Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE.IJ)

Transcription

1 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Equity Research Company Update Thursday,02 Feb 2017 BUY Maintain Last price Rp 2,200 Target Price Rp2,200 Upside/Downside 0. Previous Target Price Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg Ticker Rp2,500 Property BSDE IJ No of Shrs (mn) 19,247 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/USDmn) 42,343/3,300 Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 27.5/2.1 Major shareholders Paraga Artamida 26.6% Ekacentra Usahamaju 25. Estimated free float (%) Net Profit Consensus n/a 2016F xxxxxx xxxxxx Danareksa 86.7 xxxxxx xxxxxx Consensus xxxxxx xxxxxx Danareksa/Cons (46.6) xxxxxx xxxxxx BSDE relative to JCI Index 1,440 1,340 1,240 1,140 1, Source : Bloomberg ADRO Antonia Febe Hartono Antonia.hartono@danareksa.com (62-21) ext.3504 Natalia Sutanto Natalia.sutanto@danareksa.com (62-21) ext JCI Index [RHS] 5,600 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE.IJ) Upside remains We reiterate our BUY call on BSDE with a lower Target Price of Rp2,200 (SOTP based valuation with WACC of 13.4% and Terminal Growth of 4.). Thanks to revenues recognition from the JV with Mitsubishi amounting to Rp1.4tn, we can expect stellar revenues growth this year. And with sizable revenues from land sales, we also foresee margins expansion across the board. Despite this, however, marketing sales growth is expected to be flat in 2017 (+2. yoy). Flattish marketing sales expected in 2017 After recording 7.5% yoy lower marketing sales in 2016, we expect flattish sales in 2017 (+2. yoy). Our estimate is lower than the management s guidance of 10-15% growth this year, reflecting our concerns on unsupportive macroeconomic factors, i.e. tightening of liquidity in the banking sector and potential increases in mortgage rates given the expectation of more Fed Rate hikes. Note that in our marketing sales target, we already include the marketing sales from the JV with Mitsubishi of Rp840bn and land sales for the Serpong Balaraja toll road of Rp900bn. Should we exclude the one-off transactions, our marketing sales target would imply 5.6% yoy growth. Stellar revenues growth in 2017 thanks to the JV with Mitsubishi Although BSDE separated the marketing sales recognition coming from the JV with Mitsubishi (Rp560bn in 2016 and Rp840bn in 2017), the company has confirmed that it will recognize revenues from the JV Mitsubishi amounting to Rp1.4tn this year. This will help BSDE to record revenues of Rp7.5tn this year, up 23.5% yoy, in our estimate. Margins set to expand With sizable revenues recognition from land sales which enjoy higher gross margins than residential and commercial projects (80-9 for land vs. 5-6 for residential projects and 50-7 for commercial projects), we estimate that BSDE s gross margin will expand by 1.9 ppt to 75.6%. Coupled with strong revenues and a lower final tax, we forecast a net margin of 35.8% in 2017 (up 8.5ppt). Maintain BUY We reiterate our BUY recommendation on BSDE with a lower Target Price of Rp2,200 (SOTP based valuation with WACC of 13.4% and Terminal Growth of 4.). We increase our discount to NAV from 5 to 6 to reflect unsupportive macroeconomic factors. Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Revenue, (Rpbn) 5,614 6,210 6,114 7,548 6,379 EBITDA, (Rpbn) 2,792 3,103 2,820 3,960 3,085 EBITDA Growth, (%) (7.0) 11.1 (9.1) 40.5 (22.1) Net profit (Rpbn) 3,818 2,139 1,669 2,702 2,004 EPS (Rp) EPS growth (%) 35.1 (46.5) (22.0) 61.8 (25.8) BVPS, (Rp) , , ,276.7 DPS, (Rp) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Source : BSDE, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report

2 BSDE to launch two new apartments this year After a one-year delay, the company will launch two new apartment projects this year: the South Gate apartment in Tanjung Barat, Jakarta and the Klaska Residence in Central Surabaya. So far, the company has received reservations for units for South Gate and 400 units for Klaska Residence. Should demand for the apartments be encouraging, the company has indicated that it will launch Aerium Apartment in Taman Permata Buana this year. Exhibit 1. Earning revision Previous New Changes in Rp bn Marketing sales 6,757 6,897 6,897 6,252 6, % -7.5% Revenue 6,210 6,326 6,472 6,114 7, % 16.6% Gross profit 4,638 4,650 4,769 4,504 5, % 19.7% Operating profit 2,901 2,807 2,837 2,582 3, % Net profit 2,139 1,859 2,009 1,669 2, % 34.5% Exhibit 2. NAV Calculation Location Stakes Area (ha) Plot ratio Price per sqm (Rp mn/sqm) Method RNAV (Rp bn) BSD City Tangerang Developed Tangerang NAV 34,888 Undeveloped Tangerang , NAV 33,041 Kota Wisata Cibubur, West Java 88.6% NAV 3,086 Grand Wisata Bekasi 88.6% NAV 15,383 Grand City Samarinda, East Kalimantan NAV 6,978 Balikpapan Balikpapan NAV 1,835 Kota Bunga Cipanas, West Java 88.6% NAV 24 Mangga Dua Centre Surabaya, East Java 88.6% NAV 1 Rasuna South Jakarta NAV 423 Legenda Wisata Cibubur, West Java 88.6% NAV 107 Manado North Sulawesi NAV 60 MT Haryono Central Jakarta At cost 117 Jatiasih Bekasi 88.6% At cost 101 Tanjung Sari Surabaya, East Java 88.6% At cost 90 Tanjung Barat - Lenteng Agung Jakarta 88.6% At cost 134 Roxy II Central Jakarta At cost 662 Benowo Surabaya, East Java 88.6% At cost 1,061 Makassar South Sulawesi At cost 414 Cibubur West Java 88.6% At cost 251 Dukuh Pakis Surabaya, East Java At cost 272 Palembang South Sumatera At cost 206 Total land bank 5,160.2 Investment property Mall and office under BSDE DCF 9,752 Mall and office under PLIN 36% DCF 2,213 Total asset (Rp bn) 111,096.5 Net debts (Rp bn) 2,328.6 Sales advance (Rp bn) 4,389.5 Net asset value (Rp bn) 104,378 Discount to NAV (% ) 6 Number of shares outstanding (bn shares) 19.2 Target price (Rp/share) 2,200 2

3 Exhibit 3. Marketing sales Rp tn Exhibit 5. Contribution of development and recurring revenues in % Exhibit 7. Net gearing ratio Exhibit 9. PE band of company Residential Non residential Growth (RHS) Development Recurring 8% 11% 31% 23% 36% 35% 3 Gearing ratio Net gearing ratio (x ) sd sd mean sd sd Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Exhibit 4. Revenues Rp tn Exhibit 6. Profitability margin Exhibit 8. EBITDA coverage Exhibit 10. PE band of sector (x ) Development Recurring Growth (RHS) F Gross Operating EBITDA Net EBITDA coverage Min EBITDA coverage 1sd 19 mean sd 9-2sd 4 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 2sd Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas 3

4 Exhibit 11 - Income Statement Revenue 5,614 6,210 6,114 7,548 6,379 COGS (1,447) (1,572) (1,610) (1,842) (1,622) Gross profit 4,167 4,638 4,504 5,706 4,757 EBITDA 2,792 3,103 2,820 3,960 3,085 Oper. profit 2,664 2,901 2,582 3,684 2,758 Interest income Interest expense (385) (575) (611) (637) (562) Forex Gain/(Loss) (34) (28) 0 Income From Assoc. Co s 1, Other Income (Expenses) 57 (48) Pre-tax profit 4,304 2,715 2,243 3,326 2,519 Income tax (310) (364) (367) (289) (267) Minority interest (176) (212) (207) (335) (248) Net profit 3,818 2,139 1,669 2,702 2,004 Core Net Profit 3,789 2,001 1,704 2,730 2,004 Exhibit 12 - Balance Sheet Cash & cash equivalent 2,820 6,109 5,644 5,455 4,417 Receivables Inventory 5,016 6,548 6,620 6,926 7,217 Other Curr. Asset 2,493 3,283 3,786 4,673 3,950 Fixed assets - Net Other non-curr.asset 16,432 18,429 20,125 21,816 23,162 Total asset 28,207 36,022 37,904 40,693 40,581 ST Debt 1,523 2,055 1,348 2,395 1,158 Payables Other Curr. Liabilities 3,754 3,774 3,949 4,289 4,085 Long Term Debt 2,784 5,869 6,886 5,389 5,231 Other LT. Liabilities 1,549 1,910 1,849 2,169 1,966 Total Liabilities 9,767 13,925 14,352 14,608 12,762 Shareholder's Funds 15,349 18,850 20,304 22,839 24,572 Minority interests 3,092 3,247 3,247 3,247 3,247 Total Equity & Liabilities 28,207 36,022 37,904 40,693 40,581 See important disclosure at the back of this report

5 Exhibit 13 - Cash Flow Net income 3,818 2,139 1,669 2,702 2,004 Depreciation and Amort Change in Working Capital (1,004) (2,171) (461) (862) 228 Other Oper. Cash Flow (459) (259) Operating Cash Flow 2,488 (94) 1,654 2,643 2,825 Capex (513) (955) (803) (843) (883) Others Inv. Cash Flow (4,574) (364) (827) (767) (786) Investing Cash Flow (5,087) (1,319) (1,629) (1,609) (1,669) Net change in debt 164 3, (129) (1,350) New Capital Dividend payment (317) (383) (214) (167) (271) Other Fin. Cash Flow 1,275 1,591 (392) (927) (574) Financing Cash Flow 1,123 4,701 (490) (1,223) (2,195) Net Change in Cash (1,477) 3,289 (465) (189) (1,039) Cash - begin of the year 4,297 2,820 6,109 5,644 5,455 Cash - end of the year 2,820 6,109 5,644 5,455 4,417 Exhibit 14 - Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Growth (%) Sales (2.2) 10.6 (1.5) 23.5 (15.5) EBITDA (7.0) 11.1 (9.1) 40.5 (22.1) Operating profit (8.4) 8.9 (11.0) 42.7 (25.1) Net profit 41.9 (44.0) (22.0) 61.8 (25.8) Profitability (%) Gross margin EBITDA margin Operating margin Net margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Gearing (x) Interest Coverage (%) Source : BSDE, Danareksa Estimates 5