CY2017, in contrast to the high 18.4% growth in Q2 CY2017, while the YoY growth in construction declined substantially to 2.6% from 9.3%, respectively, even as manufacturing growth improved somewhat to 2.4% from 0.9%, respectively The YoY growth of the services sector eased to 4.3% in Q3 CY2017 from 4.5% in Q2 CY2017, led by sectors such as real estate activities, education, wholesale and retail trade Agricultural output contracted for the sixth consecutive quarter reflecting the weather-related disruptions; the pace of the same eased mildly to 3.3% in Q3 CY2017 from 3.4% in Q2 CY2017 ICRA Lanka Limited 9 9

10 Agenda Summary Economic Growth Inflation and Monetary Policy External Account Fiscal Scenario of Government of Sri Lanka ICRA Lanka Limited 10

11 After remaining moderate in CY2014-CY2016, National Consumer Price Index inflation surged in CY % Annual headline inflation remained volatile, as per the new series of NCPI 11.3% 10% 8% 7.7% 6% 4% 5.5% 5.7% 5.2% 5.2% 3.8% 4.0% 2.6% 3.1% 4.6% 4.9% 2% 0% CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017 NCPI Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages NCPI Non Food NCPI Headline National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) inflation nearly doubled to 7.7% in CY2017 from the modest 4.0% in CY2016 This was led by a sharp spike in food inflation reflecting the impact of successive floods and drought on food prices At the same time, the uptick in non food inflation in CY2017 was mild, suggesting that higher food prices did not create generalized price pressures in the economy Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL); ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 11

12 NCPI inflation charted a volatile trend in 2017, led by food items 22% NCPI inflation eased to 7.3% in Dec 2017 from a peak of 8.8% in October % 14% 10% 6% 2% -2% -6% CPI Non-Food Inflation Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages NCPI inflation was volatile in 2017, rising from 6.3% in July 2017 to a peak of 8.8% in Oct 2017, before moderating to 7.3% in Dec 2017 Food inflation remained elevated for most of 2017 reflecting the impact of various natural calamities; food inflation spiked to a 34-month high 15.7% in Nov 2017 before easing to 12.8% in December 2017 Non food CPI inflation largely tracked a declining trend in 2017, declining to a modest 2.9% in Dec 2017 from 6.8% in Feb 2017 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL); ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 12

13 Non-food NCPI inflation moderated in CY % 32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% Non-food inflation stood at a modest 2.9% in Dec 2017 Healthcare Miscellaneous Good and Services Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Clothing & Footwear Healthcare inflation recorded a substantial correction from May 2017 onward, falling sharply from ~21% in Jan-Apr 2017 to 3.4% each in Nov-Dec 2017, benefitting from a favourable base effect Alcoholic beverages and tobacco also charted a downward trajectory, recording a disinflation of 4.0% on Nov 2017; disinflation of this sub-index narrowed to 0.9% in Dec 2017, resulting in a mild sequential uptick in the non food inflation to 2.9% in Dec 2017 from 2.7% in Nov 2017 In contrast, clothing inflation remained stable at a modest % in Jun-Dec 2017 Inflation for miscellaneous goods remained elevated, printing in a range of % in CY2017 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL); ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 13

14 Pace of depreciation of LKR relative to US$ eased in CY LKR depreciated by 2.5% relative to the US$ in CY2017 The LKR has recorded sustained depreciation relative to the US$ since late 2015, which adds to the imported inflation After recording a considerable 7.4% depreciation in CY2016, the LKR weakened by a moderate 2.5% relative to the US$ in CY2017 Moreover, the LKR has weakened by 0.3% against the US$, so far in CY2018 Source: Bloomberg; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 14

15 Benchmark rates kept unchanged in Dec 2017 Monetary Policy Review Central Bank of Sri Lanka tightened benchmark rates by 125 bps since Jan 2016, given the rising inflation 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% SDF Rate SLF Rate SRR Bank Rate - RHS After having tightened benchmark rates by 125 bps between January 2016 and March 2017, the Monetary Board kept the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) unchanged at three-year highs of 7.25% and 8.75%, respectively, in its policy meeting on Dec 27, 2017 Rates were kept unchanged in the policy review despite the elevated level of inflation in October- November 2017; the central bank had forecast NCPI inflation to ease to mid-single digits by end Source: CBSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 15

16 Agenda Summary Economic Growth Inflation and Monetary Policy External Account Fiscal Scenario of Government of Sri Lanka ICRA Lanka Limited 16

17 Merchandise exports are concentrated in sectors like textiles and tea; imports more diverse Textiles, tea and rubber account for almost half of merchandise exports; imports remain relatively diversified Textiles and garments Tea Rubber products Spices Fuel Machinery and equipment Textile and textile articles Building materials Food, beverages & tobacco Petroleum products Others Transport equipments Chemical products Others Textiles and garments, tea and rubber products together accounted for ~50% of merchandise exports in 10M CY2017; concentration on limited sectors requiring agricultural inputs raises vulnerability to weather-related disruptions Nevertheless, the share of textile and garments in total exports has declined from ~44% during CY to ~29% in 10M CY2017 Merchandise imports are led by fuel, machinery & equipment, textile and textile articles, and building materials, which accounted for half of total imports in 10M CY2017 Share of crude oil, refined petroleum and coal in merchandise imports declined from ~24% in CY2014 to 14% in 10M CY2017, led by the decline in fuel prices, which has subsequently reversed Source: CBSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 17

18 Current account deficit widened considerably in 9M CY2017 relative to 9M CY2016 US$ Billion Current account deficit stood at US$1.88 billion during 9M CY2017 % of GDP 14% 10.4% 10.4% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 11.2% 10.8% Source: CBSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 18 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% -1% 3.0% CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 9M CY2017 Merchandise Trade Deficit Current Account Deficit On a balance of payments (BoP) basis, merchandise exports expanded by 8.2%, while merchandise imports expanded by a higher 9.5% in 9M CY2017 As a result, the merchandise trade deficit widened to US$6.4 billion in 9M CY2017 from US$5.9 billion in 9M CY2016 Reflecting this, as well as the higher outflow of primary income and lower secondary income, the current account deficit worsened to US$1.9 billion in 9M CY2017 from US$0.8 billion in 9M CY2016, and was at par with the full year levels seen in CY2015 and CY2016 On the financial account, net inflows of FDI, portfolio investments, and other investments increased in 9M CY2017 relative to 9M CY2016 As a result, Sri Lanka s foreign exchange reserves increased by US$1.9 billion during 9M CY2017, in contrast to the fall of US$0.5 billion in 9M CY CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 9M CY2017 Merchandise Trade Deficit Current Account Deficit

19 Current account deficit narrowed sequentially in Q3 CY2017 in line with seasonal trend Current account deficit narrowed in absolute terms, and as a percentage of GDP in Q3 CY2017 from Q2 CY2017 US$ Billion % of GDP 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Merchandise Trade Deficit Current Account Deficit Merchandise Trade Deficit Current Account Deficit In sequential quarters, a higher pick-up in YoY growth of merchandise exports relative to merchandise imports, narrowed the merchandise trade deficit to US$2.1 billion in Q3 CY2017 from US$2.2 billion in Q2 CY2017 Moreover, the current account deficit narrowed to US$0.4 billion in Q3 CY2017 from US$0.7 billion in Q2 CY2017, led by the aforementioned easing in merchandise trade deficit, as well as larger services surplus, while exceeding the level of US$0.1 billion in Q3 CY2017 In contrast, net inflows of FDI, portfolio investments and other investment eased in Q3 CY2017 relative to Q2 CY2017 The addition to Sri Lanka s foreign exchange reserves eased to US$0.6 billion during Q3 CY2017 from US$2.0 billion during Q2 CY2017 Source: CBSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 19

20 Growth of exports improved in Oct 2017, while imports contracted Growth of merchandise imports and exports remained volatile in CY % 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Merchandise exports growth improved to a healthy 14.1% in Oct 2017 from 12.6% in Sep 2017, partly led by a favourable base effect Moreover, merchandise imports contracted by 9.4% in Oct 2017, in contrast to the 8.0% expansion in Sep 2017, led by fuel (to -6.6% from +69.3%) Despite the healthy growth of exports and contraction in imports, the merchandise trade deficit worsened to US$751.7 million in Oct 2017 from US$655.6 million in Sep 2016 Total exports and imports have risen by 8.8% and 7.2%, respectively, in Jan-Oct 2017 in YoY terms Overall, the merchandise trade deficit has increased to US$7.6 billion in January-Oct 2017 from US$7.2 billion in January-Oct 2016 Exports Imports Source: CBSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 20

21 Sri Lanka s external debt, and the coverage provided by forex reserves, rose at end-sep 2017 US$ Billion Nevertheless, the coverage provided by foreign exchange reserves remains low 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% External Debt Foreign Exchange Reserves to Total debt (%, RHS) External debt rose to US$50.2 billion at end-sep 2017 (59.9% of GDP) from US$49.2 billion (60.2% of GDP) at end-june 2017 This was driven by the rise in the stock of debt securities, like tong-term treasury bonds (to US$1.5 billion from US$1.1 billion) and International Sovereign Bonds (ISB; to US$10.2 billion from US$8.6 billion); however, these also boosted foreign exchange reserves As a result, the coverage provided by foreign exchange reserves relative to external debt increased to 14.5% at end-sep 2017 from 14.1% at end-june 2017, while still remaining modest P: Provisional Source: CBSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 21

22 General Government debt dominates the external debt of Sri Lanka US$ Billion General Government borrowings account for over half of external debt General Government Central Bank Deposit-Taking Corp Other Sectors Direct Investment: Intercompany Lending General Government debt retained the highest share in external debt at end-sep 2017 (~62%), followed by other deposit-taking corporations, except the Central Bank (~17%) Rise in general Government debt to US$31.3 billion at end-sep 2017 from US$29.8 billion at end- June 2017, was led by the fresh loan inflows, as well as, issuance of ISBs and treasury bonds P: Provisional Source: CBSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 22

23 Share of short-term debt in total external debt eased following issuance of treasury bonds, ISBs Moreover, short-term debt was lower than forex reserves 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% Percentage of Short Term Debt (LHS) Short-term Debt as a Percentage of Official Reserves (RHS) Vulnerability related to short-term debt eased at end-sep 2017 from end-june 2017, both in terms of percentage of total external debt (to 13.4% from 15.8%) and percentage of foreign exchange reserves (to 92.2% from 111.6%), benefitting from the issuance of the long tenor securities Moreover, short-term debt eased below the total foreign exchange reserves after six quarters Nevertheless, short-term debt as a proportion of foreign reserves remained significant at 92.2%, indicating continued vulnerability on this front Planned divestment and inflows from asset leases are expected to boost foreign reserves, which would help buffer against upcoming repayments of foreign currency-denominated external debt P: Provisional Source: CBSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 23

24 ISBs add to stock of reserves, but market conditions at the time of their refinancing may pose a risk US$ Billion ISB issuances, aggregating to US$10.2 billion have been held since 2007; of this amount, US$5.2 billion has been raised since 2015 at relatively high yields The current stock of ISBs outstanding exceeds the size of the CBSL s foreign exchange reserves Moreover, GoSL s external debt repayments amount to US$13.8 billion during CY , which may pose concerns at the time of the maturity unless foreign exchange reserves rise appreciably The GoSL aims to pass a liability management act in the current year, to extend the ceiling on borrowing limits and help raise funds for debt repayments due from CY2018 onwards In addition, the GoSL plans to utilize proceeds from divestment of public assets to repay its debt Nevertheless, the prevailing trend of rising global interest rates may pose some concern; if debt is refinanced at higher interest rates, it would add to the GoSL s interest payments, worsening its fiscal balances Source: CBSL; Ministry of Census & Statistics; ICRA research Steady issuance of ISBs in recent years CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017. ICRA Lanka Limited 24 24

25 Foreign exchange reserves rose to US$8.0 billion in Dec 2017 from US$7.3 billion in Nov 2017 US$ Billion Forex reserves are equivalent to around five months of imports Foreign exchange reserves have been boosted in recent months on account of the recent US$1.5 billion ISB issuance, receipt of syndicated loan, sustained dollar purchases by CBSL, receipts from the Hambantota port lease, and IMF s Extended Fund Facility Reserves at end-dec 2017 exceeded target of US$7.2 billion for end-cy2017 set by IMF; coverage provided by foreign exchange reserves has risen to five months of average CY2016 imports CBSL plans to buildup reserves to US$10 billion by end 2018 Monetary tightening and balance sheet shrinkage by Central banks of various advanced economies may harden global bond yields, which could result in portfolio outflows from Sri Lanka, weakening the LKR and weighing upon the foreign exchange reserves Source: CBSL; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 25

26 Agenda Summary Economic Growth Inflation and Monetary Policy External Account Fiscal Scenario of Government of Sri Lanka ICRA Lanka Limited 26

27 Fiscal balances of GoSL are set to improve mildly in revised estimates of CY2017 % of GDP 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Annual Estimates (AE) for CY2018 target a budget deficit of 4.8% of GDP, and a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017 Current Account Balance Budget Deficit Revised CY2018 Budget The GoSL has revised its budget deficit for CY2017 to 5.2% of GDP, significantly higher than the initial target of 4.6% of GDP, while mildly lower than the CY2016 level of 5.4% of GDP The easing in the budget deficit to 5.2% of GDP in CY2017, benefitted from revenue mobilization measures, such as the hike in the VAT rate, as well as, tax administration reforms Budget deficit for CY2018 has been estimated to ease to 4.8% of GDP, despite higher spending on infrastructure, youth welfare, green initiatives, benefitting from a pickup in revenues from revised taxes on motor vehicles, rationalization of exemptions from VAT and NBT, introduction of debt repayment levy etc. *Current Account Balance refers to GoSL s revenues less current expenditure; budget deficit refers to revenues and grants less total expenditure Source: Ministry of Census & Statistics; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 27 27

28 Budget deficit in Jan-Oct 2017 mildly exceeded yearago levels LKR Billion Incremental expenditure exceeded revenue during Jan-Oct Total Revenue and Grants Total Expenditure Budget Deficit Jan-Oct 2016 Jan-Oct 2017 Revenues of the GoSL recorded a growth of 10.4% in Jan-Oct 2017, whereas current expenditure rose by 9.0%, aiding in a YoY improvement in the current account balance Committed expenditure (salaries & wages, pensions, and interest payments) accounted for a substantial ~80% of current expenditure during Jan-Oct 2017 Capital expenditure and net lending recorded a growth of 11.3% during Jan-Oct 2017, resulting in a YoY rise in the budget deficit Pace of growth of revenue and current expenditure in Jan-Oct 2017, trailed the revised targets for CY2017 (12.6%, 11.7%, respectively), even as the growth in public investment exceeded the same (9.1% vs. 6.6%) Source: Ministry of Census & Statistics; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 28

29 However, current balance improved in Jan-Oct 2017 Despite improvement in current account, budget deficit widened in Jan-Oct 2017, led by higher capital spending LKR billion CY2016 CY2017 Revised CY2016 CY2017 Revised Current Account Balance Full Calendar Year Jan-Oct Budget Deficit The current account deficit narrowed to LRR billion in Jan-Oct 2017 (159.9% of the revised target for CY2017), from LKR billion in Jan-Oct 2016 (154.8% of full year level) However, the budget deficit in Jan-Oct 2017 stood at LKR billion or 86.3% of revised CY2017 target, higher than year-ago levels (LKR billion or 85.5% of CY2016), precipitated by higher capital spending (LKR billion vs. LKR billion) Source: Ministry of Census & Statistics; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 29

30 GoSL remains focused on fiscal consolidation with a budget deficit target of 4.8% for CY2018 LKR Billion Growth % of GDP CY2016 CY2017 Revised CY2018 Budget CY2017 Revised CY2018 Budget CY2016 CY2017 Revised CY2018 Budget Total Revenue and Grants 1,774 1,997 2, % 16.5% 15.0% 15.4% 16.4% Total Revenue 1,766 1,989 2, % 16.4% 14.9% 15.3% 16.3% Tax Revenue 1,464 1,749 2, % 16.3% 12.4% 13.5% 14.3% Non Tax Revenue % 21.1% 1.9% 1.2% 1.3% Grants % 25.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Total Expenditure 2,414 2,677 3, % 12.1% 20.4% 20.6% 21.1% Recurrent 1,838 2,053 2, % 9.6% 15.5% 15.8% 15.8% Public Investment % 20.2% 5.0% 4.9% 5.4% Revenue Surplus (+)/Deficit(-) % -0.5% 0.5% Budget Surplus (+)/Deficit(-) % -5.2% -4.8% With revenue growth expected to outpace expenditure growth in CY2018, the GoSL has targeted tp reduce its budget deficit to 4.8% of GDP Moreover, a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP is being targeted in CY2018 The Inland Revenue Act, which would take effect from April 1, 2018, is expected to boost the GoSL s revenues, by broadening the tax base and encouraging compliance ICRA Lanka Limited 30

31 GoSL s debt outstanding as a percentage of GDP moderated in Q1 CY2017 LKR Billion 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % 71.1% end-december 2010 end-december 2011 GoSL s debt stock rose to LKR 9.7 trillion at end-march % end-december 2012 Outstanding Government Debt (LHS) 70.8% 71.3% end-december 2013 end-december 2014 The GoSL s debt stock rose to LKR 9.7 trillion at end-march 2017 from LKR 9.3 trillion at end- December 2016, led by both domestic and foreign debt However, debt as a percentage of GDP eased to 78.4% at end-march 2017 from 79.3% at end- December 2016, while remaining at elevated levels Moreover, the share of foreign debt in total debt eased to 41.9% at end-march 2017 from 43.1% at end-december 2016, signaling some moderation in vulnerability 77.6% end-december % end-december % end-march 2017 Outstanding Government Debt (% of GDP; RHS) % of GDP 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% Source: CBSL; Ministry of Census & Statistics; ICRA research ICRA Lanka Limited 31

32 Thank you 32

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