Bank Central Asia. Still the best in class. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights. Source : BBCA, Ciptadana Estimates
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- Alexandra French
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1 BUY TP: 26,100 (+12.0%) Bank Central Asia Still the best in class Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Banking BBCA IJ Last Price(Rp) 23,300 Avg. Daily T/O(Rpbn/USDmn) 343.5/25.0 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) Relative to JCI (%) w High/Low price(rp) 24,700/15,450 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Outstanding Shrs (mn) 24,655 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/USDmn) 557,203/40,494 Estimated Free Float (%) 50.8 Major Shareholders Farindo Investments 47.2% EPS Consensus Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 BBCA Ciptadana Cons. % Diff 2018F 1, , F 1, , Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA ext. 919 siahaanerni@ciptadana.com 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1yr Rel. to JCI (RHS) In-line FY17 numbers Bank Central Asia (BBCA) closed the financial year of 2017 with a solid result with net income growing by 13.1% YoY to Rp23.3 tn. This came in-line with both our and consensus, forming 102% and 101% of 2017 estimates, respectively. Total loan grew by 12.4% YoY, ahead both our estimates and management guidance. Despite strong loan growth, net interest income only grew by 4% YoY in 2017, vs. 12% annually in the previous two years as NIM fell 55 bps YoY to 6.8% in The main driver of bottom line growth are the decline in provision expense (-42% YoY to Rp2.6 tn) and higher-than-expected non interest income (other income grew +52% YoY to Rp3.0 tn on gain from sales of fixed assets of Rp0.5 tn). Meanwhile, 4Q17 net income was Rp6.5tn, improved by 2.6% QoQ. Corporate loan growth picking up in 4Q17 The pickup of loan growth in 4Q17 was mostly driven by corporate segment (14.5% YoY) given higher demand at year -end consisted of some notable sectors: financial services, plantation and farming, electricity, and retailers. Consumer loan also scores a 12% YoY growth driven by strong mortgage distribution. In the commercial and SME segment, the strong growth of 10.3% YoY was partly contributed by commercial property loan for business purposes. As of Jan-18, according to its monthly publication, BBCA loan growth was accelerating even further to 15% YoY or only -1% MoM. Given better economy outlook going forward, we believe BBCA loan growth to accelerate further to 13% in 2018/2019F from 12% in There is also some upside from cost of credit, which was recorded at 0.6% in 2017 (vs. 1.1% in 2016), we believe cost of credit would still improve to 0.4% in 2018F. Asset yield still declined in 4Q17; resilient cost of fund on strong CASA In 2017, NIM decline was mostly on asset yield pressure rather than cost of funds. In 4Q17, asset yield still decline by 20 bps QoQ to 8.6%. We expect the decline to continue in 2018F, although the pressure would be smaller as we expect policy rate to be maintained at current level. However, BBCA offer some advantage in term of more resilient funding. According to the transactional payment data (exhibit 5), BBCA still maintains its dominance in transactional banking. The dominance has generated large amount of low cost fund in form of current and saving deposit (CASA). Hence CASA ratio maintained at 76% of total funding as of 4Q17 or far above industry average of 53% and funding will likely be more resilient to any funding rate pressure, compared to its peers. Overall, our NIM estimates was unchanged at % in 2018/2019F, 20 bps decline from current level. Upgrade to BUY with Rp26,100/share target price BBCA fundamental outlook remains the best among banks under our coverage. We estimate EPS growth of 12-13% in 2018/2019F, respectively, along with ROE of %, the highest among peers. We also revise up our earnings estimates by 2% in 2018/2019F and increase our target price accordingly to Rp26,100/share (from previously Rp22,000/share), implying 4.2x of 2018F PBV. BBCA currently trades at 3.8x 2018F PBV. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F Net Interest Income (Rpbn) 35,869 40,079 41,858 45,476 49,876 Net Profit (Rpbn) 18,019 20,606 23,310 26,344 29,560 EPS (Rp) , ,198.4 EPS growth (%) BVPS (Rp) 3, , , , ,066.5 PER (x) PBV (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) Dividend Yield (%) Source : BBCA, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 2
2 Exhibit 2: BBCA FY17 result (in Rp bn) 12M17 12M16 YoY 4Q17 3Q17 QoQ 2017F 12M17/17F Interest income 53,799 50, % 13,742 13, % Interest expense (11,942) (10,347) 15.4% (2,832) (3,206) -11.7% Net interest income 41,858 40, % 10,910 10, % 41, % Non-interest operating income 15,126 13, % 4,353 3, % 14, % Non-interest operating expense (25,192) (23,379) 7.8% (6,407) (5,539) 15.7% (25,240) 99.8% PPOP 31,792 30, % 8,856 8, % 30, % Provision expense (2,633) (4,561) -42.3% (804) (894) -10.1% (2,176) 121.0% Operating profit 29,159 25, % 8,052 7, % 28, % Net income 23,310 20, % 6,468 6, % 22, % Ratios (%) Asset yield Cost of fund NIM CASA LDR Cost to income Tax rate NPL gross Credit cost Loan loss coverage CAR ROA ROE Deposit 581, , % 581, , % Demand 151, , % 151, , % Savings 292, , % 292, , % Time 137, , % 137, , % Loan 467, , % 467, , % NPL 6,945 5, % 6,945 6, % Loan loss reserves -13,244-12, % -13,244-12, % Shareholders equity 131, , % 131, , % Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 3
3 Exhibit 3: Summary of changes in estimates 2018F 2019F Old New Chng Old New Chng Net interest income 45,185 45,476 1% 49,448 49,876 1% Non-interest income 16,357 16,759 2% 18,795 19,206 2% PPoP 33,855 34,775 3% 38,135 39,185 3% Operating profit 32,259 32,946 2% 36,211 36,968 2% Net profit 25,772 26,344 2% 28,928 29,560 2% EPS 1,046 1,068 2% 1,174 1,198 2% Total deposits 638, ,764 0% 710, ,877-1% Gross loans 512, ,139 3% 585, ,748 2% NPL 7,556 7,748 3% 8,234 8,444 3% Loan loss reserves (14,094) (13,999) -1% (14,871) (15,033) 1% Total assets 816, ,748 1% 912, ,071 0% Shareholders equity 150, ,567 1% 172, ,303 1% Asset yield (0.1) Cost of funds (0.0) NIM (0.0) Cost-to-income (0.9) (0.8) Credit cost (% of avg. loans) Tax rate LDR Gross NPL (0.0) LLR to NPL (5.9) (2.6) ROA (RHS) ROE (LHS) Source : BBCA, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 4
4 Exhibit 4: BBCA ROE and ROA estimates % ROE (LHS) ROA (RHS) F 2019F % Exhibit 5: BBCA and peers transactional payment outside branch in terms of value (annualized) Rp tn 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - BBCA BMRI BBNI 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Source : Companies and Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia Exhibit 6: BBCA NIM quarterly 8.0 % Exhibit 7: BBCA NIM estimates % F 2019F Exhibit 8: BBCA loan growth YoY 25% % 35% 31% 20% 15% 10% 5% 20% 15% 11% 11% 6% 8% 12% 11%12% 10% 9% 7% 6% 14% 12% 12% Exhibit 9: BBCA loan growth estimates % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 27% 22% 11% 12% 7% 12% 13% 13% 0% 0% F 2019F Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 5
5 Exhibit 10: BBCA forward PBV x Exhibit 11: BBCA forward PE x Jan-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Jan-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Exhibit 12: Banking peers valuation Bberg Ticker Mkt. Cap. (Rp tn) 3mo avg. Trading (Rp bn) PER (x) PBV (x) ROE Div. Yield 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F Big four banks BBCA BBRI BMRI BBNI Small banks BBTN BDMN BJBR BJTM BNGA PNBN BNLI BTPN BBKP Source : Bloomberg and Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 6
6 Exhibit 13 -Income Statement Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F Interest income 47,082 50,426 53,799 57,799 63,687 Interest expenses -11,213-10,347-11,942-12,324-13,812 Net interest income 35,869 40,079 41,858 45,476 49,876 Other non-interest income 12,007 13,700 15,126 16,759 19,206 Total operating income 47,876 53,779 56,984 62,234 69,082 Operating expenses -21,714-23,379-25,192-27,459-29,897 PPoP 26,162 30,400 31,792 34,775 39,185 Prov. expenses and others -3,505-4,561-2,633-1,829-2,217 Operating profit 22,657 25,839 29,159 32,946 36,968 Non-operating income (exp.) Pre-tax profit 22,657 25,839 29,159 32,946 36,968 Income tax -4,621-5,207-5,838-6,589-7,394 Minority interest Net profit 18,019 20,606 23,310 26,344 29,560 Exhibit 14 - Balance Sheet Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F Cash 17,849 15,944 16,754 16,754 16,754 Current acct, with BI 37,775 40,597 46,350 51,021 55,990 Interbank placement 64,698 47,830 17,267 17,267 17,267 Mkt, securities 23,309 49,799 88,977 96, ,332 Govt. Bonds 30,143 66,585 70,621 74,033 77,616 Loans 378, , , , ,715 Fixed assets 9,712 16,991 16,869 17,375 17,896 Other assets 21,754 23,815 25,938 25,938 25,938 Total Asset 594, , , , ,071 Deposits from customer 476, , , , ,334 Borrowings 4,677 5,378 3,747 4,263 3,737 Other liabilities 19,094 19,780 23,841 23,841 23,841 Total liabilities 504, , , , ,670 Shareholder equity 89, , , , ,303 Minority interest Total liab + SHE 594, , , , ,071 Exhibit 15 - Per Share Data (Rp) 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F EPS , ,198.4 BVPS 3, , , , ,066.5 DPS Source : BBCA, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 7
7 Exhibit 16 - Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F Ratios ROA (%) ROE (%) Net interest margin (%) Yield on earnings asset (%) Average cost of fund (%) Cost to income ratio (%) Cost of credit (%) Non-performing loan (%) Coverage ratio (%) Loan to deposit ratio (%) CASA ratio (%) Equity to Asset (%) Capital adequacy ratio (%) Tier-1 CAR PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) Growth (%) Total assets growth Loan growth Deposit growth NPL growth SHE growth Net interest income growth Non-interest income growth Provision expense growth Net profit growth Source : BBCA, Ciptadana Estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 8
8 HEAD OF RESEARCH ANALYST ANALYST Arief Budiman Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA Yasmin Soulisa Strategy, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Banking Property, Plantations Construction, Shipping T ext 919 T ext 799 T ext 819 E siahaanerni@ciptadana.com E soulisayasmin@ciptadana.com E budimanarief@ciptadana.com ECONOMIST ANALYST ANALYST Imanuel Reinaldo Niko Margaronis Fahressi Fahalmesta T ext 820 Telecommunication, Tower, Healthcare Cement, Toll Road, Poultry E reinaldoimanuel@ciptadana.com T ext 734 T ext 735 E margaronisniko@ciptadana.com E fahalmestafahressi@ciptadana.com ANALYST ANALYST TECHNICAL ANALYST Stella Amelinda Fransisca Maharani Putri Trevor Gasman Consumer Media, Retail T ext 934 T ext 740 T ext 760 E gasmantrevor@ciptadana.com E amelindastella@ciptadana.com E putrifransisca@ciptadana.com RESEARCH ASSISTANT Sumarni T ext 920 E sumarni@ciptadana.com EQUITY SALES Co HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL SALES Dadang Mulyana Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2 Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jakarta Jakarta T ext 838 T ext 807 Co HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL SALES The Fei Ming F F E mulyanadadang@ciptadana.com E thefeiming@ciptadana.com BRANCH OFFICES JAKARTA - MANGGA DUA JAKARTA - PURI KENCANA SURABAYA Komplek Harco Mangga Dua Perkantoran Puri Niaga III Intiland Tower Surabaya Rukan Blok C No.10 Jl. Puri Kencana Blok M8 No.2E Ground Floor Suite 5 & 6 Jl. Mangga Dua Raya Kembangan Jl. Panglima Sudirman Jakarta Jakarta Surabaya T T T F F F SEMARANG Gedung Menara Suara Merdeka 6th Floor Unit 02 Jl. Pandanaran No.30 Semarang T F Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 9
9 Analyst Certification Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation. Disclaimer This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction. Nor are we acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to you. When making and investment decision, you should d etermine, without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting this report, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters. The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this report constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES AND ITS AFFILIATES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY RELIANCE ON THIS REPORT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS THEREOF. Disclaimer: This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES or any other member of the Ciptadana Capital, including any other member of the Ciptadana Group of Companies from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. The information in this document is subject to change without notice; its accuracy is not guaranteed; and it may be incomplete or condensed. Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 10
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