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1 2557 &กก'(ก)ก!ก*-$$ก *$"",CFA.!"ก ก$%" 1

2 ก " ก # $%#&' ก ##"$ก #" #(&กก $%#&' " + $*#+, -.$/$ " ก # ก # 0 #ก1 ก 23 #/56 ก #" -.ก #/0 ก # ก #$# $*#+, ก #",0 ก $0 #/0 ก 23 $0# 0,7ก80 $ #*-ก #$ก ก #7ก

3 2557 $+,0 ก #$,ก $ กก #.9 #ก # QE $%#&' H14 -?9ก #@$+,0 ก # # /","##&" #", 23 Consensus 0 US Treasury bond yield Q#9" % # ก"3$%#&' # Q-#9"W 1 -?9# ก"3-.# #", 23 ก+ 9X8 9,72Q.. Y %-#9,Z 1ก $%#&' # 9 56 Outperform %ก-% 7 ก #(&ก #9,Z Q-.X`a $ #(&ก #9ก-%#.9 1ก "# Y #$Y (BRIC) $ %. 0 % gก ก %- 1% ก $ Outperform '*" ASEAN 7 ก 'jk%7#(&ก/qกก"ก #$ก $ 'jk-#(&ก/qกก"ก # "#+0-#9Y2##

4 # /","##&" Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 US Bond Yield 10 Year Thailand Bond Yield 5 Year

5 # ก"39X Jun-06 Feb-07 Dec-07 Aug-08 May-09 Mar-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 B ot polic y rate Headline inflation

6 200, , ,000 50, , ,000 1% -ก- ก # M illion Baht Nov-13 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 THB/US D. 1% -# $ #%3#99$3 Stocks (mn bt) Bonds >1Yr Bonds <1Yr USDTHB (RHS)

7 "5.$9, India Indonesia Thailand Hong Kong Malaysia % #9ก #ก"5., 7 ก0 l0 Philippines 1.51 Korea 1.70 China 4.34 Taiwan Singapore Note: Current account as of 2Q13, except 3Q13 for Korea and Thailand; GDP 4Q trailing sum as of 2Q13, except 3Q13 for China and Indonesia. Source: CEIC and Maybank Kim End analysis.

8 $W #"%3 #9 1 $$$W #"%3#99$3Q 2.5 *7 l# ก 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, , , , Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 Short-term external debt (mn US$) International reserves Total external debt Internation reserves/short-term debt (%; RHS)

9 %lก ##" $. Y2 #0 9mก #1% ก"1,Z ก 23 ก 2 %/,73& 7 ก#(&ก #9,Z #X`a $+,0 7 ก ก #.9 #ก # QE $%#&'

10 1% -ก-..1.%7

11 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000-20,000 +,# %1 % 1 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 1, Nov-12 Q1/2003 Q1/2004 Q1/2005 Q1/2006 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 SET Index Q1/2007 Q1/2008 Q1/2009 Q1/2010 Q1/2011 Q1/2012 Q1/2013 Q1/2014 SET Index- RHS Foreign Net Buy/Sell % 10 0 QE

12 8% (1#/) 1,800 SET Index "ก"กW 1#$ กW ( ) 6% ( ) 12% 140 Index 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, กW 8% 17% กW -5% 6% F EPS - SET-LHS EPS

13 % ก 3/56 Upside!"ก #$%ก ก ก QE ก ก..-..!"ก# $%& ' ก $กก(% ( , , & ) MBKET $ :ก ก QE $ ;<=>!"!"$ : ก$?#@<($$ ก $ ABCก#=& ก >#&$:" $%D 2556 : E?$@กF#:GGA $ "ก H<&"?F.#กI" 2 " "F=$!'F=กGI"&BJ& "$ก' &"ก?#=K=ก$L#G $H<$%& $=@ C-IM!% #A@###%! ก F@"!" &$!M%!"&HF! % "&ก = ก! " & %"!$

14 #(&กกกก ##"$ก #" Difference from July F 2014F World GDP US EURO JAPAN CHINA INDIA BRAZIL RUSSIA THAILAND N.A N.A 14 Source : IMF

15 #(&ก10.9 "73 MBKET 0 GDP 2556 ก $ 1 3.5% ก 4% 7 ก ก #$กW ก 0 9 ก #7W -%ก #.

16 ก #"#+0 ก #+ 0ก. X PCI (% yoy) PII Headline inflation (RHS) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep Recovery from floods crisis The first-car policy Source: BoT, Bloomberg and Maybank Kim Eng analysis. 16

17 ก #$ก.9 $/-% "5.$9, Export growth Current account (mn US$; RHS) 50 6, , , Feb-05 Nov-05 Aug-06 May-07 Feb-08 Nov-08 Aug-09 May-10 Feb-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 May-13-2, , , Source: Bloomberg and Maybank Kim Eng analysis. 17

18 /ก #W ".*Qก#"7

19 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000. Million US$ Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 K ORE A P hillipines Indones ia THA ILA ND

20 %1W / 1ก +Q+ 0

21 กvก # >&> ;( N>ก$ 1400 = &!ก%>ก$ &>;(?&กก'ก>% P! ( =?#(>!ก (+++)!"% "F:R=กABCก#=: ก ST$ % "&ก ก? U: #($# 'ก#กR & #!"% "F:R=กก :"?(C % "&ก - F!ก" $ ก" (>!กก (---)!"ก$กFกF#:GA % "&ก " ก &!#?R 21

22 /"# ก$ %ก## ก.3$lก#ก$v 9 w#0 23

23 0 ก #?v/ก #W กw#0 9, X`a.

24 ASEAN Stock Market Valuations Index EPS Growth(%) PER Performance(%) 13F 14F 13F 14F Net Chg 1D WTD MTD YTD PCOMP Index % 7.61% JCI Index % 16.55% KLCI Index % 9.72% SET Index % 16.33% ASEAN 4 SHCOMP Index % 12.91% SENSEX Index % 19.43% HSI Index % 7.73% FSSTI Index % 9.11% TWSE Index % 13.65% KOSPI Index % 14.13% MXAPJ Index % 12.72% NKY Index % 12.89% INDU Index % 8.20% *Source: Bloomberg consensus, data as of 7 Nov 2013

25 Mega Trend ก # = CLMV / AEC ก $ 1- CLMV %#, ก#$W 05 (, # # ) & ก #/$W 05 1 $ก$0 9"#ก # 1ก+,$Q Springboard $W %#"ก #$ก$0 ก$,( ก #0 CLMV 1#"Q

26 Mega Trend ก # = CLMV / AEC ก กกก

27 Mega Trend ก # = CLMV / AEC ก ก

28 Mega Trend ก # = CLMV / AEC ก ก!"#$

29 Mega Trend ก # = CLMV / AEC ก%ก&'

30 Mega Trend ก # = CLMV / AEC () ก)$*% ก#$

31 Mega Trend ก # = CLMV / AEC CLMV + (m 0% AEC

32 # 0 $0 +0+?~v # 0 3W # 0 3W "#"#? $100 +/- " #v# *2 #(&กก9 1 ก -".# 0 3W "#" 231*2 $110 " #v# 7 ก0 2 0#-9กก ก #X`a #(&กก W -%0 ก #-.3W ", 23 1#กl # 0 3W "0 90#"#? $ ก0กW ก #/$ก 0W # 0 0W -#99$3*Qกก ก0 กกก"ก #.9 #ก # QE #*2 ก ##(&กก#X`aW -%0 ก #0W,78ก0 $ (Safe Heaven) % ก# ก"3, 239m",ก"# 0 0W 0 ก#"ก #071%-#99 Q %#5$%#&'Yv

33 # 0 $0 +0+?~v Rubber prices outlook As we enter the inventory restocking season for natural rubber (NR), we anticipate the rubber price to move higher especially that inventory in the warehouses in Qingdao, China is down about 30% from the April level standing at 220K tons as of 15th October. This would be positive on the NR prices. In addition, the Butadiene price has also risen, creating a positive knock on effect on the NR prices. Over the longer term, however, price outlook for NR remains lacklustre as excess supply persists. While the excess supply is not very high, it could still pressure NR prices because of the anaemic demand outlook. Why the D/S imbalance cannot seem to clear can be traced to the active intervention of the governments of the major rubber producing countries, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and even Vietnam. For Thailand the last round of raw rubber price support scheme cost the government nearly THB22bn. The raw rubber purchased from the farmers are processed for a fee by private companies, STA included, and there is now nearly 200K tons in inventory of both RSS and TSR in the government warehouses. Currently the rubber farmers in the southern region of Thailand are agitating for another round of subsidies by way of price support at THB100/kg for the raw rubber. If the lobby group wins, market clearing mechanism for rubber will not work hence chronic excess supply conditions amidst soft demand conditions.

34 # 0 $0 +0+?~v RSS Bale 3 in Thai Rubber Auction Market Demand & Supply

35 Q & A Thank you 35