Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)

Transcription

1 Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) BUY (Unchanged) 26 November 2014 Company Update Equity Indonesia Property StockData Target price (Rp) Rp1,420 Prior TP (Rp) Rp1,270 Shareprice (Rp) Rp1,140 Upside/downside (%) Sharesoutstanding (m) 22,772 Marketcap. (US$ m) 2,134 Free float (%) 82.1 Avg. 6m dailyt/o (US$ m) 7.6 Price Performance 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) Relative to JCI (%) whigh/low (Rp) 1,295/ Nov 25Feb 25May 25Aug 25Nov JCI LPKR Major Shareholders Lippo Related Companies 27.7% Estimate Change; Vs. Consensus 2014F 2015F Latest EPS (Rp) Vs. Prior EPS (%) Vs. Consensus (%) (17.1) (1.7) Source: Bloomberg, IndoPremier Beating own guidance On track to beat own property sales guidance Diversified product range offers stability and growth Strong presales to underpin earnings growth in FY1316F Maintain BUY with higher TP of Rp1,420 FY14F marketing sales; exceeding target. Lippo Karawaci (LPKR) booked strong 3Q14 marketing sales of Rp2.2tn, mostly generated from Cikarang s industrial sales to Delta Silicon 8 (a JV with Japanese investors) and apartments in Karawaci (Millenium Village). To bolster sales, the company has offered attractive payment methods (4, 5 and 10 year installments) to prospective buyers with limited access to bank loans. The company has also continued its aggressive apartment launches in Holland Village (Central Jakarta) and Embarcaderro, which should bring additional marketing sales up to Rp800bn. These recent launches and the apartment launch in Cikarang (Orange County) should pave the way for LPKR to exceed its FY14 marketing sales target of Rp4.7tn. Steady growth through various property products. LPKR offers various property products, ranging from industrial to landed/highrise residential, including cemetery plots, as well as commercial (malls, lease offices) and healthcare. The various products/services offered by the company have diversified its revenue stream, which we expect to sustain earnings growth ahead. Solid FY1516F earnings. We estimate LPKR to book solid FY1316F top line CAGR of 20%, supported by the accumulation of FY12September 2014 marketing sales totalling Rp12.6tn and growing healthcare revenue. Higher property selling prices should also support gross margin improvement in FY1516F to around 47%, and allow the company to book FY1516F bottom line of Rp1.59tn and Rp1.85tn, respectively, we estimate. However, for FY1415F, increasing financing costs may curb margin improvement. We estimate the company will book solid earnings CAGR of 15% in FY1316F. Maintain BUY with higher TP of Rp1,420. In September 2014, the company monetized its 151ksqm Kemang Village Mall by selling this to LMIR Trust (LMRTSP Not Rated SGD 0.37), with the aim of booking additional revenue and bottom line of Rp3tn and Rp1.25tn in 4Q14 1Q15. Several new projects in the pipeline (Kemang Antasari, Office in Thamrin and a superblock in Manado) and continued development of its five mixedused projects will help sustain LPKR s 2015 marketing sales growth, we believe. We maintain our BUY recommendation on LPKR with a higher TP of Rp1,420, based on a discount to RNAV/share of Rp2,365. Risks to our recommendation and forecasts: (1) slow marketing sales in 1H15; (2) higher interest rates. Natalia Sutanto PT Indo Premier Securities natalia.sutanto@ipc.co.id Year To 31 Dec 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue(RpBn) 6,160 6,666 8,635 10,033 11,619 EBITDA(RpBn) 1,661 1,837 2,497 2,900 3,373 EBITDA Growth (%) Net Profit(RpBn) 1,060 1,228 1,443 1,592 1,847 EPS (Rp) EPS Growth (%) Net Gearing (%) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Share Price Closing as of : 25November2014

2 Fig. 1: Marketing sales, F (Rpbn) Fig. 2: Quarterly marketing sales, 3Q133Q14 (Rpbn) 5,000 4,500 4,000 4,684 4,114 4,700 2,500 2,216 3,500 3,000 3,178 1,500 2,500 1,500 1,000 1, , F 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Source : LPKR Fig. 3: Revenue contribution, F Fig. 4: Revenue and net profit, F (Rpbn) Landed/high rise Healthcare Hotels, fee based, other Revenue Net profit 100% 80% 60% 20% 39% 46% 45% 47% 53% 1 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 4, ,033 8,635 6,160 6,666 1,060 1,228 1,443 1,592 0% F 2015F F 2015F Fig. 5: Gearing ratio, F Fig. 6: Share price performance 65% 60% 50% 45% 35% 30% 59% 52% F 2015F 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 7.2% 7.3% 6.7% 5.6% 0.6% YTD 1 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 12 Mo Source : Bloomberg 2

3 Year To 31 Dec (RpBn) 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Income Statement Net Revenue 6,160 6,666 8,635 10,033 11,619 Cost of Sales (3,339) (3,620) (4,541) (5,276) (6,098) Gross Profit 2,821 3,047 4,095 4,757 5,521 SG&A Expenses (1,344) (1,534) (1,900) (2,208) (2,556) Operating Profit 1,477 1,512 2,195 2,550 2,965 Net Interest 2 (27) (101) (125) (127) Forex Gain (Loss) 108 (33) OthersNet (10) PreTax Income 1,577 1,925 2,319 2,584 2,996 Income Tax (254) (332) (447) (520) (602) Minorities (263) (364) (428) (472) (548) Net Income 1,060 1,228 1,443 1,592 1,847 Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalent 3,337 1,855 1,296 1,990 1,497 Receivable ,000 1,161 1,345 Inventory 10,505 13,894 17,998 18,821 20,584 Other Current Assets 1,531 2,180 1,632 1,656 1,917 Total Current Assets 15,967 18,701 21,926 23,628 25,343 Fixed Assets Net 3,454 4,729 6,281 8,642 10,711 Goodwill Non Current Assets Total Assets 24,869 31,300 36,979 41,169 45,101 ST Loans 1, Payable Other Payables 5,385 6,955 9,413 11,813 13,680 Current Portion of LT Loans Total Current Liab. 7,163 8,134 10,839 13,325 15,288 Long Term Loans 4,811 7,027 8,199 8,218 8,226 Other LT Liab. 1,425 1,962 2,591 3,010 3,486 Total Liabilities 13,399 17,123 21,629 24,553 26,999 Equity 6,866 8,052 8,052 8,052 8,052 Retained Earnings 3,790 4,748 5,879 7,104 8,545 Minority Interest 814 1,377 1,418 1,461 1,504 Total SHE + Minority Int. 11,470 14,178 15,350 16,617 18,102 Total Liabilities & Equity 24,869 31,300 36,979 41,169 45,101 3

4 Year to 31 Dec 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Cash Flow Net Profit 1,323 1,592 1,871 2,064 2,394 Depr.& Amortization Changes in Working Capital (2,958) (4,245) (2,337) 845 (1,405) Others 455 1,359 1, Cash Flow From Operating (996) (969) 1,165 3,886 1,652 Capital Expenditure (560) (1,828) (1,955) (2,811) (2,593) Others (1,872) (2,126) (607) Cash Flow From Investing (2,432) (3,954) (2,562) (2,745) (2,523) Loans 2,261 1,793 1, Equity Dividends (178) (270) (313) (368) (405) Others 1,589 2, Cash Flow From Financing 3,672 3,656 1,343 (132) (137) Changes in Cash 244 (1,267) (54) 1,009 (1,008) FinancialRatios Gross Margin (%) Operating Margin (%) PreTax Margin (%) Net Margin (%) ROA (%) ROE (%) ROIC (%) Acct. Receivables TO (days) Acct. Receivables Other TO (days) Inventory TO (days) Payable TO (days) Acct. Payables Other TO (days) Debt to Equity (%) Interest Coverage Ratio (x) Net Gearing (%)

5 Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SECURITIES WismaGKBI 7/F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta Indonesia p f Institutional Equity & Private Client Benny B. Soebagjo Head of Equities benny.soebagjo@ipc.co.id Angkula Ruriawan Equity Sales angkula.ruriawan@ipc.co.id Alexander Salim Equity Sales alexander.salim@ipc.co.id Edward Azizy Equity Sales edazizy@ipc.co.id Henry Sutanto Equity Sales henry.sutanto@ipc.co.id Isna Alfiathi Equity Sales isna.alfiathi@ipc.co.id Angky Amarylis Sales Trader angky.amarylis@ipc.co.id Thomas Samuil Sales Trader thomas.samuil@ipc.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12month period HOLD : Expected total return between 10% and 10% within a 12month period SELL : Expected total return of 10% or worse within a 12month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Securities or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.