Economic and Monetary Conditions, December Economic and Monetary Conditions December 2018

Transcription

1 Economic and Monetary Conditions December Monetary Policy Group uary 2019

2 Content 1 Executive Summary 1 2 The Thai Economy Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector Real Estate Sector 2.2 Domestic Demand 5 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position 2.3 The global economy and external sector 7 The global economy External sector Balance of payments 2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 9 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates 2.5 Financial stability 11 Inflation Labor market External stability 3 Link to related statistics and contents 12

3 1. Executive Summary In December, the Thai economy continued to expand from the previous month. Private consumption indicators suggested expansion in all spending categories, albeit at a slower pace due partly to the high base effect. Manufacturing production and private investment indicators suggested continued expansion. The number of foreign tourists continued to increase. Nonetheless, the value of merchandise exports and public spending contracted, particularly in capital expenditure. On the stability front, headline inflation decelerated due to the decrease in retail petroleum prices and the decline in fresh food prices. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate slightly increased from the previous month. The current account continued to post a surplus while the overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit. Details of the economic conditions are as follows: Private consumption indicators continued to expand from the same period last year in all spending categories, albeit at a slower pace. This was partially due to the high base effect in the previous year from accelerated spending in the services and durables categories. The fundamental factors supporting the overall purchasing power remained favourable, as farm income rebounded from the increase in agricultural production, particularly white rice, and non-farm income remained high. The growth in private consumption contributed to the increase in manufacturing production, particularly the production of automotives and petroleum products, in line with the growth in domestic car sales. Private investment indicators expanded from the same period last year. Investment in machinery and equipment expanded, driven by domestic machinery sales which continued to expand in a number of categories. The number of newly registered motor vehicles for investment also expanded. However, investment in construction remained subdued, particularly permitted construction area although construction material sales continued to expand. The number of foreign tourist arrivals expanded at 7.7 percent compared to the same period last year, owing to the growth in the number of tourists of major nationalities, including Malaysia, India, South Korea, Japan and Russia. Moreover, the number of tourists from China expanded for the first time in five months after the Phuket tour boat incident, exhibiting a positive momentum. The growth was attributable to the launch of new direct flight routes to Thailand, together with the exemption of the visa on arrival fee, which commenced on the 15 th of November. After seasonal adjustment, the number of foreign tourists increased from the previous month, especially those from China and India. The value of merchandise exports contracted by 1.6 percent, and excluding gold, the value shrank by 2.0 percent. The contraction can be attributed to (1) the high base effect in several products such as hard disk drives, mobile phones, agricultural and agro-manufacturing products, especially rice and palm oil, and electrical appliances, in particular solar panels and washing machines, and (2) weaker global demand as a result of the protectionist trade policies between the US and China and slower economic growth in a number of major trading economies, coupled with the downturn in electronic cycle. Consequently, the export of electronic products, rubber and rubber products declined. Nonetheless, exports of petroleum-related products expanded, in terms of quantity, and automotive and automotive parts, following the export of tires to the US, as a substitute to Chinese export. The value of merchandise imports contracted at 6.7 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, the value of merchandise imports expanded by 2.5 percent. The expansion was attributable to the growth in imports of (1) raw and intermediate goods, from the imports of crude oil, from both quantity and price; (2) consumer goods, from semi-durable goods, in line with the growth in private consumption; (3) automotive products, particularly passenger cars and automotive parts, consistent with the continued expansion of domestic car sales. 1

4 Public spending, excluding transfers, marginally contracted. The decline in capital expenditure was the result of delayed disbursement in order to reassess and align investment projects to the master plan under the 20 year National Strategic Framework. Meanwhile, current spending rose from expenditure on civil servants compensation. On the stability front, headline inflation decelerated to 0.36 percent from 0.94 percent last month, due to the decline in retail petroleum prices in line with the fall in global crude oil prices, and the decline in fresh food prices, particularly those of vegetables and fruits. The core inflation remained unchanged. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate slightly increased from last month. The current account posted a surplus from both trade and services balances. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from the assets position, attributable to deposits abroad by the Other Depository Corporations (ODCs), in order to adjust their foreign currency positions and the provision of loans to foreign private businesses, and Thai Direct Investment (TDI) abroad particularly loans to affiliated companies. Overall economic activity in the fourth quarter of continued to gain further traction from the previous quarter. On the domestic front, private consumption indicators suggested expansion in all spending categories, boosting manufacturing production. Private investment indicators also signified growth, particularly in machinery and equipment. Nevertheless, public spending declined mainly from the contraction in capital expenditure. However, external demand softened as the value of merchandise exports grew at a slower pace. The tourism sector recorded substantial growth, despite the decline in the number of Chinese tourists. The continued expansion was partly driven by government s tourism promotion measures. On the stability front, headline inflation decelerated from the previous quarter, following the decline in retail petroleum prices and decelerated core inflation. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged. The current account continued to post a surplus while the capital and financial account registered a deficit. 2

5 2. The Thai Economy 2.1 Supply Farm income expanded from the same period last year supported mainly by the increase in agricultural production. Manufacturing production expanded slightly from the same period last year mainly from the production of automotives. The overall services sector declined from the previous month, particularly in public administration services, transportation and communication services. Nominal Farm Income (%YoY) H1 H2 Q3 Q Nov Dec Nominal farm incomep Agricultural productionp Agricultural price Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data Real Farm Income Index sa ( = ) Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT (%YOY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Weight 2011 MPI sa % from last period P = Preliminary data. Seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of Industrial Economics H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec P Dec P (Cont) Dec P (%MoM) Food & Beverages Automotives Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles Engine Rubbers & Plastics Chemicals IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Hard Disk Drive Petroleum Others MPI Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Index sa ( = ) Export < 30% 30% < Export < 60% Export > 60% Source: Office of Industrial Economics, calculated by Bank of Thailand %MoM sa 0.5% -0.8% -8.8% Index sa ( = ) Other Manufacturing Indicators Electricity used in industry Import quantity of raw materials Index of hours worked in manufacturing (3mma) %MoM sa Source: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand 3.0% -7.7% 1.8% 3 (%) Weight 2011 Capacity Utilization (sa) Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec p Food & Beverages Automotives Rubbers & Plastics Chemicals IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Hard Disk Drive Petroleum Others CAPU sa P = Preliminary data. Seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of Industrial Economics

6 Index sa, 3mma ( = ) 140 Service Production Index Non-market Services (share 24.8%) 130 Market Services (share 75.2%) Service Production Index (SPI) Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports Index sa, 3mma ( = ) 130 Trade Sector Transportation Sector Business Services Communication Sector (RHS) Thai Visitors (RHS) Sales from VAT Collection and Other Indicator Index sa, 3mma ( = ) Note: Sales from VAT collection in trade, transportation, business services, and communication sectors, latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand. Share in GDP : Trade (15.2%), Transportation and Communication (10.3%), Real Estate and Business Services (8.2%) Source: The Tourism Authority of Thailand and The Revenue Department 140 New Mortgage Loans from Commercial Banks in Bangkok and Vicinity Area* Thousand units,sa 25 Low-rise residents Condominium Total Q1 Q1 Q1 * seasonally adjusted by BOT Source: Bank of Thailand Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q4/ Newly Launched Properties in Bangkok and Vicinity Area Thousand units,sa 45 Low-rise residents Condominium Total Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Source Agency for Real Estate Affairs AREA and calculated by BOT Q4/ Index (2009 = ) 200 Single house 1 Condominium Housing Price index Townhouse Land Q4/ Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Source Mortgage loan reported by commercial banks, calculated by BOT

7 2.2 Domestic demand Private consumption indicators expanded in all spending categories, although at a slightly softer pace, due to the high base effect from the same period last year. The fundamental factors supporting the overall purchasing power remained favourable. Private investment indicators continued to expand from investment in machinery and equipment. However, public spending excluding transfers, slightly contracted from capital expenditure. Private Consumption Indicators % YoY 2 H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec P Dec P (%MoM) Non-durable Index Semi-durable Index Durable Index Service Index E 1.1 E (less) Net tourist spending Private Consumption Index Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary Data, E = Estimated Data, R = Revised Data Source: Bank of Thailand Durable Index and Semi-durable Index Index sa, 3mma ( = ) Source: Bank of Thailand Semi-durable Index Durable Index Index sa, 3mma ( = ) Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index Nielsen s FMCG Index excl. Alcohol and Tobacco Fuel Index P (RHS) Index sa, 3mma ( = ) P = Preliminary Data Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index Index sa, 3mma Index sa, 3mma ( = ) ( = ) Service Index Net Tourist Spending Index** (RHS Note: * Combination of 1) hotel and restaurant VAT and 2) transportation sales ** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad Source: Bank of Thailand Consumer Confidence Index Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = ) Total Current Next 6 months Average 5 years = Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) H1 H2 Q3 Q4 P Nov Dec P DecP (%MoM) E. 2. E 5.0 E Construction Materials Index Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery Sales E.. E. E Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment Private Investment Indicators Private Investment Index Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary Data E = Estimated Data Source : Bank of Thailand 5

8 Index sa ( =) 140 Equipment Indicators Real Imports of Capital Goods Domestic Machinery Sales Car Registered for Investment 60 Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms. Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand Index sa ( =) Construction Indicators Construction Materials Index Permitted Construction Area (RHS) Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms. Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand 1,000 m 2, 9mma 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50) BSI 40 Source : Bank of Thailand Business Sentiment Index Expected BSI (next 3 months) Mar Dec 18. Central government expenditure (excl. subsidies/grants and miscellaneous other expense) Billion Baht Average Current Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht Capital Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Source: Comptroller General s Department and Bank of Thailand Dec Billion Baht (4.0% YoY) Dec Billion Baht (-14.2% YoY) Fiscal Position (Cash basis) FY P FY2019 P Billion Baht FY FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Nov Dec Revenue (%YoY) Expenditure 1/ (%YoY) Budgetary B/L 2 2 Non-Budgetary B/L Cash B/L (CG) Primary B/L (CG) Net Financing Treasury B/L Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Exclude principal loan repayment Source: Fiscal Policy Office Comptroller General s Department Bank of Thailand 6

9 Economic and Monetary conditions, December 2.3 The global economy and external sector The current account continued to post a surplus from both trade and services balances. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from the assets position. Diffusion index (Unchanged = 50) Sources: ISM, Markit Economics G3 Manufacturing PMI US Euro area Japan Dec 18 Index sa, 3mma ( = ) 70 Asian Export Performance Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil and gas. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand KR MY PH TH CN INDO TW SG Nov = 21.3 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 21.0 Bn USD Agriculture Fishery %YoY Manufacturing Agro-manufacturing Electronics Electrical Appliances Automotive Machinery & Equipment Petroleum Related Share Export Growth Dec = 19.5 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 19.1 Bn USD P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Total (BOP Basis) Ex. Gold - Ex. Gold & - Petroleum Related %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording passing through Customs while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between R and NR. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data Dec (%MoM) Nov = 20.7 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 20.0 Bn USD %YoY Consumer Raw material & Intermediate o/w Fuel o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel Capital Others Total (BOP Basis) Share Ex. Gold - Import Growth P P Dec = 17.1 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 16.7 Bn USD H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Dec (%MoM) %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value is recorded by BOP basis. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data 7

10 Economic and Monetary conditions, December Financial Account Million USD P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec E 1. Assets TDI - Equity Thai portfolio investment - Equity sec. investment - Debt sec. investment Loans Other investments - Trade credits 2. Liabilities FDI - Equity Foreign portfolio investment - Equity sec. investment - Debt sec. investment Loans Other investments - Trade credits Total financial flows (1+2) Source : Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E= Estimated data Balance of Payments Billion USD P P P Trade balance Exports (f.o.b.) %YoY Imports (f.o.b.) %YoY Net services, income & transfers Current account Capital and financial account Government Central bank ODCs Others Net error & omissions Overall balance International reserves Net forward position H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec E Source : Bank of Thailand E= Estimated data P = Preliminary data %YoY (Share in ) China (27.6%) Malaysia (9.8%) Asia ex. China & Malaysia (29.6%) Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin Russia (3.8%) Europe ex. Russia (14.5%) Others (14.7%) Total (million persons) 9.4 (35.6) 7.5 (38.3) 12.2 (19.5) 3.1 (18.8) Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec P 4.3 (3.2) 7.7 (3.8) %MoM sa Index sa ( = ) Inbound Tourists Index Total China (share 28%) Malaysia (share 10%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 30%) Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%) 0 Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand 8

11 -17 Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec Mar-17 May Sep-17 Nov Mar-18 May Sep-18 Nov Monetary and financial conditions Total corporate financing increased from the previous month from all funding channels, in line with the growth in private investment. New credit extended to both businesses and households expanded from the previous month. As at end of month, both the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar and the NEER appreciated from the previous month. Commercial Bank Interest Rates* % p.a. Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/ month deposit rate Average of 5 largest Thai banks** Average of other Thai banks Average of foreign branches and subsidiary MLR Average of 5 largest Thai banks Average of other Thai banks Average of foreign branches and subsidiary MRR Average of 5 largest Thai banks Average of other Thai banks Average of foreign branches and subsidiary End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya Source: Bank of Thailand Government Bond Yields 1D BRP 1M 2Y 5Y 10Y Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA As of Billion baht Change in Total Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA New Private Credit Extended by Other Depository Corporations Billion baht % Note: Business credits and debt: change in outstanding Equity: new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET MoM, SA Household % MoM change, SA (RHS) Business Note: Data for other depository corporations (ODCs) private credit and the ODCs private credit extended to households have been revised since uary due to reflect the improvement in the data processing system. Source: Bank of Thailand

12 30-Dec Feb-17 8-Mar Mar Apr May-17 7-Jun Jun Aug-17 4-Sep Sep Oct-17 9-Nov Nov Dec Feb Feb Mar Apr-18 9-May May Jun Aug Aug Sep-18 9-Oct-18 1-Nov Nov Dec Dec Feb Mar May Jun Aug Sep Nov Dec-17 7-Feb Mar-18 9-May Jun-18 6-Aug Sep-18 1-Nov Dec-18 Index (2012 = ) 122 Appreciation NEER USDTHB (RHS) Exchange Rates USDTHB = NEER25 = Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand USDTHB (reverse) % 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% -0.5% -1.5% Changes in Trading Partners Currencies per USD end of Dec 18 compared to end of Nov compared to end of Dec % -0.9% 3.2% -0.4% -0.3% -0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% -0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% -1.2% Note: End-period data, + = Appreciation against USD Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand 0.0% -0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% IDR GBP PHP INR SGD TWD KRW VND EUR MYR THB CNY JPY 2.8% 0.6% Regional Exchange Rate Volatility % p.a. 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP As of Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand 10

13 2.5 Financial stability Headline inflation decelerated due mainly to decreased retail petroleum prices. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate slightly increased from last month. The external stability remained strong and resilient to withstand volatility in the global financial markets. %YoY Contribution to Headline Inflation Fresh Food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core Inflation (72.56%) ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Dec 18 Headline Inflation 0.36% -3 Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand %YoY Contribution to Core Inflation Rent (19.62%) Food and Beverage ex. Alcohol (28.17%) Other Goods and Services (52.21%) ( ) Share in Core Inflation Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand Dec 18 Core Inflation 0.68% % Dec 18 Unemployment rate 0.9 % Unemployment rate (sa) 1.1 % Unemployment Rate Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Data from onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing Census Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO Index sa, 3mma ( =) Employment Index Total Agriculture (31%) Manufacturing (17%) Construction (6%) Trade (17%) Service (29%) Note: Data from onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing Census. ( ) denotes share in total employment Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT External Debt Outstanding Billion USD P P P Dec18- Nov18 Change H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec E Total 1. General government Central Bank* Other Depository Corporations (ODC) Other Sectors Other Financial Corporations (OFC) Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%) Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data Solvency Indicators External Stability Indicators Criteria P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec E Current Account / GDP (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. Debt / GDP (%) < / n.a. n.a. n.a. Debt / XGS 1/ (%) < / Debt Service Ratio (%) n.a n.a. 6.9 n.a. Liquidity Indicators Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time Gross Reserves / Imports 2/ > 3 times ST Debt / Total Debt (%) Note: XGS Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average) Severely indebted countries Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data 11

14 3. Link to related statistics and contents Agricultural sector Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices Agricultural production: Agricultural products More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics Manufacturing sector Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI) Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate More information: Office of Industrial Economics Real estate sector Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2) More information: Real Estate Information Center Public finance Central government revenue: Government revenue Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011) Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009) More information: Fiscal Policy Office Labor market Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4) Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012) Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2) More information: National Statistical Office 12

15 Inflation Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI) More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey 13

16 Contact Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team Private consumption Macroeconomics Team Private investment Macroeconomics Team Public finance Public Finance Team The global economy International Economics Division External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division Inflation Macro Surveillance Team Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team External stability Balance of Payment Division