Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ)

Transcription

1 Equity Research Company Update Tuesday, 31 October 2017 BUY Maintain Last price (IDR) 2,860 Target Price (IDR) 3,900 Upside/Downside +36.4% Previous Target Price (IDR) 3,900 Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg Ticker Construction PTPP IJ No of Shrs (mn) 6,200 Mkt. Cap (IDR bn/usdmn) 17,732/1,306 Avg. daily T/O (IDR bn/usdmn) 64.2/4.7 Major shareholders Government 51.0% Estimated free float (%) 59.7 EPS Consensus(IDR) 2017F 2018F 2019F Danareksa Consensus Danareksa/Cons PTPP relative to JCI Index Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ) 9M17 earnings above expectations PTPP booked strong 9M17 earnings growth of 74.7%yoy to IDR990bn on the back of higher margins and interest income. The 9M earnings are 69% of our full year estimate and 68% of the consensus and higher than the last twoyears average rate of 53.2% - i.e. above expectations. We expect the market to revise up its FY17 earnings target by around 17% given this strong result. We are reviewing our forecast on PTPP. Revenues in 9M17 rose 26.9%yoy to IDR13.8tn (9M16: IDR10.8tn). Construction services was still the main contributor toward the 9M revenues (64%), followed by EPC (20%), property (13%), and others - precast, energy, and equipment rentals (3%). Better margins. The gross profit margin (GPM) in 9M17 reached 14.5%, or higher than the previous year s 14.0%. Margins improved in both the construction and EPC businesses. The GPM in the construction business reached 14. in 9M17 (9M16: 11.4%), while EPC s GPM climbed to 16.4% from 14.2% in the previous year. As such, the operating profit margin (OPM) expanded to 12.4% in 9M17 from 11.3%. PTPP booked IDR127bn of interest income and IDR238bn of interest expenses. The 9M17 interest income of IDR127bn jumped from IDR28bn in 9M16, while the interest expenses of IDR238bn rose 23%yoy. The higher interest expenses reflect higher debt. However, the DER as of Sep 17 of 0.66x is only slightly higher than it was as of Dec 16 of 0.63x, supported by the strong performance of PP Property. The equity from minority interests of PPRO in Sep 17 reached IDR2.1tn or double the figure as of Dec 16. Negative operating cash flow due to seasonality. Operating CF in Sep 17 stood at negative IDR1.5tn (vs. the previous year s figure of negative IDR1.8tn). However, the negative 9M17 operating cash flow can still be considered reasonable, in our view, given that most payments take place in 4Q. Valuation. We are reviewing our forecast following the release of the strong 9M result. Based on our current valuation, PTPP is trading at PE of 12.4x-8.9x below its -SD PE of 13.0x. Source : Bloomberg Maria Renata (62-21) ext.3513 maria.renata@danareksa.com Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Revenue, (IDRbn) 14,217 16,459 22,113 30,662 37,795 EBITDA, (IDRbn) 1,584 2,044 2,793 3,772 4,633 EBITDA Growth, (%) Net profit (IDRbn) 740 1,023 1,435 1,994 2,605 EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) BVPS, (IDR) , , , ,088.6 DPS, (IDR) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Source : PTPP, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 1

2 3M13 6M13 9M13 FY13 3M14 6M14 9M14 FY14 3M15 6M15 9M15 FY15 3M16 6M16 9M16 FY16 3M17 6M17 9M17 Exhibit 1. REVENUES AND GROWTH Exhibit 2. NET PROFITS AND GROWTH Exhibit 3. MARGINS Exhibit 4. GEARING LEVEL Exhibit 5. OPERATING CASH FLOW Rp tn (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) (2.0) (2.5) Exhibit 6. 9M17 REVENUES BREAKDOWN Equipmen t rental EPC 20% Precast Property 13% Energy Construction 64% Source: Company Source: Company See important disclosure at the back of this report 2

3 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Exhibit 7. PE BAND CHART Exhibit 8. SHARE PRICE 10, SD: 29.0x +1SD: 23.6x Avg.: 18.3x -1SD: 13.0x -2SD: 7.6x 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, x 23.0x 18.0x 13.0x 8.0x 0 1,000 - Exhibit 9. 9M17 RESULT SUMMARY QoQ Rp bn 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 Chg Chg 9M17 Chg FY17F FY17F YoY YoY Danareksa 9M17/ % % % % Revenue 4,373 5,209 5, , , Gross profit , , Operating profit , , Net profit (5.6) , Gross margin (%) (0.8) (0.5) Op margin (%) (0.2) (0.7) Net margin (%) (1.1) See important disclosure at the back of this report 3

4 Exhibit 10. Income Statement Revenue 14,217 16,459 22,113 30,662 37,795 COGS (12,210) (14,003) (18,808) (26,201) (32,336) Gross profit 2,007 2,456 3,306 4,460 5,459 EBITDA 1,584 2,044 2,793 3,772 4,633 Oper. profit 1,664 2,123 2,893 3,908 4,790 Interest income Interest expense (373) (409) (541) (578) (616) Forex Gain/(Loss) Income From Assoc. Co s Other Income (Expenses) (4) (11) (100) (185) (228) Pre-tax profit 1,288 1,704 2,252 3,146 3,946 Income tax (442) (552) (648) (943) (1,092) Minority interest (105) (128) (169) (210) (250) Net profit 740 1,023 1,435 1,994 2,605 Core Net Profit 804 1,102 1,535 2,178 2,832 Exhibit 11. Balance Sheet Cash & cash equivalent 3,025 9,125 8,553 8,073 8,429 Receivables 8,833 11,154 13,274 18,406 22,688 Inventory 2,499 2,656 2,638 3,821 4,779 Other Curr. Asset 797 1, ,038 1,195 Fixed assets - Net 2,989 4,178 5,878 6,731 7,563 Other non-curr.asset 709 2,461 3,165 3,470 3,806 Total asset 19,129 30,983 34,673 41,884 48,840 ST Debt 1,779 3,707 4,774 3,722 5,112 Payables 7,888 10,237 9,709 14,094 16,982 Other Curr. Liabilities 1,447 1,934 2,727 3,355 3,951 Long Term Debt 1,354 3,083 2,438 3,142 2,147 Other LT. Liabilities 1,541 1,475 2,520 3,020 3,526 Total Liabilities 14,010 20,437 22,168 27,333 31,718 Shareholder'sFunds 2,963 8,251 9,380 10,943 12,949 Minority interests 737 1,000 1,701 2,041 2,449 Total Equity & Liabilities 17,710 29,688 33,248 40,316 47,116 See important disclosure at the back of this report 4

5 Exhibit 12. Cash Flow Net income 740 1,023 1,435 1,994 2,605 Depreciation and Amort Change in Working Capital (150) (423) (1,632) (1,549) (1,978) OtherOper. Cash Flow 486 (64) 1, ,004 Operating Cash Flow 1, ,458 1,553 1,787 Capex (2,469) (1,268) (1,801) (989) (989) Others Inv. Cash Flow (349) (1,438) (755) (306) (337) Investing Cash Flow (2,817) (2,706) (2,556) (1,296) (1,326) Net change in debt 36 3, (348) 395 New Capital (30) 4, Dividend payment (136) (148) (307) (431) (598) Other Fin. Cash Flow 2, Financing Cash Flow 2,279 8, (738) (104) Net Change in Cash 617 6,100 (572) (481) 357 Cash - begin of the year 2,408 3,025 9,125 8,553 8,073 Cash - end of the year 3,025 9,125 8,553 8,073 8,429 Exhibit 13. Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Growth (%) Sales EBITDA Operating profit Net profit Profitability (%) Gross margin EBITDA margin Operating margin Net margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Gearing (x) 0.0 (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Interest Coverage (x) Source : PTPP, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 5