Broad Money and Its Affecting Factors

Transcription

1 Broad Money and Its Affecting Factors wa e Weaker growth of broad money (M2) remained in e. It grew 13.0, lower than 13.4 growth in. The deceleration of M2 growth was dragged by Quasi Money (Time and Saving Deposits in rupiah and foreign currency, and foreign currency Demand Deposit), which grew 13.9, slower than 15.1 in the previous month. Based on affecting factor, M2 growth was influenced by retarded expansion of Central Government financial operation and bank lending growth. Net claims on the Central Government slighter dropped from 25.6 to Meanwhile, banking credit stood at Rp3,863.9 T or grew 10.2, milder compared to 10.3 one month earlier. Interest rates moved mixed. In e, 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month time deposit rates came down to at 7.76%, 8.27%, and 8.73%, from 7.85%, 8.50% and 8.90% in. In contrast, average lending rate slightly up from 12.96% to 12.97% in e. Graph 1. GDP, Money Supply, Deposit and Loan Growth Table 1. Money Supply '15 '15 Broad Money (M2) 4, , Narrow Money (M1) , o/w: Currency Outside Commercial and Rural Banks Quasi Money 3, , Securities Other Than Shares Since January 2012, BPR included BPR Syariah *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of THE COMPONENTS OF MONEY SUPPLY Money Supply (M2) 1 continued to slow down compared to the previous month. Money Supply (M2) as of the end of e was Rp4,359.5 T, or grew 13.0, slower than 13.4 growth posted in the previous month. The slowdown was mainly affected by Quasi Money 2 as the growth of time deposits (both in rupiah and foreign exchange) decelerated. Quasi Money stood at Rp3,306.2 T, or grew 13.9, slower than 15.1 in. However, augmented M1 which grew 9.9, up from 8.2 in, restrained M2 deceleration. Meanwhile, the growth of private deposits 3 in the banking system (DPK) in e was relatively stable at 13.2, the same as. This condition was due to weaker growth in Time Deposits (both in rupiah and foreign currency) amid increasing growth of Savings and Demand 1 Money supply can be defined in terms of the narrow (M1) and broad (M2) aggregates. M1 consists of currency outside banks and demand deposits (in the rupiah currency), while M2 consists of M1, quasi-money and securities issued by the monetary system and held by the domestic private sector with remaining maturities of up to one year 2 Quasi-money consists of private deposits, made up of time deposits and savings deposits (held in rupiahs and foreign currency) plus foreign currency demand deposits 3 Private deposits are deposits of third parties held in commercial banks and rural banks in demand deposits, savings deposits and time deposits in rupiahs and foreign currency. In the statistics for the money supply, private deposits do not include deposits blocked by reason of loss of their monetary function. On the other hand, in analysing their development, private deposits also include blocked deposits and deposits owned by third parties (not including deposits held by the Central Government and non-residents) in rupiahs and foreign currencies at both commercial banks and rural banks (not including bank offices operating outside Indonesian territory) in the form of demand deposits, savings deposits and time deposits. DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 1

2 Table 2. Deposits Deposits Rupiah 3, , Demand Deposit Saving Deposit 1, , Time Deposit 1, , Foreign Currency Demand Deposit Saving Deposit Time Deposit Total 4, , Demand Deposit , Saving Deposit 1, , Time Deposit 2, , Table 3. Factors Influencing the Money Supply % yoy '15 '15 Factors Affecting Broad Money 4, , Net Foreign Assets 1, , Net Domestic Assets 3, , Net Claims on Central Government Claims on Central Government Liabilities to Central Government (2.5) Claims on Other Sector 4, , o/w: Loans 4 3, , Net Other Items Since January 2012, BPR included BPR Syariah *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of Table 4. Loans to the Manufacturing and Trade Sectors Credit % yoy Working Capital Loans 1, , Investment Credit o/w Manufacturing Industry Trade, Hotel, and Restaurant Consumer Loans 1, , Table 5. MSME Loans by Commercial Banks yoy (%) '15 '15 Business Scale Micro Small Medium Type of Loans Working Capital Loans Invesment Loans Total Deposits. Time Deposits position at the end of e stood at Rp1,989.3 T, or grew 17.2% (yoy), lower than 20.9 in. Meanwhile, Demand and Savings deposits were registered at Rp1,001.9 T and Rp1,233.3 T, respectively or grew 17.0 and 4.6, increased from 10.7 and 3.9 in the previous month (Table 2). FACTORS AFFECTING BROAD MONEY The sluggish growth g of M2 was s affected by retarded expansion of Central Government financial operation and bank lending growth. Net claims on the Central Government slighter dropped from 25.6 to Furthermore, the outstanding of bank credit 4 reached Rp3,863.9 T in e, or grew 10.2, slightly down from 10.3 one month earlier (Table 3). The credit slowdown was mainly in Investment Credit, registered at Rp936.6 T in e, or grew 10.1, lower than 11.1 in the previous month. This was on account of slowing growth of credit to the manufacturing sector and trade, hotels and restaurants sector, which grew 14.8 and 13.3 respectively, well below the 15.1% (yoy) and 13.4 in the previous month (Table 4). The sluggish credit growth was also evident in credit to Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) as well as property loans. Loans extended to MSMEs in e stood at Rp710.9 T, or grew 9.2, slower than 9.3 in (Table 5). This slowdown occurred in credit 4 Credit outstanding is limited to loans and does not include equivalent financial instruments, such as debt securities, banker's acceptances and repo claims. Furthermore, credit outstanding does not include lending by overseas offices of commercial banks and loans to the central government and non-residents. DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 2

3 Graph 2. Lending for r the Trade, Hotels and Restaurants Sector, Property and Manufacturing % Table 6. Property Credit Property Loans Housing and Apartment Ownership Credits Construction Credits Real Estate Credits *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of Graph 3. Developments in the BI Rate and Time Deposit and Loan Interest Rates to medium-scale enterprises which grew 8.0% (yoy), below the growth in (8.6). Meanwhile, bank lending to property sectors totaled Rp586.0 T, or grew 14.1, lower than 14.6 in. The eased growth was charted in house and apartment ownership credit, construction credit, and real estate credit, which grew 6.9, 27.9, and 19.3% (yoy) respectively, down from 7.7, 28.7% (yoy), and 19.5 in. Interest rates moved mixed. In e, 1- month, 3-month, and 6-month time deposit rates5 came down to at 7.76%, 8.27%, and 8.73%, from 7.85%, 8.50% and 8.90% in. In contrast, average lending rate slightly up from 12.96% to 12.97% in e (Chart 3). September MONETARY AND FISCAL STATISTICS DIVISION STATISTICS DEPARTMENT 5 The interest rate calculation is based only on interest rates at commercial banks and does not include rural banks. DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 3

4 Appendix 1. Money Supply and Its Affecting Factors Description Jul Aug 2014 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Broad Money (M2) 3,857,962 3,887,407 3,886,520 4,010,147 4,024,489 4,076,670 4,173,327 4,174,826 4,218,123 4,246,361 4,275,711 4,288,369 4,359,546 Narrow Money (M1) 945, , , , , , , , , , , ,915 1,039,680 Currency Outside Commercial and Rural Ban 381, , , , , , , , , , , , ,876 Rupiah Demand Deposits 564, , , , , , , , , , , , ,805 Quasi Money 2,903,415 2,959,732 2,982,674 3,044,842 3,066,421 3,099,350 3,209,475 3,233,881 3,278,945 3,275,499 3,302,204 3,293,147 3,306,223 Time Deposits 1,569,825 1,597,991 1,629,380 1,665,844 1,680,642 1,694,565 1,729,883 1,788,607 1,846,809 1,849,279 1,862,403 1,858,171 1,828,984 Rupiah 1,331,090 1,364,886 1,396,816 1,418,043 1,444,455 1,456,531 1,475,405 1,523,779 1,570,171 1,572,159 1,589,189 1,578,151 1,558,639 Foreign Currency 238, , , , , , , , , , , , ,345 Savings Deposits 1,106,140 1,144,093 1,132,274 1,143,054 1,138,907 1,158,896 1,234,588 1,184,829 1,181,971 1,170,999 1,176,802 1,169,045 1,191,252 Rupiah 1,021,764 1,056,188 1,044,437 1,055,488 1,053,944 1,070,258 1,144,254 1,093,281 1,090,330 1,077,671 1,082,143 1,077,048 1,095,047 Foreign Currency 84,375 87,904 87,838 87,566 84,963 88,639 90,334 91,548 91,640 93,328 94,659 91,997 96,205 Foreign Currency Demand Deposits 227, , , , , , , , , , , , ,986 Securities Other Than Shares 8,829 9,110 8,019 16,136 17,719 21,785 21,630 22,866 11,331 13,282 14,131 14,307 13,643 Factors Affecting Broad Money 3,857,962 3,887,407 3,886,520 4,010,147 4,024,489 4,076,670 4,173,327 4,174,826 4,218,123 4,246,361 4,275,711 4,288,369 4,359,546 Net Foreign Assets 1,072,451 1,051,085 1,063,301 1,114,215 1,096,264 1,102,325 1,105,783 1,194,242 1,207,650 1,189,181 1,160,777 1,189,000 1,190,279 Net Domestic Assets 2,785,511 2,836,323 2,823,219 2,895,931 2,928,225 2,974,345 3,067,544 2,980,584 3,010,473 3,057,180 3,114,934 3,099,370 3,169,267 Net Claims on Central Government 325, , , , , , , , , , , , ,201 Claims on Central Government 601, , , , , , , , , , , , ,513 Liabilities to Central Government 276, , , , , , , , , , , , ,312 Claims on Other Sector 3,717,744 3,747,911 3,757,074 3,823,505 3,844,952 3,913,512 3,961,583 3,936,152 3,958,638 3,981,351 4,026,379 4,079,709 4,155,950 Claims on Other Financial Institutions: 236, , , , , , , , , , , , ,999 Loans 181, , , , , , , , , , , , ,692 Other Claims 54,737 57,957 57,934 56,648 59,518 64,773 63,732 64,504 69,594 73,744 77,311 75,767 74,307 Claims on State and Local Government: 5,730 5,849 5,838 6,042 6,212 6,369 6,635 6,623 6,456 6,271 5,742 5,837 5,890 Loans 5,709 5,828 5,817 6,021 6,191 6,348 6,614 6,602 6,435 6,250 5,721 5,816 5,869 Other Claims Claims on Public NonFinancial Corporations: 215, , , , , , , , , , , , ,222 Loans 196, , , , , , , , , , , , ,765 Other Claims 19,233 18,661 18,305 21,770 20,248 19,800 19,148 20,835 25,804 28,198 28,787 27,996 28,457 Claims on Private Sectors 3,259,657 3,274,542 3,292,743 3,349,667 3,387,545 3,442,846 3,488,677 3,454,695 3,471,938 3,509,105 3,540,632 3,585,030 3,649,839 Loans 3,122,039 3,133,368 3,144,572 3,200,665 3,215,930 3,246,041 3,318,866 3,272,602 3,309,119 3,345,375 3,368,584 3,404,079 3,461,551 Other Claims 137, , , , , , , , , , , , ,289 Shares and Other Equity (967,243) (944,312) (959,649) (988,486) (991,549) (1,006,376) (1,027,315) (1,060,135) (1,074,954) (1,076,710) (1,058,064) (1,071,827) (1,082,650) Net Other Items 23,921 45,636 35,632 42,576 26,032 9,999 49,733 43,774 44,390 32,309 39,581 47,107 27,759 Since January 2012 BPR included BPR Syariah In Money Supply Statistics (Appendix 1), credit extended includes Loans, Banker s Acceptances, and Repo claim. *Data of BPR and BPRS are as of Appendix 2. Private Deposits in the Banking System Deposits Jul Aug 2014 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Rupiah 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,493.5 Demand Deposit Saving Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,131.3 Time Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,691.5 Foreign Currency Demand Deposit Saving Deposit Time Deposit Total 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,224.5 Demand Deposit ,001.9 Saving Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,233.3 Time Deposit 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,989.3 DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 4

5 Appendix 3. Bank Lending to the Domestic Private Sector 2014 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Currency of Denomination Rupiah 2, , , , , , , , , , , , ,257.8 Foreign Currency Type of Loans Investment Loans Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishery Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Industry Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel, and Restaurant Transport and Communication Financial, Ownership & Business Services Services Working Capital Loans 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,835.8 Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishery Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Industry Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel, and Restaurant Transport and Communication Financial, Ownership & Business Services Services Consumer Loans , , , , , , , , , , ,091.5 Total 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,863.9 DSta Monetary and Fiscal Statistics Division 5