Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments

Transcription

1 The central bank of Hungary Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 1 April 11 As of the th of June, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) publishes a comprehensive chart-pack about the latest information in financial markets and the macro-economy. Our aim is to provide analysts and the public with a frequently updated, easy-to-use, clear-cut data set, in order to promote better knowledge and understanding of the current economic and financial market situation. The updated chart-pack is published on the day of each rate-setting meeting at pm. Questions and comments are welcome, and should be addressed to info@mnb.hu. The data sources of this document, in whole or in part, do not fall within the scope of Act XLVI of 199 on statistics, therefore the data contained in the tables and charts are not to be considered as official statistical data. Magyar Nemzeti Bank excludes all liability for any damage caused by the usage of the herein published non-official statistical data.

2 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 April EUR/HUF exchange rate HUF HUF Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 17 June Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb June 11 Aug. Nov. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 9 Mar. 1 June 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. Feb. 11 Mar. EUR/HUF CHF/HUF USD/HUF Notes: reverse scale, hourly observations.. EUR/HUF exchange rate (last 1 month) HUF HUF Mar Mar. 1 Mar. 1 Mar. Mar. Mar. 9 Mar. 1 Mar Notes: reverse scale, hourly observations. EUR/HUF (left-hand scale) CHF/HUF USD/HUF 1

3 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 April 11. Emerging markets exchange rates Jan. Feb. 11 Mar. 1 June Nov. 1 Dec. Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 9 June 1 1 Aug. 7 1 Dec. Jan. 1 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 9 June Aug Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar. EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/RON - Notes: January = ; cumulative change. Positive values mean appreciation.. Emerging markets exchange rates (last 1 month),,,, 1, 1, 1 1,, -, -, , -1, 1 Mar. 1 Mar. 1 Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. 1 Mar EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/RON Notes: cumulative change, -minute frequency. Positive values mean appreciation.

4 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 April 11. HUF vis-á-vis emerging market exchange rates Jan. Feb. 11 Mar. 1 June Nov. 1 Dec. Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 9 June 1 1 Aug. 7 1 Dec. Jan. 1 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 9 June Aug Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar. CZK PLN RON ZAR TRY - Notes: January = ; cumulative change. Positive values mean HUF appreciation.. HUF vis-á-vis emerging market exchange rates (last 1 month) Mar. 1 Mar. 1 Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. 9 Mar. 1 Mar CZK PLN RON ZAR TRY Notes: cumulative change, -minute frequency. Positive values mean HUF appreciation.

5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 April Implied and historical volatilities of the forint-euro exchange rate Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 17 June 1 7 Nov. 7 Dec. Jan Feb. 1 Mar. Mar. 1 week (implied) 1 month (implied) backward-looking (GARCH) volatility (right-hand scale) Source: Bloomberg. Notes: GARCH is weighted volatility calculated using historical data; implied volatility (based on foreign exchange option quotes) can be interpreted as an indicator of risk perceived by the market.. Risk reversal and skewness of exchange rate expectations Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 17 June Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb. 1 1 Aug. Nov. 1 Dec. 7 Jan. 1 1 Mar. 1 June 7 9 Nov. Dec. Feb Mar. risk reversal skewness (right-hand scale) Source: Bloomberg. Notes: based on option quotes for 1-month D risk reversal; skewness=rr/volatility*1. Risk reversal can be regarded as a "nominal" indicator for the skewness of the distribution of exchange rate expectations, while skewness eliminates the effect of changes in volatility.

6 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 April Implied HUF yields based on FX-swap market trades and quotes 1 1 Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. 1 Mar. 9 7 June 19 Aug Nov. 9 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 1 Mar. June 1 1 Aug Nov. Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. 1 Mar. Interest rate corridor month O/N Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: implied forint yields based on USDHUF FX-swap trades in the case of O/N maturity, and based on USDHUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters in the cases of -month and -month maturities. 1. Difference between interbank yields and implied yields based on FX-swap markets Jan. 9 Jan. 7 Feb. 7 Mar. 19 June 17 1 Aug Nov. Dec. 1 Jan. 1 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June Aug. 1 Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan Feb. 17 Mar. Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. months months Notes: implied forint yields based on USDHUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters; interbank yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data.

7 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 April Implied month forward interest rate curves (based on government securities yields) 1. Implied month forward interest rate curve (based on interbank yields),,,,,,,, 7,7 7,7 7,7 7,7 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7,,7,,,,7, Source: MNB, ÁKK. Notes: estimated by the MNB using the Svensson-technique. 7,,7,,,,7, years later 1 March 11 April 11 1 April 11 7,,7,,,,7, Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. 7,,7,,,,7, years later 17 March 11 7 April 11 1 April 11 Notes: estimated by the MNB from interbank money market (FRA) and interest rate swap quotes using the spline technique. 1. Spread between -month forward yields in EUR and HUF 1. The difference between the quoted rate of the month FRA and the current base rate EUR (1 11) év HUF (1 11) EUR ( 11) HUF ( 11) Forward differential (1 11) - 1 month months months - Forward differential ( 11) 1 Mar Source: ÁKK, ECB, MNB. estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro area central government bonds. Notes: based on FRA quotes provided by Tulett & Tokio Liberty on Reuters. Columns represent the difference between the quoted rate of the month forward rate agreement starting from the given date and the base rate.

8 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 April Policy rate expectations derived from money market rates 1. Policy rate expectations derived from government bond yields 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Jan. 1 9 Mar. 1 June 1 Dec. Feb Aug. 7 Nov. Jan Dec. 1 Jan. 1 1 Mar Dec. Feb Nov. 7 Feb June 1 Nov. Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. 1 March 11 7 April 11 1 April 11 Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. 1 March 11 April 11 1 April 11 Notes: estimated by the MNB from interbank interest rates using the spline-technique. Notes: estimated by the MNB using the Svensson-technique. 17. MNB base rate and money market rates Jan. 7 Jan. 1 Feb. 17 Mar June 1 Aug. Nov. 17 Dec. 11 Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. 7 Mar June Aug Nov. Dec. 7 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 1 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 June 1 9 Aug. 17 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Jan. Feb. Mar. O/N interbank week central bank deposit month BUBOR 1x FRA O/N central bank deposit O/N central bank loan Source: MNB, ÁKK, Thomson Reuters. Notes: O/N interbank yield is the calculated average yield weighted by turnover data, FRA yield is the close mid-quote provided by Thomson Reuters. 7

9 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 April Short-term interbank yields 19. Short-term government securities - interbank yield spreads basis point basis point 11, 11, 1, 1, 1, 1, 9, 9, 9, 9, 1 1,,,, 1 1 7, 7, 7, 7,,,,,,, - -,,,, -1-1 Jan. 9 7 Feb. 7 June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. Feb. 1 Mar. 1 1 Nov. 11 Jan. 11 Jan. 9 Mar. 9 9 June Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June 1 Aug. 7 Dec. Feb. 11 month 1 year month 1 year Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: swap yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data. Source: ÁKK, Thomson Reuters. Notes: the bond yields are estimated via Svensson-, swap yields via spline method.. Long-term interbank yields 1. Long-term government security - interbank yield spreads 1, 1, 1, 9, 1, 9, 7 7 9,, 9,, ,, 1 1 7, 7, 7, 7, ,,,, - -,, - - Jan. 9 7 Feb. 7 June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. Feb. 1 Mar. 1 1 Nov. 11 Jan. 11 Mar. Jan. 9 Mar. 9 9 June Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June 1 Aug. 7 Dec. Feb. 11 Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. year 1 year Notes: swap yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data. Source: ÁKK, Thomson Reuters. year 1 year Notes: the bond yields are estimated via Svensson-, swap yields via spline method.

10 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 April 11. Short-term yields of benchmark government securities. Long-term yields of benchmark government securities Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. 1 Mar. 9 9 June 7 Aug. Nov. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. June 9 Aug. 1 9 Nov. 9 Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. 1 Mar. 9 9 June 7 Aug Nov. 17 Dec. Jan Feb. 1 Mar June 1 17 Aug. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Feb. 1 Mar. M M 1M Y Y 1Y 1Y Source: ÁKK. Source: ÁKK. Notes: daily reference yields provided by Government Debt Agency. Notes: daily reference yields provided by Government Debt Agency.. Yields of benchmark government securities 7,7 7, 7, 7,,7,,,,7 7,7 7, 7, 7,,7,,,,7,, 1 Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar 11. Mar 11. Mar 11. Mar 11. Mar 11. Mar Mar 11. Mar Mar Apr 11. Apr 11. Apr 11. Apr Apr 11. Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr 11. Source: Thomson Reuters, FTSE. Notes: intraday 1-minute frequency data. M M 1Y Y Y 1Y 1Y 9

11 Financial Markets 1 April 11. Spot turnover on the forint currency market. Swap turnover on the forint currency market HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn Jan. 9 Mar. 7 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June Aug. Nov. Jan. 11 Mar. Jan. 9 Mar. 7 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June Aug. Nov. Jan. 11 Mar. -day MA -day MA -day MA -day MA Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. 7. Forward turnover on the forint currency market. Option turnover on the forint currency market HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn Jan. 9 Mar. 7 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June Aug. Nov. Jan. 11 Mar. Jan. 9 Mar. 7 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June Aug. Nov. Jan. 11 Mar. -day MA -day MA -day MA -day MA Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. 1

12 Financial Markets 1 April Net FRA position of non-residents and FRA-base rate spreads. Net Forint forward stock of residents and the exchange rate HUF bn HUF bn EUR/HUF Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 7 9 June Aug Nov. 1 Dec. Base rate - 1x FRA yield differential 9 Feb Mar. 1 Jan. 1 1 Feb. 1 Mar. Mar. 7 June Aug Nov. 17 Dec. 17 Jan Feb. 1 Mar. 1 Base rate - x FRA yield differential net forward stock of residents net FRA position of foreigners (right-hand scale) exchange rate (right-hand scale, inverted scale) Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: based on FRA quotes provided by Tulett & Tokio Liberty on Reuters. Notes: Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions. Due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and nonstandard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series. 1. Forint FX Swap stock of non-residents HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 1 1 Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Feb. Feb. 1 Mar. Mar June 1 June 1 1 Aug. 7 Aug. 1 Nov. 19 Nov. Dec. 17 Dec. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Jan. 11 Feb. Feb. 11 Mar. Mar. HUF/FX - max 1W HUF/FX - 1W-M HUF/FX - M-1Y HUF/FX - min 1Y FX/HUF - max 1W FX/HUF - 1W-M FX/HUF - M-1Y FX/HUF - min 1Y Notes: due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series. 11

13 Financial Markets 1 April 11. Forint FX Swap stock of non-residents HUF billions 1 1 HUF billions Jan Feb. Mar. June 1 19 Aug. Nov. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb June 1 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Jan Mar. total net FX swap stock of foreigners cumulated HUF purchase of foreigners Notes: due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.. Forint financial assets held by non-residents HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 7 1 June 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb. 17 Aug Nov. Dec. Feb. 1 Mar. 1 June 9 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Feb. government securities central bank (two-week) bills equity Source: MNB, TeleDataCast. Notes: January = ; cumulative change. Equity data are not comprehensive, it contains data for large- and mid-cap stocks quoted on the Budapest Stock Exchange. 1

14 Financial Markets 1 April 11. Government securities of non-residents by tenor HUF billions HUF billions June 1 1 June 9 June Aug. Aug. Nov. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Dec. 1 Jan Jan. 1 Feb. Feb. 1 Mar. Mar. total amount maturing until 1/1/1 maturing between 1/1/1 and 1/1/1 maturing after 1/1/1 auctions, redemptions Notes: 1 June 1 = ; cumulative change without central bank bills.. Government securities held by non-residents HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. June Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. June Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. T-Bill/MNB-Bill redemption T-Bond redemption T-Bill/MNB-Bill auction T-Bond auction secondary market total Notes: monthly change. The last month contains information on available data. 1

15 Financial Markets 1 April 11. Government securities held by non-residents and the proportion to the total amount outstanding. 7. Government securities held by non-residents and the proportion to the total amount outstanding HUF bn HUF bn Jan. Jan. 7 Feb. June Feb. 9 Nov. Mar. Nov. Mar Nov. Nov. 9 Dec. Dec. Jan. Jan. Feb Feb. Mar. 19 Mar. 1 stock (right-hand scale) percentage of total amount outstanding stock (right-hand scale) percentage of total amount outstanding (left-hand scale) Notes: MNB calculations without central bank bills. Notes: MNB calculations without central bank bills.. The average time to maturity of residents' and nonresidents' government security portfolio 9. The relative average time to maturity of residents' and non-residents' government security portfolio year year month month,,,, 7 7,,,,,, 1 1,, -1-1,, ,, - - Jan. 9 1 Feb. Mar. 1 June Aug Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Mar June 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Feb. 11 Mar. Jan. 9 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 Aug. 1 1 Nov. Dec. Jan. 1 Mar June Nov. 1 Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. 1 total non-residents residents non-residents residents Notes: MNB calculations without T-Bills and central bank (two-week) bills. Notes: MNB calculations; without T-Bills and central bank (two week) bills. 1

16 Financial Markets 1 April 11. The turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues HUF billions 17 month T-bill 1 month T-bill year T-bond year T-bond 1 year T-bond , 7,, Source: ÁKK. Announced (billion HUF) Total bid (billion HUF) Accepted (billion HUF) Max yield ( - rhs) Avg yield ( - rhs) Min yield ( - rhs) Notes: the turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues. In case of floating rate bonds the yield data are not be plotted. 1. Government securities issues, buybacks, redemptions HUF billions HUF billions Jan Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. Feb. Mar. 1 Mar. Mar June June June 1 9 Aug. 19 Aug. 9 Aug Nov. 17 Nov. 7 Nov. 7 Dec. 17 Dec. 7 Dec. Jan Jan. Jan. Feb. 1 Feb. Feb. 7 Mar. 17 Mar. 7 Mar. Source: ÁKK. Net T-bill issuance Bonds bought back Bonds matured Net change 1

17 Financial Markets 1 April 11. Turnover on the forint unsecured interbank market. Turnover on the forint FRA market HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. 1 June 1 1 Nov. Dec. 9 Jan. 1 1 Mar. 1 Mar. 1 June June 9 Aug. 7 Nov. 7 Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. Feb. 9 9 Mar. 7 June 7 Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. June Aug. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. -day moving averages -day moving averages -day moving averages -day moving averages Notes: deal dates, based on reporting by domestic banks; central moving averages. Notes: deal dates, based on reporting by domestic banks; central moving averages.. Turnover on the secondary market of government securities HUF billions HUF billions Jan Feb. 7 9 Aug. Nov. 11 Jan. 1 Feb Aug. 1 Nov. 11 Jan. 11 Feb. less than 1 year 1 to years to years more than years Source: KELER Notes: 1-day moving averages. 1

18 International and Regional Environment 1 April 11. ECB policy rate expectations,7,7,,,,,, 1,7 1,7 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,,7,7,,,,,, Jan. 1 Mar. 7 June 17 Aug. 1 7 Dec. 1 Feb Mar Nov. Jan. 1 Feb. 19 June 1 Aug. 9 Dec. 1 March 11 April 11 1 April 11 Source: ECB. Notes: estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro area central government bonds.. Fed policy rate expectations 1, 1, 1, 1,,7,7,,,,,, 1 Jan. 1 Mar. 9 7 June Aug. Dec. 19 Feb June 1 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 March 11 7 April 11 1 April 11 Notes: derived from Fed funds futures contracts. 17

19 International and Regional Environment 1 April Policy rates of the ECB, Fed, Swiss National Bank and the -month money market interest rates.,,,,,, 1, 1, 1, 1,,,, 1 Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 1 June 1 Nov. 17 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June Nov. 7 Dec. 1 Jan Mar. 11 ECB EUR yield SNB CHF yield Fed funds target rate USD yield,. month interbank and treasury yield spreads Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 1 June 1 Nov. 17 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June Aug. 1 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar. euro -day MA dollar -day MA 1

20 International and Regional Environment 1 April month LIBOR - OIS spreads Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 1 June 1 Nov. 17 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June 1 19 Aug. Dec. Jan Feb. 17 Mar. EUR USD GBP. Long-term EUR and USD benchmark yields,,,,,,,,,, 1 Jan. 9 1 Feb. Mar. 7 1 June 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 Aug. Nov. Dec. 1 Jan Mar. 1-year EUR 1-year USD Notes: based on benchmark yield data provided by Thomson Reuters. 19

21 International and Regional Environment 1 April Major currencies versus the dollar Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 17 June 1 1 Aug. 9 7 Nov. Dec. Dec. 7 Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. USD/EUR USD/GBP USD/CHF USD/JPY Notes: 1 January 9 = ; cumulative change. Positive values indicate USD appreciation.. Commodity benchmarks USD/barrel; index values USD/ounce Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 17 June 1 1 Aug. 9 7 Nov. Dec. Jan Jan. Feb. Mar. Brent crude oil (USD/barrel) S&P GSCI main index* S&P GSCI agricultural and livestock index* Gold bullion (USD/troy ounce, right-hand scale) Notes: Brent crude oil and gold buillon: nominal values, *Standard&Poor's Goldman Sachs Commodity index: 1 January 9=1.

22 International and Regional Environment 1 April 11. Developed market stock indices Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. Mar. 9 7 June 19 Aug Nov. 9 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 1 June 9 June 7 Aug Nov. 7 Dec. Jan Feb. 1 Mar. DJ STOXX S&P FTSE 1 NIKKEI Notes: January 9 = ; cumulative change.. Emerging market stock indices Jan. 9 9 Feb. 9 Mar. June 1 Aug. 7 Nov. Dec. Jan Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 11 Aug. 9 7 Nov. 1 Dec. 1 Jan Feb. 11 Mar. 1 BUX (Hungary) PX (Czech Rep.) WIG (Poland) Shanghai Composite RTS (Russia; right-hand scale) Notes: 1 January 9 = ; cumulative change. 1

23 International and Regional Environment 1 April 11. Major risk aversion indicators /Jan/9 9/Jan /Feb /Mar /Apr 1/ 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Aug 1/Sep /Oct /Nov /Dec 1/Dec /Jan/1 /Feb /Mar /Apr / 17/Jun 1/Jul 1/Aug 9/Sep 7/Oct /Nov /Dec /Dec 7/Jan/11 /Feb /Mar VIX index EUR/USD 1 month implied volatility EMBI Global (right-hand scale) Source: Thomson Reuters; JP Morgan. Notes: increases indicate declining risk appetite or increasing risk aversion. VIX is the implied volatility of S&P index.. Key CDS composite indices Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Jan. 1 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. itraxx Europe itraxx Europe HiVol CDX investment grade itraxx Crossover CDX high yield (right-hand scale) Notes: itraxx Europe index is composed of the most liquid 1 CDS referencing European investment grade names. itraxx HiVol is a subset of the main index consisting of the most risky constituents. Crossover index comprises the most liquid sub-investment grade entities. CDX North American Investment Grade index consists of 1 names, CDX North American High Yield index comprises 1 names.

24 International and Regional Environment 1 April year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets June 1 Aug. 17 Nov. 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 June Nov. 11 Jan. 1 Feb. 17 June 9 Aug. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar. Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia CEEMEA SovX Notes: CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.. year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets (last months) Dec. 9 Dec. 1 Jan. Jan. 1 Feb. 11 Feb. Feb. 7 Mar. 17 Mar. 9 Mar. Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia CEEMEA SovX Notes: CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.

25 International and Regional Environment 1 April year sovereign CDS spreads in peripherial eurozone countries June 1 Aug. 17 Nov. 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 June Nov. 11 Jan. 1 Feb. 17 June 9 Aug. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar. Greece Portugal Spain Italy Ireland CEEMEA SovX CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.. year sovereign CDS spreads in peripherial eurozone countries (last months) Nov. 19 Nov. Dec. 17 Dec. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Jan. 11 Feb. Feb. 11 Mar. Mar. Greece Portugal Spain Italy Ireland CEEMEA SovX CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.

26 International and Regional Environment 1 April year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging European countries. year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging European countries (last months) June 1 Aug. 17 Nov. 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 June Nov. 11 Jan. 1 Feb. 17 June 9 Aug. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar. 17 Dec. 9 Dec. 1 Jan. Jan. 1 Feb. 11 Feb. Feb. 7 Mar. 17 Mar. 9 Mar. Poland Czech Republic Russia Poland Czech Republic Russia Turkey Estonia Turkey Estonia. Emerging market sovereign foreign currency bond spreads Jan. 9 Feb. 1 June 1 Aug. Dec. Jan. 1 Mar. 1 9 Nov. Dec. Feb. 11 Hungary all emerging Latin America CEE Asia Notes: calculated from JP Morgan Euro EMBI data. The series are differences between euro denominated (liquid) foreign currency bond yields and euro zero coupon yields of the corresponding maturities.

27 International and Regional Environment 1 April 11. Policy rates and -month interbank deposit rates in CEE countries Aug. Nov. 1 Dec. 7 Jan. 9 1 Mar. 1 June 1 Aug. 17 Nov. 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Feb. 7 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Romania HUF interbank depo PLN interbank depo CZK interbank depo RON interbank depo Notes: interbank deposit rates based on Reuters quotes.. -month interbank deposit rates in some Central European and Baltic counties Jan Jan. Feb. Feb. 1 Mar June 19 Aug Nov. 9 Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 1 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 Mar. 1 7 June 9 June 1 1 Aug Nov. Dec. Dec. 17 Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. Mar. Notes: -day moving averages. Estonia Lithuania Latvia Bulgaria Ukraine (right-hand scale)

28 International and Regional Environment 1 April 11. Spreads of -year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over benchmarks 7. Spreads of Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over benchmarks Jan. 1 1 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 1 June 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Feb. Jan. 1 1 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 1 June 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Feb. Hungary (1//1) Poland (1/Feb./1) Czech Republic (/June/1) Romania (1/Mar./1) Croatia (1//1) Latvia (//1) Lithuania (1/Feb./1) Ukraine (1//1 - right-hand scale) Notes: spreads of -year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over the appropriate German benchmark yields. Notes: spreads of -year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over the appropriate German benchmark yields.. Benchmark yield curves of Hungary, Poland, Ireland and Germany m m 1y y y y y y 7y y 9y 1y 11y 1y 1y 1y 1y 1y 17y 1y 19y y y Hungary 1 Apr 11 Poland 1 Apr 11 Ireland 1 Apr 11 Germany 1 Apr 11 Hungary 19 Mar 11 Poland 19 Mar 11 Ireland 19 Mar 11 Germany 19 Mar 11 7

29 International and Regional Environment 1 April Spreads over year euro spot zero coupon yields Jan. 9 Jan. 7 Feb. 7 Mar. 19 June 17 1 Aug Nov. Dec. 1 Jan. 1 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. HUF CZK PLN Notes: zero-coupon yields provided by Reuters. 7. year implied spreads over euro rates in year's time Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 17 June Nov. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb June 1 Aug. 9 Dec. 7 Jan Feb. 1 Mar. HUF CZK PLN Notes: based on swap rates provided by Reuters.

30 Liquidity Position of the Banking Sector 1 April 11 HUF billions Developments in central bank balance sheet 1 Jan. 9 1 Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. Mar June June 9 Aug. 9 Aug Nov. 7 Dec. 7 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. Feb. 17 Mar. 1 June June 1 Aug. Aug. 1 1 Nov. Dec. Dec. 11 Jan Jan. Feb. 1 Mar. 1 reserve balances net stock of O/N instruments central bank bill FX-swap instruments HUF billions two-week loan six-month loan total HUF liquidity 7. Recourse to central bank instruments HUF billions 7 1 HUF billions Mar. 11 Mar. Mar. 7 Mar. 9 Mar. 11 Mar. 1 Mar. 1 Mar. 17 Mar. 19 Mar. 1 Mar. Mar. Mar. 7 Mar. 9 Mar. 1 Mar net stock of O/N instruments FX-swap instruments six-month loan two-week loan 9

31 Inflation 1 April The CPI and the Core CPI 7. Developments in underlying inflation indicators Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/7 Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/9 Sep Jan/1 Sep Jan/11 Range of underlying inflation indicators - Core Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index Core inflation excluding indirect tax changes Source: HCSO, MNB Source: HCSO, MNB. Notes: seasonally adjusted year-on-year growth rates (HCSO adjustments); The time series of core inflation have changed due to the change in the calculation method. Notes: The range is constructed of the median, weighted median, trimmed mean and Edgeworth-index indicators. 7. Decomposition of the Consumer Price Index Weight - 11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Consumer Price Index 1,,,1, thereof Unprocessed food,9 1, 1, 1,7 Processed food 11,,,1 9, Manufactured goods,,,, Market services 1,9,1,1, Non-regulated household energy, 9, 9, 9, Alcohol, tobacco 9,7 1, 1,, Gasoline prices, 1, 1, 1,9 Regulated prices 17,,,, Core Consumer Price Index,7 1,7 1,9, CPI without Tax Changes 1,,,9, Source: HCSO, MNB decomposition Notes: annual growth rates (); The time series of industrial products, market services, regulated prices have changed because the method of the core inflation developed by the CSO and the NBH has broken down several items (like pharmaceutical products, the telephone, the other travels, the TV fee) from 9.

32 Inflation 1 April The HUF/EUR exchange rate and the analysts' expectations HUF/EUR HUF/EUR Jan. Mar. 1 June 1 Dec. Feb. 9 1 Aug. Nov. 7 Jan Dec. Mar June 7 Nov. Feb. 1 1 MNB technical assumption in the latest QRI Mean of analysts' expectations Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB. Notes: inverted scale, projected band with a central exchange rate taken to be fixed at 7,1 from October 1 1, and at, from June. The thin continuous line represents analysts' average exchange rate expectations according to the most recent Reuters CEE FX Poll. The bold line stands for the MNB's technical exchange rate assumption underlying the the latest inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on Inflation. 77. The Brent crude oil price and market expectations USD/barrel 1 USD/barrel Jan Jan. Feb. 1 June 1 Feb. 9 June Jan. 7 1 Jan Jan Jan. 1 7 Jan Dec. 7 Mar. 1 June Dec. Source: Bloomberg, Consensus Economics. Historical Analysts' expectations* Futures** MNB technical assumption*** Notes: Consensus Economics Forecast (latest survey); the original forecasts refer to the WTI crude oil, and were corrected by the average difference between WTI and Brent to derive figures for the Brent crude oil; ** Based on the latest available futures prices ***Technical assumption underlying the MNB's inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on Inflation. 1

33 Inflation 1 April Monetary conditions Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan year real interest rate* (left-hand scale) CPI-based real exchange rate** (right-hand scale) 1 Source: Reuters, KSH, Eurostat, ÁKK, MNB. Notes: * calculated from the 1-year zero-coupon yield and analysts' corresponding 1-year forward inflation expectations derived from the Reuters-poll by the MNB. ** Monthly depreciation of the forint relative to the euro (until April 1 the pre-announced rate of devaluation), adjusted by the corresponding Hungarian CPI and the EMU's HICP (1 January 1997 = 1; increase represents appreciation). 79. Fan chart of the inflation forecast Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 Source: MNB, HCSO. Notes: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 9 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the consumer price index illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to per cent of the probability. The horizontal line shows the value of the announced inflation target.

34 Inflation 1 April 11. Analysts' expectations for the inflation rate in 11,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1, 1, 1, 1, Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. June Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. June Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. Notes: the thin continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value. The flat line indicates the medium-term inflation target. 1. Analysts' expectations for the inflation rate in 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1, 1, 1, 1, Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. June Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. Notes: the thin continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value. The flat line indicates the medium-term inflation target.

35 Inflation 1 April 11. The latest central projection of the MNB compared to other prognoses Consumer Price Index (annual average growth rate, ) MNB (March 11),, - Consensus Economics (April 11) * European Commission (November 1),9,7 - IMF (April 11),1,, OECD (November 1),9,1 - Reuters survey (April 11) GDP (annual growth rate, ) MNB (March 11),9, - Consensus Economics (April 11) * European Commission (November 1),, - IMF (April 11),,, OECD (November 1),,1 - Reuters survey (April 11) Current account balance (percent of GDP) MNB (March 11) 1,, - European Commission (November 1), -. - IMF (April 11) 1,,9 -. OECD (November 1) Budget deficit (ESA-9 method, percent of GDP) MNB (March 11) Consensus Economics (April 11) ** European Commission (November 1),7, - IMF (April 11) -.9,, OECD (November 1),1,9 - Reuters survey (April 11) 1 (-.9) - (-.7) Forecasts on the size of Hungary's export markets (annual growth rate, ) MNB (March 11),, - European Commission (November 1),,7 - IMF (April 11),7,,7 OECD (November 1),,, - Forecasts on the GDP growth rate of Hungary's trade partners (annual growth rate, ) MNB (March 11),1, - European Commission (February 11),1 - - IMF (April 11),,, OECD (November 1),,, - 1 In addition to the averages of polled analysts responses (the values in the middle), the smallest and largest values are also indicated for the Reuters and Consensus Economics surveys in order to illustrate distribution. Data not adjusted for calendar-day variations. Values calculated by MNB; the projections of the named institutions regarding individual countries are considered with the weights used for calculating the MNB s own external demand indicators. These figures may differ from those published by the aforementioned institutions. OECD did not publish any information about Romania, therefore Romania is not included in our OECD forecast. * Average of panelists' medium term projections. ** Excluding transfers from private pension funds. Sources: Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (Consensus Economics Inc. (London), April 11, March 11); European Commission Economic Forecasts (February 11, November 1); IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 11); Reuters survey (April 11); OECD Economic Outlook No. (November 1).

36 External Balance 1 April 11. Net financing capacity of the household sector Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Net financing capacity Liabilities Assets Seasonally adjusted, as a percentage of GDP. The uncertainty of seasonal adjustment is more higher than usual due to the outliers in the second and fourth quarter of 1. The adjustment might be changed significantly by the incoming new data. -. Net financing capacity of the non-monetary corporate sector Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 net financing capacity liabilities assets -1 Notes: seasonally adjusted; as a percentage of GDP.

37 External Balance 1 April 11. Net borrowing of the household sector HUF billions 1 HUF billions Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Consumption and other loans Mortgages (in HUF) Mortgages (in foreign currency) Total amount of loans - Notes: monthly change, seasonally adjusted data.. Change in export and import volumes (goods and services) Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Notes: annual growth rate. Export Import -

38 Domestic Economic Conjuncture 1 April Annual GDP growth rate. Quarterly GDP growth rate,, 1, 1, 1, 1,,,,, -, -, -1, -1, , -1, - - -, -, -, -, - - -, -, - - -, -, Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Source: HCSO. Source: HCSO. Notes: annual growth rate. Notes: seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate. 9. Fan chart of the GDP forecast Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 Source: MNB, HCSO. Notes: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 9 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the GDP illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to per cent of the probability. 7

39 Domestic Economic Conjuncture 1 April New dwelling trends 91. Developments in home prices Q1 199 Q Q1 199 Q Q1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Constructed dwellings (seasonally adjusted) Issued construction permits (seasonally adjusted) Real home prices (Origo database) FHB home price index Source: HCSO. Notes: year-on-year volume indices of trend-estimates. Source: Origo, FHN. Notes: year-on-year indices of trend-estimates; CPI deflated. 9. Household consumption and the accumulation of gross fixed assets Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1-1 Household consumption Gross fixed capital formation Source: HCSO. Notes: annual growth rates.

40 Domestic Economic Conjuncture 1 April Industrial production and the output of the manufacturing sector Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Industrial production Manufacturing sector Source: HCSO. Notes: year-on-year volume indices of seasonally adjusted data. 9. New orders in selected branches of the manufacturing sector Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 New domestic orders New export orders Source: HCSO, MNB. Notes: year-on-year volume indices of seasonally adjusted data. 9

41 Domestic Economic Conjuncture 1 April GKI household confidence index (reweighted) 9. Quarterly growth rates of automobile sales level level Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1-7 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Automobile sales month moving average Source: GKI. Source: Association of Hungarian Motor Vehicle Importers. Notes: the re-weighted consumer confidence index takes into account those subindices of the GKI survey which are the most highly correlated with the time series of household consumption expenditure. (For more details see: MNB Background Studies 1/) 97. Total volume of retail trade Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Total retail sales -month central moving average Source: HCSO. Notes: seasonally adjusted annualised monthly growth rates. The data of total retail sales contain beyond the narrow retail sales the turnover of motor vehicles and automotive fuel as well.

42 Domestic Economic Conjuncture 1 April Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in corporate sector H 9 Q Q H1 (forecast) H H1 H H1 H 7 H1 7 H H1 H 9 Q Q H1 (forecast) H H1 H H1 H 7 H1 7 H H1 H 9 Q Q H1 (forecast) Large and medium-sized enterprises Small and micro-sized enterprises Commercial real estate loans Notes: creditworthiness standards and credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 9 to previous half a year). 99. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in corporate sector H H1 H H1 H H1 H H1 H 7 H1 7 H H1 H 9 Q Q H1 (forecast) Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions - housing loan Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions - consumer loan Notes: creditworthiness standards and credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 9 to previous half a year). 1

43 Labour Market 1 April Wage growth in the manufacturing sector Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. 7 Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. 9 Mar. Nov. Jan. 1 Mar. Nov. Jan. 11 Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH Notes: annual growth rates. Average gross wage ex-bonus payments Average gross wage 11. Wage growth in the market service sector Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. 7 Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. 9 Mar. Nov. Jan. 1 Mar. Nov. Jan. 11 Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH. Notes: annual growth rates. Average gross wage ex-bonus payments Average gross wage -

44 Labour Market 1 April Wage growth in the private sector 1. Unit labour cost in the private sector Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH. Notes: annual growth rates. Average gross wage ex-bonus payments Average gross wage - -1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Source: HCSO. Notes: seasonally adjusted, annualised quarterly growth rates Activity and unemployment thousand persons thousand persons Jan. 199 Jan Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 number of employed economically active unemployed (right-hand scale) Source: HCSO. Notes: levels, seasonally adjusted.

45 International and Regional Environment 1 April year government benchmark yields in CEE countries 1. Budget deficit in the CEE countries Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Dec. Feb. 1 Aug. 1 1 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Maastricht reference value Hungary (1-month average) Hungary Poland Czech Republic Source: Eurostat. Source: Consensus Economics December 1). Notes: as a percentage of GDP. In the case of Poland and the Czech Republic privatisation revenues are not included. 17. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Maastricht reference value Hungary (1-month average) Source: Eurostat Notes: annual growth rate.

46 International and Regional Environment 1 April GDP growth rate in CEE Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Source: Eurostat. Notes: same period of previous year = 1; seasonally adjusted data. 19. External financing capacity in the CEE countries Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Source: Eurostat, MNB, CNB, NBP. Notes: seasonally adjusted, as a percentage of GDP.

47 International and Regional Environment 1 April Business climate indices in the EMU 111. The annual growth rate of the volume of imported goods and services 11,, 11,, 11, 17, 1, 1, 1, 97,, 1, 1,,, , -, 9, -1, 9, 7,,,, 77, -1, -, -, -, -, , Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 -, - Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 - IFO Source: IFO; European Committee. EABCI (right-hand scale) Eurozone United States Japan Notes: IFO: Business Climate Index of the German Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Average of year = 1); EABCI: Business Climate Index of the European Committee (deviations from the long-run average), seasonally adjusted. Notes: seasonally adjusted data. 11. GDP growth rate in the EMU, US and Japan, 1, 1, -, -1-1, - -, - -, - -, - -,, 1, 1, -, -1-1, - -, - -, - -, - -, Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 EMU USA Japan Source: EUROSTAT. Notes: seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates

48 Real Exchange Rates 1 April ULC based real effective exchange rate of the HUF Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Source: HCSO. Notes: average of year = CPI and PPI based real effective exchange rates of the HUF Jan. 199 Jan Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 CPI based PPI based Source: HCSO, MNB, ECB Notes: average of year = 1. 7

49 Monetary aggregates 1 April Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (year-on-year basis) Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 M1 M M 11. Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (annualized from quarterly rates) Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 M1 M M