Supply. Nominal Farm Income. Economic and Monetary Conditions, Febuary Real Farm Income. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Transcription

1 Economic and Monetary Conditions, Febuary Supply Farm income continued to contract, attributed mainly to decreased agricultural prices which outweighed the expansion in agricultural production. Manufacturing production expanded from the same period last year. The overall services sector continued to expand from the same period last year and improved from the previous month. Nominal Farm Income () H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb Nominal farm income P -7.4 Agricultural production P 7.1 Agricultural price Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data Real Farm Income Index sa ( = ) Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma 7 6 Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT (%YOY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Weight 11 Food & Beverages 2.2 Automotives - Passenger Cars - Commercial Vehicles - Engine Rubbers & Plastics Chemicals 8.2 IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Hard Disk Drive 3.2 Petroleum Others 16.5 MPI MPI sa % from last period P = Preliminary data. Seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of Industrial Economics H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb P Feb P (Cont) Feb P (%MoM) Index sa ( = ) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Export < 3% 3% < Export < 6% Export > 6% Source: Office of Industrial Economics, calculated by Bank of Thailand %MoM sa.4% 1.3%.3% Index sa ( = ) Other Manufacturing Indicators Electricity used in industry Import quantity of raw materials Index of hours worked in manufacturing (3mma) %MoM sa Source: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand -.8% 1.3% -.2% (%) Weight 211 Food & Beverages 2.2 Automotives Rubbers & Plastics Chemicals 8.2 IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Hard Disk Drive 3.2 Petroleum Others 16.5 CAPU sa Capacity Utilization (sa) P = Preliminary data. Seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of Industrial Economics Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb p 1

2 Economic and Monetary Conditions, Febuary ( = ) 13 Trade Sector Transportation Sector Business Services Communication Sector (RHS) Registration Fee for Real Estate (RHS) Services Sector Indicators ( = ) 16 6 Note: Sales from VAT collection in trade, transportation, business services, and communication sectors, latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand. Share in GDP : Trade (15.1%), Transportation (5.7%), Telecommunication (1.5%), Real Estate and Business Services (8.1%) Source: Department of Tourism, The Revenue Department,and Department of Land 14 ( = ) Other Services Sector Indicators Number of Foreign Tourists Thai Visitors BTS Ridership (Sky Train) Source: The Tourism Authority of Thailand, Department of Tourism, The Transport Co. Ltd., Bangkok Mass Transit System, calculated by Bank of Thailand 2

3 Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2.2 Domestic demand Private consumption expanded from the same period last year in all categories, albeit at a slower pace due to accelerated growth in the earlier periods. However, fundamental factors supporting the overall household purchasing power remained soft, particularly in the low-income group. Private investment continued to expand from the same period last year due to the expansion in machinery and equipment investment. Public spending, excluding transfers, expanded in both current and capital spending. Private Consumption Indicators % YoY H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb P Feb P (%MoM) Non-durable Index Semi-durable Index Durable Index Service Index E. E (less) Net tourist spending Private Consumption Index Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary Data, E = Estimated Data, R = Revised Data Source: Bank of Thailand (212 = ) Durable Index and Semi-durable Index Durable Index Semi-durable Index (RHS) 6 Source: Bank of Thailand (212 = ) (212 = ) Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index (212 = ) Nielsen s FMCG Index 16 excl. Alcohol and Tabacco 145 Fuel Index P (RHS) P = Preliminary Data Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand 85 Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index (212 = ) (212 = ) Net Tourist Spending Index** (RHS Service Index Note: * Combination of 1) hotel and restaurant VAT and 2) transportation sales ** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad Source: Bank of Thailand Consumer Confidence Index (Current) Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = 5) Agriculture Non-Agriculture 1 Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb P FebP (%MoM) E. E Construction Materials Index Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery Sales E. E Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment Private Investment Indicators Private Investment Index Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary Data E = Estimated Data Source : Bank of Thailand 3

4 Economic and Monetary Conditions, February Million USD sa 6, 5, 4, Equipment Indicators Imports of Capital Domestic Machinery Sales (Mil Baht, RHS) Car Registered for Investment (Unit, RHS) 95,534 E 4,88 34,692 3, Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms. Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand sa,,, 6, 4, 2, 1, m 2, 9mma 7, 6, 5, Construction Indicators Index sa (21 = ) Permitted Construction Area Construction Material Index (RHS) 98 4, Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms. Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand 4,562 E Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 5) BSI 3 Source : Bank of Thailand Business Sentiment Index Expected BSI (next 3 months) May Central government expenditure (excl. subsidies/grants and miscellaneous other expense) Billion Baht Average Current Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht Capital Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Source: Comptroller General s Department and Bank of Thailand Feb Billion Baht (3.2% YoY) Feb Billion Baht (1.7% YoY) Fiscal Position (Cash basis) Billion Baht FY FY P FY P FY P Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Revenue () Expenditure 1/ () Budgetary B/L Non-Budgetary B/L 2 2 Cash B/L (CG) Primary B/L (CG) Net Financing 2 2 Treasury B/L Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Exclude principal loan repayment Source: Fiscal Policy Office Comptroller General s Department Bank of Thailand 4

5 Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 3 The global economy and external sector The current account continued to post a surplus as contributed from the growth in the value of merchandise exports and tourism receipts. The capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from both the assets and liabilities positions. Diffusion index (Unchanged = 5) Source: ISM, Markit Economics G3 Manufacturing PMI US Euro area Japan ( = ) 7 Asian Export Performance Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil and gas. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand PH TH CN INDO TW KR MY SG = 19.9 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 19.4 Bn USD Agriculture Fishery Manufacturing Agro-manufacturing Electronics Electrical Appliances Automotive Machinery & Equipment Petroleum Related Total (BOP Basis) Ex. Gold Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related Export Growth Share P P Feb = 19.8 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 19.5 Bn USD P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording passing through Customs while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between R and NR. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data Feb (%MoM) = 18.6 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 18. Bn USD Consumer Raw material & Intermediate o/w Fuel o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel Capital Others Total (BOP Basis) Ex. Gold - Share P P Import Growth Feb = 17.5 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 16.7 Bn USD P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb Feb (%MoM) %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value is recorded by BOP basis. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data 5

6 Economic and Monetary Conditions, February Financial Account Million USD P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb E YTD 1. Assets TDI - Equity Thai portfolio investment - Equity sec. investment - Debt sec. investment Loans Other investments - Trade credits 2. Liabilities FDI - Equity Foreign portfolio investment - Equity sec. investment - Debt sec. investment Loans Other investments - Trade credits Total financial flows (1+2) Source : Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E= Estimated data Balance of Payments Billion USD P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb E YTD Trade balance Exports (f.o.b.) Imports (f.o.b.) Services & income Current account Capital and financial account Government Central bank ODCs Others Net error & omissions Overall balance International reserves Net forward position Source : Bank of Thailand E= Estimated data P = Preliminary data Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin Share Asia ex. China & Malaysia China Malaysia Europe ex. Russia Russia Others 14.8 Total. (million persons) H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb P (8.8) (9.3) ) %MoM sa Index sa ( = ) Inbound Tourists Index Total China (share 28%) Malaysia (share 1%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 3%) Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%) Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports 6

7 -17 Apr Oct Apr Oct Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec Feb Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec Feb-18 Mar-18 Economic and Monetary conditions, Febuary 2.4 Monetary and financial conditions Total corporate financing increased from the previous month, mainly from increased funding through business credits. New credit expanded for loans extended to both households and businesses. As at end of month, the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar slightly depreciated, while the NEER slightly appreciated. Commercial Bank Interest Rates* % p.a. Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 23 Mar 18 2-month deposit rate Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks MLR Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks MRR Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya, Bank of Ayudhya Source: Bank of Thailand % p.a Source: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA Government Bond Yields As of 23 Mar 18 1D BRP 1M 2Y 5Y 1Y Billion baht Change in Total Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA New Private Credit Extended by Other Depository Corporations Billion baht % Note: Business credits and debt: change in outstanding Equity: new issuance at par value Source: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET -4 MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS) - Household Source: Bank of Thailand Business

8 3-Dec Feb-16 7-Mar Mar Apr May-16 9-Jun-16 3-Jun Aug-16 7-Sep Sep Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec Dec Feb-17 2-Mar Mar Apr May-17 1-Jun Jun Aug Aug Sep-17 1-Oct-17 3-Nov Nov Dec Feb Feb Mar-18 3-Dec Feb-16 7-Mar Mar Apr May-16 9-Jun-16 3-Jun Aug-16 7-Sep Sep Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec Dec Feb-17 2-Mar Mar Apr May-17 1-Jun Jun Aug Aug Sep-17 1-Oct-17 3-Nov Nov Dec Feb Feb Mar-18 Economic and Monetary conditions, Febuary Index (212 = ) Appreciation NEER25 USDTHB (RHS) Exchange Rates 23 Mar 2 8 USDTHB = 3.22 NEER25 = Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand USDTHB (reverse) % 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5%.5% -.5% -1.5% -2.5% -3.5% -4.5% Changes in Trading Partners Currencies per USD -3.5% -1.2% %MoM ( vs 18) %MTD (23 Mar 18 vs ) -.3%.4%.9% -2.6% -2.5% -1.9% -1.7% -.6% Note: End-period data, + = Appreciation against USD Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand - 1.4%.1% -1.3% -1.1%.6%.%.5%.%.5% -.6% -.5% -.4% -.2% AUD IDR INR EUR PHP GBP KRW SGD CNY TWD MYR THB JPY 2.1% 1.5% Regional Exchange Rate Volatility % p.a. 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % THB CNY IDR KRW MYR PHP As of 23 Mar Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand 8

9 Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2.5 Financial stability Headline inflation softened due mainly to the deceleration of energy and fresh food prices. Core inflation edged up slightly from the previous month. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate increased slightly from last month, but the overall level remained low. External stability remained strong and resilient to withstand volatility in the global financial markets Contribution to Headline Inflation Fresh Food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core Inflation (72.56%) ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Headline Inflation.42% -3 Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand Contribution to Core Inflation Rent (19.62%) Food and Beverage ex. Alcohol (28.17%) Other Goods and Services (52.21%) ( ) Share in Core Inflation Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand Core Inflation.63% % Unemployment rate 1.3 % Unemployment rate (sa) 1.3 % Unemployment Rate Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Data from onward are based on The 21 Population and Housing Census Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO ( =) Employment Index Total Agriculture (31%) Manufacturing (17%) Construction (6%) Trade (17%) Service (29%) Note: Data from onward are based on The 21 Population and Housing Census. ( ) denotes share in total employment Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT 9

10 Economic and Monetary Conditions, February Percentage Return on Assets and Operating Profit Margin by Sectors RoA OPM Commerce ConstructionManufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Petrochemical Steel Overall Interest Coverage Ratio and Debt to Equity Ratio by Sectors Times ICR P5 D/E P5 (RHS) Times Commerce ConstructionManufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Petrochemical Steel Overall Note: 5th percentile, *Manufacturing exclude petroleum and petrochemical, Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand External Debt Outstanding Billion USD P P P Feb18-18 Change H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb E Total 1. General government Central Bank* Other Depository Corporations (ODC) Other Sectors Other Financial Corporations (OFC) Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%) Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data Solvency Indicators External Stability Indicators Criteria P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Feb E Current Account / GDP (%) 1.7 Debt / GDP (%) < / 35.2 Debt / XGS 1/ (%) < / Debt Service Ratio (%) Liquidity Indicators Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time Gross Reserves / Imports 2/ > 3 times ST Debt / Total Debt (%) Note: XGS Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average) Severely indebted countries Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data 1