Key developments and outlook

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2 Key developments and outlook Economic growth projection is revised up from a stronger recovery of exports. Meanwhile, government spending remains an important growth driver. Private spending gradually picks up. Headline inflation, though revised down slightly, is projected to gradually rise and move toward the midpoint of the inflation target. Risks to economic forecast tilt more downward due to external factors. Risks to inflation forecast tilt downward in line with macro risks and also with oil prices that could be lower than expected. %YoY 216* GDP growth (3.2) - Headline inflation (1.5) - Core inflation (.8) - * Outturn, ( ) Monetary Policy Report, December 216 Monetary policy should remain accommodative until the economy achieves a broader and firmer growth that would facilitate the return of inflation to the target. 2/22

3 G3 economies continue to recover, with domestic spending the main growth driver. Asian economies shows moderate recovery, driven by exports, especially electronics which benefit from the uptrend of the Internet of Things (IoTs). Risks to trading partners economy Risks tilt downward. Uncertainty of US trade policy is the main risk. China s financial stability concerns, political developments in Europe, and problems faced by the European banking sector remain largely unchanged. Monetary policy Most central banks continue their accommodative monetary policy, but policy accommodation is expected to phase down due to improvements in global economic and inflation outlook. The U.S. federal funds rate is projected to rise faster than previously expected, especially in the first half of 217. Trading partners growth forecast is revised up but risks remain tilted downward Merchandise export value of Asian countries Index, 3mma sa (Jan 13 = 1) Jan 214 Jul Jan 215 Electronics (36.3) Jul Others (63.7) Jan 216 Note: Asia includes China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. ( ) indicates share of total exports in 216. Source: CEIC, calculated by BOT Jul Jan 17 Box: Asia s exports and growth momentum from the electronics technology life-cycle and the rise of the internet of things Jan 217 3/22

4 Oil prices are lower than expected, while risks skew downward In the short term oil prices decline given higher-than-expected supply of US shale oil and oil inventory. In the longer term prices are expected to gradually increase given higher demand due to global economic recovery. Risks to oil price projection Risks skew downward because of the implementation risk regarding oil producers ability to adhere to the agreed production cut. USD/Barrel 12 7 Dubai oil price assumption Dec 16 Mar 17 High (+.75 S.D) Low (-1. S.D) USD/Barrel 216* As of Mar As of Dec 16 (53.5) - * Outturn, ( ) Monetary Policy Report, December 216 Forecast period 4/22

5 Recovery in exports of goods is supported by improving global economic growth higher electronics demand, supported by the uptrend of the Internet of Things (IoTs) relocation in production base of some industries, e.g. solar cells and tires However, exports of goods still face headwinds from Structural global trade slowdown, Thailand s manufacturing structural issues, US trade policy uncertainty Merchandise exports show stronger recovery in several categories Thailand s merchandise export volume Index, 3mma sa (Jan 13 = 1) Electrical appliances (5.8) Automotive parts (6.3) Motorcycle (.6) Petroleum related products (1.6) Electronics excl. HDD (8.3) Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Note: ( ) indicates share of total exports in 216 Source: Thai Customs Department, calculated by BOT Jan 216 Jul Merchandise export value projection Feb 17 Jan 217 %YoY 216* As of Mar As of Dec 16 (.) - * Outturn, ( ) Monetary Policy Report, December 216 5/22

6 Tourism recovered quickly in early 217 from government measures to tackle illegal tour operators. Tourism also gains traction from the government s reduction or exemption of visa fees and from China s restriction on sales of tour package to South Korea the latter in effect brings about some Chinese tourists to Thailand. Exports of services are expected to continue growing due to Thailand s standing as a popular tourist destination with additional support from government s tourism promotion campaign, especially tourists from CLMV countries, and measures to increase tourists spending per trip. Box: Thailand s tourism outlook Exports of services quickly recover and are expected to continue gain traction %YoY Avg Projection of growth of number of tourists by destination Avg. Avg World Asia and the Pacific Thailand Sources: UNWTO (Released January 217), Bank of Thailand Projection of number of foreign tourists to Thailand Millions 216* As of Mar As of Dec 16 (34.1) - * Outturn, ( ) Monetary Policy Report, December 216 6/22

7 Private consumption is projected to grow moderately In the short term, private consumption has not benefited from the firmer recovery in merchandise exports, as improvements in exports are mostly concentrated in the capital-intensive sectors. Over the longer horizon, private consumption is expected to grow on the back of (1) improving services and farm incomes (2) higher consumer confidence (3) loan repayments related to First-time Car Buyer Scheme that have been progressively completed Non-farm income % YoY Source: National Statistical Office 7/22

8 There are signs of recovery in some sectors such as electronics and alternative energy businesses. Going forward, private investment is expected to benefit from improvements in exports, although the gain may be initially limited due to producers excess capacity. Additional supporting factors come from government policies such as public-private partnership (PPP) and the ongoing development of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). Private investment is expected to pick up Month Expected Business Sentiment Index Diffusion Index (unchanged = 5) Jan 214 Jul Jan 215 Non export-oriented manufacturer Export-oriented manufacturer Jul Jan 216 Jul Private consumption, private investment, and merchandise export volume Index, 4qma sa (Q1/8 = 1) 14 Private consumption Private investment Jan Source: NESDB, calculated by BOT Feb 17 Q4/16 8/22

9 Government spending continues to be a driving force The government continues to run budget deficit in fiscal year 218 and is likely to spend more than previously expected thanks to (1) Increasingly definite investment plans under the Pracharat project (2) faster disbursement for telecommunications infrastructure upgrade project SOE spending is delayed in some railway project of State Railway of Thailand (SRT). Risks to government spending tilt to downside from public investment projects that could be delayed. Public spending projection at current prices (calendar year) Billion Baht 216* Government consumption 2,454 2,57 2,687 (2,547) - Public investment 936 1,82 1,22 (1,89) - * Outturn, ( ) Monetary Policy Report, December 216 9/22

10 Economic forecast is revised up due largely to recovery in exports (%YoY) 216* Dec 16 Mar 17 Mar 17 GDP growth Private consumption Private investment Government consumption Public investment Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services * Outturn 1/22

11 Uncertainty and downside risks increase due to external factors %YoY GDP growth forecast Note: Fan chart covers 9% of the probability distribution Downside risks US trade policy uncertainty Trading partners growth that could be lower than expected Public investment that could be delayed Upside risks US fiscal policies (tax reform and infrastructure investment) that could lead to higher growth in the US Government s stimulus measures that could come out more than expected 11/22

12 Headline and core inflation forecasts are revised down slightly due to lower inflation outturns and oil prices Demand-side inflationary pressures are still low. Cost-push inflationary pressures increase only slowly due to the gradual increase in oil prices and limited pass-through to consumer prices. Going forward, inflation is projected to gradually increase and move toward the midpoint of the inflation target in line with the ongoing economic recovery % YoY Contribution to headline inflation Raw food price (15.69%) Energy price (11.75%) Core inflation (72.56%) Headline inflation Inflation projections Inflation target 2.5 ± * Headline inflation (1.5) - Core inflation (.8) - * Outturn, ( ) Monetary Policy Report, December /22

13 Headline inflation forecast Risks to inflation forecasts skew more downward, in line with risks to economic growth and oil prices that could be lower than expected Core inflation forecast %YoY 8 8 %YoY Headline inflation target ( ) Note: Fan chart covers 9% of the probability distribution Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 216 Q1 217 Q /22

14 Monetary policy remains conductive to the economic recovery. The MPC voted unanimously to maintain the policy rate at 1.5% at Feb 8 and Mar 29 meetings. Economic condition Inflation Financial condition Financial stability Thai economic outlook improved and the economy was expected to expand at a faster pace than previously assessed due to the stronger export growth and the quick tourism recovery. However, positive spillovers to employment and income were still limited. There remained significant risks to the Thai economy particularly from the external front. Headline inflation returned to the lower bound of the target and was expected to gradually rise. However, demand-pull inflationary pressures remained subdued. Financial conditions remained accommodative. Overall financing costs, which edged up in tandem with the bond yields, did not significantly affect corporate financing. Financial stability remained sound but there were some pockets of risks to be monitored, such as deterioration in debt serviceability of SMEs and households and the search-for-yield behavior. The MPC views that monetary policy should remain accommodative and stands ready to utilize available policy tools to ensure that monetary conditions are conductive to continued economic growth, while ensuring financial stability. 14/22

15 Monetary policy transmission has been more than previously assessed. According to movements in new loan rate (NLR), monetary policy transmission is found to be more than previously assessed by looking at movements in minimum lending rate (MLR) or effective lending rate (ELR). Policy Rate, MLR, ELR, and NLR % Policy Rate Effective Lending Rate (ELR) Minimum Lending Rate (MLR) New Loan Rate (NLR) MLR ELR NLR Policy Rate Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Bank of Thailand Box: Monetary policy transmission through the New Loan Rate 15/22

16 The recent federal funds rate hike has not significantly affected financing costs of Thai corporates. Government bond yields were slightly increased particularly long-term yields (over 5 years). The impact on the private sector was limited since most businesses raise funds through short-to-medium term bonds (1-3 years) Government bond yields rose prior to Fed s rate hike. However, there was a correction subsequently because investors expected the pace of rate hikes to be gradual. 3-Oct Oct Oct-16 1-Nov Nov-16 7-Dec Dec-16 5-Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb-17 1-Mar-17 As of 22 Mar 17 5Y 1D BRP 1M 2Y 1Y Market expectation has realigned with the dot plot. Consequently, the likelihood of sharp market volatilities and capital reversals is expected to decrease. Sources: IIF, Bloomberg 16/22

17 In the period ahead, Fed s rate hikes could somewhat affect capital flows and exchange rates but would not cause a major concern. Fed s policy normalization might induce capital outflows from Thailand and the depreciation of the baht to some extent, but this would not be a major concern because of Thailand s external stability % 1-1 Markets expected the baht to depreciate against US dollar but with a smaller magnitude than previously anticipated and relatively less than regional currencies. Expected change of currencies over 217 (median of polled forecasters) Thailand s external factors were strong compared with regional economies. As of Q4 216 TH CN IN ID MY PH CA/GDP (%) Reserve/Short-term Debt (times) Short-term External Debt/Total External Debt (%) External Debt/GDP (%) Source: Reuters, BOT, BOT calculation -2-3 PHP CNY IDR MYR THB INR KRW TWD As of 8 Feb 17 As of 23 Mar 17 Source: Bloomberg 17/22

18 Growth of household debt has declined but debt repayment ability of households and businesses, especially SMEs, still need to be monitored. % of GDP 1 5 Household Debts 1/ Business Personal consumption Others Growth of household debt (RHS) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q % YoY Non-Performing Loan (NPL) %NPL Total loan %NPL Corporate loan %NPL SME loan %NPL Consumer loan Q Notes: 1/ Loans given to household by financial institutions Source: Bank of Thailand 18/22

19 Overall financial stability remained sound. Need to monitor search for yield. Increases in investments in money market funds and in daily fixed income funds in previous periods have stabilized Increases in overseas investment through foreign investment funds (FIFs) are mostly in deposits in the investment-grade countries. Money Market Fund and Daily Fixed Income Fund Million million Baht Index (Dec 15 = 1) Source: SEC Money Market Fund Daily Fixed Income Fund Jun-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Box: Developments of unrated bonds markets and implications to financial stability Dec-15 Net Asset Value (NAV) of mutual funds Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Money Market Fund Foreign Investment Fund Equity Fund Fixed Income Fund Property Fund 1 Infrastructure Fund and REITS Others Total Source: Association of Investment Management Companies Calculated by BOT staff. 19/22

20 Key issues monitored by the MPC Risks to global economic recovery Heightened risks US economic and trade policies Unchanged risks China s financial instability Political developments and problems of the banking sector in Europe Financial stability risks Deterioration in SME debt repayment ability Yield searching behavior in the low-for-long interest rate environment that might lead to underpricing of risks Volatilities in financial markets from external factors Capital flows and exchange rates could be more volatile going forward given uncertainties in external factors. Appropriate foreign exchange risk management by the private sector is critical. 2/22

21 Forecast summary as of March * GDP growth (3.2) - Headline inflation (1.5) - Core inflation (.8) - * Outturn ( ) Monetary Policy Report, December /22

22 Website /MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/Pages/default.aspx 22/22

23 Attachment * Outturn Forecasts in the Monetary Policy Report, March 217 (%YoY) 216* Dec 16 Mar 17 Mar 17 GDP growth Private consumption Private investment Government consumption Public investment Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Current account balance (billion USD) Value of merchandise exports Value of merchandise imports /22

24 Attachment Forecast assumptions 216* Dec 16 Mar 17 Mar 17 Dubai oil price (USD per barrel) Non-fuel commodity prices (%YoY) Farm income (%YoY) Public expenditure (calendar year) Government consumption (billion Baht)** 2,454 2,547 2,57 2,687 Public investment (billion Baht)** 936 1,89 1,82 1,22 Fed funds rate (% year end) Trading partners GDP growth (%YoY) Regional currencies per USD (excl. RMB)*** Note: * Outturn ** Includes spending on the Water Management and Infrastructure Investment plans *** Higher value indicates currency depreciation against the USD 24/22

25 Attachment Notes: Assumption on trading partners GDP growths (%YoY) Weight*** (%) 216* Dec 16 Mar 17 Mar 17 United States Euro Japan China Asia** รวม * Outturn ** Weighted by shares of Thailand s major trading partners in 214 (7 Asian countries including Singapore (6.5%), Hong Kong (7.9%), Malaysia (8.%), Taiwan (2.5%), Indonesia (5.9%), South Korea (2.8%), and Philippines (3.7%)) *** Weighted by shares of Thailand s major trading partners in 214 (13 countries). The table excludes other countries with small trade shares. 25/22

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