HOLD. Astra International EQUITY RESEARCH. Lower TP on market share loss concern. TP: Rp8,800 (+9.0%) ASII - Results Update - 01 March 2018
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- Beverly Mitchell
- 5 years ago
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1 HOLD TP: Rp8,800 (+9.0%) Astra International Lower TP on market share loss concern Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Automotive ASII IJ Last price (Rp) 8,075 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 222.7/16.2 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) Relative to JCI (%) w High/Low price (Rp) 9,350/7,625 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 Outstanding shrs (mn) 40,484 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/USDmn) 326,905/23,754 Estimated free float (%) 49.0 Major shareholders Jardine Cycle & Carriage 50.1% EPS Consensus Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 ASII Ciptadana Cons. % Diff 2018F F F Arief Budiman ext. 819 budimanarief@ciptadana.com 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% 1yr Rel. to JCI (RHS) Slightly weak 4Q17 numbers Astra International (ASII) reported 4Q17 net income of Rp4.7 tn, down by 3% QoQ, on margins drop across the board despite revenue went up by 7% QoQ to Rp55.8 tn. Operating profit declined by 2% QoQ as higher opex (+15%) more than offset 6% increase in gross profit. We trace that the weak operating profit (OP) was mainly resulted from weak OP at auto (-37% QoQ to Rp134 bn) and heavy equipment (-17% QoQ to Rp2.7 tn). 4W volume was down 7% QoQ to 135 k units due to more intense competition, leading to higher discount and lower margin to 0.5%. On heavy equipment & mining unit (UNTR), the decline in EBIT was dragged by mining contracting unit (PAMA) on higher costs resulting from increased depreciation and as well as higher opex..but full-year results still in-line, and a beat on operating profit Cumulatively, ASII saw it FY17 net pr ofit growing by 25% YoY to Rp18.9 tn which was precisely in-line with our forecast. FY17 revenue of Rp206 tn (+14% YoY) and operating profit of Rp20.3 tn (+16% YoY) were beating our estimates, representing 108 and 116% of our FY17F. On operating profit, auto OP declined significantly by 68% YoY to Rp668 bn on higher discount to hold up market share, in our view. Astra car market share slightly contracted from 55% in FY16 to 54% in FY17, however, its saw significant car market share losses from 58% at Dec-16 to 46% at Dec-17. The clear outperformer segment was UNTR which posted 40% YoY OP growth to Rp10.7 tn on stronger revenue and margin. Expecting competition in the car market to intensify We believe intensifying competition in Indonesia car market to continue with the launch of the locally-produced Mitsubishi Xpander. We see Xpander taking on established models such as the Toyota Avanza, Daihatsu Xenia and Honda's BR-V. Supported by Xpander, Mitsubishi was ranked No 3 in national car sales volume with 17,753 units (18.5% share) in Jan-18 and already toppled Honda s volume of 13,572 units (14.1%). Toyota was still in the lead (26% share) followed by Daihatsu (19.5%) but ASII market share was below 50% (at 48%). The production capacity of 4W in Indonesia in 2017 went up to 2.26 mn units due mainly to investments from Mitsubishi, Wuling and Sokon. As car sales in 2017 only went up 1.6% to 1.08 mn units, the industry s current capacity utilization rate of only 48 % could pose the risk of a price war developing to continue. Target price slashed to Rp8,800 and rating reduced to Hold We reduced our FY18F car volume assumption from 637 k units to 583 units (flat YoY) with market share declining by 200bps to 52%. This may be still aggressive given than Astra s car sales fared worse (down 7% YoY in Jan-18) than the industry s growth of 11%. Our CPO analyst also recently cut earnings forecast for AALI for FY18-19F by 24%-20% on higher production costs forecasts. These together negated the positive impact from upward earning revision in UNTR and resulted in ~ 2% lower in our earnings forecast for ASII in FY18-19F. Therefore, we lowered our target price for ASII from Rp9,250 to Rp8,800 and downgraded stock rating to Hold as our new TP offers limited upside from current share price. Our new TP is based on 16.6x 2018F PER which is in line with average historical PER. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue (Rpbn) 181, , , , ,594 Operating profit (Rpbn) 17,534 20,326 22,056 24,339 27,303 Net profit (Rpbn) 15,156 18,881 21,390 24,446 27,328 EPS (Rp) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Source : ASII, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 2
2 Exhibit 2: Astra FY17 results Rp bn FY17 FY16 YoY 4Q17 3Q17 QoQ 2017F FY17A/F Revenue 206, , % 55,832 52, % 190, % Cost of revenue -163, , % -44,137-41, % -153,209 Gross profit 42,368 36, % 11,695 10, % 37, % Gross margin (%) Opex -22,042-18, % -6,234-5, % -19,814 Operating profit 20,326 17, % 5,461 5, % 17, % Operating margin (%) Interest income 1,982 1, % % Interest expenses -2,042-1, % % Forex gain (loss) % % Share of controlled entities 5,440 2, % 974 1, % Share of results of asso. 1,254 1, % % Other income 2,245 1, % 1, % Total other income 8,870 4, % 2,212 2, % 9,142 97% Profit before tax 29,196 22, % 7,673 7, % 26,657 Income tax expenses -6,031-3, % -1,929-1, % -5,470 Minority interest -4,284-3, % -1,047-1, % Net income 18,881 15, % 4,697 4, % 18, % Net margin (%) Source: Company and Ciptadana Exhibit 3: Astra PER band (x) 21.2x 18.8x 16.4x 14.0x 11.6x Source: Bloomberg and Ciptadana Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 3
3 Exhibit 4 - Income Statement Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue 181, , , , ,594 COGS -144, , , , ,113 Gross profit 36,432 42,368 44,135 48,513 51,481 Oper. expenses -18,898-22,042-22,078-24,175-24,178 Oper. profit 17,534 20,326 22,056 24,339 27,303 EBITDA 25,076 28,192 32,176 35,244 39,068 Interest income 1,699 1,982 1,263 1,481 1,931 Interest expense -1,745-2,042-1,411-1,641-1,536 Other income (exp.) 4,920 8,939 9,368 10,088 10,819 Pre-tax profit 22,253 29,196 31,275 34,267 38,516 Income tax -3,951-6,031-5,175-5,012-5,292 Minority interest -3,178-4,112-4,710-4,809-5,896 Net profit 15,156 18,881 21,390 24,446 27,328 Exhibit 5 - Balance Sheet Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Cash & cash equivalent 30,256 31,879 37,163 48,429 54,499 Acct, receivables 18,946 25,351 23,736 25,535 27,447 Inventory 17,771 19,504 20,841 22,299 24,046 Other curr, asset 43,430 44,559 44,157 45,844 46,689 Total current asset 110, , , , ,681 Fixed assets - net 42,237 48,402 64,477 65,073 60,626 Other non-curr.asset 102, , , , ,664 Total asset 261, , , , ,302 ST debt + curr. maturity 45,820 43,584 44,413 41,040 42,286 Acct, payable 22,489 29,468 32,542 34,819 37,548 Advances received 4,436 4,465 3,285 3,534 3,799 Other curr. liab 16,334 21,205 18,258 19,346 20,802 Long term debt 25,090 31,394 36,644 39,794 28,448 Other non-curr, liab, 7,780 9,201 7,617 8,039 8,663 Total liabilities 121, , , , ,546 Shareholder equity 111, , , , ,451 Minority interest 27,955 32,684 39,592 43,792 48,305 Total liab + SHE 261, , , , ,302 Exhibit 6 - Per Share Data Year to 31 Dec(Rp) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F EPS BVPS 2, , , , ,062.2 DPS FCF per share Source : ASII, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 4
4 Exhibit 7 - Cash Flow Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Net income 15,156 18,881 21,390 24,446 27,328 Depreciation 7,542 7,866 10,120 10,905 11,765 Chg in working cap. 1,328-1,159 3, Other -4,619 4,254-3, CF-Oper activities 19,407 29,842 31,137 34,022 39,038 Capital expenditure -4,478-13,731-11,319-9,677-8,671 Others -6,320-16,442-16,332-6,792-7,126 CF-Investing activities -10,798-30,173-27,652-16,470-15,797 Net change in debt 261 4,068 6, ,099 Net change in equity 5, Dividend payment -7,232-7,578-9,441-10,695-12,223 Other financing -5,090 6,150 5,325 4,621 5,137 CF-Financing activities -6,354 2,548 1,963-6,297-17,185 Net cash flow 2,255 2,217 5,449 11,254 6,056 Cash - begin of the year 27,102 29,357 31,574 37,023 48,278 Cash - end of the year 29,357 31,574 37,023 48,278 54,334 Exhibit 8 - Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Growth Revenue (%) Operating profit (%) Net profit (%) Profitability Ratios Gross margin (%) Operating margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) ROA (%) ROE (%) Liquidity Ratios Current ratio (x) Quick ratio (x) Cash conversion cycle (days) Activity Ratio Inventory turnover (days) Receivable turnover (days) Payable turnover (days) Solvency Ratio Interest cover (x) Debt to equity ratio (x) Net debt to equity (x) Source : ASII, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 5
5 HEAD OF RESEARCH ANALYST ANALYST Arief Budiman Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA Yasmin Soulisa Strategy, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Banking Property, Plantations Construction, Shipping T ext 919 T ext 799 T ext 819 E siahaanerni@ciptadana.com E soulisayasmin@ciptadana.com E budimanarief@ciptadana.com ECONOMIST ANALYST ANALYST Imanuel Reinaldo Niko Margaronis Fahressi Fahalmesta T ext 820 Telecommunication, Tower, Healthcare Cement, Toll Road, Poultry E reinaldoimanuel@ciptadana.com T ext 734 T ext 735 E margaronisniko@ciptadana.com E fahalmestafahressi@ciptadana.com ANALYST ANALYST TECHNICAL ANALYST Stella Amelinda Fransisca Maharani Putri Trevor Gasman Consumer Media, Retail T ext 934 T ext 740 T ext 760 E gasmantrevor@ciptadana.com E amelindastella@ciptadana.com E putrifransisca@ciptadana.com RESEARCH ASSISTANT Sumarni T ext 920 E sumarni@ciptadana.com EQUITY SALES Co HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL SALES Dadang Mulyana Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2 Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jakarta Jakarta T ext 838 T ext 807 Co HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL SALES The Fei Ming F F E mulyanadadang@ciptadana.com E thefeiming@ciptadana.com BRANCH OFFICES JAKARTA - MANGGA DUA JAKARTA - PURI KENCANA SURABAYA Komplek Harco Mangga Dua Perkantoran Puri Niaga III Intiland Tower Surabaya Rukan Blok C No.10 Jl. Puri Kencana Blok M8 No.2E Ground Floor Suite 5 & 6 Jl. Mangga Dua Raya Kembangan Jl. Panglima Sudirman Jakarta Jakarta Surabaya T T T F F F SEMARANG Gedung Menara Suara Merdeka 6th Floor Unit 02 Jl. Pandanaran No.30 Semarang T F Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 6
6 Analyst Certification Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation. Disclaimer This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction. Nor are we acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to you. When making and investment decision, you should d etermine, without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting this report, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters. The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this report constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES AND ITS AFFILIATES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY RELIANCE ON THIS REPORT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS THEREOF. Disclaimer: This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES or any other member of the Ciptadana Capital, including any other member of the Ciptadana Group of Companies from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. The information in this document is subject to change without notice; its accuracy is not guaranteed; and it may be incomplete or condensed. Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 7
Astra International. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights. Source : ASII, Ciptadana Estimates
HOLD TP: Rp8,050 (+9.9%) Astra International In-line results, Hold rating kept with lower TP Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Automotive ASII IJ Last price (Rp) 7,325 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn)
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