Thailand. Earnings Results ( ): ( ก 22.00) (02)

Transcription

1 Thailand Earnings Results : T-BUY ( ก ). ก ก (NOK) CGR Scoring Rating - ( ): ( ): ( ก 22.00) (02) ( ) Description : ก ก ก กก ก ก (Low cost carriers - LCC) Ticker : NOK ก () 625 ( ) 10,688 (US$ m) mth Avg Daily Turnover ( ) SET INDEX 1, Free float (%) N.A. Major Shareholders : %.ก STATE STREET BANK EUROPE LIMITED 6.76 Key Indicators ROE annualised (%) 13.9 Net cash (THB m): 2,679 NTA/shr (THB): 7.6 Interest cover (x): 19.8 ก กก ก ก 1Q57 : ก NOK ก 41 72% QoQ 90% YoY ก 64% ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก. ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก cabin factor NOK 1,630-12% QoQ YoY ก cabin factor 79.9% ก ก 87.6% ก 3% QoQ 10% YoY ก ก 11.2% 4Q % 1Q56 6.0% ก NOK ก กก 50% ก ก ก 2Q57 : ( AOT).. 8% MoM.. ก ก ก ก -ก ก QoQ YoY ก ก ก ก 260 ก : กก 1Q57 4% ก ก ก ก กก ก ก 3 ก ก NokScoot ก 43 กก ก 2557 กก 36% 657 ก PER14F ก / upside 5% dividend yield 3% ก ก ก ก ก ก ก : ก, ก ก Historical Chart May-13 Jul-13 Performance Sep-13 Nov-13 NOK Jan-14 SET Mar-14 May week High/Low THB 29.75/THB mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yrs YTD Absolute (%) #N/A Relative (%) #N/A NOK Summary Earnings Table FYE: Dec 31 (THB m) F 2015F Revenue 6,039 8,218 11,180 12,653 16,755 EBITDA , ,607 Recurring Net Profit , ,135 Net profit , ,135 EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) (66.7) (44.1) 72.7 DPS (Bt) PER EV/EBITDA (x) Div Yield (%) P/BV(x) Net Gearing (%) cash cash cash cash cash ROE (%) ROA (%) Cons. Net Profit (THB m) ,066 1,007 1,397 Source: Company reports and MBKET. SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

2 Quarterly income statement (Btmn) 1Q14 4Q13 QoQ 1Q13 YoY Revenues 3,096 3, % 2, % ขยายต วจากก าล งการผล ตเพ ม 29% YoY COGS 2,910 2, % 2, % Gross profits (45.2%) 564 (67.0%) Gross profit margin % 6.0% 11.2% -46.1% 20.1% (70.0%) Cabin factor หดแรง, บาทอ อน, Yield หด SG&A (27.3%) % Operating profit (89.6%) 417 (97.5%) Operating margin (%) 0.3% 3.2% % - EBITDA (90.8%) 430 (97.6%) EBITDA margin (%) 0.7% 3.6% % - Interest expense - - n.m. - n.m. Normalised earning (71.9%) 416 (90.2%) Extra ordinary gain (loss) - Forex gain (loss) - - n.m. - n.m. - Reverse/ provision/ impairment - - n.m. - n.m. Net profit (71.9%) 416 (90.2%) EPS (Bt) before extra item (74.5%) 0.83 (92.1%) EPS (Bt) (74.5%) 0.83 (92.1%) Source : Company reports and MBKET Key data 1Q14 4Q13 QoQ 1Q13 YoY Available Seat Kilo (ASK mn) 1,306 1, % 1, % Revenue Passenger Kilo (RPK mn) 1, % % Cabin factor (%) 79.9% 78.6% % - Avg. fare (Bt/ passenger) 1,630 1,843 (11.6%) 1,854 (12.1%) Pax. yield (Bt/ pax km.) * (9.3%) 2.99 (7.6%) Passenger carried ('000) % % Jet fuel oil price (USD/ bbl) (1.7%) (5.1%) Source: Company reports and MBKET, * including fuel surcharged Figure 1 : Cabin factor & Avg. fare trend Figure 2 : Core profit & GPM trend Cabin factor 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 88% 86% 87% 83% 84% 85% 84% 79% 80% 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Bt/ pax Bt mn Core profit GPM political unrest started % 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Source: company report Source: company report & MBKET Figure 3 : Pre & Post assumption F 2015F Pre Post % Chg Pre Post % Chg Passengers (mn) % % Cabin factor (%) 84.2% 84.0% 80.2% 80.2% 80.2% 81.8% MASK 2,916 4,247 5,328 5, % 6,660 6, % MRPK 2,456 3,567 4,274 4, % 5,342 5, % Avg. Fare (Bt/ pax) 1,876 1,788 1,661 1, % 1,694 1, % Passenger yield % % Avg. Jet fuel price (USD/ bbl) % % F/X % CASK % % Gross profit margin 12.7% 15.2% 13.7% 11.4% 13.0% 13.1% Nok Scoot impact 0 (43) 0 (185) Norm profit 505 1,066 1, % 1,293 1, % Target price (Bt/ mn) % source : MBKET ก 8

3 INCOME STATEMENT (THB mn) BALANCE SHEET (THB mn) FY December F 2015F FY December F 2015F Revenue 8,218 11,180 12,653 16,755 Fixed Assets ,159 3,015 EBITDA 528 1, ,607 Other LT Assets ,053 1,369 Depreciation & Amortisation Cash/ST Investments 1,657 5,365 3,975 4,071 Operating Profit (EBIT) ,334 Other Current Assets Interest (Exp)/Inc - - (32) (76) Total Assets 2,252 6,272 7,858 9,152 Associates * - - (43) (185) One-offs ST Debt Pre-Tax Profit 520 1, ,361 Other Current Liabilities 1,271 1,581 1,870 2,027 Tax (15) (33) (22) (41) LT Debt - - 1,096 1,544 Minority Interest Other LT Liabilities Net Profit 505 1, ,135 Minority Interest Recurring Net Profit 505 1, ,135 Shareholders' Equity 888 4,543 4,744 5,431 Total Liabilities-Capital 2,252 6,272 7,858 9,152 Revenue Growth % EBITDA Growth (%) (17.3) 91.5 Share Capital (m) EBIT Growth (%) (33.5) Gross Debt/(Cash) - - 1,296 1,744 Net Profit Growth (%) (38.4) 72.7 Net Debt/(Cash) (1,657) (5,365) (2,679) (2,327) Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) (38.4) 72.7 Working Capital , , ,741.6 Tax Rate % BVPS CASH FLOW (Btmn) RATES & RATIOS FY December F 2015F FY December F 2015F Profit before taxation 520 1, ,361 Gross Margin % Depreciation EBITDA Margin % Net interest receipts/(payments) - - (32) (76) Op. Profit Margin % Working capital change (100) (28) Net Profit Margin % Cash tax paid (15) (33) (22) (41) ROE % Others (incl'd exceptional items) ROA % Cash flow from operations 844 1,138 1,931 2,041 Net Margin Ex. El % Capex (50) (83) (2,210) (1,130) Dividend Cover (x) Disposal/(purchase) Interest Cover (x) n.m. n.m Others (330) (3,329) (954) (319) Asset Turnover (x) Cash flow from investing (380) (3,411) (3,162) (1,446) Asset/Debt (x) Debt raised/(repaid) - - 1, Debtors Turn (days) Equity raised/(repaid) - 3, Creditors Turn (days) Dividends (paid) (414) (588) (457) (448) Inventory Turn (days) Interest payments - - (32) (76) Net Gearing % n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. Others - (83) Debt/ EBITDA (x) Cash flow from financing (414) 2, Debt/ Market Cap (x) Change in cash (390) 596 Source: Company reports and MBKET, * assume Nok Scoot to be recorded as associate company ก 8

4 APPENDIX I:TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก กกก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก Maybank Investment Bank Berhad ) ก Maybank Kim Eng ) ก Maybank Kim Eng Maybank Kim Eng,ก ก, ก / ก ) ก Representatives ) ก ก กก, ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กกก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng ก ก ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng,ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก กMaybank Kim Eng ก ก ก ก ก ก, / ก Maybank Kim Eng กก ก ก กก Maybank Kim Eng ก ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng ก Maybank Kim Eng ก กก ก 3 ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng Research ก ( Maybank KERPL ) ก ก ก Maybank KERPL ก กก ก ก, ก ก ( ก Section 4A ก Singapore Securities and Futures) Maybank KERPL ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก (IOD) ก ก ก ก ก (Corporate Governance) ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก IOD ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ( ) ก ( ) ก ก ก ก 8

5 ก MKE ( US ) ก ( Rule 15a-6 ก Securities Exchange Act of 1934) Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc ( Maybank KESUSA ) Broker-Dealer ( ก Section 15 Securities Exchange Act of 1934) ก Maybank KESUSA ก MKE ก ก ก ก Maybank KESUSA ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) ก ( Maybank KESL ) ก ก ก The Financial Services Authority Informational Purposes ก ก ก ก ก (Retail Client) The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 ก ก ก 3 ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กกก กก ก ก ก ก, ก DISCLOSURES Legal Entities Disclosures : ก Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) ก ก Bursa Malaysia Berhad Capital Market and Services ก The Securities Commission : ก Maybank KERPL ( N) ก ก ก Monetary Authority of Singapore : PT Kim Eng Securities ( PTKES ) ( KEP-251/PM/1992) ก Indonesia Stock Exchange ก ก ก BAPEPAM LK : MBKET ( ) ก The Stock Exchange of Thailand ก ก ก ก ก ก. : MATRKES ( ) ก The Philippines Stock Exchange ก ก ก The Securities and Exchange Commission : Kim Eng Vietnam Securities ก ( KEVS ) ( 71/UBCK-GP) The State Securities Commission of Vietnam ก : KESHK (Central Entity No: AAD284) ก ก The Securities and Futures Commission : Kim Eng Securities India Private ก ( KESI ) The National Stock Exchange of India Limited ( : INF/INB ) Bombay Stock Exchange ( INF/INB ) ก ก ก Securities and Exchange Board of India KESI ก SEBI 1 Merchant Broker ( INM ) : Maybank KESUSA ก ก ก ก FINRA Broker ID ก : Maybank KESL ( ) ก ก ก ก The Financial Services Authority Disclosure of Interest : MKE ก กก ก ก กก market maker ก ก กก ก ก ก, ก ก กก ก : , Maybank KERPL กก ก ก ก ก : MBKET ก ก ก ก Derivatives Warrants ก ก ก ก MBKET ก ก ก / ก ก / ก ก ก ก ก ก : KESHK ก กก ก ก Paragraph 16.5 (a) Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licenses ก ก ก The Securities and Futures Commission ก 8

6 , KESHK ก ก ก ก 3 MKE ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก 12 ก ก ก ก ก ก ก OTHERS Analyst Certification of Independence ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก Structure Securities ก ก ก ก ( ก Spot / ก ), Time to Maturity, / ก ก ก ก ก ก กกก ก ก,, ก ก ก ก MKE Definition of Ratings (For MayBank Kim Eng Thailand) Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system: BUY TRADING BUY/TAKE PROFIT SELL Applicability of Ratings Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends). Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies. Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear): Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders Funds EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax ก 8

7 ก ก ก ก (IOD) ก ก ก ก ก (Corporate Governance) ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก IOD ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ( ) ก ( ) ก ก ก ก 8

8 ก ก ก 20-21, /9 1 ก ก ก ก ก ก G 1005 ก ก ก 3 ก /39-50 ก กก 11 ก ก ก ก 5 ก ก G F ก ก ก 12 ก- ก ก 7/129 ก ก ก ก ก ก / ก ก ก ก ก กก ก , 589 ก B001 A ก ก ก ก ก ก / 3 ก 3 9 ก ก ก ก 50 1 ก ก ก ก 50 ก ก ก C ) 55 ( ก ก 110/ /1-4 ก ก All Seasons Place Retail Center /2 ก / ก ก ก 4 ก /5 E 2 ( ) ก , ,4/5 ก ก (053) (053) / (053) (053) /2 ก (044) ).044) /60 1 ก (038) (038) ก 3 - ก (054) (054) / (044) (044) G3 G (045) (045) /91 ก (034) (034) / (038) (038) ก TSK PARK / (038) (038) / (039) (039) ก 1, 1/1 ก (076) (076) / ก 4 2. ก (034) (034) ,3, (074) (074) /3 4 ก (077) (077) ก ก (037) (037) (073) (073) /11 ก (032) (032) ก 163/1-2 ก 1 ก (043) ).043) /15-16 ก (056) (056) : ก ก. ก ก ก ( ) ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก. ก ก ก ( ) ก ก ก ก 8