Bumi Serpong Damai(BSDE IJ)

Transcription

1 Equity Research Company Update Friday,17 November 2017 BUY Maintain Bumi Serpong Damai(BSDE IJ) Steady progress Last price (IDR) 1,640 Target Price (IDR) 2,000 Upside/Downside +22.0% Previous Target Price (IDR) 2,200 Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg Ticker Property BSDE IJ No of Shrs (mn) 19,247 Mkt. Cap (IDR bn/usdmn) 31,565/2,332 Avg. daily T/O (IDR bn/usdmn) 28.9/2.1 Major shareholders Paraga Artamida 26.6% Ekacentra Usahamaju 25.0% Estimated free float (%) EPS Consensus(IDR) n/a 2017F 2018F 2019F Danareksa Consensus Danareksa/Cons 39.9 (0.3) (74.2) BSDE relative to JCI Index Source : Bloomberg Antonia Febe Hartono, CFA (62-21) ext.3504 antonia.hartono@danareksa.com Natalia Sutanto (62-21) ext.3508 natalia.sutanto@danareksa.com BSDE has indicated marketing sales of IDR6.8tn in 10M17, or reaching 93.8% of our full year target (IDR7.3tn) and 94.2% of the management s target (IDR7.2tn). In October alone, BSDE s indicative marketing sales reached IDR2.0tn, supported by: (i) commercial land plot sales of IDR1.6tn, and (ii) proceeds generated from the price lock program of IDR400bn. Going into 2018, we believe the marketing sales of BSDE will remain firm, underpinned by commercial land plot sales. Maintain BUY. Superlative marketing sales in October BSDE has indicated marketing sales of IDR6.8tn in 10M17, or reaching 93.8% of our full year target (IDR7.3tn) and 94.2% of the management s target (IDR7.2tn). In October alone, BSDE s indicative marketing sales reached IDR2.0tn, supported by: (i) commercial land plot sales of IDR1.6tn, and (ii) the IDR400bn proceeds from Price Lock. In regard to the latter, note that the marketing sales from the launch of The Savia (amounting to IDR90bn, a 47% take-up rate from 192 units available for sale) were included in the proceeds of the Price Lock program. Set to achieve our full year marketing sales target. With the solid marketing sales in 10M17 along with the Price Lock program up to December 2017, we believe BSDE can achieve our full year marketing sales target. BSDE is currently accepting reservations for upper segment landed residential units in BSD City s Jadeite with 124 units available for sale and prices ranging from IDR bn/unit. The launching will take place in January Outstanding financial performance this year. As we expect the company to recognize revenues from the commercial land plot sales this year, we revise up our 2017 revenue and net profit targets by 14.1% and 24.0%, respectively. As such, our new revenue and net profit targets imply 44.3%yoy and 118.4%yoy growth, respectively. Flat marketing sales in Going into 2018, we only expect BSDE to record flat marketing sales of IDR7.3tn (+0.2%yoy), still mainly underpinned by land plot sales. While we remain cautious on the outlook for property demand next year (as reflected in our flattish growth estimate for regular property sales of +1.6%yoy), we believe that BSDE will enjoy greater flexibility in conducting product offerings given its ample land bank of more than 4,000ha. We reiterate our BUY call. We reiterate our BUY call on BSDE with a slightly lower target price of IDR2,000 (from IDR2,200 previously) as we increase our target discount to NAV from 60% to 68%. Our target discount to NAV is based on the historical +1SD discount to NAV of BSDE. The higher target discount to NAV is inline with our cautious view on the outlook for property demand next year. Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Revenue, (IDRbn) 6,210 6,522 9,408 7,748 4,539 EBITDA, (IDRbn) 3,103 3,060 5,231 3,952 1,746 EBITDA Growth, (%) 11.1 (1.4) 70.9 (24.4) (55.8) Net profit (IDRbn) 2,139 1,796 3,923 2, EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (46.5) (16.0) (29.0) (72.9) BVPS, (IDR) , , , ,412.1 DPS, (IDR) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Source : BSDE, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 1

2 Exhibit 1. REVENUE AND GROWTH Exhibit 2. NET PROFIT AND GROWTH Exhibit 3. MARGINS Exhibit 4. GEARING LEVEL Exhibit 5. BSDE s discount to NAV 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% -2SD -1SD Mean +1SD +2SD 75.0% Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Jun 2017 Sep 2017 Exhibit 6. Sector s discount to NAV 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% -2SD -1SD Mean +1SD +2SD 70.0% Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Jun 2017 Sep See important disclosure at the back of this report 2

3 Exhibit 7. Site plan of Jadeite Source: Company Exhibit 8. Forecast changes Previous New Changes in IDR bn Marketing sales 6,252 7,256 6,848 7,256 7, % 6.2% Revenue 6,522 8,245 7,911 9,408 7, % -2.1% Gross profit 4,681 6,048 5,884 6,870 5, % -4.6% Operating profit 2,835 4,118 3,811 4,909 3, % -5.1% Net profit 1,796 3,163 2,887 3,923 2, % -3.6% See important disclosure at the back of this report 3

4 Exhibit 9. NAV calculation Land bank Location Stakes Total asset (Rp bn) 127,632.7 Net debts (Rp bn) 3,916.2 Sales advance (Rp bn) 5,247.9 Net asset value (Rp bn) 118,469 Discount to NAV (% ) 68% Number of shares outstanding (bn shares) 19.2 Target price (Rp/share) 2,000 Area (ha) Plot ratio Price per sqm (Rp mn/sqm) Method RNAV (Rp bn) BSD City Tangerang Developed Tangerang 100.0% % 11.5 NAV 15,530 Undeveloped Tangerang 100.0% 2, % 5.7 NAV 76,083 Kota Wisata Cibubur, West Java 88.6% % 3.8 NAV 2,418 Grand Wisata Bekasi 88.6% % 4.6 NAV 13,016 Grand City Samarinda, East Kalimantan 55.0% % 4.6 NAV 1,443 Balikpapan Balikpapan 55.0% % 2.9 NAV 1,913 Kota Bunga Cipanas, West Java 88.6% % 0.1 NAV 7 Mangga Dua Centre Surabaya, East Java 88.6% % 0.5 NAV 1 Rasuna South Jakarta 100.0% % 28.8 NAV 434 Legenda Wisata Cibubur, West Java 88.6% % 0.9 NAV 77 Manado North Sulawesi 100.0% % 0.7 NAV 61 MT Haryono Central Jakarta 100.0% At cost 133 Jatiasih Bekasi 88.6% At cost 102 Tanjung Sari Surabaya, East Java 88.6% At cost 90 Tanjung Barat - Lenteng Agung Jakarta 88.6% At cost 127 Roxy II Central Jakarta 100.0% At cost 930 Benowo Surabaya, East Java 88.6% At cost 1,110 Makassar South Sulawesi 100.0% At cost 414 Cibubur West Java 88.6% At cost 253 Dukuh Pakis Surabaya, East Java 100.0% At cost 272 Palembang South Sumatera 100.0% At cost 206 Total land bank 4,290.7 Investment property Mall and office under BSDE DCF 10,940 Mall and office under PLIN 45% DCF 2,077 See important disclosure at the back of this report 4

5 Exhibit 10. Income Statement Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Revenue 6,210 6,522 9,408 7,748 4,539 COGS (1,572) (1,840) (2,538) (2,137) (1,135) Gross profit 4,638 4,681 6,870 5,611 3,404 EBITDA 3,103 3,060 5,231 3,952 1,746 Oper. profit 2,901 2,835 4,909 3,615 1,508 Interest income Interest expense (575) (613) (613) (657) (772) Forex Gain/(Loss) 139 (116) Income From Assoc. Co s Other Income (Expenses) (48) (145) Pre-tax profit 2,715 2,425 4,558 3,296 1,035 Income tax (364) (387) (335) (299) (224) Minority interest (212) (241) (300) (213) (58) Net profit 2,139 1,796 3,923 2, Core Net Profit 2,001 1,913 3,884 2, Exhibit 11. Balance Sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Cash & cash equivalent 6,109 3,569 5,554 4,069 2,036 Receivables Inventory 6,548 7,441 8,423 9,356 10,243 Other Curr. Asset 3,283 4,302 3,318 3,172 2,889 Fixed assets - Net Other non-curr.asset 18,429 21,127 24,949 27,880 29,321 Total asset 36,022 38,292 44,864 46,460 46,511 ST Debt 2,055 1,121 2,300 1,390 2,261 Payables Other Curr. Liabilities 3,774 4,184 5,123 4,840 4,385 Long Term Debt 5,869 6,527 6,223 6,635 6,024 Other LT. Liabilities 1,910 1,846 2,404 2,363 2,242 Total Liabilities 13,925 13,939 16,771 15,981 15,561 Shareholder'sFunds 18,850 20,581 24,321 26,707 27,178 Minority interests 3,247 3,772 3,772 3,772 3,772 Total Equity & Liabilities 36,022 38,292 44,864 46,460 46,511 See important disclosure at the back of this report 5

6 Exhibit 12.Cash Flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Net income 2,139 1,796 3,923 2, Depreciation and Amort Change in Working Capital (2,171) (1,723) 1,190 (931) (955) OtherOper. Cash Flow (259) Operating Cash Flow (94) 712 6,145 2, Capex (955) (969) (2,024) (1,137) (824) Others Inv. Cash Flow (364) (1,736) (2,235) (1,408) (1,068) Investing Cash Flow (1,319) (2,705) (4,259) (2,544) (1,892) Net change in debt 3,493 (381) 1,104 (453) 264 New Capital Dividend payment (383) (217) (182) (398) (283) Other Fin. Cash Flow 1, (822) (678) (747) Financing Cash Flow 4,701 (548) 99 (1,529) (766) Net Change in Cash 3,289 (2,540) 1,986 (1,485) (2,033) Cash - begin of the year 2,820 6,109 3,569 5,554 4,069 Cash - end of the year 6,109 3,569 5,554 4,069 2,036 Exhibit 13. Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Growth (%) Sales (17.6) (41.4) EBITDA 11.1 (1.4) 70.9 (24.4) (55.8) Operating profit 8.9 (2.2) 73.1 (26.3) (58.3) Net profit (44.0) (16.0) (29.0) (72.9) Profitability (%) Gross margin EBITDA margin Operating margin Net margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Gearing (x) Interest Coverage (x) Source : BSDE, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 6