Chart 1.1 GDP. Seasonally adjusted volume index Q1= Q Q4 110

Transcription

1 Chart. GDP. Seasonally adjusted volume index. 8 Q=. 8 Q Q US Euro area UK Sweden Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

2 Chart. GDP for trading partners. Volume. Four quarter change. Percent. Q 8 Q ) MPR / MPR / MPR / MPR / MPR / 7 8 ) Projections at different points in time (broken lines). Projections from Q for MPR /. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

3 Chart. Consumer prices. Twelve month change. Percent. January February ) US Euro area UK Sweden ) To end January for US and UK. Source: Thomson Reuters

4 Chart. Policy rates and estimated forward rates at December and March. ) Percent. January December 8 ) US Euro area ) UK Sweden 7 8 ) Broken lines show estimated forward rates at December. Thin lines show forward rates at March. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates. ) Daily data from January and quarterly data from Q. ) EONIA for the euro area from Q. Sources: Thomson reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank

5 Chart. Yields on year government bonds. Percent. January March US Switzerland Denmark Germany Sweden UK Source: Bloomberg

6 Chart. Money market rates for trading partners. Percent. Q 8 Q. MPR / MPR / MPR / MPR / MPR /... Q Q Q Q Q Q 7Q 8Q ) Estimated forward rates at different points in time (broken lines). For MPR / forward rates from March are used Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

7 Chart.7 Yields on year government bonds. Percent. January March 7 US Norway Germany Sweden 7 UK Italy Source: Bloomberg

8 Chart.8 Crude oil prices. ) ) USD per barrel. January December Oil futures prices MPR / Oil futures prices MPR / Oil futures prices MPR / Oil futures prices MPR / Oil futures prices MPR / 7 8 ) For March the latest observation used is March. ) Projectons for MPR / are based on futures prices from March. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

9 Chart.9 Oil price and import weighted exchange rate index (I ). ) January March I (left hand scale) Projection I, MPR / Oil price (right hand scale) 8 7 ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

10 Chart. Bilateral exchange rate movements - Norwegian krone. Change in effective exchange rates. Percentage. December - March EUR Krone depreciation Krone appreciation SEK GBP USD -% -% -% % % % % Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

11 Chart. Residential mortgage lending rates ) and funding costs. Percent. January March Key policy rate Spread between money market rate and key policy rate Risk premium on year covered bonds Estimated cost of mortgage financing ) Mortgage rate ) The interest rate on lines of credit secured on dwellings provided by all banks and mortgage companies in Norway. Lending rate as measured by end quarter. ) Estimated using weighted interest rates on covered bonds outstanding and weighted deposit rates. Sources: DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

12 Chart. Norges Bank s regional network s indicator for output growth past three months and expected output growth next six months. Annualised. Percent. January 8 July ) 8 8 Aggregated Oil service industry Next six months. October Next six months. January 8 9 ) Latest observation for regional network is January. Source: Norges Bank

13 Chart. Norges Bank s regional network indicator for output growth past three months. Annualised. Percent. January 8 January 8 8 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Services 8 9 Source: Norges Bank

14 Chart. Consumer confidence. CCI adjusted for savings (Opinion) ) and the Expectations barometer (TNSG) Unadjusted net numbers 8 Q Q ) TNSG composite TNSG larger acquisitions TNSG household finances economy next year CCI adjusted for savings (right hand scale) 8 9 ) Average of subindices for household expectations as to their financial situation, the general economy and unemployment. For the CCI the average of monthly data is used as quarterly data. ) To February for CCI. Sources: TNS Gallup, Opinion and Norges Bank

15 Chart. Norges Bank s regional network s indicator for expected investment growth next twelve months. Percent. January 8 January Public sector Services Retail trade Manufacturing 8 Source: Norges Bank

16 Chart. GDP for mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM ) with fan chart. Four quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. Q Q ) GDP, mainland Norway MPR / SAM % % 7% 9% ) System for averaging short term models. ) Projections for Q Q (broken lines). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

17 Chart.7 GDP for mainland Norway ) and Norges Bank s regional network s indicator for output growth past three months and expected output growth next six months. Percent. Q Q ). GDP, mainland Norway MPR / MPR / Regional network.... ) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume. ) Latest observation regional network is January. Latest observation for GDP growth is Q. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank.

18 Chart.8 Unemployment rate. LFS ) and NAV. ) Seasonally adjusted. Percent. January 8 June ) LFS NAV NAV including employment schemes 8 9 ) Labour Force Survey. ) Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration. ) Projections for March June (broken lines). Sources: Statistics Norway, NAV and Norges Bank

19 Chart.9 Norges Bank s regional network indicator for employment growth past three months and expected growth next three months. Aggregated. Percent. January 8 April... Employment growth past three months Expected employment growth next three months. 8 9 Source: Norges Bank

20 Chart. Number of vacancies and number of unemployed. ) persons Seasonally adjusted. Q Q 8 Vacancies 7 Unemployed ) Registered unemployed. Sources: Statistics Norway, NAV and Norges Bank

21 Chart. Capacity constraints and labour availability ) as reported by Norges Bank s regional network. Percent. January 8 January Capacity constraints Labour availability ) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply. Source: Norges Bank

22 Chart. Wages. Annual growth. Percent. 99 ) 7 Real wages Consumer prices ) Projections for. Sources: TBU, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

23 Chart. CPI and CPI ATE. ) Twelve month change. Percent. January June ) CPI CPI ATE ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. ) Projections for March June (broken lines). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

24 Chart. CPI ATE. ) Total and by supplier sector. Twelve month change. Percent. January June ). CPI ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services ) Projections MPR /.. ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. ) Projections for March June (broken lines). ) Norges Bank s estimates. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank.

25 Chart. Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Percent. ) ) Projections for and. Source: Norges Bank.

26 Chart. CPI ATE ). Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM ) with fan chart. Four quarter change. Percent. Q Q )..... CPI ATE MPR / SAM % % 7% 9%..... ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy prices. ) System for averaging short term models. ) Projections for Q Q (broken lines). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

27 Chart.7 Structural non oil deficit and % of the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG). Constant prices. In billions of NOK. 8 ) Structural non oil deficit % of GPFG ) Projections for 8. Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

28 Chart.8 Petroleum investment. Volume. Annual change. Percent. 8 8 ) MPR / MPR / 8 7 ) Projections for 8. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

29 Chart.9 Petroleum investment. Constant prices. In billions of NOK. 8 ) Fields in production Field development Exploration Shutdown and removal Pipelines and onshore activities ) Projections for 8. Value figures from the investment intentions survey are deflated by the price index for petroleum investment in the national accounts. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

30 Chart. Field development. Constant prices. In billions of NOK. 9 8 ) Projects initiated before 7 Johan Sverdrup (phase and ) Maria, Vette and Zidane Snorre and Johan Castberg Other new developments ) Projections for 8. Value figures from the investment intentions survey are deflated by the price index for petroleum investment in the national accounts. The projections are based on the investment intentions survey for Q, the projections in The Shelf from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Storting Propositions relating to projects commenced prior to, impact assessments of new projects and current information on deferrals and assumed project commencements. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

31 Chart. year moving average ) and variation ) in CPI. Annual change. Percent. 98 Variation Inflation target CPI ) The moving average is calculated years back. ) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI in the average period, measured by +/ one standard deviation. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

32 Chart. Expected consumer price inflation and years ahead. ) Percent. 8 Q Q Expected inflation years ahead Expected inflation years ahead ) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists in the financial industry and academia. Sources: TNS Gallup, Opinion and Epinion

33 Chart. Expected output growth next six months in Norges Bank s regional network. Annualised. Percent August Construction October January Export industry Domestically Oil industry oriented suppliers industry Household services Commercial services Retail trade Source: Norges Bank

34 Chart.a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Percent. 8 Q 8 Q ) 7 7 % % 7% 9% ) Projections for Q 8 Q (broken line). Source: Norges Bank

35 Chart.b Projected output gap ) in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Percent. 8 Q 8 Q % % 7% 9% ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP. Source: Norges Bank

36 Chart.c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q 8 Q ) % % 7% 9% ) Projections for Q 8 Q (broken line). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

37 Chart.d Projected CPI ATE ) in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q 8 Q ) % % 7% 9% ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. ) Projections for Q 8 Q (broken line). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

38 Chart. Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario. Percent. January 8 December /8 /8 MPR / /8 MPR / /7 MPR / 7 Dec 8 /9 / /9 /9 / / / / / / / // / / / / / / / / Source: Norges Bank

39 Chart. Key policy rate, three month money market rate ), interest rate on loans to households ) and foreign money market rates in the baseline scenario. Percent. 8 Q 8 Q ) 8 8 Key policy rate 7 Lending rate, households Three month money market rate Foreign money market rates ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market. ) Average interest rate on all loans to households from banks and mortgage companies. ) Projections for Q 8 Q (broken lines). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

40 Chart.7 Inflation and output gap in the baseline scenario. Percent. 8 Q 8 Q Output gap (left hand scale) CPI ATE ) (right hand scale) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Projections for Q 8 Q (broken line). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

41 Chart.8 Three month money market rate differential between Norway ) and trading partners ) and import weighted exchange rate index I. ) January 8 December 8 ) I (left hand scale) Three month rate differential (right hand scale) Projections MPR / 8 8 ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market. ) Forward rates for trading partners from march ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate. ) Projections in MPR / for Q 8 Q (broken lines). Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

42 Chart.9 Household consumption ) and real disposable income. ) Annual change. Percent. 8 ) 8 8 Household consumption Household real disposable income ) Includes consumption for non profit organisations. Volume. ) Excluding dividend income. Including income for non profit organisations. ) Projections for 8. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

43 Chart. Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Percent ) Saving ratio Saving ratio excl. dividend income Net lending ratio excl. dividend income ) Projections for 8 (broken lines). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

44 Chart. Export market growth ) and growth in Norwegian mainland exports. Annual change. Percent. 8 8 ) Export market growth Export growth ) Export market growth is calculated as import growth among trading partners ) Projections for 8 (broken lines). Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

45 Chart. Labour costs ) relative to trading partners. ) Index. 99=. 99 Domestic currency Common currency ) Hourly labour costs in manufacturing. ) Projections for (broken lines). Sources: TBU, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

46 Chart. Household debt ) and house prices. Four quarter change. Percent. Q 8 Q ) House prices Credit ) Domestic credit to households (C). ) Projections for Q 8 Q (broken lines). Sources: Statistics Norway, Eiendom Norge, Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Norges Bank

47 Chart. Household debt ratio ) and interest burden. ) Percent. Q 8 Q ) 8 Interest burden (left hand scale) Debt ratio (right hand scale) 7 ) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Q Q. ) Interest expenses as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Q plus interest expenses. ) Projections for Q 8 Q (broken lines). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

48 Chart. Three month money market rate in the baseline scenario ) and estimated forward rates. ) Percent. 8 Q 8 Q Estimated forward rates MPR / Estimated forward rates MPR / Money market rate in the baseline scenario MPR / Money market rate in the baseline scenario MPR / ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market. ) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The red and blue bands show the highest and lowest rates in the period November December and 7 February March. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

49 Chart. Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank s average pattern of interest rate setting. ) Percent. Q Q % confidence interval Key policy rate in baseline scenario ) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and three month money market rates among trading partners, as well as the interest rate in the preceding period. The equation is estimated over the period 999 Q Q. See Norges Bank Staff Memo /8 for further discussion. Source: Norges Bank

50 Chart.7a Key policy rate. Percent. 8 Q 8 Q Criteria & Criteria,& Source: Norges Bank

51 Chart.7b Output gap. Percent. 8 Q 8 Q Criteria & Criteria,& Source: Norges Bank

52 Chart.7c CPI ATE. ) Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q 8 Q Criteria & Criteria,& ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

53 Chart.8 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR / with fan chart and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR / (orange line). Percent. 8 Q 7 Q 7 7 % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank

54 Chart.9 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR /. Cumulative contribution. Percentage points. Q 7 Q Change in interest rate forecast Demand Exchange rate Costs Foreign interest rates Q Q Q 7Q 7Q Source: Norges Bank

55 Chart. Total credit ) mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP. Percent. 97 Q Q Credit/GDP Average (97 Q Q) Crises ) The sum of C households and C non financial enterprises in mainland Norway (all non financial enterprises pre 99). C comprises C and foreign debt. Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

56 Chart. Debt held by households and non financial enterprises and mainland GDP. Four quarter growth. ) Percent. Q Q Nominal GDP, mainland Norway Debt, non financial enterprises (C) ) Debt, households (C) 8 ) Change in stock of debt at the end of the quarter. ) Sum of C non financial enterprises and foreign debt in mainland Norway. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

57 Chart. Ratio of household debt to disposable income. ) Percent. 99 Q Q Four quarter growth in disposable income ) (left hand scale) Four quarter growth in household debt ) (left hand scale) Debt ratio (right hand scale) ) Loan debt for households and non profit organisations as a percentage of disposable income, adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Q Q. ) Figures for Q and Q have been estimated on the basis of quarterly growth in disposable income after Statistics Norway s main revision. Historical data have not been revised. ) Change in stock of debt at the end of the quarter. Last observation Q. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

58 Chart. Bank ) retail lending. ) Twelve month growth. Percent. May January Repayment loans, secured on dwellings 8 Credit lines, secured on dwellings Other loans Twelve month growth 8 ) All banks and mortgage companies. ) The retail sector consists of employees, pensioners, social security recipents, students and others. The series has been break adjusted for the start of OBOS banken AS in December. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

59 Chart. Changes in credit demand and banks credit standards past quarter and expected change next quarter. ) Households. Percent. 7 Q Q 8 Change in demand past quarter Next quarter Change in credit standards past quarter Next quarter ) Negative figures denote lower demand or tighter credit standards. Source: Norges Bank

60 Chart. House prices. Twelve month change and seasonally adjusted monthly change. Percent. January February House prices, seasonally adjusted monthly change (left hand scale) House prices, twelve month change (right hand scale) Sources: Eiendom Norge, Eiendomsverdi and Finn.no

61 Chart.7 House prices relative to disposable income. Indexed. 998 Q =. 979 Q Q House prices/disposable income Average (979 Q Q) Crises Sources: Statistics Norway, Eiendom Norge, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi and Norges Bank

62 Chart.8 Sales of existing homes and homes for sale in s of dwellings. Selling times in days. Seasonally adjusted. January February 8 Existing homes sales past months (left hand scale) Selling times (left hand scale) Homes for sale on Finn.no (right hand scale) 8 Sources: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi

63 Chart.9 House prices. Selected cities. Twelve month growth. January Febuary Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Tromsø 8 Sources: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi

64 Chart. Credit from selected funding sources to Norwegian non financial enterprises. Twelve month growth. ) Percent. January January Domestic bank debt Domestic notes and bond debt Foreign debt (mainland enterprises) ) 7 9 ) Change in stock of debt. ) Growth based on transactions. To end December. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

65 Chart. Domestic credit to Norwegian non financial enterprises (C). Stocks of debt. In billions of NOK. January January 8 Banks and mortgage companies ) 8 Bonds Notes Other ) In Statistics Norway s statistics, Export Credit Norway is classified under "other sources" and Eksportfinans under "mortgage companies". The classification has been changed in the chart to include both Eksportfinans and Export Credit Norway as mortgage companies. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

66 Chart. Volume of bond issues from Norwegian registered non financial enterprises in the Norwegian bond market. In billions of NOK. Per month. January February Investment grade ) High yield ) 8 8 Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan ) Enterprises with credit rating equal to or higher than BBB. ) Enterprises with credit rating lower than BBB. Source: Stamdata

67 Chart. Changes in credit demand and banks credit standards past quarter, and expected change next quarter. ) Enterprises. Percent. 7 Q Q 8 Change in demand past quarter Next quarter Change in credit standards past quarter Next quarter ) Negative figures denote lower demand or tighter credit standards. Source: Norges Bank

68 Chart. Debt servicing capacity ) and equity ratio ) for listed companies. Percent. Q Q Debt servicing capacity 8 Equity ratio ) Pre tax profit plus depreciation and amortisation for the previous four quarters as a percentage of interest bearing debt for non financial companies included in the OBX Index (excluding Statoil). ) Equity as a percentage of assets for Norwegian registered non financial companies on Oslo Børs (excluding Statoil). Sources: Bloomberg, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

69 Chart. Real commercial property prices. ) Indexed. 998 =. 98 Q Q Real commercial property prices Average (98 Q Q) Crises ) Estimated market prices for centrally located high standard office premises in Oslo deflated by the GDP deflator for mainland Norway. Sources: Dagens Næringsliv, OPAK, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

70 Chart. Rental prices for office premises in Oslo. NOK per square metre, per year. 98 H H Prestigious, centrally located premises High standard, centrally located premises Good standard, centrally located premises Older, inefficient premises Sources: OPAK and Dagens Næringsliv

71 Chart.7 Required yield ) for prime office space in Oslo and year swap rate ). Percent. H H Required yield year swap rate 7 9 ) The required yield is based on assessments by Dagens Næringsliv s expert panel for commercial property. ) Semi annual swap rate is calculated as an average of daily rates. Sources: Dagens Næringsliv and Thomson Reuters 7

72 Chart.8 Office property values. Selected regions. Indexed. =. 8 Oslo CBD ) Oslo West and North Oslo East and South 7 Bergen Trondheim Stavanger ) CBD stands for "Central Business District". Source: Investment Property Databank

73 Chart.9 Banks ) wholesale funding as a share of total assets. Percent. 97 Q Q Wholesale funding/total assets Average (97 Q Q) Crises ) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies in Norway excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks. Source: Norges Bank

74 Chart. Decomposition of banks ) wholesale funding share. As a percentage of total assets. 99 Q Q 8 Notes in NOK Deposits from credit institutions in NOK Bonds in NOK Other debt in NOK Notes in foreign currency Deposits from credit institutions in foreign currency ) Bonds in foreign currency Other debt in foreign currency ) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies in Norway excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks. ) Deposits from credit institutions include deposits from central banks. Source: Norges Bank

75 Chart. Average risk premiums ) on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banks. Basis points. January February Risk premium new year bank bonds Risk premium outstanding bank bonds Risk premium new year covered bonds Risk premium outstanding covered bonds ) Difference against month NIBOR. Sources: Bloomberg, Stamdata, DNB Markets and Norges Bank

76 Chart. Banking groups ) Common Equity Tier (CET) capital ratios. Percent. Total assets. ) In billions of NOK. At December ) Systemically important banks The largest regional savings banks Other large banks CET requirement from July including a countercyclical buffer of percent 8 CET requirement from July including a countercyclical buffer of percent and a buffer for systemic importance of percent ) Banking groups with total assets in excess of NOK bn, excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway. ) Logarithmic scale. ) Based on the banks proposed dividends. Sources: Banking groups quarterly reports and Norges Bank

77 Chart. Common Equity Tier capital requirements in the new regulatory framework. Percent. July July Maximum countercyclical buffer Countercyclical buffer Buffer for systemically important banks Systemic risk buffer Conservation buffer Minimum requirement July July July July Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

78 Chart.a Credit gap. Total credit ) mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP. Deviation from estimated trends. Percentage points. 98 Q Q year rolling average Augmented HP filter ) One sided HP filter ) Variation Crises ) The sum of C households and C non financial enterprises in mainland Norway (all non financial enterprises pre 99). C comprises C and foreign debt. ) One sided Hodrick Prescott filter estimated on data augmented with a simple projection. Lambda =. ) One sided Hodrick Prescott filter. Lambda =. Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

79 Chart.b House price gap. House prices relative to disposable income. Deviation from estimated trends. Percent. 98 Q Q Recursive average Augmented HP filter ) One sided HP filter ) Variation Crises ) One sided Hodrick Prescott filter estimated on data augmented with a simple projection. Lambda =. ) One sided Hodrick Prescott filter. Lambda =. Sources: Statistics Norway, Eiendom Norge, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi and Norges Bank

80 Chart.c Commercial property price gap. Real commercial property prices ) as deviation from estimated trends. Percent. 98 Q Q 8 Recursive average Augmented HP filter ) One sided HP filter ) 8 Variation Crises ) Estimated market prices for office premises in Oslo deflated by the GDP deflator for mainland Norway. ) One sided Hodrick Prescott filter estimated on data augmented with a simple projection. Lambda =. ) One sided Hodrick Prescott filter. Lambda =. Sources: Dagens Næringsliv, OPAK, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

81 Chart.d Wholesale funding gap. Banks ) wholesale funding as a share of total assets. Deviation from estimated trends. Percentage points. 98 Q Q year rolling average Augmented HP filter ) One sided HP filter ) Variation Crises ) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies in Norway excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks. ) One sided Hodrick Prescott filter estimated on data augmented with a simple projection. Lambda =. ) One sided Hodrick Prescott filter. Lambda =. Source: Norges Bank

82 Chart. Estimated crisis probabilities from various model specifications. 98 Q Q Model variation ).9 Crises ) Model variation is represented by the highest and lowest crisis probability based on different model specifications and trend calculations. Source: Norges Bank

83 Chart. Reference rates for the countercyclical capital buffer under alternative trend estimates. Percent. 98 Q Q.. Buffer based on deviation from trend using augmented HP filter ) Buffer based on deviation from trend using one sided HP filter ) ) One sided Hodrick Prescott filter estimated on data augmented with a simple projection. Lambda =. ) One sided Hodrick Prescott filter. Lambda =. Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

84 Chart PMI in large euro area countries. Diffusion index centred around. Q Q and February Q Q Q Q February Germany France Italy Spain Source: Thomson Reuters

85 Chart Retail trade. Three-month moving average. Twelve-month change. Percent. January January - - US Euro area UK Newly industrialised countries in Asia¹) ) Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. GDP weights. Sources: Thomson Reuters and CEIC

86 Chart Wage growth. Twelve-month change. Percent. January February US Germany¹) UK Sweden 7 9 ) Three-month moving average. Source: Thomson Reuters

87 Chart Production of capital goods in Sweden. Twelve-month change. Three-month average. Machinery and equipment investment in the EU. Four-quarter change. Percent. January January Machinery and equipment investment in EU8 (left-hand scale) Production of capital goods in Sweden (right-hand scale) Source: Thomson Reuters -

88 Chart Contributions to twelve-month change in consumer prices in 8 advanced countries. Percentage points. January December Energy Food Industrial goods Services Total - - Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

89 Chart China. Investment. Annual growth, value. Percent. 9 Source: CEIC

90 Chart 7 Emerging economies. GDP. Four-quarter change. Percent. Q Q - - China India Brazil Russia Source: Thomson Reuters

91 Chart 8 China. Imports. Volume. Twelve-month change. Three-month moving average. Percent. March February Source: CEIC

92 Chart GDP mainland Norway ), employment and registered unemployment rate. Percentage ) devation form estimated trend. ) 98 Q Q 8 8 GDP Employment Unemployment ) GDP and employment per capita for the age group 7 ) For the unemployment rate, percentage point deviation from estimated trend ) Trend is estimated using a two sided Hodrick Prescott filter (lambda = ) Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration and Norges Bank

93 Chart GDP mainland Norway ) and labour participation rate. ) Percentage deviation from estimated trend. ) 988 Q Q 8 GDP Participation rate ) GDP per capita for the age group 7. ) Seasonally adjusted labour force (Labour Force Survey) as a percentage of the population aged 7. ) Trend estimated using a two sided Hodrick Prescott filter (lambda = ). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

94 Chart GDP mainland Norway ) and qualified university and college applicants. Percentage deviation from estimated trend. ) GDP Qualified applicants ) GDP and qualified university and college applicants per capita for the age group 7. ) Trend estimated using a two sided Hodrick Prescot filter with lambda = on annual data. Sources: Norwegian Universities and Colleges Admission Service, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

95 Chart Net migration by origin and non resident employees on short term contracts. Thousand persons. 99 ) 7 7 Net migration non EU/EEA countries Net migration EU/EEA Change short term contracts ) Series for change in non resident employees on short term contracts is from to. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank