Wijaya Karya Beton (WTON IJ)
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- Suzan Burns
- 5 years ago
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1 Equity Research Result Notes Thursday,30 November 2017 BUY Maintain Last price (IDR) 600 Target Price (IDR) 800 Upside/Downside +33.3% Previous Target Price (IDR) 1,100 Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg Ticker Construction WTON IJ No of Shrs (mn) 8,338 Mkt. Cap (IDR bn/usdmn) 5,003/371 Avg. daily T/O (IDR bn/usdmn) 9.7/0.7 Major shareholders Wijaya Karya 78.4% Public 21.6% Estimated free float (%) EPS Consensus(IDR) n/a 2017F 2018F 2019F Danareksa Consensus Danareksa/Cons 0.4 (1.4) (2.1) WTON relative to JCI Index Wijaya Karya Beton (WTON IJ) Strong revenues on the back of a solid order book WTON has just released its 9M17 result. Earnings grew briskly by 34%yoy to IDR220bn underpinned by strong revenues and a solid order book. The result is in-line with our target and consensus estimates. The 9M17 order book of IDR8.1tn was up 36.6%yoy and it reached 58.6% of the full year target. We maintain our forecast given that the result is in-line but roll over our valuation to 2018 and arrive at a new target price of IDR800. BUY maintained. Earnings in 9M17 grew 34%yoy: in-line. WTON s 9M17 earnings of IDR220bn rose 34.1%yoy. This figure is in-line with our full year target (63%) and the consensus (61%) since last year s result reached 60% of the full year figure. The brisk earnings growth came on the back of strong revenues growth of 52.8%yoy to IDR3.4tn. This was supported by a strong order book. The 9M17 revenues are 72% of our full year target and 76% of the consensus (last year the figure was 71%). Solid 9M17 order book. The 9M17 order book reached IDR8.1tn, up 80%yoy compared to IDR4.5tn in 9M16. The 9M17 order book consists of IDR4.1tn of new contracts (9M16: IDR3.0tn, +36.6%yoy) and IDR4.0tn of carry over contracts. The 9M17 figure is 58.6% of the full year target. Slightly lower gross margin of 12.7% compared to 13.6% in the previous year. This resulted in a slightly lower operating margin of 10.1% (9M16: 10.8%). Interest expenses jumped to IDR62bn from IDR39bn last year due to higher debts. Total debt reached IDR1.3tn as of Sep 17, up from only IDR670bn in Dec 16. Consequently, the DER increased to 0.50x in Sep 17 from 0.27x as of Dec 16. However, interest coverage in 9M17 reached 5.63x - still good. Valuation. We maintain our forecast on WTON but roll over our model to 2018 and arrive at a new target price of IDR800 (IDR1,100 previously). Our new target price is based on: 1) -1SD PE of 16.0x (old: median between -1SD PE and Avg. PE of 27.0x, and 2) 2018 EPS of IDR50.4 (old: 2017 EPS of IDR41.9). BUY maintained. Source : Bloomberg Maria Renata (62-21) ext.3513 maria.renata@danareksa.com Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Revenue, (IDRbn) 2,653 3,482 4,785 5,766 7,057 EBITDA, (IDRbn) EBITDA Growth, (%) (54.4) Net profit (IDRbn) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (49.9) BVPS, (IDR) DPS, (IDR) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Source : WTON, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
2 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Exhibit 1. REVENUE AND GROWTH Exhibit 2. NET PROFIT AND GROWTH Exhibit 3. MARGINS Exhibit 4. GEARING LEVEL Exhibit 5. PE BAND CHART Exhibit 6. SHARE PRICE CHART 70 2, SD: 57.4x +1SD: 43.6x Avg.: 29.8x -1SD: 16.0x -2SD: 2.1x 2,000 1,500 1, x 34.0x 26.0x 18.0x 10.0x Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 2
3 Higher revenues coming from WIKA. Revenues coming from the parent company, Wijaya Karya (WIKA), reached IDR831bn, up from IDR215.5bn last year (+284%yoy). This figure is 24.3% of the total revenues, up from last year s 9.7%. By type of revenues, the revenues from services rose significantly from IDR76bn last year to IDR302bn (+300%yoy) in Sep 17. Hence, the contribution of services revenues increased to 8.8% this year from 3.4% in the previous year. Exhibit 7. 9M17 RESULTS SUMMARY YoY YoY Danareksa 9M17/ Rp bn 3Q16 3Q17 Chg 9M17 Chg FY17F FY17F % % % Revenue 723 1, , , Gross profit Op. profit Net profit GPM (%) (3.4) 12.7 (1.0) 14.0 OPM (%) (2.4) 10.1 (0.7) 10.2 NPM (%) (1.8) 6.4 (0.9) 7.3 Exhibit 8. REVENUES CONTRIBUTED BY WIKA Revenues fr WIKA (LHS) Contribution to revenues (RHS) (RpBn) (%) FY15 3M16 6M16 9M16 FY16 3M17 6M17 9M17 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Company See important disclosure at the back of this report 3
4 Exhibit 9. Income Statement Revenue 2,653 3,482 4,785 5,766 7,057 COGS (2,324) (2,977) (4,115) (4,959) (6,069) Gross profit EBITDA Oper. profit Interest income Interest expense (63) (57) (59) (87) (108) Forex Gain/(Loss) (8) Income From Assoc. Co s Other Income (Expenses) 1 (16) Pre-tax profit Income tax (34) (71) (87) (105) (129) Minority interest (2) Net profit Core Net Profit Exhibit 10. Balance Sheet Cash & cash equivalent Receivables ,021 1,247 Inventory ,168 1,430 Other Curr. Asset Fixed assets - Net 1,998 2,219 2,492 2,748 2,988 Other non-curr.asset Total asset 4,456 4,662 5,461 6,278 7,360 ST Debt Payables ,028 1,257 Other Curr. Liabilities ,088 1,332 Long Term Debt Other LT. Liabilities Total Liabilities 2,193 2,172 2,703 3,205 3,896 Shareholder'sFunds 2,205 2,422 2,690 3,005 3,395 Minority interests Total Equity & Liabilities 4,456 4,662 5,461 6,278 7,360 See important disclosure at the back of this report 4
5 Exhibit 11. Cash Flow Net income Depreciation and Amort Change in Working Capital 95 (653) (127) (39) (52) OtherOper. Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow 369 (147) Capex (416) (359) (400) (400) (400) Others Inv. Cash Flow Investing Cash Flow (379) (342) (393) (377) (368) Net change in debt (35) New Capital Dividend payment (99) (52) (82) (105) (126) Other Fin. Cash Flow (71) (68) (59) (87) (108) Financing Cash Flow (205) (49) (15) Net Change in Cash (215) (472) Cash - begin of the year 1, Cash - end of the year Exhibit 12. Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Growth (%) Sales (19.1) EBITDA (54.4) Operating profit (41.9) Net profit (46.6) Profitability (%) Gross margin EBITDA margin Operating margin Net margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Gearing (x) (0.1) Interest Coverage (x) Source : WTON, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 5
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