Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI IJ)

Transcription

1 Equity Research Monthly Result Wednesday,27 June 2018 BUY Maintain Last price (IDR) 7,150 Target Price (IDR) 10,400 Upside/Downside +45.5% Previous Target Price (IDR) 10,400 Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg Ticker Banking BBNI IJ No of Shrs (mn) 18,649 Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 133,338/9,404 Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 194.9/13.7 Major shareholders (%) Government of Indonesia 60.0 Estimated free float 40.9 EPSConsensus (IDR) 2018F 2019F 2020F Danareksa ,148.1 Consensus ,073.1 Danareksa/Cons (1.2) BBNI relative to JCI Index Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI IJ) Gradual pickup in loans We reiterate our BUY call on BBNI with a GGMderived TP of IDR10,400 (implying 1.74x 2018F P/BV) following the release of the 5M18 results that were broadly inline with our forecast. Loans grew at a faster pace of 12.4% yoy in May 2018 (vs March 2018: 10.8%) while customer deposits grew by 15.4% yoy driven mainly by CASA deposits. The credit cost remains manageable at 188bps due to more manageable assets quality in our view. We assume a 5.1% NIM given an estimated 37bps fall in the assets yield to 7.8%. 5M18 P&L highlights. The net profits of IDR5.3tn (bank only) are inline with our forecast and the seasonal pattern as the 5M results were % of the full year figure in the past two years. NIM expanded by c.40bps on a yoy basis to 5.9% due to higher asset yields at 8.6% (5M17: 8.3%). The credit cost declined to 188bps from 195bps in 5M17 as the pressure on assets quality eased. All in all, we maintain our forecast of a 156bps credit cost and 14.2% net profits growth in FY18F. 5M18 balance sheet highlights. In the bank s earning assets mix, gross loans grew at a higher rate of 12.4% yoy (vs Mar18 yoy: 10.8%). We expect loans to grow by 13.7% by the end of the year given stronger expected demand for loans in 2H. Marketable securities (as the excess liquidity instruments) jumped by 17.8% yoy to IDR91.0tn as of May 2018, while loans demand was soft during the month of Ramadhan. Customer deposits, meanwhile, expanded by 15.4% yoy driven by 24.3% yoy CASA deposits growth in May As such, the contribution from CASA deposits rose to 64.1% of total customer deposits as of May 2018 (vs May 2017: 59.5%). Expectation of a lower NIM. Given the bank s significant exposure to corporate lending, particularly for the development of infrastructure projects, we expect the assets yield to decline further by 37bps to 7.8% this year. The blended CoF, meanwhile, will improve to 2.9% on the back of a higher proportion of CASA deposits at 64.2% of total customer deposits by the end of the year. All in all, we expect the NIM to fall by c.30bps to 5.1% in Maintain BUY with a new TP of IDR10,400. We maintain our BUY call on BBNI with a GGMderived TP of IDR10,400 assuming 10% CoE, 15.3% sustainable ROAE and 3% longterm growth. Source : Bloomberg Eka Savitri (6221) ext 3506 eka.savitri@danareksa.co.id Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F PPOP (IDRbn) 22,082 24,349 27,018 30,751 35,026 Net profit (IDRbn) 11,339 13,616 15,553 18,009 21,411 EPS (IDR) ,148.1 EPS growth (%) BVPS (IDR) 4, , , , ,645.1 PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROAE (%) Source : BBNI, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 1

2 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Jul16 Jan17 Jul17 Jan18 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Jul16 Jan17 Jul17 Jan18 Exhibit 1. Loans and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Interest Income and Growth Exhibit 3. NIM and LDR Exhibit 4. NPLs Exhibit 5. PBV ROAE Band Chart 2.50 x % Exhibit 6. PE Band Chart Fwd P/BV Mean +1SD 1SD ROAE (RHS) Fwd P/E Mean +1SD 1SD See important disclosure at the back of this report 2

3 Exhibit 7. BBNI s 5M18 result (IDR bn unless stated) 5M18 5M17 yoy % FY18F A/F Interest income 20,035 17, , Interest expenses 6,777 6, , Net Interest Income 13,258 11, , Other op. Income 4,613 4, , Opex 8,011 7, , PPOP 9,860 9, , Provisions 3,379 3, , PBT 6,717 6, , Net Profit 5,374 4, , NIM (%) CoF (%) CIR (%) CoC (bps) ROAE (%) Assets 682, , Securities 90,958 77, Loans 421, , CASA 312, , Customer deposits 487, , Interbanks 13,737 13, Borrowings 48,481 33, Equity 93,095 85, Source : Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 3

4 Exhibit 8. Income Statement Interest Income 43,768 48,178 53,055 59,348 65,713 Interest Expense (13,773) (16,240) (18,105) (19,886) (21,944) Net Interest Income 29,995 31,938 34,950 39,462 43,770 NonInterest Income (NII) 10,702 12,592 15,171 17,866 21,495 Oper. Income 40,697 44,530 50,121 57,328 65,265 Oper. Expenses (19,217) (20,863) (23,103) (26,577) (30,238) Preprovisions profit 22,082 24,349 27,018 30,751 35,026 Provisions & Allowances (7,853) (7,126) (7,348) (7,969) (7,940) Operating Profits 14,229 17,223 19,669 22,782 27,087 NonOperating Income 74 (57) (6) Exceptionals Pretax Profit 14,303 17,165 19,694 22,797 27,080 Income Tax (2,893) (3,395) (3,939) (4,559) (5,416) Minorities (71) (154) (202) (229) (253) Net Profit 11,339 13,616 15,553 18,009 21,411 Exhibit 9. Balance Sheet Gross Loans 393, , , , ,881 Provisions (16,681) (14,524) (15,718) (16,580) (17,969) Net Loans 376, , , , ,912 Govt. Bonds 63,006 79,849 64,182 51,602 41,500 Securities 23,765 36,050 54,075 69,224 89,991 Other Earnings Assets Total Earnings Assets 545, , , , ,386 Fixed Assets 28,426 30,205 31,921 33,031 34,684 NonEarnings Assets 9,824 13,322 10,995 11,550 10,709 Total Assets 603, , , ,415 1,040,593 Customer Deposits 415, , , , ,288 Banks Deposits 9,735 11,683 12,163 12,810 13,578 Int. Bearing Liab. Others 497, , , , ,027 Total Liabilities 513, , , , ,027 Share capital & Reserves 36,359 38,279 38,279 38,279 38,279 Retained Earnings 50,798 60,314 72,756 87, ,291 Shareholders' Funds 87,157 98, , , ,570 Minority interests 2,097 2,311 2,513 2,742 2,995 Total Equity & Liabilities 603, , , ,415 1,040,593 See important disclosure at the back of this report 4

5 Exhibit 10. Ratios Yield on Earning Assets Cost of funds Interest Spread Net Interest Margin Cost/Income Ratio Oper. Exp./Oper. Gross Inc Gross NPL Ratio LLP/Gross NPL Cost of Credit Loan to Deposit Ratio Loan to Funding Ratio CASA Mix ROAE ROAA CAR Exhibit 11.Dupont and growth Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Dupont PreTax ROAA Tax Retention rate PostTax ROAA Goodwil, Assoc& Min Leverage ROAE Growth (%) Interest income Net Interest Income Other Oper. Expenses Fee Based Income PreProvision Oper. Profit Net Profit Shareholders Equity Loan Earnings Asset Deposit Int. Bearing Liab CASA Total Asset Source : BBNI, Danareksa Estimates