Outlook for the Norwegian economy

Transcription

1 .9.9 Outlook for the Norwegian economy Governor Svein Gjedrem, Norges Bank, September 9 Indicator for world trade -month change. Per cent. January July 9 Manufacturing production Growth in past months. Per cent. January July US Euro area Norway Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

2 .9.9 Credit default risk for selected banks Measured by CDS spreads. Basis points January September 9 Money market premiums ) -day moving average Percentage points January September 9 Citigroup JP Morgan Norway US Euro area 9 9 ) Expected key rates are derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank International equity markets January September 9 Equity prices Index. January = Implied volatility Standard deviation in basis points -day moving average Euro area US Euro area US 9 9 Source: Thomson Reuters

3 .9.9 Oil price (Brent Blend) USD per barrel. Daily figures January April Commodity prices In USD. Index, week = Week week 9 Spot Food Copper Aluminium Metals Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank OPEC spare production capacity Million barrels per day. Monthly figures. Jan. Dec. Inventories of crude oil and refined products in US Billion barrels. Jan. Sept. 9 Spare capacity Projections EIA Min-max - 9 Average - Jan Apr Jul Oct Source: EIA

4 .9.9 Effective exchange rates ) Indexed =. Weekly figures. Week Week 9 Australia New Zealand Canada Norway 9 ) A rising curve denotes a stronger exchange rate. Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Norges Bank Real exchange rates Deviation from mean9. Per cent. 9 9 ) Relative consumer prices Relative wages ) Data for 9 based on observation in period to 9 September. Squares show average for this period. A rising curve indicates weaker competitiveness Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

5 .9.9 Actual and expected key rates ) Per cent. January December US Euro area Norway UK Jan- Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- )As of September 9 Sources: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank 9 Inflation Twelve-month change. Per cent US Euro area Trading partners Norway Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Ban

6 .9.9 Inflation -year moving average ) and variation ) in CPI ). Per cent. 9 9 Variation CPI Inflation target ) The moving average is calculated years back and years ahead. ) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation. ) Estimate based on projection for 9 from MPR /9. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Inflation Actual and projections from MPR /9 (broken line). -month change Per cent. January September 9 CPI CPIXE Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

7 .9.9 Countercyclical policy with unconventional measures Expansive fiscal policy Low key rate Extraordinary monetary policy meassures Swap arrangement Liquidity supply Other extraordinary measures Norwegian State Finance Fund Norwegian State Bond Fund Export finance Costs for money market funding and long-term funding Per cent. Weekly figures. Week week 9 9 Difference between -month 9 money market rate and key policy rate Key policy rate Premium on long-term funding (-year bank bond) ) Price in swap arrangement ) Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr- Sep- Feb-9 Jul-9 ) Maturity-adjusted price ) -year bank bonds issued by banks with total assets of NOK - billion and a BBB+ rating 9 Sources: DnB NOR Markets and Norges Bank

8 .9.9 Banking sector liquidity Billions of NOK Norges Bank's liquidity supply Structural liquidity Projections Banks' deposits in Norges Bank Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr- Sep- Feb-9 Jul-9 Dec-9 Source: Norges Bank Government net assets as share of GDP Per cent US Japan Sweden - - Norway Finland Source: OECD

9 .9.9 Export Seasonally adjusted quarterly figures, external trade in goods. Quarterly growth. Volume. Per cent. Q 9 Q Jan- May- Sep- Jan- May- Sep- Jan-9 - Source: Statistics Norway Index of commodity consumption Volume. Seasonally adjusted index January July 9 Spending on services and hotel occupancy rate -quarter change. Per cent Q 9 Q Spending on services (left-hand scale) Hotel occupancy (right-hand scale) Sources: Statistics Norway 9

10 .9.9 Petroleum investment Annual volume growth. Per cent. ) 9 ) Projections for 9 - Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 9 Norges Banks Regional Network Established in. REGION NORTH-WEST Møreforsking Molde Molde REGION SOUTH-WEST International Research Institute of Stavanger Stavanger REGION NORTH Kunnskapsparken Bodø Bodø REGION CENTRAL NORWAY Centre for Economic Research at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology REGION INLAND Østlandsforskning Lillehammer REGION EAST Norges Bank REGION SOUTH Agderforskning Kristiansand Important t part of decision- i making basis for Norges Bank s Executive Board in conduct of monetary policy. Accurate projections possible long before official statistics are available. Next report available October. Source: Norges Bank

11 .9.9 Registered unemployment Per cent. Seasonally adjusted. Januar y999 August 9 Norway Oslo Akershus 9 Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank Work permits UDI In thousands. Unadjusted. January August 9 Population growth and net immigration In thousands. 9-9 ) All permits Population growth 9 ) First half of 9 population growth: 9 and net immigration: 9 Only new EEA countries - Net immigration Sources: Norwegian Directorate of Immigration (UDI), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

12 .9.9 Regional house prices -month change. Per cent. January - august Oslo Norway Akershus Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, ECON Pöyry, Finn.no, and Norges Bank - Bank credit standards for businesses and households Q 9 Q. Change in credit standards since previous period ) 9 9 Businesses Households Easing - Tightening Q Q Q Q Q 9 Q 9 Q 9 Q Q Q Q Q Q 9 Q 9 Q 9 Q -9 ) Red diamonds indicate expected developments, and blue bars indicate actual developments Source: Norges Bank

13 .9.9 Indicative credit spreads between corporate and government bonds -year bonds. Compared with swap rates. Percentage points. Weekly figures. Week week Interest margin and lending rates to firms Percentage points. Quarterly figures. December July 9 Interest margin firms Lending rates to firms 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and DnB NOR Markets Key policy rate Actual developments and projection. Per cent. Alternative with higher demand, MPR /9 MPR /9 9 Source: Norges Bank

14 .9.9 Outlook for the Norwegian economy Governor Svein Gjedrem, Norges Bank, September 9