Alam Sutra Realty(ASRI IJ)
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- Lucinda Rose
- 5 years ago
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1 Equity Research Transfer Coverage Wednesday,23 May 2018 HOLD Maintain Last price (IDR) 334 Target Price (IDR) 340 Upside/Downside +1.8% Previous Target Price (IDR) 390 Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg Ticker Property ASRI IJ No of Shrs (mn) 19,649 Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 6,563/464 Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 9.7/0.7 Major shareholders (%) Tangerang Fajar Industrial Estate 25.2 Manunggal Prime Development 18.7 Estimated free float 56.1 EPS Consensus (IDR) 2018F 2019F 2020F Danareksa Consensus Danareksa/Cons ASRI relative to JCI Index Alam Sutra Realty(ASRI IJ) Relying on Land Sales We expect land sales to CFLD of an estimated Rp2.1tn to be the driver for ASRI s marketing sales in FY18. Recognition of land marketing sales that took place in FY17 and 1Q18 is expected to boost the FY18 revenues. The 2Q18 launchings have been mixed, with Llyod impressing, but Flavio showing rather disappointing performance. ASRI aims to launch one more residential cluster in Suvarna Sutra, Lloyd (Phase 3 & 4) in 2H18 in addition to selling properties at its existing projects in order to achieve its marketing sales target. Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of Rp340. Land sales to CFLD to drive its FY18 marketing sales. We expect land sales to CFLD to help ASRI achieve its FY18 marketing sales target of Rp4.0tn (vs. our forecast of Rp3.6tn). According to the cooperation agreement, ASRI will sell 100Ha of land/year to CFLD (FY17-FY21), with the option of extending cooperation for another 5 years. In 1Q18, marketing sales reached Rp1.43tn, with 50 Ha of land sales to CFLD reaching Rp1.17tn (implying a land ASP of Rp2.34mn/sqm). We expect ASRI to book around another Rp1.0tn from the sale of a further 50 Ha in the coming quarters. Mixed performance of its 2Q18 product launchings. In 2Q18, we expect ASRI to book marketing sales of around Rp500bn from the launchings of Lloyd and the Cluster Flavio. Based on our checks, Lloyd has performed well with ~230 units sold (Phase 1 &2) with prices around Rp bn/unit, while Flavio has shown disappointing performance with only 28 units sold, implying a 29% takeup rate, with prices ranging from Rp1.0 to 2.0bn/unit. Entering 2H18, the company will rely on the launching of one more residential cluster in Suvarna Sutra, Lloyd (Phase 3 &4) and sale of existing projects such as The Tower, Prominence, Kota Ayodhya and Paddington. Source : Bloomberg x Yudha Gautama (62-21) ext 3509 yudha.gautama@danareksa.com Revenues growth expected to reach 10% in FY18. In FY18, we expect ASRI to book revenues of Rp4.3tn (+10.0% YoY), with net profits of an estimated Rp1.8tn (+27.2% YoY). We expect revenues recognition to be boosted from its land sales to CFLD in FY17 and 1Q18, previous residential launchings (Cluster Leora and Chiara) and the sale of units at Prominence and The Tower. Maintain HOLD. We maintain our HOLD call on ASRI with a lower TP of Rp340 (from Rp390), based on a higher discount to NAV of 76% (from 73%) to account for the uptrend in interest rates and the recent 25bps hike in interest rates which may translate into higher mortgage rates and slower property demand. ASRI currently trades at a 77% discount to NAV vs. the sector s 72%. Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue (IDRbn) 2,716 3,917 4,310 4,138 4,132 EBITDA (IDRbn) 1,177 2,070 2,265 2,215 2,176 EBITDA Growth (%) (31.0) (2.2) (1.7) Net profit (IDRbn) 509 1,380 1,754 1,583 1,581 EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (14.7) (9.8) (0.1) BVPS (IDR) DPS (IDR) 0.0 (1.5) (10.5) (13.4) (12.1) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) 0.0 (0.4) (2.8) (3.5) (3.2) EV/EBITDA (x) Source : ASRI, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
2 Exhibit 1. Revenues and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Profits and Growth Exhibit 3. Margins Exhibit 4. Gearing Exhibit 5. ASRI Discount to NAV 55.0% -2SD 60.0% -1SD 65.0% 70.0% Mean +1SD 75.0% 80.0% +2SD Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Jun 2017 Sep 2017 Dec 2017 Mar 2018 Exhibit 6. Property Sector Discount to NAV 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% -2SD -1SD Mean +1SD +2SD 75.0% Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Jun 2017 Sep 2017 Dec 2017 Mar See important disclosure at the back of this report 2
3 Exhibit 7. Income Statement Revenue 2,716 3,917 4,310 4,138 4,132 COGS (1,251) (1,541) (1,702) (1,551) (1,548) Gross profit 1,465 2,376 2,609 2,587 2,584 EBITDA 1,177 2,070 2,265 2,215 2,176 Oper. profit 1,096 1,986 2,183 2,131 2,090 Interest income Interest expense (226) (314) (304) (318) (345) Forex Gain/(Loss) 157 (32) Income From Assoc. Co s Other Income (Expenses) (358) (107) (113) (129) (98) Pre-tax profit 723 1,575 1,923 1,747 1,746 Income tax (213) (190) (161) (158) (159) Minority interest (1) (5) (7) (6) (6) Net profit 509 1,380 1,754 1,583 1,581 Core Net Profit 351 1,411 1,633 1,583 1,581 Exhibit 8. Balance Sheet Cash & cash equivalent 1, ,259 1,983 2,113 Receivables Inventory 1, Other Curr. Asset Fixed assets - Net 1,149 1,225 1,300 1,346 1,390 Other non-curr.asset 15,955 17,185 18,115 19,160 20,443 Total asset 20,186 20,728 22,105 23,819 25,223 ST Debt Payables Other Curr. Liabilities 2,480 2,145 1,913 1,839 1,837 Long Term Debt 7,511 7,194 7,302 7,504 7,854 Other LT. Liabilities 2,053 1,818 1,870 1,847 1,846 Total Liabilities 12,998 12,156 11,985 12,379 12,439 Shareholder'sFunds 7,083 8,465 10,013 11,333 12,676 Minority interests Total Equity & Liabilities 20,186 20,728 22,105 23,819 25,223 See important disclosure at the back of this report 3
4 Exhibit 9. Cash Flow Net income 509 1,380 1,754 1,583 1,581 Depreciation and Amort Change in Working Capital (411) (23) 113 (39) 50 OtherOper. Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow 1,006 1,739 2,428 1,977 2,045 Capex (787) (1,436) (1,245) (1,291) (1,496) Others Inv. Cash Flow 53 (161) Investing Cash Flow (733) (1,598) (1,209) (1,228) (1,397) Net change in debt 466 (205) (167) New Capital Dividend payment 10 (36) (207) (263) (237) Other Fin. Cash Flow (307) (411) (304) (318) (345) Financing Cash Flow 278 (613) (678) (25) (518) Net Change in Cash 551 (471) Cash - begin of the year 638 1, ,259 1,983 Cash - end of the year 1, ,259 1,983 2,113 Exhibit 10. Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Growth (%) Sales (2.4) (4.0) (0.1) EBITDA (31.0) (2.2) (1.7) Operating profit (32.6) (2.4) (1.9) Net profit (14.7) (9.8) (0.1) Profitability (%) Gross margin EBITDA margin Operating margin Net margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Gearing (x) Interest Coverage (x) Source : ASRI, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 4
5 See important disclosure at the back of this report 5
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HOLD TP: Rp14,000 (+10.2%) Astra Agro Lestari Seasonal slow down Sector Plantation Bloomberg Ticker AALI IJ Share Price Performance Last price (Rp) 12,700 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 18.5/1.3 3m 6m 12m
More informationHOLD Target Price, IDR 1,900 Upside 5.2%
Friday, 20 February 2015 HOLD Target Price, IDR 1,900 Upside 5.2% KLBF IJ/KLBF.JK Last Price, IDR 1,805 No. of shares (bn) 46,875 Market Cap, IDR bn 84,609 (US$ mn) 6,594 3M T/O, US$mn 5.1 Last Recommendation
More informationExhibit 1 : Financial Highlights. Source : TINS, Ciptadana Estimates
BUY TP: Rp910 (+18.2%) Timah Strong 2Q18 performance on higher volume Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Metals TINS IJ Last price (Rp) 770 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 14.6/1.0 3m 6m 12m Absolute
More informationHM SAMPOERNA. FY17 results meeting expectations. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights. Source : HMSP, Ciptadana Estimates
HOLD TP: Rp5,130 (+8.9%) HM SAMPOERNA FY17 results meeting expectations Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Cigarette HMSP IJ Last price (Rp) 4,710 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 76.5/5.6 3m 6m
More informationIntiland Development. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights. Source : DILD, Ciptadana Estimates
BUY TP: Rp520 (+25.0%) Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Property DILD IJ Last price (Rp) 416 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 2.6/0.2 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) -1.0 0.0-28.9 Relative to JCI (%)
More informationEquity SNAPSHOT Thursday, November 01, 2018
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, November 01, 2018 FROM EQUITY RESEARCH 9M18 Results Airlines Garuda Maintenance Facility (GMFI): Rising expenses disappointed earnings click here Cements Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa
More informationBUY. Lippo Karawaci EQUITY RESEARCH. Stable income through diversified products. TP: Rp880 (+19.7%) LPKR - Results Update - 10 October 2017
BUY TP: Rp880 (+19.7%) Lippo Karawaci Stable income through diversified products Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Property LPKR IJ Last price (Rp) 735 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 53.2/3.9
More informationTelkom. FY17 analyst call - key notes. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights. Source : TLKM, Ciptadana Estimates
BUY TP: Rp4,900 (+32.9%) Telkom FY17 analyst call - key notes Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Telco TLKM IJ Last price (Rp) 3,710 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 463.8/33.8 3m 6m 12m Absolute
More informationBUY (Unchanged) Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ) Equity Indonesia Construction. Company Update. Solid fundamental with stellar performance
Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ) BUY (Unchanged) 17 January 2018 Company Update Equity Indonesia Construction Stock Data Target price (Rp) Prior TP (Rp) Shareprice (Rp) Rp4,700 Rp4,700 Rp3,030 Upside/downside
More informationTP Sh.Pr. Ups/dw Earnings PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div. yield (%) PEG (x) Rec. (Rp/sh) (Rp/sh) (%) CAGR('15-18)
February 6, 2015 Cement Sector Focus Maria Renata (maria.renata@trimegah.com) A new era in cement industry Government s intervention raises ASP uncertainty... We cut our ASP by ~6% or Rp3000/bag for our
More informationMedco Energy (MEDC IJ)
Medco Energy (MEDC IJ) BUY (Unchanged) 04 May 2018 Results Note Equity Indonesia Mining 280 260 240 220 180 160 140 120 80 Stock Data Target price Prior TP Shareprice Rp1,370 Rp1,370 Rp1,170 Upside/downside
More informationNippon Indosari (ROTI IJ)
Nippon Indosari (ROTI IJ) HOLD (Unchanged) 16 November 2017 Company Update Equity Indonesia Consumer Stock Data Target price (Rp) Prior TP (Rp) Shareprice (Rp) Rp1,200 Rp1,400 Rp1,295 Upside/downside (%)
More informationTelkom (TLKM IJ) HOLD (from Buy) Recovery mostly priced-in. Equity Indonesia Telecommunication. Company Update. 28 November 2018
Equity Indonesia Telecommunication Telkom (TLKM IJ) HOLD (from Buy) Stock Data Target price (Rp) Prior TP (Rp) Shareprice (Rp) Rp4, Rp4,1 Rp3,72 Upside/downside (%) +7.5 Sharesoutstanding (m) 99,62 Marketcap.
More informationHOLD. Astra International EQUITY RESEARCH. Lower TP on market share loss concern. TP: Rp8,800 (+9.0%) ASII - Results Update - 01 March 2018
HOLD TP: Rp8,800 (+9.0%) Astra International Lower TP on market share loss concern Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Automotive ASII IJ Last price (Rp) 8,075 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 222.7/16.2
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October 13, 2015 Mitra Keluarga Company Focus Patricia Gabriela (patricia.gabriela@trimegah.com) Titan in medical industry Initiate coverage on MIKA with BUY We initiate our coverage on MIKA with a Buy
More informationIndocement (INTP IJ) BUY (Unchanged) Improving cost mix. Equity Indonesia Cement. Company Update. 23 February 2016
Equity Indonesia Cement Indocement (INTP IJ) BUY (Unchanged) StockData Target price (Rp) Rp22,500 Prior TP (Rp) 20,600 Shareprice (Rp) Rp19,375 Upside/downside (%) +16.1 Sharesoutstanding (m) 3,681 Marketcap.
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Dec 9, 14 Adhi Karya Company Focus Maria Renata (maria.renata@trimegah.com) Cheapest infra proxy A story of the fallen angel Backed by disappointment from several default projects in the past, investors
More informationWaskita Karya. Lower TP on worries of funding. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights. Source : WSKT, Ciptadana Estimates
BUY TP: Rp2,600 (+37.6%) Waskita Karya Lower TP on worries of funding Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Construction WSKT IJ Last price (Rp) 1,890 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 37.7/2.9 3m
More informationTower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ)
Equity Research Initiation Wednesday,17 October 2018 HOLD Initiation Last price (IDR) 5,000 Target Price (IDR) 5,300 Upside/Downside +6.0% Previous Target Price (IDR) 5,300 Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg
More informationAstra International. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights. Source : ASII, Ciptadana Estimates
HOLD TP: Rp8,050 (+9.9%) Astra International In-line results, Hold rating kept with lower TP Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Automotive ASII IJ Last price (Rp) 7,325 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn)
More informationJapfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA IJ / JPFA.JK
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September 1, 2014 Matahari Putra Prima Company Focus Sebastian Tobing (Sebastian.tobing@trimegah.com) Paula Ruth (paula@trimegah.com) Re-rating Upside Potential Expect re-rating to continue We expect MPPA
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TRIM COMPANY FOCUS Feb 12, 2013 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Capturing opportunity Bekasi Fajar own MM2100 industrial estate with total 2.100 licensed area. This estate was formed by JV with Marubeni
More informationOpportunity before it races higher. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights. Source : PTPP, Ciptadana Estimates
BUY TP: Rp4,200 (+40.9%) PT PP Opportunity before it races higher Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Construction PTPP IJ Last price (Rp) 2,980 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 58.6/4.4 3m 6m 12m
More informationBuy Dec 2017 TP (IDR) 3,250 Consensus Price (IDR) 3,469 TP to Consensus Price -6.3% vs. Last Price +18.2%
Surya Citra Media, Tbk (SCMA) Is Optimistic about Performance Improvement Less Maximum Growth SCMA closed 2016 by booking the revenue of IDR4.5 trillion (+6.7% y-y), while in Q4 2016, SCMA s revenue was
More informationHold Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 1,850 Consensus Price (IDR) 2,193 TP to Consensus Price -15.6% vs. Last Price +4.5%
Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) Faces Challenge of Stagnant Middle- High Class Income Accomplishment in Marketing Sales Underlined by One-Off Factor In FY 2017, BSDE succeeded to post the sales of IDR10.4
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