Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ)
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- Clifford Clyde Thompson
- 5 years ago
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1 Equity Research Result note Wednesday, 02 May 2018 HOLD MAINTAIN Last price (IDR) 2,040 Target Price (IDR) 2,100 Upside/Downside +2.9% Previous Target Price (IDR) 2,100 Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg Ticker CONSUMER KINO IJ No of Shrs (mn) 1,429 Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 2,914/210 Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 0.2/0.0 Major shareholders (%) PT KINO INVESTINDO 69.5 DBSSG S/A NUSANTARA FMCG LIMITED 10.7 Estimated free float 9.3 EPS Consensus (IDR) 2018F 2019F 2020F Danareksa Consensus Danareksa/Cons (47.1) (31.7) 35.2 KINO relative to JCI Index Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ) Solid top line with a higher gross margin KINO reported solid 1Q18 earnings of IDR31bn on the back of a strong top line from a low base in 1Q17 with an improved gross margin. In 1Q18, personal care and beverages reported 30% and 25% yoy revenues growth, respectively. The 1Q18 net profit figure is 34% of our full year forecast, i.e. in line. Strong top line, supported by both PC and Beverages. KINO reported 1Q18 revenues of IDR832bn, +24.2% and +2.1% qoq. By division, personal care booked higher growth of 30% yoy while beverages reported 25% yoy growth. The remaining divisions - Foods and Pharmaceuticals (with a total 12% contribution to 1Q18 revenues) - also reported solid growth in 1Q18. The 1Q18 revenues reached 24% of our full year forecast, i.e. in line. Higher gross margins supported earnings. In 1Q18, KINO reported a higher gross margin of 45.2% (4Q17: 42.7% and 1Q17: 42%) on the back of product reformulation to locally sourced raw materials and production efficiencies. By division, personal care and beverages reported improved gross margins of 57.3% and 41.4%, respectively. KINO reported continued high opex spending in 1Q18 probably arising from the preparations for new product launches. However, the high gross margin supported the 1Q18 operating margin which reached 6.4%. In turn, this filtered through to a better 1Q18 net margin of 3.7%. In 1Q18, KINO booked robust net profits of IDR31bn, or reaching 34% of our FY18F i.e. in line. Higher inventory and receivable days on distribution structure revamping. Early this year, the company revamped the structure of its distribution division, resulting in slightly higher activity ratios. However, better performance is expected in 2Q18 and onward. In 1Q18, the inventory days reached 82 days (4Q17: 74 days) with slightly higher receivable days of 103 days (4Q17: 91 days). As a result, the 1Q18 cash conversion cycle increased to 100 days (4Q17: 85 days). Maintain HOLD. We will revisit our model following the release of the 1Q18 result. In our view, the company s ability to conduct product innovation coupled with the revamping of its distribution and better efficiencies should translate into solid earnings growth in the future. Nonetheless, sustainable improvements remain to be seen in relation to the activity ratios/working capital management. HOLD maintained. Source : Bloomberg x Natalia Sutanto (62-21) ext.3508 natalia.sutanto@danareksa.com Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue (IDRbn) 3,493 3,161 3,412 3,663 3,936 EBITDA (IDRbn) EBITDA Growth (%) (41.7) (18.4) Net profit (IDRbn) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (90.8) (38.9) (16.1) BVPS (IDR) 1, , , , ,676.5 DPS (IDR) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Source : KINO, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
2 Exhibit 1. Revenues and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Profits and Growth Exhibit 3. Margins Exhibit 4. Gearing Level Exhibit 5. 1Q18 Result Financial performance 1Q17 4Q17 1Q18 yoy qoq 2018F A/F, % Revenue, IDRbn % 2.1% 3,412 24% COGS % -2.4% 1,977 Gross profit % 8.0% 1,435 26% Opex % 10.8% 1,245 Operating profit % -6.3% % Pretax profit % -12.1% 118 Net profit % -26.2% 93 34% Gross margin 42.0% 42.7% 45.2% 42.1% Opext to revenue 39.4% 35.8% 38.8% 36.5% Operating margin 2.6% 6.9% 6.4% 5.6% Pretax margin 0.8% 6.0% 5.1% 3.5% Net margin 0.5% 5.2% 3.7% 2.7% Inventory days Receivable days Payable days See important disclosure at the back of this report 2
3 Exhibit 6. Income Statement Revenue 3,493 3,161 3,412 3,663 3,936 COGS (2,089) (1,830) (1,977) (2,120) (2,283) Gross profit 1,404 1,330 1,435 1,543 1,653 EBITDA Oper. profit Interest income Interest expense (90) (70) (71) (76) (81) Forex Gain/(Loss) 0 (1) Income From Assoc. Co s 3 (4) Other Income (Expenses) (3) (3) Pre-tax profit Income tax (38) (31) (26) (40) (60) Minority interest (1) Net profit Core Net Profit Exhibit 7. Balance Sheet Cash & cash equivalent Receivables Inventory Other Curr. Asset Fixed assets - Net 1,222 1,247 1,335 1,405 1,480 Other non-curr.asset Total asset 3,284 3,238 3,446 3,616 3,906 ST Debt Payables Other Curr. Liabilities Long Term Debt Other LT. Liabilities Total Liabilities 1,332 1,182 1,296 1,343 1,449 Shareholder'sFunds 1,929 2,018 2,089 2,212 2,395 Minority interests Total Equity & Liabilities 3,284 3,238 3,424 3,594 3,884 See important disclosure at the back of this report 3
4 Exhibit 8. Cash Flow Net income Depreciation and Amort Change in Working Capital (129) (41) (49) OtherOper. Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow Capex (246) (79) (102) (110) (118) Others Inv. Cash Flow (50) 0 (33) (1) (6) Investing Cash Flow (296) (79) (135) (111) (125) Net change in debt (14) (214) New Capital Dividend payment (53) (36) (22) (19) (28) Other Fin. Cash Flow (90) (70) (71) (76) (81) Financing Cash Flow (114) (287) 64 (80) (34) Net Change in Cash (302) (57) Cash - begin of the year Cash - end of the year Exhibit 9. Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Growth (%) Sales (3.1) (9.5) EBITDA (41.7) (18.4) Operating profit (44.9) (21.9) Net profit (31.4) (38.9) (16.1) Profitability (%) Gross margin EBITDA margin Operating margin Net margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Gearing (x) Interest Coverage (x) Source : KINO, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 4
5 See important disclosure at the back of this report 5
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