Wika Beton. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights. Source : WTON, Ciptadana Estimates
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- Cody Chapman
- 5 years ago
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1 BUY TP: Rp910 (+73.3%) Wika Beton Solid set of results, strong outlook remains Sector Bloomberg Ticker Share Price Performance Construction WTON IJ Last price (Rp) 525 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 5.4/0.4 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) Relative to JCI (%) w High/Low price (Rp) 950/515 1, Outstanding shrs (mn) 8,715 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/USDmn) 4,575/343 Estimated free float (%) 28.8 Major shareholders Wijaya Karya 60.0% Employee 11.2% EPS Consensus Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 WTON Ciptadana Cons. % Diff 2017F F F Arief Budiman ext. 819 budimanarief@ciptadana.com 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% 1yr Rel. to JCI (RHS) 1H17 results within expectations Wijaya Karya Beton (WTON) just released its audited 1H17 financials with net profit growing up by 25% YoY to Rp137 bn. This formed around 37% of both our and consensus FY17F of Rp bn, in line with the last two years achievement of 30-40%. WTON 1H17 revenue of Rp2 tn grew by 31% YoY which further lifted up operating profit to grow by 37% YoY to Rp219 bn. 1H17 revenue and operating profit reached 48% and 42% of our FY17F, which were above of historical achievement of 34-44% and 35-39%. WTON also saw margin improvement in GPM (5bps to 13.7%) and OPM (5bps to 11.0%). However, below the operating line, WTON profitability was partly weighed down by elevated interest expense to Rp39 bn (+57% YoY) and sharp decline in interest income to only Rp2 bn (-85% YoY) as well as higher effective tax rate of 23% (vs 20% in 1H16). On the positive side, the company managed to see recovery in impairment allowance of Rp835 mn. significant improvement in 2Q earnings as expected As we mention in our previous report, we expect to see stronger revenue growth of74% QoQ in 2Q17 as the company will recognize revenue from part of product delivered in 1Q17 coupled with seasonally higher revenue than 1Q. 2Q17 Operating profit was also solid at Rp137 bn (+68% QoQ) further lifted net profit to jump 68% to Rp86 bn. GPM was slightly down to 13.6% in 2Q17 from 13.9% in 1Q17, albeit higher than 13.2% in 2Q16. We believe this could be attributable to long Eid Al Fitr holidays in 2Q17 which reduce utilization rate, resulting to higher per-unit cost. However, our chat with management today revealed that the plant capacity utilization rate has increased to 105%, suggesting their employee working weekend and overtime, from normal rate of 85%. New contracts up 50% WTON has obtained new contracts of Rp3.3 tn in 7M17, reflecting 50% YoY, and achieved 46% and 43% of our and company s FY17 target of Rp6.5 and Rp7 tn. Among the largest contract were from LRT Jakarta project of Rp139 bn, Porong Gempol toll road of Rp106 bn, Tangguh development oil & gas field of Rp32 bn. WTON is planning to boost capacity by 10% to 3.3 mn tones next year on current higher utilization rate. Meanwhile, we notice the company received higher portion of new contracts of 24% from its parent WIKA (previously around 14%). We believe this is less an issue for WTON as it charges normal price to WIKA despite higher AR collection period of 81 days (vs other clients of 75 days) as part of the contracts include turn-key scheme. Maintain Buy rating with new TP of Rp910 We continue to like WTON on its more diversified precast products for power plant, toll roads, elevated railway, oil & gas field, LRT projects and others. Subsequent to in-line results, we maintain our FY17-18 earnings forecast. However, we lower our target price to Rp910 as we now based our TP on 2018F PER of 17x, reflecting a multiple that is in-line with -1 stdev following sharp de-rating valuation of construction sector. As our new TP still offers huge upside potential of 73% we maintain our Buy rating on WTON. Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Revenue (Rpbn) 2,653 3,482 4,200 5,040 6,047 Operating profit (Rpbn) Net profit (Rpbn) EPS (Rp) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 2
2 Exhibit 2 WTON 1H17 results Rp bn 1H17 1H16 YoY 2Q17 1Q17 QoQ H/17F Revenues 1, , % 1, % 4, % COGS -1, , % -1, % -3, % Gross profit % % % Gross margin (%) G&A and dev expenses % % Marketing expenses % % Operating expenses % % Operating profit % % % Operating margin (%) Forex gain (loss) % n/a Net interest income (exp) % % Other income (expense) % n/a Total other income (exp) % % Pre-tax profit % % % Tax % % Net profit before MI % % Minority interest % % Net profit % % % Net profit margin (%) Exhibit 3 WTON forward PER band x 45x 30x 20 17x x Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 3
3 Exhibit 4 - Income Statement Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Revenue 2,653 3,482 4,200 5,040 6,047 COGS -2,324-2,977-3,582-4,299-5,159 Gross profit Oper. expenses Oper. profit EBITDA Interest income Interest expense Other income (exp.) Pre-tax profit Income tax Minority interest Net profit Exhibit 5 - Balance Sheet Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Cash & cash equivalent Acct, receivables ,013 1,029 Inventory Other curr, asset Total current asset 2,455 2,440 2,680 2,844 2,984 Fixed assets - net 1,998 2,219 2,431 2,678 2,978 Other non-curr.asset Total asset 4,456 4,662 5,127 5,552 6,008 ST debt + curr. maturity Acct, payable ,032 Advances received Other curr. liab Long term debt Other non-curr, liab, Total liabilities 2,153 2,129 2,445 2,685 2,900 Shareholder equity 2,245 2,465 2,623 2,806 3,045 Minority interest Total liab + SHE 4,456 4,662 5,127 5,552 6,008 Exhibit 6 - Per Share Data Year to 31 Dec(Rp) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F EPS BVPS DPS FCF per share Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 4
4 Exhibit 7 - Cash Flow Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Net income Depreciation Chg in working cap Other CF-Oper activities Capital expenditure Others CF-Investing activities Net change in debt Net change in equity Dividend payment Other financing CF-Financing activities Net cash flow Cash - begin of the year 1, Cash - end of the year Exhibit 8 - Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Growth Revenue (%) Operating profit (%) Net profit (%) Profitability Ratios Gross margin (%) Operating margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) ROA (%) ROE (%) Liquidity Ratios Current ratio (x) Quick ratio (x) Cash conversion cycle (days) Activity Ratio Inventory turnover (days) Receivable turnover (days) Payable turnover (days) Solvency Ratio Interest cover (x) Debt to equity ratio (x) Net debt to equity (x) Net Cash Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 5
5 HEAD OF RESEARCH ANALYST ANALYST Arief Budiman Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA Kurniawan Sudjatmiko Strategy, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Banking Coal, Metal Mining, Oil & Gas and Services Construction, Shipping T ext 919 T ext 739 T ext 819 E siahaanerni@ciptadana.com E sudjatmikokurniawan@ciptadana.com E budimanarief@ciptadana.com ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST Nichelle Ongko Niko Margaronis Yasmin Soulisa Media, Retail, Others Telecommunication, Tower, Consumer Property, Healthcare, Plantations T ext 740 T ext 734 T ext 799 E ongkonichelle@ciptadana.com E margaronisniko@ciptadana.com E soulisayasmin@ciptadana.com JUNIOR ECONOMIST TECHNICAL ANALYST RESEARCH ASSISTANT Imanuel Reinaldo Trevor Gasman Sumarni T ext 820 T ext 934 T ext 920 E reinaldoimanuel@ciptadana.com E gasmantrevor@ciptadana.com E sumarni@ciptadana.com EQUITY SALES Co HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL SALES Dadang Mulyana Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2 Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jakarta Jakarta T ext 838 T ext 807 Co HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL SALES The Fei Ming F F E mulyanadadang@ciptadana.com E thefeiming@ciptadana.com BRANCH OFFICES JAKARTA - MANGGA DUA JAKARTA - PURI KENCANA SURABAYA Komplek Harco Mangga Dua Perkantoran Puri Niaga III Intiland Tower Surabaya Rukan Blok C No.10 Jl. Puri Kencana Blok M8 No.2E Ground Floor Suite 5 & 6 Jl. Mangga Dua Raya Kembangan Jl. Panglima Sudirman Jakarta Jakarta Surabaya T T T F F F SEMARANG Gedung Menara Suara Merdeka 6th Floor Unit 02 Jl. Pandanaran No.30 Semarang T F Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 6
6 Analyst Certification Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation. Disclaimer This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction. Nor are we acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to you. When making and investment decision, you should determine, without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting this report, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters. The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this report constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES AND ITS AFFILIATES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY RELIANCE ON THIS REPORT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS THEREOF. Disclaimer: This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES or any other member of the Ciptadana Capital, including any other member of the Ciptadana Group of Companies from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. The information in this document is subject to change without notice; its accuracy is not guaranteed; and it may be incomplete or condensed. Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 7
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