Waskita Beton Precast(WSBP IJ)
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- Patrick Fisher
- 5 years ago
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1 Equity Research Company Update Monday,20 August 2018 BUY Maintain Waskita Beton Precast(WSBP IJ) Looking for more external works Last price (IDR) 382 Target Price (IDR) 500 Upside/Downside +30.9% Previous Target Price (IDR) 580 Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg Ticker Construction WSBP IJ No of Shrs (mn) 24,516 Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 9,365/642 Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 35.5/2.4 Major shareholders (%) Waskita Karya 60.0 Public 40.0 Estimated free float 40.0 EPS Consensus (IDR) 2018F 2019F 2020F Danareksa Consensus Danareksa/Cons (14.3) (21.7) (10.6) WSBP relative to JCI Index Source : Bloomberg x Maria Renata (62-21) ext.3513 maria.renata@danareksa.com The management has slashed its 2018 targets in accordance with its parent company, Waskita Karya (WSKT). The new contracts target is cut by 28% resulting in a moderate management earnings growth target of 10%yoy. The turnkey projects accounted for 43% of the order book which stood at IDR16.9tn as of Jun 18. Consequently, we lower our 2018 earnings target by 20%, translating into flattish estimated earnings growth of 4.2%yoy. BUY call maintained with a lower TP of IDR500 (old: IDR580). We revise down our 2018 targets. The management has cut its 2018 targets given the lower management targets of its parent company, Waskita Karya (WSKT). WSBP s performance is strongly correlated to WSKT s since around 80% of its order book comes from within the Waskita Group. The management s new contracts target for 2018 was cut by 28% to IDR8.3tn (- 24.8%yoy, FY17: IDR11.0tn) resulting in 23% and 25% lower revenues and net income targets. The management s new revenues target is set at IDR7.5tn (+5.6%yoy, FY17: IDR7.1tn), while its net income target is set at IDR1.1tn (+10.0%yoy, FY17: IDR1.0tn). Trying to obtain more external works. WSBP expects its external contracts to increase gradually in the future. In 2018, the portion of external contracts is targeted to increase to 30% from 20% in 2017, and then reach 40% in By 2020, around 50% of the order book is targeted to be made up of external contracts. WSBP is optimistic the targets can be achieved thanks to the government s high infrastructure budget allocation. 7M18 new contracts. New contracts as of Jul 18 reached IDR3.9tn, or 47% of the new target. Most contracts are for toll road projects. The three biggest projects are: the Cibitung Cilincing toll road worth IDR1.1tn, the Tebing Tinggi Indrapura toll road worth IDR325bn, and the Terbangi Besar Kayu Agung toll road worth IDR245bn. As such, the order book as of Jul 18 reached IDR16.9tn, including IDR13.0tn of carry over contracts. WSBP owns IDR7.3tn of turnkey projects. WSBP has three projects under the turnkey scheme with a total value of IDR7.3tn. KLBM is the largest turnkey project owned by WSBP worth IDR3.5tn, followed by Cimanggis Cibitung (IDR2.6tn) and Becakayu section 1A (IDR1.2tn). Turnkey projects account for 43% of the order book. Payment is targeted 3-6 months after project completion. Maintain BUY. We cut our new contracts target by 30% to IDR8.0tn, resulting in 18% and 20% lower revenues and net income targets. Our revenues and net income targets are in-line with the management s (1% and 5% lower, respectively). We maintain our historical average 2018 PE target of 11.0x and arrive at a new TP of IDR500 due to the lower earnings target. WSBP trades at an attractive valuation of 2018 PE of 9.0x (at its -1SD PE), lower than the IPO s 21.2x. Maintain BUY. Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue (IDRbn) 4,717 7,104 7,404 8,456 9,577 EBITDA (IDRbn) 1,130 1,530 1,641 1,871 2,138 EBITDA Growth (%) Net profit (IDRbn) 635 1,000 1,043 1,149 1,348 EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) BVPS (IDR) DPS (IDR) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Source : WSBP, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
2 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Exhibit 1. Revenues and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Profits and Growth Exhibit 3. Margins Exhibit 4. Gearing Level Exhibit 7. PE Band Chart Exhibit 6. Share Price Chart SD: 15.5x +1SD: 13.3x Avg.: 11.2x -1SD: 9.0x -2SD: 6.8x X 12.0X 10.0X 8.0X 6.0X Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 2
3 Exhibit 7. Changes in our Forecasts Old New Chg (%) New contracts 11,500 12,650 8,000 9, % -24.1% Carry over 14,104 16,576 14,104 14, % -11.3% Order book 25,604 29,226 22,104 24, % -16.9% Revenues 9,028 11,218 7,404 8, % -24.6% Gross profit 2,311 2,603 1,940 2, % -18.1% Op.profit 1,966 2,277 1,641 1, % -17.8% Net profit 1,302 1,524 1,043 1, % -24.6% GPM (%) 25.6% 23.2% 26.2% 25.2% 0.6% 2.0% OPM (%) 21.8% 20.3% 22.2% 22.1% 0.4% 1.8% NPM (%) 14.4% 13.6% 14.1% 13.6% -0.3% 0.0% Source: Danareksa Sekuritas estimate See important disclosure at the back of this report 3
4 Exhibit 8. Income Statement Revenue 4,717 7,104 7,404 8,456 9,577 COGS (3,498) (5,156) (5,465) (6,325) (7,164) Gross profit 1,219 1,948 1,940 2,131 2,413 EBITDA 1,130 1,530 1,641 1,871 2,138 Oper. profit 1,130 1,530 1,641 1,871 2,138 Interest income Interest expense (214) (462) (420) (508) (520) Forex Gain/(Loss) Income From Assoc. Co s Other Income (Expenses) (6) Pre-tax profit 967 1,156 1,303 1,414 1,670 Income tax (333) (156) (261) (265) (321) Minority interest Net profit 635 1,000 1,043 1,149 1,348 Core Net Profit 635 1,000 1,043 1,149 1,348 Exhibit 9. Balance Sheet Cash & cash equivalent 4,206 1, ,130 Receivables 6,215 8,721 8,575 9,306 7,642 Inventory Other Curr. Asset ,012 Fixed assets - Net 1,933 3,149 4,031 4,864 5,647 Other non-curr.asset ,007 Total asset 13,734 14,920 14,752 16,543 18,185 ST Debt 1,907 4,988 3,095 3,742 3,831 Payables 2,434 2,318 2,246 2,426 3,140 Other Curr. Liabilities Long Term Debt 1, ,326 1,604 1,642 Other LT. Liabilities Total Liabilities 6,329 7,603 7,143 8,307 9,175 Shareholder'sFunds 7,406 7,317 7,609 8,236 9,010 Minority interests Total Equity & Liabilities 13,734 14,920 14,752 16,543 18,185 See important disclosure at the back of this report 4
5 Exhibit 10. Cash Flow Net income 635 1,000 1,043 1,149 1,348 Depreciation and Amort Change in Working Capital (5,345) (2,372) (868) (715) 2,176 OtherOper. Cash Flow 1, (304) Operating Cash Flow (2,690) (310) 871 1,172 3,536 Capex (828) (841) (665) (566) (467) Others Inv. Cash Flow Investing Cash Flow (788) (750) (583) (516) (416) Net change in debt 2, New Capital 5,819 (776) Dividend payment (379) (317) (750) (521) (574) Other Fin. Cash Flow (214) (459) (420) (508) (520) Financing Cash Flow 7,820 (1,370) (289) (104) (967) Net Change in Cash 4,342 (2,429) (1) 551 2,153 Cash - begin of the year 98 4,206 1, Cash - end of the year 4,206 1, ,130 Exhibit 11. Key Ratios Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Growth (%) Sales EBITDA Operating profit Net profit Profitability (%) Gross margin EBITDA margin Operating margin Net margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Gearing (x) (0.1) Interest Coverage (x) Source : WSBP, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 5
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