Economic Monthly ASEAN & India

Transcription

1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE 8 FEBRUARY 218 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON 1 FEBRUARY 218) The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. A member of MUFG, a global financial group 1. Indonesia Motor vehicle sales was +1.6% YoY in 217, increasing for second consecutive year Motor vehicle sales stood at 1.8 million (+1.6% YoY) in 217, increasing for second consecutive year. Sales of commercial vehicles including trucks etc. maintained an upward trend throughout the year, reversing its course from a decline in 216, backed by the government s effort to promote the infrastructure investments. Meanwhile, sales of affordable energy saving cars have shown around 3% decline since August 217 due to factors such as more stringent screening of car loan since early 217 in response to relaxation of regulation on down payments. Looking at the latest results, motor vehicle sales in December 217 recorded -2.1% YoY and marked a second consecutive month of decline as sales of affordable energy saving cars slumped by -29.1% though sales of small-sized multi-purpose passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles increased. With regards to motor vehicle sales in 218, there are mixed forecasts as Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO) projects +2.% YoY while a major Japanese automaker forecasts -4 to -% YoY. Trade balance logged a surplus of USD 11.8 billion in 217, staying in the black for third consecutive year Trade balance logged a surplus of USD 11.8 billion in 217, staying in the black for third consecutive year. A deficit in oil balance widened due to an increase in imports while a surplus in non-oil and gas balance widened and boosted the overall surplus. 1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

2 (thousands) Chart 1: Motor Vehicle Sales Motor Vehicle Sales (left axis) YoY(right axis) (Year) Source: Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO), (USD bn) Chart 2: Trade Balance 2 Gas Oil -2 Excludes Oil and Gas Trade Balance (left axis) -3 Exports (right axis) Imports (right axis) (Year) Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Malaysia The central bank raised a key interest rate for the first time in three and a half years Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised the overnight policy rate (OPR) from 3.% to 3.2 % on January 2, its first rate hike in the last three and a half years. BNM said in a statement that, as domestic and global economies remain firmly on a steady growth and inflation rate and financial markets remain stable, it decided a rate hike in order to normalize the degree of monetary accommodation in light of risks that could arise from interest rates being too low for a prolonged period of time. The central bank has said in a statement at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in November 217 that it might review the current degree of monetary accommodation. It had also announced the similar statement at the MPC prior to the rate hike in the past, which has raised the expectations of a rate hike in financial market. Motor vehicle sales was -.6% YoY in 217, declining for second consecutive year Motor vehicle sales recorded 76,669 (-.6% YoY) in 217, declining for second consecutive year (216: -13.% YoY). Looking at the breakdown, passenger vehicles sales maintained almost the same level as previous year while commercial vehicles sales recorded -.4% YoY. Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) forecasts that motor vehicle sales in 218 will turn to +2.3% YoY supported by firm domestic and global economies, an expansion of public work projects and an improvement in business confidence. 2 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

3 6 4 Chart1:Consumer Price and Policy Rate Services (left axis) Fuels (left axis) Goods exc Fuels (left axis) CPI (Overall) (left axis) CPI (Core) (left axis) Policy Rate (right axis) (%) (th) Chart 2: Motor Vehicle Sales Motor Vehicle Sales (left axis) YoY (rights axis) Trend (right axis) (Year) Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Note: Trend indicates three-quarter moving average Source: Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), (Year) Philippines Real GDP growth slowed to +6.6% YoY in Oct-Dec 217 Real GDP growth was +6.6% YoY in Oct-Dec 217, slowing down from the previous quarter (+7.% YoY). Domestic demand remained solid in general as growth of private consumption accelerated on the back of factors such as an increase in the remittance of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs), and government consumption and corporate capital investments also expanded. Meanwhile, a negative contribution by external demand due to an increase in imports weighed on the overall growth. Real GDP growth in full year of 217 stood at +6.7% YoY, managed to achieve the government s target (+6.% to +7.%). Motor vehicle sales was +17.4% YoY in 217, maintaining double-digit increase Motor vehicle sales (total value of statistics compiled by Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI) and Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors (AVID) respectively) recorded 473,943 (+17.4% YoY) in 217, maintaining double-digit increase. Looking at the breakdown, passenger vehicles sales grew at a sluggish pace due to the supply shortage of license plates for registered vehicles (see note) and the fact that the authority ordered to suspend new registration of vehicles for ride-hailing app services in July 217. Meanwhile, commercial vehicles sales maintained double-digit increase supported by the acceleration of infrastructure investments and corporate capital investments. Note: The government suspended the new issuance of license plates in January 216 after the plates supplier failed to pay the required customs duties. The government afterwards introduced new guidelines in February 217 with regards to the temporary license plates which were installed by dealers and owners. The issue has not been settled yet. 3 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

4 Chart1:Real GDP Household Consumption Government Consumption -1 Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Net Exports -12 Statistical Discrepancy Real GDP (Year) Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Chart2: Motor Vehicle Sales Motor Vehicle Sales (Commercial Vehicles) Motor Vehicle Sales (Passenger Vehicles) Motor Vehicle Sales (Total) Source: Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI), (Year) 4. Singapore Property price for private residential was +.8% QoQ in Oct-Dec 217, rising for second consecutive quarter Property price for private residential (PR) was +.8% QoQ in Oct-Dec 217, rising for second consecutive quarter. Looking at the breakdown by categories, prices in both PR landed and PR non-landed rose in all regions. Especially prices in core central region rose +1.6% QoQ, showing relatively higher growth. Property prices of PR had been falling since 213 partially due to the government s policy to curb property speculation, then turned upward in Jul-Sep 217 for the first time in four years. Property price of industrial space continued to fall while the price of office space rose for second consecutive quarter. CPI slowed to +.4% YoY in December 217 Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at +.4% YoY in December 217, decelerating from the previous month. Looking at the breakdown, Food and Communication rose moderately and Health Care (+1.9% YoY) has been showing relatively higher growth while a decline in Housing & Utilities weighed on the overall CPI. Core CPI recorded +1.3% YoY. In full year of 217, the overall CPI was +.6% YoY, turning positive for the first time in three years (core CPI was +1.% YoY, accelerating from +.9% YoY in 216). Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) forecasts that the overall CPI in 218 to be 1% YoY range. 4 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

5 (29 Q1=1) Chart 1: Property Price Industrial Space Private Residential Office Space Shop Space Source: Singapore Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), (Year) Chart 2: Consumer Price CPI: Others CPI: Transport CPI: Housing & Utilities Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI: Core (Year) Source: Singapore Department of Statistics (DOS), Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS),. Thailand Motor vehicle sales was +13.4% YoY in 217, turning positive for the first time in five years Motor vehicle sales stood at 14,32 (+2.1% YoY) in December 217, remaining at high level. It recorded 871,647 (+13.4% YoY) in full year of 217, increasing year-on-year for the first time in five years. As the effect of the government s First-car buyer incentive program (implemented from September 211 till the end of 212 on the condition of resale prohibition for five years) is coming to an end, stable employment and income environment and the new models released by various automakers both boosted the total sales. Number of visitor arrivals was +8.8% YoY in 217, increasing for third consecutive year The number of visitor arrivals (excluding overseas Thai) was 3.4 million (+1.% YoY) in December 217, maintaining double-digit increase. It stood at 3.38 million (+8.8% YoY) in full year of 217, increasing for third consecutive year. Looking at the breakdown by nationality, visitor arrivals from China, which accounts for around 3% of total, turned towards a recovery on the back of an increasing number of flights between China and Thailand after having remained stagnant from the end of 216 until early 217 due to crackdown on the illegal tour companies. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

6 Chart 1: Motor Vehicle Sales (mn) Motor Vehicle Sales (left axis) YoY (right axis) Chart 2: Visitors Arrivals Others Russia Europe NIEs ASEAN China Visitor Arrivals (total) (Year) -1 Source: The Federation of Thai Industries, (Year) Source: Department of Tourism Thailand, 6. Vietnam Motor vehicle sales in 217 fell for the first time in five years Motor vehicle sales stood at 23,963 (-14.9% YoY) in December 217, continuing the slump. It was 2,612 (-7.8% YoY) in full year of 217, falling year-on-year for the first time in five years. Behind this, there were factors such as conservative buying prior to the elimination of tariffs on imported cars from ASEAN region in January 218 as well as the correction from the high level in the previous year. The Vietnamese government has introduced new non-tariff measures such as rigorous inspection procedures towards importers while it abolished 3% import tariff on motor vehicles, and there is a concern that motor vehicle sales will remain weak in the long term. Trade balance in January posted the second straight deficit Exports jumped to +33.1% YoY in January. The main items such as Telephone and Spare Parts and Electronic Products remained strong, and Agricultural and Fishery Products such as Fishery and Coffee also showed higher growth. Meanwhile, imports also accelerated to +47.4% YoY, particularly those of Electronic Products. Trade balance posted a deficit of USD -3 million, the second straight deficit following the previous month, although the deficit was rather modest. 6 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

7 3, (Unit) Chart1:Motor Vehicle Sales 12 Chart 2: Trade Balance (USD bn) 2. 2, , 1, , 4., , -1, Motor Vehicle Sales (left axis) YoY growth rate (right axis) Source: Vietnam Automobile Manufacturer Association (VAMA), -2-4 (Year) -2-3 Trade Balance (right axis) -4 Exports (left axis) Imports (left axis) (Year) Source: General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam, India Motor vehicle sales was +14.3% YoY in December 217, increasing for sixth consecutive month Motor vehicle sales (based on the shipments by manufacturers) recorded +14.3% YoY in December 217, increasing for sixth consecutive month. Looking at the breakdown, passenger vehicles sales stood at +.2% YoY and commercial vehicles sales jumped to +2.6% YoY. In 217, the shipments were held back temporarily on the back of the emission regulation introduced in April and Goods and Services Tax (GST) introduced in July, however motor vehicle sales picked up in the second half of the year and recorded 4.2 million (+9.% YoY) in full year of 217. Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) forecasts that motor vehicle sales in the current fiscal year (from April 217 to March 218) to be +9% YoY. CPI accelerated to +.2% YoY in December 217 Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at +.2% YoY in December 217, accelerating for sixth consecutive month. Looking at the breakdown, Fuel and Light (accounting for 1% of total) was +7.9% YoY, decelerating from +8.2% YoY in the previous month, while Food and Beverages (accounting for % of total) accelerated to +.% YoY (from +4.4% YoY in the previous month) and boosted the overall CPI. 7 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

8 2 2 1 Chart1:Motor Vehicle Sales Motor Vehicle Sales (right axis) YoY (left axis) (th) Chart 2: Consumer Price Policy Rates CPI: Food and Beverages, Tobacco CPI: Miscellaneous CPI: Fuel and Light CPI: Housing CPI: Clothing and Footwear Consumer Price Index (CPI) Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), (Year) Source: Government of India Central Statistics Office (CSO), (Year) 8 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

9 Appendix1: Economic indicators in major Asian economies Indonesia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 3,371 3, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OCT-17 NOV DEC JAN-18 Real GDP Growth Rate (4.9) (.) (.) (.) (.1) Industrial Production Index (4.8) (4.) (4.) (3.9) (.6) (6.8) (.) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 1,13,291 1,62,729 1,79,34 283,76 249,746 27,36 27,722 94,433 96,191 8,98 (-16.1) (4.9) (1.6) (6.2) (-.7) (7.8) (-1.) (2.) (-4.6) (-2.1) Consumer Price Index* (6.4) (3.) (3.8) (3.6) (4.3) (3.8) (3.) (3.6) (3.3) (3.6) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 1,366 14, ,729 4,694 39,281 43,4 4,34 1,242 1,32 14,791 (-14.6) (-3.4) (16.2) (2.7) (7.9) (24.1) (13.2) (19.6) (13.) (6.9) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 142,69 13,63 16,893 36,66 3,74 4,176 44,47 14,241 1,1 1,61 (-19.9) (-4.9) (1.7) (14.6) (4.9) (22.9) (2.2) (23.8) (19.2) (17.8) Trade Balance (USD mn) 7,671 9,33 11,836 4,88 3,76 3, , Current Account Balance (USD mn) -17,19-16,79-2,333-4,834-4,337 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 13, , ,87 118,66 119, ,8 126,87 123,23 122, ,87 BI Rate 7. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate Exchange Rate (IDR/USD)* 13,39 13,36 13,381 13,346 13,39 13,332 13,38 13,29 13,27 13,7 13,379 Stock Index 4,93., ,3.7,68.1,829.7,9.9 6,3.7 6,.8,92.1 6,3.7 6,6.6 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate w as adopted as benchmark on August 19, 216. Source: Bank Indonesia (BI), CEIC, Bloomberg etc, Malaysia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OCT-17 NOV DEC JAN-18 GDP Per Capita (USD) 9,34 9,392 Real GDP Growth Rate (.) ( 4.2) (.6) (.8) ( 6.2) Industrial Production Index ( 4.7) ( 3.8) ( 4.3) ( 4.3) (.9) ( 3.4) (.) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 666,716 8,118 76,669 14,84 143, ,24 1,94 47,41 49,184 4,729 (.) (- 13.) (-.6) (7.3) (-.4) (- 1.1) (- 6.7) (- 1.8) (.2) (- 1.6) Consumer Price Index ( 2.1) ( 2.1) ( 3.8) ( 4.2) ( 3.8) ( 3.6) ( 3.6) ( 3.7) ( 3.4) ( 3.) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 199, ,798,36 2,266 6,136 19,46 2,34 (-14.9) (-4.7) (14.4) (11.) (16.1) (17.1) (19.1) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 176,3 168,3 46,291 46,79 49,882 16,987 17,647 (-1.7) (-4.3) (2.4) (1.2) (13.9) (19.3) (19.9) Trade Balance (USD mn) 23,13 21,24 4,24,7 6,24 2,469 2,387 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 9,69 6,924 1,18 2,226 2,938 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 93,979 93,72 93,879 97,394 99,643 99,93 1,316 Three-month KLIBOR (%) Exchange Rate (MYR/USD)* Stock Index 1,692. 1, , ,74.1 1, ,7.6 1, , , , ,868.6 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), CEIC etc, Philippines Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OCT-17 NOV DEC JAN-18 GDP Per Capita (USD) 2,883 2,93 2,987 Real GDP Growth Rate (6.1) (6.9) (6.7) (6.4) (6.7) (7.) (6.6) Industrial Production Index (2.) (11.7) (12.3) (3.8) (-2.2) (-.8) (-8.1) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 323,21 43, ,943 94,26 12,138 16,7 122,84 36,11 4,799 4,494 (19.6) (24.9) (17.4) (23.) (12.2) (13.6) (2.1) (17.3) (23.8) (33.4) Consumer Price Index (1.4) (1.8) (3.2) (3.2) (3.1) (3.1) (3.3) (3.) (3.3) (3.3) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 8,827 7,46 1,18 1,766 16,49,392 4,963 (-.3) (-2.4) (16.3) (12.7) (8.4) (7.1) (1.6) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 71,67 84,18 22,3 22,249 22,47 8,212 8,744 (8.7) (18.3) (1.1) (.1) (3.9) (13.1) (18.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -12,24-26,72-6,3-6,482-6,87-2,819-3,781 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 7, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 73,964 73,433 73,233 73,6 73,486 72,897 73,233 72,34 72,264 73,233 TB Rate Exchange Rate (PHP/USD)* Stock Index 6,92.1 6,84.6 8,8.4 7, , , ,8.4 8,36.3 8,24. 8,8.4 8,764. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales: Quarterly/Monthly sales are based on data by Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) /only Calender Year sales include data by Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors (AVID) (some are duplicated). Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas(BSP), IMF, CEIC etc, 9 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

10 Singapore Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OCT-17 NOV DEC JAN-18 GDP Per Capita (USD) 3,638 2,984 Real GDP Growth Rate ( 1.9) ( 2.) ( 2.) ( 3.) (.4) ( 3.1) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (-.1) (3.7) ( 1.1) ( 8.) ( 8.4) ( 19.1) ( 4.8) ( 14.) (.6) (- 3.9) Real Retail Sales Index (RSI) ( 4.6) ( 1.4) (.7) ( 1.4) (.9) (- 1.4) (4.3) Consumer Price Index (-.) (-.) (.6) (.6) (.8) (.4) (.) (.4) (.6) (.4) Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 491, ,912 1,1 12,88 126,7 128, ,219 43,74 4,886 44,93 (- 6.) (-.1) (1.3) (16.9) (8.3) (1.1) (6.6) (1.3) (9.) (.6) Imports (cif) (SGD mn) 423,43 43,3 42,12 19,7 11,18 111,31 12,928 39,347 41,477 4,14 (-11.) (-4.7) (12.1) (1.) (11.) (13.4) (9.1) (16.) (1.7) (1.6) Trade Balance (SGD mn) 68,414 63,67 62,899 16,3 16,92 16,963 13,291 4,392 4,49 4,489 Current Account Balance (SGD mn) 73,96 78,9 2,32 19,813 21,689 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 247,34 246,36 29, ,93 27,2 27,8 279,37 Three-month SIBOR (SGD,%) Exchange Rate (SGD/USD)* Stock Index 2, ,88.8 3,42.9 3,17.1 3,226. 3, ,42.9 3, ,433. 3,42.9 3,34. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Singapore Department of Statistics, CEIC etc, Thailand Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 6,18 6, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OCT-17 NOV DEC JAN-18 Real GDP Growth Rate ( 3.) ( 3.3) ( 3.3) ( 3.8) ( 4.3) Industrial Production Index (-.) (1.6) (1.6) (.3) (-.1) (4.1) (2.1) (-.3) (4.1) (2.3) Private Consumption Indicator ( 1.3) ( 3.7) ( 2.1) ( 2.9) ( 1.8) ( 1.8) ( 1.8) (.4) ( 3.) ( 1.) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 799, , ,647 21,49 199,49 21,732 2,93 68,1 78,82 14,32 (-9.3) (-3.9) (13.4) (1.9) (6.6) (12.2) (18.2) (13.1) (2.6) (2.1) Consumer Price Index (-.9) (.2) (.7) (1.3) (.1) (.4) (.9) (.9) (1.) (.8) (.7) Unemployment Rate (%)* Exports (fob) (USD mn) 214,46 214,21 23,16 6,22 6,88 61,633 61,164 2,1 21,23 19,918 (-.6) (.1) (9.7) (6.8) (7.9) (12.) (11.6) (13.4) (12.3) (9.3) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 187, ,711 23,24 47,46 49,682 1,49 4,661 18,386 17,9 18,374 (-1.6) (-.1) (14.4) (1.9) (14.2) (13.) (14.6) (16.6) (11.9) (1.4) Trade Balance (USD mn) 26,798 36,39 31,866 8,814 6,4 1,143 6,3 1,624 3,33 1,44 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 32,111 48,237 49,278 1,27 7,822 13,72 12,677 3,3,28 3,86 Capital and Financial Account (USD mn) -16,799-21,23-19,67-7,1 -, ,6-1,18-1,1-4,23 External Debt (USD mn) 131,78 132, ,12 14, ,338 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 11, ,17 196, , , , , , , ,121 One-day Repo Rate (%) Exchange Rate (THB/USD)* Stock Index 1,288. 1,42.9 1,73.7 1,7.1 1,74.7 1, , Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), NESDB, CEIC etc, Vietnam Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OCT-17 NOV DEC JAN-18 GDP Per Capita (USD) 2,19 2,21 2,38 Real GDP Growth Rate (6.7) (6.2) (6.8) (.2) (6.3) (7.) (7.7) Industrial Production Index (9.8) (7.) (9.4) (4.) (8.2) (9.7) (14.4) (17.) (17.2) (11.2) (2.9) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 28,48 271,82 2,612 9,61 6,922 9,348 6,781 2,16 21,662 23,963 (3.6) (3.3) (-7.8) (.9) (-2.2) (-14.3) (-16.6) (-17.) (-17.6) (-14.9) Consumer Price Index (.6) (2.7) (3.) (.) (3.3) (3.1) (2.7) (3.) (2.6) (2.6) (2.7) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 162,17 176,81 214,323 44,14 3,92 6,781 9,937 2,292 19,99 19,64 19, (7.9) (9.) (21.4) (14.8) (22.2) (22.6) (24.8) (32.) (24.1) (18.7) (33.1) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 16, ,84 211,18 46,61 3,647 3,828 7,393 18,111 19,394 19,888 19,3 (12.1) (.4) (21.) (24.) (23.3) (2.8) (16.) (14.2) (18.2) (17.) (47.4) Trade Balance (USD mn) -3,79 1,777 2,84-2,137-2,93 2,44 2, Current Account Balance (USD mn) 96 8,23-1, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 28,2 36,27 37,829 39,19 Refinancing Rate Exchange Rate (VND/USD)* 21,923 22,36 22,718 22,712 22,712 22,73 22,717 22,722 22,718 22,712 22,74 Stock Index ,11.36 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), IMF, CEIC etc, 1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

11 India Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 2,3 2,9 2,26 Population (person mn) 1,267 1,283 1,299 FY214 FY21 FY216 FY16Q4 FY17Q1 FY17Q2 FY17Q3 OCT-17 NOV DEC JAN-18 GDP Per Capita (USD) 1,66 1,629 1,744 Real GDP Growth Rate (7.) (8.) (7.1) ( 6.1) (.7) ( 6.3) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (4.) (3.3) (4.6) (3.1) (1.9) (3.3) (2.) (8.4) Motor Vehicle Sales: Passenger Vehicle (PV) 2,6,7 2,789,28 3,46,72 83, ,643 93, , ,837 27, ,712 (3.7) (7.3) (9.2) (11.1) (4.4) (13.4) (6.1) (-.3) (14.3) (.2) Wholesale Price Index (1.3) (-3.6) (1.8) (.) (2.3) (2.8) (3.7) (3.7) (3.9) (3.6) (6.) (4.9) (4.) (3.6) (2.2) (3.) (4.6) (3.6) (4.9) (.2) Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 31,32 262,29 276,441 76,974 71,32 74,261 76,21 22,846 26,16 27,69 (-1.3) (-1.) (.4) (18.) (8.) (12.4) (12.7) (-2.2) (3.1) (12.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 448,33 381,7 382,724 14,82 113,31 19,69 119,79 37,476 4,436 41,883 (-.) (-1.) (.) (2.4) (33.7) (2.6) (16.8) (8.6) (2.8) (21.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -137, ,717-16,283-27,81-41,998-34,88-43,774-14,629-14,33-14,81 Current Account Balance (USD mn) -26,731-22,88-1,229-3,433-1,1-7,213 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 323,82 341,189 3,924 3, , , ,3 379,33 382,6 389,3 Repo Rate(%) Exchange Rate (INR/USD)* Stock Index 27,97 2,342 29,621 29,621 3,922 31,284 34,7 33,213 33,149 34,7 3,96 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, and Real GDP Grow th Rate are at market price base. Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Central Statistics Office, CEIC etc, 11 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

12 Cambodia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,4 1,131 1,21 1,313 Real GDP Growth Rate (6.) (7.1) (7.3) (7.6) (7.1) (6.9) (7.) Consumer Price Index ( 4.) (.) ( 2.9) ( 2.9) ( 3.9) ( 1.2) ( 4.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) ,11-1,983-1,64-1,67-1,67 Trade Balance (USD mn) -1,8-2,14-2,6-3,219-3,26-3,467-3,41 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 3,2 3,4 4,267 4,16,626 6,883 8,393 External Debt (USD mn) 3,68 4,227 6,283 7,132 7,916 9,319 NA Exchange Rate (KHR/USD)* 4,18 4,9 4,33 4,27 4,38 4,68 4,9 Myanmar Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 988 1,186 1,172 1,28 1,27 1,192 1,22 Real GDP Growth Rate 9.6 (.6) ( 7.3) ( 8.4) ( 8.) ( 7.) (.9) Consumer Price Index ( 7.7) (.) ( 1.) ( 8.9) (.) ( 9.) ( 6.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) 1,963-1,633-1, ,887-2,23-1,818 Trade Balance (USD mn) 2, ,6-4,11 -,441 -,17 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),717 7,4 6,964 8,4 2,12 3,86 NA External Debt (USD mn) 8,217 8,192 7,84 7,21 6,31 6,41 NA Exchange Rate (MMK/USD)* , , Bangladesh Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,14 1,224 1,373 Real GDP Growth Rate.6 (6.) (6.) (6.) (6.1) (6.6) (7.1) Consumer Price Index (7.3) (1.9) (8.7) (6.8) (7.3) (6.4) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) 3,724-1, ,388 1,49 3,492 4,382 Trade Balance (USD mn) -7,482-12,64-11,711-11,12-1,814-9,972-9,46 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 1,64 8,1 12,31 17,64 21,78 27,23 31,776 External Debt (USD mn) 26,881 27,277 28,9 33,997 3,66 38,64 NA Exchange Rate (BDT/USD)* Pakistan Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 1,6 1,19 1,188 1,19 1,324 1,393 1,422 Real GDP Growth Rate (1.6) (2.7) (3.) (4.4) (4.7) (4.7) (.) Consumer Price Index (1.1) (13.7) (11.) (7.4) (8.6) (4.) (2.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -3, ,68-2,496-3,13-2,79-3,394 Trade Balance (USD mn) -14,98-1,12-2,162-19,418-2,14-21,868-23,8 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 14,346 14,28 1,242,16 11,87 17,83 19,6 External Debt (USD mn) 64,3 6,2 62,144 6,7 62,262 6,482 NA Exchange Rate (PKR/USD)* Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Trade balance is BOP base. Myanmar's Nominal GDP, Real GDP Growth Rate, GDP Per Capita and External Debt are FY (Apr-Mar) base. Myanmar's exchange rate system was transformed from fixed exchange rate system to managed float regime in April 212. Bangladesh and Pakistan's Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, Real GDP Grow th Rate, Current Account Balance and Trade Balance are FY (Jul-Jun) base. Source: ADB, IMF, 12 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

13 Appendix2: Comparison of economic indicators in major Asian economies 1. Nominal GDP (USD bn) ,828 8, , ,87 9, , ,3 1, , ,9 1, , ,26 11, , , Population (person mn) ,23. 1, ,21. 1, ,267. 1, ,283. 1, ,299. 1, , GDP Per Capita (USD) 212 3,794 1,82 2,91,784 6,174 1,7 1,494 6,326 36,623 21,314 24, ,729 1,9 2,768 6,944 6,493 1,98 1,48 7,11 38,232 21,97 2, ,8 11,189 2,849 7,7 6,27 2,2 1,66 7,642 4,183 22,687 27, ,371 9,34 2,883 3,638 6,18 2,19 1,629 7,978 42,32 22,484 27, ,6 9,392 2,93 2,984 6,249 2,21 1,744 8,97 43,3 22,62 27, ,987 2,38 8,87 24, Real GDP Growth Rate Q Q Q Q Consumer Price Index Note: India's figures are FY (Apr-Mar) base. India's Real GDP Growth Rate after FY 212 are 211/12 and market price base. Figures before FY211 are 24- and factor cost base. Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, CEIC, 13 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218

14 6. Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD bn) , , , , , Jan , Feb , Mar , Apr , May , Jun , Jul , Aug , Sep , Oct , Nov , Dec External Debt (USD bn)(end-of-period value) , , ,78 1, ,383 1, ,421 1, Exchange Rate to USD (Average value during the period) 212 9, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,131 Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, World Bank, Bloomberg, For further details, please contact the Economic Research Office, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Chief Manager, Yasuhiro Ishimaru Tel: +81-() Written by Aki Fukuchi <aki_fukuchi@mufg.jp> Yuma Tsuchiya<yuma_tsuchiya@sg.mufg.jp> This report is intended for information purposes only and shall not be construed as solicitation to take any action such as purchasing/selling/investing financial market products. In taking any action, each reader is requested to act on the basis of his or her own judgment. This report is based on information believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. The contents of the report may be revised without advance notice. Also, this report is a literary work protected by the copyright act. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without express statement of its source. This report is also available for viewing online. 14 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 8 February 218