Sari Roti (ROTI) Equity Research ROTI Visit Notes. Not Rated. A fresh approach. Tuesday, 22 January 2019
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- Lambert Casey
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1 1/0/1900 1/17/2018 2/14/2018 3/14/2018 4/11/2018 5/9/2018 6/6/2018 7/4/2018 8/1/2018 8/29/2018 9/26/ /24/ /21/ /19/2018 Equity Research ROTI Visit Notes Tuesday, 22 January 2019 Not Rated Last price (IDR) IDR 1,220 Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg Ticker Consumer ROTI No of Shrs (mn) 6,186 Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 7,547/540 Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 5.6/0.4 Major shareholders (%) Indoritel Makmur International 25.8 Bonlight Investment Ltd Estimated free float 53.4 ROTI relative to JCI Index 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, ROTI, Rp/share (LHS) Relative to JCI Index, % (RHS) Sari Roti (ROTI) A fresh approach ROTI is on track to achieve higher revenues growth this year following the fullyear implementation of its forecasting tool that leads to lower sales returns and higher margins. Another impetus for growth comes from its widening distribution footprint in General Trade (GT) with BOTI a new product that seeks to tap the nation s grassroots. Good progress translates into solid FY18 revenues. Sari Roti has recovered well since performance tanked in 1Q18 thanks to the implementation of its forecasting tool that results in lower sales returns (a low of only 7.6% in August 2018 vs % in 2017), combined with an increase in the number of point of sales in General Trade (GT) to 44.5k Point of Sales (POS) by the end of 2018 (2Q18: 17.5k). As a result, 4Q18 revenues are estimated to grow a brisk 16.4% yoy, supporting FY18F top line growth of 10.8% yoy (FY17F: -1.2%). In 2019, the operation of additional capacity from new factories starting in the second half of the year should pave the way for higher revenues growth. Tapping the nation s grassroots: another revenues driver. With around 60% of the country s bread industry comprising small-medium sized enterprises (SME) bakeries, which sell affordably priced products (starting at IDR1,000-2,000/piece or 7-13cents/piece), we see that ROTI has good potential to boost sales. As such, the company s move to launch BOTI - with pricing of around IDR2,000/piece in local and well-known/familiar flavors in GT channels - should be another growth driver going forward. Launched in October 2018, BOTI is estimated to provide 3% of the company s FY19 revenues. With a different team, unique strategies and wider distribution channels, BOTI sales stand to benefit from the government s populist policies implemented in the elections period. Higher top line growth in FY19. With several initiatives expected to materialize in 2019, the company has provided guidance for higher FY19 top line growth of 15-18% but with lower net margins of 6-7% due to higher opex, a period of adjustment to achieve a higher utilization rate and losses at its operations in the Philippines. In our view, upside potential stems from higher-than-expected top line growth with higher gross margins following lower sales returns, translating into stronger earnings. However, volatility in prices of wheat which constitutes around 25% of the company s total COGS may derail further margin improvements going forward. At the current share price, ROTI is trading at FY19F PE of x, based on net profit guidances provided by the company. x Natalia Sutanto (62-21) ext.3508 natalia.sutanto@danareksa.com Key Financials M18 Revenue, IDRbn 1,880 2,175 2,522 2,491 1,985 EBITDA, IDRbn EBITDA growth, % (0.1) (31.2) (18.0) Net profit, IDRbn EPS, IDR EPS growth, % (50.0) (13.6) BVPS, IDR Dividend per shares, IDR PER, x PBV, x Yield, % EV/EBITDA, x Source : Company, Bloomberg See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
2 Exhibit 1. Shareholder Structure Exhibit 2. Segment of bread industry % 20% 68% Mass production Small Bakery Boutique Bakery By December 2018 Exhibit 3. Net sales contribution by product category Exhibit 4. Net sales contribution by channel Exhibit 5. Quarterly Indonesia sales and return rate Exhibit 6. PE Band Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 PE Average +1 SD -1SD +2SD -2SD, 4Q18 indicative figure Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 2
3 Company background Established in 1995, ROTI is a leading mass-produced bread company in Indonesia, with extensive distribution coverage in MT and GT (more than 76,000 POS). At present, the company has 11 factories operating across Indonesia and 1 Factory in the Philippines which started its operation in April Currently, the company has production capacity of more than 4.5mn pieces of bread/day. The company also has 100 Stock Keeping Units (SKUs). However, around 80% of sales come from around 20 SKUs. Exhibit 7. Production facilities in Indonesia What to expect this year? 1. Additional new factories commencing operations This year, the company expects additional 12% production capacity from its new factories located in Gresik, Lampung and Balikpapan. Higher production capacity will support the company s guidance of higher top line growth this year. 2. Strengthening the GT Channel The company has continued to strengthen its presence in General Trade, with a new structure to push more sales as well as establish its own distribution platform to replace under-performing distributors. As a result, the company has increased its presence in GT to 44,000 POS from only 17,500 POS in 2Q18. Exhibit 8. Quarterly improvement in GT POS Exhibit 9. Cyclist in General Trade See important disclosure at the back of this report 3
4 3. BOTI s rollout in Java and Sumatera In October 2018, the company launched a special brand BOTI, targeting the nation s grassroots with affordable prices of around IDR2,000/piece. In 2019, the company will continue to gradually roll-out these products in Java and Sumatera, specifically through GT channels. With a 12-day shelf life, BOTI will provide the company with an opportunity to benefit from higher sales resulting from increasing purchasing power through higher subsidies this year. Exhibit 10. BOTI new product for a new segment Going overseas Philipines In April 2018, the company commenced the commercial operation of its bread factory in Laguna, the Philippines. With 6 SKUs, the company has made its products available in around 1,300 Modern Trade (MT) stores as well as 7Eleven outlets. Despite its small contribution to revenues (6% in FY18), it has reportedly obtained a positive response which should translate into a higher factory utilization rate in the future. The company s business in the Philippines is Monde Nissin, a top consumer food company, which has a strong network of Sari-Sari stores (approximately 30,000 stores) and modern retailers. The company sees sound potential in the Philippines with its population of over 100mn, 65% of whom are under 30 years old. The business is expected to generate profits by See important disclosure at the back of this report 4
5 2019 higher guidance for top line growth With many improvements made in 2018, the company has provided FY19 top line guidance of 15-18% yoy growth, supported by higher volume in GT and MT. With lower sales returns, gross margins have room to improve to 54% (company guidance ranging from 52-54%). Including the losses from the Philippines, ROTI is estimated to book a 6.5-7% net margin. Exhibit 11. Quarterly net sales and gross profit Exhibit 12. Quarterly margins See important disclosure at the back of this report 5
6 Exhibit 13. Income Statement IDR bn M18 Revenue 1,880 2,175 2,522 2,491 1,985 COGS (979) (1,020) (1,221) (1,183) (934) Gross profit 901 1,155 1,301 1,308 1,051 EBITDA Oper. profit Interest income Interest expense (47) (90) (92) (92) (61) Forex Gain/(Loss) 4 (0) Income From Assoc. Co s (0) Other Income (Expenses) (6) (14) (17) Pre-tax profit Income tax (64) (108) (90) (51) (37) Minority interest - - (0) (11) 33 Net profit Exhibit 14. Balance Sheet IDR bn M18 Cash & cash equivalent ,895 1,389 Receivables Inventory Other Curr. Asset Fixed assets - Net 1,680 1,821 1,843 1,994 2,129 Other non-curr.asset Total asset 2,143 2,706 2,920 4,560 4,299 ST Debt Payables Other Curr. Liabilities Long Term Debt Other LT. Liabilities Total Liabilities 1,183 1,518 1,477 1,739 1,445 Shareholder'sFunds 960 1,189 1,399 2,774 2,766 Minority interests Total Equity & Liabilities 2,143 2,706 2,920 4,560 4,299 See important disclosure at the back of this report 6
7 Exhibit 15. Cash Flow IDR bn M18 Net income Depreciation and Amort Non-Cash items 8 79 (73) 10 (92) Operating Cash Flow Capex (390) (237) (162) (341) (259) Others Inv. Cash Flow (5) (4) (55) (28) (154) Investing Cash Flow (396) (240) (217) (370) (413) Net change in debt (301) New Capital - (1) - 1 (60) Dividend payment (16) (28) (54) (69) (36) Other Fin. Cash Flow - (1) 43 1, Financing Cash Flow (11) 1,372 (374) Net Change in Cash ,284 (668) Cash - begin of the year ,058 Cash - end of the year ,895 1,389 Exhibit 16. Key Ratios M18 Growth (%) Sales (1.2) 8.8 EBITDA (0.1) (31.2) (18.0) Operating profit (0.3) (41.7) (34.3) Net profit (47.9) 5.7 Profitability (%) Gross margin EBITDA margin Operating margin Net margin ROA ROE Leverage Net Gearing (x) nc nc Interest Coverage (x) Source : Company, Bloomberg See important disclosure at the back of this report 7
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