Monetary Policy Report 3/11. Charts

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1 Monetary Policy Report / Charts

2 Chart. Projected output gap¹) for Norway's trading partners. Per cent. Q Q MPR / MPR / ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP and projected potential GDP for Norway's trading partners Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank -

3 Chart. Yield spreads against German -year government bonds. Percentage points. January 8 October 8 9 Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy 8 9 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Source: Thomson Reuters

4 Chart. Developments in equity markets. Index. January 8 =. January 8 October 8 8 US Euro area Norway Japan Emerging markets Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Source: Thomson Reuters

5 Chart. Yields on -year government bonds. Per cent. January October US Germany Source: Thomson Reuters

6 Chart. Difference between -month money market rate and expected key rates¹). Percentage points. -day moving average. January 8 October US Norway Euro area Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- ) Expected key rates are derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates. Norges Bank's projections for market key rate expectations are used for Norway Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

7 Chart. Key policy rate, money market rate¹), yield on -year covered bonds²) and weighted average lending rate on new residential mortgages³). Per cent. January 8 October Money market rate Key policy rate Bank lending rate (new residential mortgages) Yield on -year covered bonds Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- ) -month NIBOR (effective) ) Sum of -month NIBOR and indicative credit spreads on -year covered bonds ) Interest rate on new residential mortgages of NOK m within % of purchase price with variable interest rate. Figures for the largest banks, weighted according to market share Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS, DnB Nor Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 9 8 7

8 Chart.7 Key rates and estimated forward rates as at June and October.¹) Per cent. January 8 December ²) US Euro area³) UK 8 9 ) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at June. Thin lines show forward rates as at October. Forward rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates ) Daily figures from July 8 and quarterly figures from Q ) EONIA in euro area from Q Sources: Bloomberg L.P. and Norges Bank

9 Chart.8 Consumer prices. -month change. Per cent. January September 7. CPI % trimmed mean 7. CPI-ATE ¹) CPIXE ²) CPI-FW ³) CPIM⁴) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 ) CPI adjusted for frequency of price changes. See Norges Bank Economic commentaries 7/9 ) Model-based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic commentaries / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

10 Chart.9 Inflation. Moving -year average¹) and variation²) in CPI³). Per cent Variation Inflation target CPI ) The moving average is calculated years back ) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation ) CPI projections in this Report form the basis for this estimate Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

11 Chart. Expected consumer price inflation and years ahead.¹) Per cent. Q Q Expected inflation years ahead Expected inflation years ahead ) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists (financial industry experts, macro analysts and academia) Sources: TNS Gallup and Perduco

12 Chart. Five-year forward rate¹) differential years ahead between Norway and the euro area.²) Percentage points. January October ) Based on swap rates ) Expected inflation can be derived from the long-term interest rate differential. Due to a higher inflation target in Norway, the long-term interest rate differential will normally be. percentage point, depending on risk premium. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

13 Chart. Three-month money market rates.¹) Trading partners. Per cent. 8 Q Q Market MPR / ( June) Market MPR / ( October) 8 9 ) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

14 Chart. Household debt burden¹) and interest burden²). Per cent. Quarterly figures. 988 Q Q¹) 8 Interest burden (left-hand scale) Debt burden (right-hand scale) ) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for ) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for plus interest expenses Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

15 Chart.a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Per cent. 8 Q Q 8 7 % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank

16 Chart.b Projected output gap¹) in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Per cent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP Source: Norges Bank -

17 Chart.c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

18 Chart.d Projected CPIXE¹) in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 8, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Source: Norges Bank -

19 Chart. Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario. Per cent. January 8 December 8 7 Strategy period /7 /8 /8 /8 MPR / MPR / MPR / 8 7 Key policy rate 7 Dec 8 /9 /9 / / / / / / /9 8 9 Source: Norges Bank

20 Chart. Difference between -month money market rate and expected key rates.¹) Percentage points. 8 Q Q. Premium MPR / Premium MPR / ) Norges Bank's projections from Q Source: Norges Bank

21 Chart.7 Three-month money market rate differential between Norway¹) and trading partners and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-)²). January December ³) I- (left-hand scale) -month rate differential (right-hand scale) 7 9 ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate ) Monthly figures from January and Norges Bank projections from Q Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank - -

22 Chart.8 Projected inflation¹) and output gap in the baseline scenario. Per cent. 8 Q Q Output gap (left-hand scale) CPIXE (right-hand scale) ) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 8, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Source: Norges Bank

23 Chart.9 Real exchange rate. Deviation from mean over the period 97. Per cent. 97 ¹) Relative consumer prices Relative wages ) The squares show the average so far in. A positive slope indicates weaker competitiveness Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank -

24 Chart.a Key policy rate. Per cent. 8 Q Q 8 7 Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& Baseline scenario Source: Norges Bank

25 Chart.b Output gap. Per cent. 8 Q Q Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& Baseline scenario Source: Norges Bank -

26 Chart.c CPIXE¹). Four-quarter change. Per cent. 8 Q Q.... Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& Baseline scenario ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 8, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Source: Norges Bank

27 Chart. Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules.¹) Per cent. 8 Q Q 8 7 Taylor rule Growth rule Rule with foreign interest rates Key policy rate in the baseline scenario ) The calculations are based on Norges Bank s projections for the output gap, growth gap, consumer prices and -month money market rates among trading partners. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in -month money market rates Source: Norges Bank

28 Chart. Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario¹) and estimated forward rates²). Per cent. 8 Q Q 8 7 Estimated forward rates Money market rates in the baseline scenario ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market. ) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue band shows the highest and lowest forward rates in the period September October Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

29 Chart. Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank s average pattern of interest rate setting.¹) Per cent. Q Q % confidence interval Key policy rate ) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and -month money market rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 999 Q Q. See Staff Memo /8 for further discussion Source: Norges Bank

30 Chart.a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. 8 Q Q Baseline scenario Increased growth abroad Weaker growth abroad 7 % % 7% 9% 8 9 Source: Norges Bank

31 Chart.b Output gap in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. 8 Q Q Baseline scenario Increased growth abroad Weaker growth abroad % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank -

32 Chart.c CPIXE¹) in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 8 Q Q Baseline scenario Increased growth abroad Weaker growth abroad % % 7% 9% 8 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 8, CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Source: Norges Bank

33 Chart Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR / with fan chart and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR / (red line). Per cent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank

34 Chart Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR /. Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. Q Q Growth abroad Supplementary assessment Capacity utilisation Prices and costs Money market premiums Interest rates abroad Change in the interest rate forecast Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Norges Bank -

35 Chart. GDP growth in G advanced economies and G emerging markets. ) Quarterly growth. Per cent. Q Q - - G Advanced economies G Emerging markets ) GDP-weighted (PPP) Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

36 Chart. Change in debt for households ) and public sector ). Percentage points. Change from Q to peak and from Q to current level Households: from to peak Public sector: from to peak Households: from to current level Public sector: from to current level US Euro area UK Spain Sweden ) Gross debt as a percentage of disposable income ) Gross debt as a percentage of GDP Sources: Thomson Reuters, ECB and Norges Bank

37 Chart. Housing indicators for the US. Index, January =. January August 8 Housing starts Existing home sales New home sales Source: Thomson Reuters

38 Chart. Private investment. ) Index, Q 8 =. 7 Q Q 9 8 US Germany Euro area Sweden UK ) Gross fixed capital investment for the euro area, Germany and Sweden. Private non-residential investment for the US. Business investment for the UK Source: Thomson Reuters

39 Chart. Consumer prices excluding food and energy. ) -month change. Per cent. January August US Euro area UK Sweden ) HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco for the euro area, UK and Sweden Source: Thomson Reuters

40 Chart. Unit labour costs. Total economy. Four-quarter change. Per cent. Q Q 8 US Euro area UK Source: OECD -

41 Chart.7 Core inflation in emerging markets¹). -month change. Per cent. January August 8 - Brazil Russia China India ) India: wholesale prices for manufactured goods Source: Thomson Reuters

42 Chart.8 Oil price (Brent Blend) and prices for Norwegian petroleum exports ). USD/barrel. January April 8 Oil price Futures Futures as at MPR / Futures as at MPR / Petroleum price 8 8 ) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exports Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

43 Chart.9 Prices for coal, crude oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU. January August Coal US¹) Oil¹) Gas UK¹) Gas US¹) Gas Russia Gas Norway²) Futures 7 9 ) For October calculated as daily average ) Calculation of future gas prices for Norway based on assumptions in National Budget Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

44 Chart. Commodity prices. USD. Spot and futures prices. Index, January =. January October 7 Aluminium Copper Wheat Cotton Futures Sources: CME Group and Thomson Reuters

45 Chart. CPI, CPI-ATE ) and CPIXE ). -month change. Per cent. January 8 June ) CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 ) Projections for October June (broken lines). Monthly figures to March, then quarterly figures Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

46 Chart. CPI-ATE ). Total and by supplier sector. -month change. Per cent. January 8 June ) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services ³) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) Projections for October June (broken lines). Monthly figures to March, then quarterly figures ) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -.

47 Chart. Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI-ATE and prices for clothing in the CPI. -month change. Per cent. January 8 September Imported consumer goods Clothing Source: Statistics Norway

48 Chart. Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Per cent. ) ) Projections for and Source: Norges Bank

49 Chart. CPI-ATE ). Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM ) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Per cent. Q Q ) MPR / SAM CPI-ATE % % 7% 9% Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) System for averaging models ) Projections for Q Q (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

50 Chart. GDP mainland Norway,) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Per cent. Q Q ) Regional network Mainland GDP growth ) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume ) High electricity production may contribute by about ¼ percentage point higher quarterly growth in GDP mainland Norway in Q than shown in the chart ) Latest observation in the Regional network is September. Latest GDP observation is Q, projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

51 Chart.7 Terms of trade. Index. Q =. Q Q Mainland Norway Total Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

52 Chart.8 GDP mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario ) and projections from SAM ) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. Q Q ) 7 % % 7% 9% 7 Mainland GDP MPR / SAM Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- ) High electricity production may contribute by about ¼ percentage point higher quarterly growth in GDP mainland Norway in Q than shown in the chart ) System for averaging models ) Projections for Q Q (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

53 Chart.9 Capacity constraints and labour supply ) in Regional network and estimated output gap. Per cent. January September - Output gap MPR / (left-hand scale) Capacity constraints (right-hand scale) Labour supply (right-hand scale) ) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply Source: Norges Bank

54 Chart. Exports from mainland Norway. Constant 7 prices. In billions of NOK. 99 ) Services Traditional goods ) Projections for and Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

55 Chart. Household consumption ) and real disposable income ). Annual change. Per cent. ) 8 8 Household consumption Household real disposable income 7 9 ) Includes consumption among non-profit organisations. Volume ) Excluding dividend income. Including income in non-profit organisations ) Projections for (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

56 Chart. Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Per cent. 99 ) Saving ratio excl. dividend income Saving ratio, adjusted ²) Net lending ratio excl. dividend income ) Projections for (broken lines) ) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

57 Chart. Housing starts ) and order intake for residential construction ). 99 Q Q 8 Order intake (right-hand scale) Housing starts (left-hand scale) ) In s of square meters. Seasonally adjusted ) Seasonally adjusted value index deflated by the price index for housing investment in the national accounts. Deferred two quarters forward. 7 = Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

58 Chart. Planned growth in investment for next months compared with past months. Index. ) October September Manufacturing Retail trade Services ) The scale runs from - to +, where - denotes a sharp fall and + denotes strong growth. See article "Norges Bank's regional network: fresh and useful information" in Economic Bulletin /9 for further information Source: Norges Bank

59 Chart. Investment in mainland Norway excluding public sector. Constant 7 prices. In billions of NOK. 99 ) Business Housing ) Projections for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

60 Chart. Employment ) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months. Per cent. Q Q ) Regional network Employment growth ) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change in Quarterly National Accounts ) Latest observation in the Regional network is September. Latest observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is Q, projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

61 Chart.7 Population growth, net migration and excess of births. Sum of four previous quarters. In s of persons. Q Q ) 7 Net migration Excess of births Population growth ) Projections for Q - Q Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

62 Chart.8 Actual trend in labour force and labour force given demografic developments ). In s. January December 7 7 Labour force participation at level Labour force participation at 7 level Actual labour force, trend 8 ) Total labour force given unchanged labour force participation in every age group from the /7 level Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

63 Chart.9 Registered unemployment. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Q Q ) ) Projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

64 Chart. GDP per hour worked for mainland Norway. Index, 997 Q =. Seasonally adjusted. Market value. 997 Q Q ) ) Projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 9

65 Chart. Non-oil budget deficit and structural non-oil budget deficit. Percentage of GDP mainland Norway. ) 7 Non-oil deficit Structural, non-oil deficit ) Projections for and Sources: Ministry of Finance and Statistics Norway 7

66 Chart. Structural, non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global. Constant prices. In billions of NOK. ) 8 8 Structural, non-oil deficit Expected real return ) Projections for Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

67 Chart. Petroleum investment. Constant 7 prices. In billions of NOK. 99 ) ) Projections for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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