Economic Monthly ASEAN & India

Transcription

1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE JULY 8 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON JULY 8) MUFG Bank, Ltd. A member of MUFG, a global financial group. Indonesia The central bank raised policy rate again following May Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank of Indonesia, decided to raise its benchmark 7-day Reverse Repo rate by basis points (bps) (from.7% to.%) at BI board of governors meeting held on 9 June following two rate hikes in May (from.% to.7% on 7 and May, bps hike each). BI said in a statement that the hike is to maintain currency and economic stability in response to expectations of USD appreciation due to higher US interest rates. BI also announced to relax the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio in order to maintain domestic economic recovery momentum and financial system stability, and such relaxation of regulation will be effective on August. Motor vehicle sales was +7. % YoY in May, increasing for the second consecutive month Motor vehicle sales stood at,98 (+7.% YoY) in May, increasing for the second consecutive month. Looking at the breakdown, Commercial Vehicles recorded -.% YoY, decreasing for the first time in a year and four months. Meanwhile Passenger Vehicles increased to +9.9% YoY. Looking at the breakdown of Passenger Vehicles, Affordable Energy Saving Cars recovered to +.% YoY in April-May average after having seen around % fall since August last year Chart:Consumer Price and Policy Rate Others Transportation, Communication & Finance Housing, Electricity, Gas & Fuel Former Policy Rate Foods Current Policy Rate Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), (Year) CPI (th) Chart : Motor Vehicle Sales Motor Vehicle Sales (left axis) Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (right axis) 7 8 (Yr) Source: Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO), Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

2 . Malaysia Motor vehicle sales was -.% YoY in May Motor vehicle sales recorded,98 (-.% YoY) in May. Both Passenger Vehicles (-.9% YoY) and Commercial Vehicles (-.% YoY) decreased. Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) pointed out that customers were holding back on the purchase due to the government s announcement of zero rated (previous tax rate: %) Goods & Services Tax (GST) effective June. According to various automakers, motor vehicle sales since the beginning of June has been strong owing to rush demand prior to the reintroduction of Sales and Services Tax (SST) in September (*) and Hari Raya festive season promotional campaigns, in addition to the effect of scrapping GST and some automakers claimed stock shortage. CPI accelerated to +.8% YoY in May Consumer Price Index (CPI) was +.8% YoY in May, accelerating for the second consecutive month as fuel prices rose for the first time in four months and recorded +.% YoY. Meanwhile, Core CPI was +.% YoY, decelerating for the seventh consecutive month. (*) Note: The new administration announced the move to reintroduce the Sales and Services Tax (sales tax: tax rate -% (normally %), services tax: tax rate %), which was abolished in. The actual tax rate is yet to be determined. Chart:Motor Vehicle Sales Chart : Consumer Price 7 (th) Services (left axis) Fuels (left axis) Goods exc Fuels (left axis) CPI (Overall) (left axis) CPI (Core) (left axis) Policy Rate (right axis) (%) - Motor Vehicle Sales (left axis) Motor Vehicle Sales YoY (rights axis) 7 8 (Yr) Source: Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), (Yr) Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, - -. Philippines CPI accelerated to +.% YoY in June, the central bank raised policy rate for the second consecutive month Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated further to +.% YoY in June, continuing to far exceed upper limit of the targeted range (-%). Behind this, there are factors such as the added charge from increased excise tax rates since January, a rise in crude oil prices and weak peso. Furthermore, core CPI also accelerated to +.% YoY and inflationary pressure from demand side has been mounting. On June, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the central bank of Philippines, decided to raise its benchmark Overnight Reverse Repo rate by bps to.%. It follows a similar bps Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

3 hike in the previous month, in light of recent acceleration of inflation and elevated inflation expectations as well as the movement of international financial markets. Current account deficit narrowed to USD -8 million in Jan-Mar Current account balance recorded USD -8 million in Jan-Mar, making deficit narrower owing to smaller trade deficit and wider surplus in services balance. Meanwhile financial account balance recorded. billion of net outflow as the amount of direct investment became smaller and portfolio investment turned to net outflow. 7 Chart : Consumer Price and Policy Rate Others Transport Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI: Core Chart: Current Account Balance (USD bn) (% of GDP) Current Account (right axis)... Former Policy Rate. Current Policy Rate (Yr) Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, - CA: Secondary Income - CA: Primary Income -. CA: Services Trade Balance - Current Account (CA) (Year) Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), -.. Singapore Non-oil domestic exports accelerated to +.% YoY in May Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) accelerated to +.% YoY in May from the previous month (+.8% YoY). While Electronics (% of total share) declined (-7.8% YoY), Non-electronic machinery (%) and Chemicals (%) saw high growth. Looking at the breakdown by destinations, exports to advanced countries/regions such as Japan, US and EU increased while exports to Asia including China (% of total share) declined. Employment increased by +,7 QoQ in Jan-Mar The number of employment was.7 million (+,7 QoQ) in Jan-Mar, increasing for the second consecutive quarter. Looking at the breakdown by industries, employment in Services increased to.77 million (+, QoQ). Looking at the breakdown of Services industry, employment in Retail Trade and Accommodation & Food Services declined while employment in highly specialized sectors such as Financial & Insurance Services, Education and Healthcare increased. Manufacturing was 8, (-,8 QoQ), continuing to decline for three and a half years. Food continued to increase and Petroleum and Chemicals returned to increase for the first time in a year while Electronics declined for the first time in a year and a half, in addition to decline in Transport Equipment and Paper, Rubber, Plastic Products & Printing. Construction was, (-, QoQ), declining for the seventh consecutive quarter. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

4 Chart : Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) Others Foods Chemicals Machinery non-electronics Electronics Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) (QoQ, th) Chart : Employment Services Construction Manufacturing Employment (Yr) Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) Singapore, (Year) Source: Singapore Ministry of Manpower (MOM),. Thailand Private consumption (sa) accelerated to +.7% YoY in May Private Consumption Index (PCI, seasonally adjusted) accelerated to +.7% YoY in May. Looking at the breakdown, Durables such as motor vehicles and Services both showed higher growth compared to the previous month. Consumption is likely to keep expanding as employment and income environment continues to improve and Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recorded 8. point in May, maintaining the highest level in three and a half years. CPI slowed to +.% YoY in June Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decelerated from the previous month to +.% YoY in June. Looking at the breakdown by items, Transport & Communication, backed by a rise in fuel prices, provided a boost while a drop in prices of Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages weighed on the overall index. Core inflation rate was +.8% YoY, remaining low level. 7 Chart : Private Consumption and Consumer Confidence (Points) Chart : Consumer Price CPI: Others CPI: Transport & Communication CPI: Housing & Furnishing CPI: Food & Alcoholic Beverages Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI (Core) Private Consumption Index (left axis) Consumer Confidence Index (right axis) (Yr) Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Thailand, (Year) Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

5 Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec. Vietnam Real GDP growth was +.8% YoY in Apr-Jun, remaining solid Real GDP growth was +.8% YoY in Apr-Jun. Although the growth rate decelerated from Jan-Mar (+7.% YoY), it continues to show a solid expansion. Looking at the growth in the first half of 8 (+7.% YoY) by industries, Manufacturing maintained high growth (+.% YoY) supported by export expansion and Services also accelerated (+.9% YoY) on the back of firm domestic demand. Current account balance maintained a surplus of USD.9 billion in Jan-Mar Current account balance logged a surplus of USD.9 billion in Jan-Mar, securing a surplus for the fourth consecutive quarter, on the back of firm export of goods and increasing number of international tourists, as well as increasing inflow of remittances from overseas Vietnamese. Financial account balance maintained a surplus of USD.8 billion backed by stable inflow of direct investment and continuing capital inflow by portfolio investment although Other Investments narrowed Chart:Real GDP (YTD YoY, %) (USD bn) Chart : Balance of Payments Errors & Omissions Other investments Portfolio Investment Direct Investment Current Account (CA) Financial Account Overall Balance Real GDP (%) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery (%) Mining (8%) Manufacturing (%) Construction (%) Service (9%) Note: Cumulative YTD. Figures in ( ) shows the % share in total GDP(7). Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Source: State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), (Year) 7. India RBI raised policy rate in four and a half years The Reserve Bank of India, the central bank of India, decided to raise the policy repo rate (from.% to.%) at the Monetary Policy Committee on June for the first time since January, in about four and a half years. The decision was to achieve the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of % in a sustained manner while supporting growth, RBI said in a statement. RBI also stressed that it would maintain the neutral stance of monetary policy while raising an inflation projection from +.% YoY to +.7% YoY in the second half of FY 8/9 after CPI recorded +.9% YoY in May, accelerating for the second consecutive month. Current account deficit narrowed to -.9% of Nominal GDP in Jan-Mar Current account balance was USD -. billion (-.9% of Nominal GDP) in Jan-Mar, deficit narrowed from the previous quarter. Looking at the breakdown, balance on services and balance on income maintained surplus, and trade deficit narrowed. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

6 Looking at financial account balance, a surplus of portfolio investment became smaller while surplus of direct investment and other investments widened from the previous quarter. As a result, overall balance maintained a surplus for the fifth consecutive quarter Chart:Consumer Price Policy Rate CPI: Food and Beverages, Tobacco CPI: Miscellaneous CPI: Fuel and Light CPI: Housing CPI: Clothing and Footwear Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year) Source: Government of India Central Statistics Office (CSO), - - (% of Nominal GDP) Chart : Balance of Payments - Current Account FDI Portfolio Investment Other Investment Error Overrall Balance Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), (Year) Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation India, Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

7 Appendix: Economic indicators in major Asian economies Indonesia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 8 9, Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD),7,, Q Q 8Q Q MAR-8 APR MAY JUN Real GDP Growth Rate (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Industrial Production Index (.8) (.) (.7) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.7) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit),,9,,79,79, 7, 7,7 9,,8,8,98 (-.) (.9) (.) (7.8) (-.) (.) (-.) (.) (7.) Consumer Price Index* (.) (.) (.8) (.8) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Exports (fob) (USD mn),,8 8,79,,,7,87,7, (-.) (-.) (.) (.) (.) (8.8) (.) (9.) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn),9,,9,7,9,99,, 7, (-9.9) (-.9) (.7) (.9) (.) (.) (8.9) (.) (8.) Trade Balance (USD mn) 7,7 9,,8, 997, -, -, Current Account Balance (USD mn) -7,9 -,9-7,8 -, -, -, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),8,9,87,8,87,,,8 BI Rate 7. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate Exchange Rate (IDR/USD)*,9,,8,,8,79,97,79,8,7, Stock Index,9.,9.7,.7,9.9,.7,89.,799.,89.,99.,98.,799. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate w as adopted as benchmark on August 9,. Source: Bank Indonesia (BI), CEIC, Bloomberg etc, Malaysia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q Q 8Q Q MAR-8 APR MAY JUN GDP Per Capita (USD) 9, 9,99 9,88 Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.9) (.) Industrial Production Index (.) (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.9) (.) (.) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit),7 8,8 7,,,9,8 9,98 7,89,98 (.) (-.) (-.) (-.) (-.7) (-.) (-.9) (.) (-.) Consumer Price Index (.) (.) (.8) (.) (.) (.8) (.) (.) (.8) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 99,88 89,798 7,89, 8,9,,,7,7 (-.9) (-.7) (.8) (.) (.9) (9.8) (.) (9.) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 7, 8, 9,9 9,88,, 7,879 8, 8, (-.7) (-.) (.8) (.9) (9.) (.) (.7) (.8) (8.9) Trade Balance (USD mn),,,9,,8 8,,7,,7 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 9,9 7, 9,,,7,87 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 9,979 9,7,878 99,,878,, 7,97 Three-month KLIBOR (%) Exchange Rate (MYR/USD)* Stock Index,9.,.7,79.8,7.,79.8,8.,9.,8.,87.,7.,9. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), CEIC etc, Philippines Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 9 Population (person mn) Q Q 8Q Q MAR-8 APR MAY JUN GDP Per Capita (USD),88,9,989 Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.9) (.7) (7.) (.) (.8) Industrial Production Index (.) (.9) (-.) (-.) (-7.) (8.) (7.) (9.) (9.8) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit),,88 7,9,7,8 8,7 8,,8, (9.) (.9) (7.) (.) (.) ( 8.) (-.8) (-.9) (-.7) Consumer Price Index (.7) (.) (.9) (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 8,87 7, 8,7 7,798,88,8,97, (-.) (-.) (9.7) (7.) (.) (-.) (-.8) (-8.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 7,7 8,8 9,9,9,77, 8,9 8,79 (8.7) (8.) (.) (8.7) (.) (.9) (.) (.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -, -,7-7,8 -,79-9,87-8,8 -, -, Current Account Balance (USD mn) 7, -,99 -,8,8 -, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 7,9 7, 7, 7,897 7, 7, 7, 7,8 7, TB Rate Exchange Rate (PHP/USD)* Stock Index,9.,8. 8,8. 8,7. 8,8. 7, ,9.7 7, ,89. 7,97. 7,9.7 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales: Quarterly/Monthly sales are based on data by Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) /only Calender Year sales include data by Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors (AVID) (some are duplicated). Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas(BSP), IMF, CEIC etc, 7 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

8 Singapore Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q Q 8Q Q MAR-8 APR MAY JUN GDP Per Capita (USD),99, 7,7 Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (-.) (.7) (.) ( 9.) (.8) ( 9.7) (.7) (9.) (.) Real Retail Sales Index (RSI) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.9) (-.) (.) Consumer Price Index (-.) (-.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 9,8,9, 8,7,9 8,,,9 8,7 (-.) (-.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (-.) (.) (.) Imports (cif) (SGD mn),,,,,98,8 9,7 8,,89 (-.) (-.7) (.) (.) (9.) (.8) (-.) (.) (9.) Trade Balance (SGD mn) 8,,7,899,9,9,8,87,9,8 Current Account Balance (SGD mn) 77,8 8,97 8,, 7,7,8 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 7,, 79,9 7, 79,9 8,9 8,9 87, Three-month SIBOR (SGD,%) Exchange Rate (SGD/USD)* Stock Index,88.7,88.8,.9,9.9,.9,8.,8.7,8.,.9,8.,8.7 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Singapore Department of Statistics, CEIC etc, Thailand Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn).7.9. GDP Per Capita (USD),8,9,88 7 7Q Q 8Q Q MAR-8 APR MAY JUN Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.8) Industrial Production Index (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Private Consumption Indicator (.) (.7) (.7) (.9) (.) (.) (.8) (.) (.7) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 799, 78,788 87,7,7,9 7,9 9,8 79, 8,9 (-9.) (-.9) (.) (.) (8.) (.) (.) (.) (7.9) Consumer Price Index (-.9) (.) (.7) (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.8) (.) (.) (.) Unemployment Rate (%)* Exports (fob) (USD mn),,,7,,,788,7 8,98, (-.) (.) (9.7) (.) (.) (9.9) (.) (.) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 87,8 77,7,77,9,98, 9, 8,7 9, (-.) (-.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.7) (.7) (.7) Trade Balance (USD mn),798,9,9, 7,,,,9 Current Account Balance (USD mn), 8,7 8,7,9,77,77,, 98 Capital and Financial Account (USD mn) -,799 -, -8,8 -, -,8 -, -8 External Debt (USD mn),78,9 9, 8,9 9,,7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),,7 9, 9,977 9, 9, 9, 8,7, One-day Repo Rate (%) Exchange Rate (THB/USD)* Stock Index,88.,.9,7.7,7.,7.7,77., Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), NESDB, CEIC etc, Vietnam Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 9 Population (person mn) Q Q 8Q Q MAR-8 APR MAY JUN GDP Per Capita (USD),9,,8 Real GDP Growth Rate (.7) (.) (.8) (7.) (7.7) (7.) (.8) Industrial Production Index (9.8) (7.) (9.) (9.7) (.) (.9) (8.) (8.9) (.) (.) (.) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 8,8 7,8, 9,8,78 8,8,9,7,7 (.) (.) (-7.8) (-.) (-.) (-.7) (-8.) (-.7) (.) Consumer Price Index (.) (.7) (.) (.) (.7) (.8) (.8) (.7) (.8) (.9) (.7) Exports (fob) (USD mn),7 7,8,9,8,9,8 7,98, 8,7 9,9 9, (7.9) (9.) (.8) (.7) (.) (.) (8.8) (.) (.) (.) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn),7 7,8,7,8 7,8,98 7,89 8,87 7,,9 9,7 (.) (.) (.9) (.) (7.) (.7) (.9) (.7) (-.) (.8) (8.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -,,777,,7,9,7 8,8, -9 - Current Account Balance (USD mn) 9 8,,,,8,9 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 8,,7 9,7, 9,7,, Refinancing Rate Exchange Rate (VND/USD)*,9,,78,7,7,77,7,77,78,77,8 Stock Index ,7.,7., Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), IMF, CEIC etc, 8 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

9 India Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn),,7, Population (person mn),8,99, FY FY FY7 FY7Q FY7Q FY7Q FY8Q MAR-8 APR MAY JUN GDP Per Capita (USD),9,7,977 Real GDP Growth Rate (8.) (7.) (.7) (.) ( 7.) ( 7.7) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.9) Motor Vehicle Sales: Passenger Vehicle (PV),789,8,7,79,87,7 9,87 79,9 8,8,7 98,,8 (7.) (9.) (7.9) (.) (.) (7.) (.) (7.) (9.7) Wholesale Price Index (-.) (.8) (.9) (.8) (.8) (.8) (.7) (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.9) Exports (fob) (SGD mn),9 7,8,987 7,8 7, 79,899 9,9,98 8,8 (-.) (.) (9.) (.7) (.) (.) (-.7) (.) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 8,7 8,,87 8, 9,78,7,8 9,,8 (-.) (.9) (.) (9.7) (.8) (.9) (7.) (.) (.9) Trade Balance (USD mn) -8,77-8, -9,88 -,8 -, -,77 -,9 -,77 -,8 Current Account Balance (USD mn) -,88 -,9-8, -,9 -,7 -,7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),89,9,7 79,77 89,,7,7 99, 9,8 Repo Rate(%) Exchange Rate (INR/USD)* Stock Index, 9,,99,8,7,99,,99,,, Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. "Motor Vehicle Sales" include Utility Vehicle (UV) and Multipurpose Vehicle (MPV). Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Central Statistics Office, CEIC etc, 9 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

10 Cambodia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 7 8 Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,,,, Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (7.) (7.) (7.) (7.) (.9) (7.) Consumer Price Index (.) (.) (.9) (.9) (.9) (.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) , -,98 -, -,7 -,7 Trade Balance (USD mn) -,8 -, -, -,9 -, -,7 -, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),,,7,,,88 8,9 External Debt (USD mn),8,7,8 7, 7,9 9,9 NA Exchange Rate (KHR/USD)*,8,9,,7,8,8,9 Myanmar Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 988,8,7,8,7,9, Real GDP Growth Rate 9. (.) ( 7.) ( 8.) ( 8.) ( 7.) (.9) Consumer Price Index ( 7.7) (.) (.) ( 8.9) (.) ( 9.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn),9 -, -,8 - -,887 -, -,88 Trade Balance (USD mn),8-9 -, -, -, -,7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),77 7,,9 8,,,8 NA External Debt (USD mn) 8,7 8,9 7,8 7,,, NA Exchange Rate (MMK/USD)* ,.,.87 Bangladesh Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,,,7 Real GDP Growth Rate. (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (7.) Consumer Price Index (7.) (.9) (8.7) (.8) (7.) (.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn),7 -,8-7,88,9,9,8 Trade Balance (USD mn) -7,8 -, -,7 -, -,8-9,97-9, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn), 8,, 7,,78 7,,77 External Debt (USD mn),88 7,77 8,9,997, 8, NA Exchange Rate (BDT/USD)* Pakistan Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD),,9,88,9,,9, Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.7) (.) (.) (.7) (.7) (.) Consumer Price Index (.) (.7) (.) (7.) (8.) (.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -,9 -,8 -,9 -, -,79 -,9 Trade Balance (USD mn) -,98 -, -, -9,8 -, -,88 -,8 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),,8,,,87 7,8 9, External Debt (USD mn),,,,7,,8 NA Exchange Rate (PKR/USD)* Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Trade balance is BOP base. Myanmar's Nominal GDP, Real GDP Growth Rate, GDP Per Capita and External Debt are FY (Apr-Mar) base. Myanmar's exchange rate system was transformed from fixed exchange rate system to managed float regime in April. Bangladesh and Pakistan's Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, Real GDP Grow th Rate, Current Account Balance and Trade Balance are FY (Jul-Jun) base. Source: ADB, IMF, Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

11 Appendix: Comparison of economic indicators in major Asian economies. Nominal GDP (USD bn) ,88 8, 97, 9 7 7,87 9,8 7, ,, 9, ,,97 9 8,8 9 97,7,9, 7,,, 7,. Population (person mn) ,., ,., ,7., ,8., ,99., ,., GDP Per Capita (USD),79,8,9,7,7,7,9,,,,7,79,9,78 7,,9,98,8 7, 8,,97,9,8,89,89 7,7,7,, 7,,8,87 7,87,7 9,,88,99,8,9,9 7,978,,8 7,, 9,99,9,,9,,7 8,97,99, 7, 7,878 9,88,989 7,7,88,8,977 8,87,8,7 9,78. Real GDP Growth Rate Q Q Q Q.8. Consumer Price Index Note: India's figures are FY (Apr-Mar) base. Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, CEIC, Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8

12 . Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD bn) , , , , , ,9 8 Jun , Jul , 9 79 Aug , 8 Sep ,8 9 8 Oct ,8 9 8 Nov ,8 8 Dec ,9 8 Jan ,8 9 Feb-8 7 8, 9 Mar , 9 Apr , 9 May-8 7 9, External Debt (USD bn)(end-of-period value) , , ,78, ,8, ,, ,7, Exchange Rate to USD (Average value during the period) 9, , ,7,8....7, ,9, , ,, , ,, , , 7, , , Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, World Bank, Bloomberg, For further details, please contact the Economic Research Office, MUFG Bank Managing Director, Yasuhiro Ishimaru Tel: +8-()-- Written by Aki Fukuchi <aki_fukuchi@mufg.jp> Yuma Tsuchiya<yuma_tsuchiya@sg.mufg.jp> This report is intended for information purposes only and shall not be construed as solicitation to take any action such as purchasing/selling/investing financial market products. In taking any action, each reader is requested to act on the basis of his or her own judgment. This report is based on information believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. The contents of the report may be revised without advance notice. Also, this report is a literary work protected by the copyright act. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without express statement of its source. This report is also available for viewing online. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India July 8