Economic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015

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1 Economic Outlook 2016 Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015

2 Global outlook Domestic outlook 2

3 In 2016, recovery pace in most regions are expected to pick up except for China Eurozone Japan F 2016F F 2016F The U.S. China Thailand F 2016F F 2016F F 2016F *Graphs show GDP growth projection in %YOY Sources: EIC, IMF, Bloomberg and forecasts of major research houses (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America) 3

4 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Rising concern over China s economic slowdown have significant implications to the global economy Real GDP growth Manufacturing PMI (RHS) Unit: % YOY 2014 growth target= around 7.5% growth target= 7.5% growth target around 7.0% Unit: Index Sources: EIC analysis based on data from CEIC and Bloomberg 4

5 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 There are still several factors pressuring oil prices, pushing prices of other related-commodities downward. Commodity prices Unit: Index (Jun-14 = 100) Rice Rubber Sugar Crude oil 1 Strong USD with a possibility of Fed funds rate hike Strong US Dollar weighs on oil market 2 China s economic slowdown Lower demand for commodities 3 Global oil over-supply Surge of OPEC output Steady Non-OPEC production lower U.S. shale production is offset by Canadian oil sands production 4 Potential increase in Iranian oil exports Sanction likely lifted in early-2016 Potentially additional 1-2 Mn bbl./day of export by mid-2016 Sources: EIC analysis based on data from Bloomberg and Thaioil 5

6 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 In addition, the anticipation of Fed s rate hike will drive capital outflows from Emerging Asia, causing FX depreciation going into 2016 Asian currencies against USD Change in Foreign Currency Reserves from Jan 2015 Unit: Index ( Jan 2015 = 100) depreciating 11 Aug China devalued Yuan 2 Oct Disappointing US economic data Unit: % 1.8% 1.0% 120 Malaysia 115 Indonesia Thailand Philippines -5.7% % Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Sources: EIC analysis based on data from Bloomberg 6

7 Global outlook Domestic outlook 7

8 Downward revision in our forecast stems from unexpectedly, persistently low crude oil prices throughout 2015 Continuous decline in Thai exports -5.3%YOY 10 Months *Slow external demand, low commodity prices coupled w/ Thailand s own structural problems. Lower than expected farm income -15%YOY July - August *Shrinking supply of rice and several agricultural products also contributed to this. Sluggish private investment -50%YOY Crude oil prices *cheaper input prices reduce incentives for firms to invest in efficiency. Sources: EIC Analysis based on data from NESDB and MOC 8

9 The government is rolling out new short- and long-term measures to boost the economy onwards Short-term stimuli Reviving investment Longer-term issues Village funds (60bn) and 7,000 Tambon (36bn) Accelerating small government projects Soft loans to SMEs (100bn through GSB) Housing stimulus (20bn) Supporting rice and rubber farmers (93bn) Public investment: budget (+36%) and borrowing for infrastructure investment (+160%) Shorten PPP process: to accelerate investment New tax incentives: for both BOI approved and others to accelerate private investment CIT cut: permanently to 20%, and cut temporarily to 10% for SMEs with profits over 300k baht a year Promoting E-payments: to improve efficiency, including for tax collection Promoting investment by clusters: potentially more incentive than BOI Encouraging more R&D: to help drive competitiveness and promoting Start-ups Reforming state-owned enterprises: to increase their efficiency Possibility of joining TPP: But current indecision poses uncertainty for investment 9

10 2016 government investment budget jumps 30%, with positive outlook for longer-term public investment; this should raise private sector confidence Public investment budget Unit: Bn Baht Investment in transportation infrastructure Unit: Bn Baht Waterways Air transportation system Intercity and Intraregional roads Railways Public transportation in BKK & vicinity (revised) Sources: EIC analysis based on data from Bank of Thailand, Fiscal Policy Office, Office of Industrial Economics 10

11 Thai economic transition from : a continuation of sub-par growth Key economic factors Export Fails to recover Export concerns will ease Demand from abroad Commodity prices THB/USD currency exchange Household consumption Farmers income Household debt Private investment Public investment Sentiment Capital utilization rate Shrinking Falling Weaker THB helps export Suppressed Falling commodities income amid drought High Fails to pick up Delays in disbursement Deteriorates Remains low Stabilizing Stabilizing Weaker THB helps export No change Low commodities income with potential drought High Expect V-shape recovery Infra megaprojects to start Recovers Rising ** Government s short-term stimulus measures should have limited positive impact on household consumption and private investment Continued strong tourism growth 2015 s GDP forecast: 2.5% 2016 s GDP forecast: 2.5% 11

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