Housing Market Report

Transcription

1 Housing Market Report No.303 January 2018 CONTENTS HOUSING SUPPLY 2 Housing starts 2-3 Housing completions 4 Regional analysis 5 Under construction 6 Housing supply tables 7-9 QUARTERLY STATISTICS Q1 Introduction & Overview Q1-Q2 Starts Q3-Q5 Completions Q6-Q8 Registrations Q9-Q12 Timber Frame Q13 Regional Directors update Q14 HBF SURVEY 10 Key findings 10 Annual comparisons 11 Monthly comparisons 12 House prices and sales HBF tables MARKET OUTLOOK % Monthly difference % balance of site visits We provide the most up-to-date data and analysis on the housing market, from the most authoritative sources. This publication, compiled and written by NHBC is essential reading if you re tracking market trends. -2.6% NHBC rolling three months private housing starts to December % NHBC rolling three months private housing completions to December ,100 NHBC private housing starts in December ,500 NHBC private housing completions in December 2017 NHBC HOUSING STARTS Housing starts decreased on both their year-to-date and rolling three months figures when compared to last year (Table 1.1). NHBC HOUSING COMPLETIONS Completions increased on both their year-to-date and rolling three months figures when compared to last year (Table 1.2). GOVERNMENT STATS ONS housing output increased by 9.9% in the year to November 2017 (Table 1.2). HBF SURVEY Housing Market Report exclusively presents results from the December 2017 HBF regional survey of home builders (Survey Responses = 147). MONTHLY % DIFFERENCE FOR HOUSING SUPPLY current previous difference -60% Monthly difference % balance of net reservations 2,926 2, % ONS OUTPUT ( m) 171, , % PLOTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION 48,800 54, % HOMES NEARING COMPLETION *see page 9 for explanation of balances. See Table 2.1 See Chart 1.7 Housing Market Report is an NHBC publication NHBC NHBC, NHBC House, Davy Avenue, Knowlhill, Milton Keynes MK5 8FP Phone: Fax: HMR subscriptions: or call and ask for 'HMR'. Housing Market Report is prepared using sources that are believed to be reliable. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. No reproduction without NHBC prior permission in writing. ISSN (Online)

2 HOUSING SUPPLY NHBC data shows that in the rolling twelve months to December 2017, private sector housing starts were down by 0.6%, with affordable sector starts up by 2.5%, resulting in a 0.2% increase overall, compared to December Over the same measurement period, private sector completions were up by 4.5%, affordable completions up by 2.3%, resulting in a 4.0% increase overall. CHART 1.1 NHBC STARTS (UK) Rolling 12 month volumes Source: NHBC Number of Starts 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Private Affordable CHART 1.2 NHBC STARTS (UK) Rolling three months Source: NHBC 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec , , % Private sector starts in rolling 12 months - December 2017 compared to December ,550 35, % Affordable sector starts in rolling 12 months - December 2017 compared to December , , % Combined sector starts in rolling 12 months - December 2017 compared to December 2016 Number of Starts Private Affordable 24,350 24, % 8,350 8, % 32,700 33, % Private sector starts in rolling three months - December 2017 compared to December 2016 Affordable sector starts in rolling three months - December 2017 compared to December 2016 Combined sector starts in rolling three months - December 2017 compared to December 2016 PAGE 2

3 HOUSING SUPPLY CHART 1.3 NHBC PLOT STARTS COMPARED TO SITE STARTS (UK) Monthly volumes Source: NHBC 1,200 Sites (LHS) Plots (RHS) 25,000 New sites started 1, Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 New plots started % 850 1, % 4,050 4, % Sites started this month compared to December 2016 Sites started in rolling three months - December 2017 compared to December 2016 Sites started in rolling 12 months - December 2017 compared to December 2016 CHART 1.4 NHBC PRIVATE STARTS (UK) BY BUILDER SIZE Rolling three months private starts; % year on year growth Source: NHBC 40 Top 10 builders Top builders Smaller builders All builders 30 % year on year growth Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 12,900 13, % Top 10 builder s starts year-on-year growth in rolling three months - December 2017 compared to December ,350 6, % Top builder s starts year-on-year growth in rolling three months - December 2017 compared to December ,800 5, % Smaller builder s starts year-on-year growth in rolling three months - December 2017 compared to December % % of private sector starts from top 50 builders in rolling three months to December 2017 PAGE 3

4 HOUSING SUPPLY CHART 1.5 NHBC COMPLETIONS (UK) Rolling 12 month volumes Source: NHBC Number of Completions 125, ,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Private Dec-15 Jun-16 Affordable Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec , , % 33,500 32, % 147, , % Private sector completions in rolling 12 months - December 2017 compared to December 2016 Affordable sector completions in rolling 12 months - December 2017 compared to December 2016 Combined sector completions in rolling 12 months - December 2017 compared to December 2016 CHART 1.6 NHBC PRIVATE COMPLETIONS (UK) BY BUILDER SIZE Rolling three months private completions; % year on year growth Source: NHBC 40 Top 10 builders Top builders Smaller builders All builders Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 % year on year growth Nov-17 Dec-17 17,550 17, % Top 10 builder s completions year-onyear growth in rolling three months - December 2017 compared to December ,600 6, % Top builder s completions year-onyear growth in rolling three months - December 2017 compared to December ,200 6, % Smaller builder s completions year-onyear growth in rolling three months - December 2017 compared to December % % of private sector completions from top 50 builders in rolling three months to December 2017 PAGE 4

5 HOUSING SUPPLY FIGURE 1 THREE MONTH STARTS Top 3 most active local authorities Tower Hamlets South Northamptonshire Uttlesford 11 Local authorities with no starts 71 Local authorities above required start rate of nine or more homes starting every three months FIGURE 2 THREE MONTH COMPLETIONS Top 3 most active local authorities Newham South Norfolk Vale of White Horse 7 Local authorities with no completions 98 Local authorities above required completion rate of nine or more homes completing every three months PAGE 5

6 HOUSING SUPPLY CHART 1.7 NHBC UNDER CONSTRUCTION (UK) Private and affordable Source: NHBC Plots under construction 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec , , % Total number of plots under construction compared to December , , % Total number of plots under construction compared to last month 171,100 Total number of plots under construction by the end of December 2017 CHART 1.8 BREAKDOWN OF PLOTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION By key inspection stage and type Source: NHBC Plots under construction 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 House Flat Pre handover First fix Roof Super structure DPC Foundations No progress in 12 months 48,800 Homes nearing completion in December ,100 Homes in the early stages of construction (up to DPC) in December % Number of plots nearing completion compared to December % Homes constructed up to DPC compared to December 2016 PAGE 6

7 HOUSING SUPPLY TABLES TABLE 1.1 PRIVATE HOUSEBUILDING INDICATORS DCLG NHBC Great Britain Actual England Actual United Kingdom Actual Number (000) Annual % change Number (000) Annual % change Number (000) Annual % change Q Q Q Q Q Q September October November December Last 3 months Year to date Sources: Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG); NHBC, Office for National Statistics, Scottish Government Notes: 1. NHBC private housing starts reflect the current sector status of the plot. 2. DCLG private housing starts reflect the sector status at the time the plot was started i.e. Does not make allowances for private stock being sold to RSLs. TABLE 1.2 HOUSING COMPLETIONS Great Britain Actual Number (000) Annual % DCLG ONS NHBC Number (000) England Actual Annual % Great Britain not seasonally adjusted Output ( m 2005) Annual % change United Kingdom Actual Number (000) Annual % change , , , , Q , Q , Q , Q , Q , Q , September 2, October 2, November 2, December Last 3 months Year to date Sources: Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG); NHBC, Office for National Statistics, Scottish Government Notes: 1. NHBC private housing completions reflect the current sector status of the plot. 2. DCLG private housing completions reflect the sector status at the time the plot was started i.e. Does not make allowances for private stock being sold to RSLs. PAGE 7

8 HOUSING SUPPLY TABLES TABLE 1.3 REGIONAL PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS - GOVERNMENT Scotland North East North West Yorkshire & Humber West Midlands East Midlands East of England Greater London South East South West England Wales Great Britain Number ,942 3,125 8,180 7,235 8,356 6,235 12,553 14,044 15,375 11,081 86,184 4, , ,489 3,583 9,103 6,618 6,855 6,731 10,490 11,222 13,893 10,783 79,278 4,138 93, ,700 4,827 10,594 8,521 9,082 8,355 13,161 13,040 17,864 12,840 98,284 4, , ,966 6,053 11,816 12,323 11,250 9,788 12,588 13,941 18,651 14, ,715 5, , ,607 5,816 12,720 10,371 11,722 10,895 14,846 18,686 20,855 14, ,225 5, , ,698 7,235 16,902 10,701 12,287 12,165 16,160 13,298 22,146 15, ,058 4, ,736 Annual % change Number 2016 Q2 3,348 1,932 3,992 2,798 3,311 3,011 4,008 3,684 5,939 4,300 32,975 1,056 37,379 Q3 3,016 2,245 4,959 3,095 3,189 3,830 4,453 2,346 5,597 4,342 34,056 1,477 38,549 Q4 2,648 1,606 3,947 2,447 2,702 2,538 3,960 2,872 5,493 3,116 28,681 1,604 32, Q1 2,575 2,204 4,843 4,521 3,291 3,778 4,852 3,602 6,023 3,958 37,072 1,165 40,812 Q2 3,972 1,897 5,153 3,760 3,349 3,611 4,359 3,988 5,895 3,919 35,931 1,344 41,247 Q3 2,164 4,514 3,465 3,706 3,158 4,648 3,196 5,790 4,118 34,759 1,200 Annual % change 2016 Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG), Welsh Assembly Government, Scottish Government PAGE 8

9 HOUSING SUPPLY TABLES TABLE 1.4 REGIONAL PRIVATE HOUSING COMPLETIONS - GOVERNMENT Scotland North East North West Yorkshire & Humber West Midlands East Midlands East of England Greater London South East South West England Wales Great Britain Number ,211 3,661 9,263 8,045 6,447 8,964 11,982 8,872 15,298 10,315 82,847 4,750 98, ,893 3,720 8,094 8,406 6,224 8,914 11,800 10,508 15,522 11,615 84,803 4,660 99, ,965 3,936 9,271 7,591 6,879 8,676 11,772 12,305 16,345 11,547 88,322 4, , ,407 3,759 8,409 8,116 7,593 8,470 11,744 11,454 15,174 11,944 86,663 4, , ,180 4,491 9,500 8,795 8,416 9,951 12,261 12,122 15,519 11,542 92,597 5, , ,917 5,765 11,705 9,101 9,771 11,254 13,962 16,499 18,691 13, ,668 5, ,215 Annual % change Number 2016 Q2 3,078 1,398 2,900 2,548 3,167 2,873 3,426 4,308 4,961 3,841 29,422 1,342 33,842 Q3 2,912 1,332 3,240 2,284 3,154 2,705 3,388 4,562 4,975 3,294 28,934 1,363 33,209 Q4 3,546 1,529 2,952 2,843 3,193 2,815 4,532 3,603 5,214 3,817 30,498 1,537 35, Q1 3,212 1,706 3,279 2,871 2,987 2,589 3,598 5,418 5,153 3,738 31,339 1,312 35,863 Q2 3,684 2,108 3,258 2,926 3,132 3,653 4,148 5,050 5,579 3,884 33,738 1,604 39,026 Q3 1,956 3,116 2,754 3,020 2,823 3,661 3,347 5,593 3,530 29,800 1,188 Annual % change 2016 Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG), Welsh Assembly Government, Scottish Government PAGE 9

10 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS Introduction NHBC Quarterly Statistics are derived almost exclusively from our registered builders, who construct around 80% of the new homes in the UK. As such, they represent a unique source of detailed, up-to-date information on new home construction and the house-building industry. A number of important changes have been implemented to ensure consistency of information within HMR. The most significant is a change from reporting home registration volumes to reporting volumes by start date; this affects the old Tables 1 and 2. Another change is to report completions at the point that the home is completed, not at the time that it is recorded on NHBC systems; affecting the old Table 5. We have also taken the opportunity to update all of the counties and regions, so that only current ones are used in the analysis. Note that the statistics in this section also include self-build, whereas the Housing Supply section excludes selfbuild properties. MAP 1 UK NEW STARTS AND COMPLETIONS Comparisons between the starts and completions volumes for each region over the last two twelve month periods are as follows: Scotland Starts +14% Completions -4% North West Starts +2% Completions +12% UK new home starts NHBC starts during Q were 3.3% lower than the same quarter last year (Table QS3) North East Starts +2% Completions +6% UK new home completions Q housing completions in the UK were 2.7% higher than in the same quarter last year (Table QS7) Northern Ireland Starts +4% Completions +12% Yorkshire & the Humber Starts +6% Completions +8% East Midlands Starts +5% Completions -2% Wales Starts +3% Completions +1% East of England Starts +2% Completions +3% West Midlands Starts +6% Completions +7% London Starts -9% Completions +1% South West Starts -8% Completions -2% South East Starts -4% Completions +10% PAGE Q1

11 MAP 2 NEW HOME PRICES For new homes registered in Q4 2017, England (+7%) and Wales (+6%) both achieved mean prices higher than the anticipated new home prices for properties that they registered in Q4 2016, whereas Scotland (-3%) prices were lower than anticipated. Northern Ireland (0%) house prices remained unchanged. The change in new home prices over the past twelve months in each UK region is as follows: GB new home prices The average anticipated price of private sector homes registered in Q increased by 7% to 327,000 compared to the same quarter last year (Table QS10) The median actual selling price of new private homes in Great Britain during Q was 285,000, 6% higher than a year ago (Table QS11) Scotland -3% North West +3% North East +13% Northern Ireland 0% Yorkshire & the Humber +2% East Midlands +4% Wales +6% East of England +5% West Midlands +5% London +20% South West +8% South East 0% PAGE Q2

12 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS Starts This table shows the number of starts notified by NHBC inspectors for each country by year, quarter and month. Figures from government sources are shown for comparison. NHBC figures show the number of starts up to the end of the quarter immediately preceding publication. TABLE QS1 UK STARTS, ALL SECTORS Year NHBC Starts (000 s) England Wales Scotland Government Starts Great Britain NI England Wales Scotland Great Britain N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Quarterly Breakdown 2015 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q N/A N/A 1.7 Q N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Monthly Breakdown 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Notes: 1. All figures relate to starts for both the private and affordable sectors. 2. NHBC starts figures are obtained as follows: when the first inspection of a plot is carried out it is recorded as a start. 3. Government figures are taken from the individual national statistics. NI PAGE Q3

13 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS TABLE QS2 ENGLISH REGIONS/COUNTIES, STARTS, ALL SECTORS % change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total rolling 12 month North East Durham , ,194 9% Tees Valley % Northumberland ,099 18% Tyne and Wear , ,146-12% Total 1,474 1,729 1,723 1,167 6,093 1,659 1,458 1,790 1,335 6,242 2% North West Cheshire , , ,092 1, ,093 13% Cumbria % Greater Manchester 1,031 1,062 1,318 1,078 4,489 1,114 1,581 1, ,746 6% Lancashire , ,875-9% Merseyside , ,275-8% Total 3,249 3,693 4,138 3,340 14,420 3,431 4,193 3,970 3,156 14,750 2% Yorkshire & the Humber East Riding & North Lincolnshire , ,784 0% North Yorkshire , ,088 13% South Yorkshire , ,053 1% West Yorkshire , , , ,773 8% Total 1,984 2,299 2,589 2,294 9,166 2,360 2,504 2,547 2,287 9,698 6% West Midlands Herefordshire % Shropshire , % Staffordshire ,647 1,017 1,136 1, ,182 15% Warwickshire , ,883 27% West Midlands , ,975 1,010 1, ,691-7% Worcestershire , ,808 4% Total 3,004 3,443 3,752 2,864 13,063 3,256 3,902 3,874 2,770 13,802 6% East Midlands Derbyshire , ,685 17% Leicestershire 1, , , ,681 5% Lincolnshire , ,859 20% Northamptonshire 907 1, , ,321-9% Nottinghamshire , ,716 1% Rutland % Total 3,346 3,568 3,311 2,613 12,838 3,300 3,489 3,532 3,142 13,463 5% East of England Bedfordshire , ,012 5% Cambridgeshire , ,011 24% Essex 1,212 1,549 1, ,687 1,128 1, ,043-14% Hertfordshire , ,731-12% Norfolk , ,886 5% Suffolk , ,732 17% Total 3,861 4,507 4,192 3,602 16,162 4,689 4,228 4,039 3,459 16,415 2% South West Bristol % Cornwall , ,523-4% Devon , ,923-12% Dorset ,054 35% Gloucestershire 828 1,029 1, , ,288-20% Somerset , ,461-8% Wiltshire , ,722-4% Total 3,406 4,331 4,560 3,340 15,637 3,803 4,032 3,773 2,750 14,358-8% London Inner London 4,501 4,409 2,444 2,829 14,183 2,720 4,059 1,765 1,909 10,453-26% Outer London 2,713 1,915 1,534 1,303 7,465 1,777 3,262 2,131 2,140 9,310 25% Total 7,214 6,324 3,978 4,132 21,648 4,497 7,321 3,896 4,049 19,763-9% South East Berkshire , ,435-11% Buckinghamshire , ,152 0% East Sussex % Hampshire 946 1,192 1,364 1,006 4,508 1,161 1,309 1,096 1,133 4,699 4% Isle of Wight % Kent 1,264 1,623 1,314 1,197 5,398 1,465 1, ,595-15% Oxfordshire ,178 1, ,506 10% Surrey , ,062 22% West Sussex , , ,642-17% Total 5,626 6,632 6,554 5,981 24,793 6,568 6,202 5,585 5,410 23,765-4% PAGE Q4

14 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS TABLE QS3 COUNTRY/REGIONS, STARTS, ALL SECTORS Wales % change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total rolling 12 month Mid and West Wales % North Wales % South Wales Central , ,603 43% South Wales East , ,253-11% South Wales West % Total 1,010 1,055 1,239 1,079 4,383 1,136 1,344 1, ,510 3% Scotland Central Scotland , ,304 15% Glasgow % Highlands and Islands % Lothian , ,970 24% Mid Scotland and Fife , ,111-6% North East Scotland , ,657 21% South Scotland ,085 23% West Scotland , ,316-7% Total 2,594 3,015 2,536 2,523 10,668 3,200 3,207 2,993 2,739 12,139 14% Northern Ireland Antrim % Armagh % Down , ,075-6% Fermanagh % Londonderry % Tyrone % Total , ,251 4% Isle of Man Total % Countries England 33,164 36,526 34,797 29, ,820 33,563 37,329 33,006 28, ,256-1% Wales 1,010 1,055 1,239 1,079 4,383 1,136 1,344 1, ,510 3% Scotland 2,594 3,015 2,536 2,523 10,668 3,200 3,207 2,993 2,739 12,139 14% Great Britain 36,768 40,596 38,572 32, ,871 37,899 41,880 37,162 31, ,905 0% Northern Ireland , ,251 4% United Kingdom 37,391 41,465 39,428 33, ,996 38,663 42,858 38,021 32, ,156 0% TABLE QS4 PERCENTAGE OF HOMES STARTED BY REGION Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total North East 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% North West 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% Yorkshire and the Humber 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% West Midlands 8% 8% 10% 8% 9% 8% 9% 10% 8% 9% East Midlands 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 10% 9% East of England 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 10% 11% 11% 11% South West 9% 10% 12% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 8% 9% London 19% 15% 10% 12% 14% 12% 17% 10% 12% 13% South East 15% 16% 17% 18% 16% 17% 14% 15% 17% 16% England 89% 88% 88% 87% 88% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% Wales 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Scotland 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% Northern Ireland 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% PAGE Q5

15 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS Completions This table shows the number of completions recorded by NHBC inspectors for each country by year, quarter and month. Figures from government sources are shown for comparison. NHBC figures show the number of completions up to the end of the quarter immediately preceding publication. TABLE QS5 UK COMPLETIONS, ALL SECTORS Year NHBC Starts (000 s) England Wales Scotland Government Starts Great Britain NI England Wales Scotland Great Britain Quarterly Breakdown 2015 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q N/A N/A 1.6 Q N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Monthly Breakdown 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Notes: 1. NHBC s figures refer to homes completed in the periods stated. 2. All figures relate to completions for both the private and affordable sectors. 3. Government figures are taken from the individual national statistics. 4. A house registered with NHBC is deemed completed when the NHBC Building Inspector, who carries out key stage inspections during construction, considers that the house has been satisfactorily completed in respect of NHBC s technical requirements. This is normally prior to (but generally signifies that the house is ready for) occupation. NI PAGE Q6

16 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS TABLE QS6 ENGLISH REGIONS/COUNTIES, COMPLETIONS, ALL SECTORS % change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total rolling 12 month North East Durham , ,096 17% Tees Valley % Northumberland % Tyne and Wear , ,243 1% Total 955 1,534 1,364 1,729 5,582 1,246 1,659 1,310 1,710 5,925 6% North West Cheshire 678 1, , , ,721 16% Cumbria % Greater Manchester ,080 1,056 4,053 1, ,356 4,335 7% Lancashire , ,983 11% Merseyside , ,328 21% Total 2,878 3,340 3,007 3,309 12,534 3,234 3,691 3,320 3,789 14,034 12% Yorkshire and the Humber East Riding & North Lincolnshire , ,714 9% North Yorkshire , ,980 17% South Yorkshire , ,033 17% West Yorkshire 593 1, , ,274-2% Total 1,525 2,437 2,172 2,213 8,347 2,104 2,542 1,941 2,414 9,001 8% West Midlands Herefordshire % Shropshire , ,156-2% Staffordshire , , ,675 12% Warwickshire , ,292 22% West Midlands 907 1, , , ,106 3,951 1% Worcestershire , ,787-1% Total 2,669 3,586 2,723 3,245 12,223 2,874 3,698 2,938 3,593 13,103 7% East Midlands Derbyshire , ,306 8% Leicestershire , ,379 3% Lincolnshire , ,456 0% Northamptonshire ,100 3, ,333-8% Nottinghamshire , ,759-7% Rutland % Total 2,719 3,377 2,951 3,513 12,560 3,053 3,215 2,807 3,269 12,344-2% East of England Bedfordshire , ,571 10% Cambridgeshire , ,602 3% Essex 851 1, ,016 3, , ,062 4,085 8% Hertfordshire , ,747-19% Norfolk , ,405 5% Suffolk , ,420 10% Total 3,036 3,880 3,212 4,243 14,371 3,403 4,100 3,413 3,914 14,830 3% South West Bristol % Cornwall , ,476-6% Devon ,017 3, ,073-4% Dorset , % Gloucestershire ,090 3, , ,463 3% Somerset , ,552-8% Wiltshire , ,476 10% Total 2,742 4,129 3,129 4,516 14,516 2,868 4,269 3,083 4,017 14,237-2% London Inner London 2,362 3,206 2,761 3,452 11,781 3,652 3,238 2,620 4,411 13,921 18% Outer London 1,823 2,636 2,793 2,492 9,744 1,857 2,300 2,028 1,719 7,904-19% Total 4,185 5,842 5,554 5,944 21,525 5,509 5,538 4,648 6,130 21,825 1% South East Berkshire , ,816 52% Buckinghamshire , ,770 10% East Sussex % Hampshire 839 1, ,197 4, , ,441 4,567 8% Isle of Wight % Kent 898 1,122 1,196 1,104 4, ,394 1,229 1,203 4,746 10% Oxfordshire , ,865 9% Surrey , ,700 7% West Sussex , ,655-1% Total 4,085 5,810 4,996 5,896 20,787 4,559 6,508 5,119 6,697 22,883 10% PAGE Q7

17 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS TABLE QS7 COUNTRY/REGIONS, COMPLETIONS, ALL SECTORS Wales % change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total rolling 12 month Mid and West Wales % North Wales % South Wales Central , ,165-13% South Wales East , ,609 19% South Wales West % Total 830 1,250 1,051 1,369 4, , ,394 4,550 1% Scotland Central Scotland , ,060-1% Glasgow ,023 10% Highlands and Islands % Lothian , ,566-6% Mid Scotland and Fife , ,124-7% North East Scotland , ,588 0% South Scotland % West Scotland , ,244-17% Total 2,465 3,308 2,723 3,112 11,608 2,479 3,104 2,452 2,017 11,133-4% Northern Ireland Antrim % Armagh % Down , ,172 12% Fermanagh % Londonderry % Tyrone % Total , ,276 12% Isle of Man Total % Countries England 24,794 33,935 29,108 34, ,445 28,850 35,220 28,579 35, ,182 5% Wales 830 1,250 1,051 1,369 4, , ,394 4,550 1% Scotland 2,465 3,308 2,723 3,112 11,608 2,479 3,104 2,452 3,098 11,133-4% Great Britain 28,089 38,493 32,882 39, ,553 32,249 39,693 31,898 40, ,865 4% Northern Ireland , ,276 12% United Kingdom 28,742 39,219 33,613 39, ,484 32,930 40,507 32,700 41, ,141 4% PAGE Q8

18 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS Registrations The following tables analyse the number of registrations received by NHBC. A builder is required to register a home with NHBC at least 21 days before building starts. Applications are typically made more than 21 days in advance, although, as an application is accompanied by a fee, prudent builders would not normally make it more than a few weeks before the anticipated start date. After registration, builders may change their minds and decide not to build on a particular plot. TABLE QS8 PROPORTION OF OUTPUT BY SIZE OF BUILDER IN GREAT BRITAIN Year 1-10 units units units units units Percentage of total registrations by companies annually registering units Total registrations (000's) Notes: 1. The size of a builder is calculated from the new homes registered in the year by the builder, or group of builders where builders have elected to be grouped in the NHBC scheme. 2. Figures are not recalculated for subsequent mergers or acquisitions. 3. The quarterly positions show a cumulative movement towards the year end position and are not directly comparable to previous annual figures. TABLE QS9 NUMBER OF BUILDERS BY SIZE CATEGORY IN GREAT BRITAIN Year 0 units 1-10 units units units units units units Total No. of builders on NHBC Register ,032 5, , ,320 5, , ,179 4, , ,595 4, , ,157 4, , ,044 4, , ,917 4, , ,188 4, , ,631 4, , ,612 4, , ,850 4, , ,197 4, , ,854 3, , ,458 3, , ,270 3, , ,255 2, , ,366 2, , ,626 2, , ,312 2, , ,812 2, , ,524 1, , ,994 1, ,876 Notes: 1. Total number of builders is at end of each year (see note 2). 2. The quarterly positions show a cumulative movement towards the year end position and are not directly comparable to previous annual figures. 3. In the above table, the number of builders on the register is based on each group being counted as one. However, at the end of 2017, the total number of individual builders on NHBC s UK register (including 404 in Northern Ireland) was 9,752 PAGE Q9

19 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS TABLE QS10 MEAN PRICE OF PRIVATE NEW HOMES REGISTERED ( 000 S) Region Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year North East North West Yorkshire and the Humber West Midlands East Midlands East of England South West London South East England Wales Scotland Great Britain Northern Ireland TABLE QS11 MEDIAN PRICES OF HOMES BY REGISTRATION DATE ( 000 S) Region Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year North East North West Yorkshire & the Humber West Midlands East Midlands Eastern South West London South East England Wales Scotland Average for Great Britain Northern Ireland CHART QS1.1 PROPOSED PRICE VS ACHIEVED PRICE BY DATE OF REGISTRATION Only homes where both a proposed and achieved price are known are included Source: NHBC Source: NHBC 115% England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Achieved price as % of proposed 110% 105% 100% 95% Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Date of registration PAGE Q10

20 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS These tables show the percentages of different types of home, registered by country, for the past eight quarters and also for the past five years, by region. Mean prices can be significantly increased as a result of exceptionally high-value homes being included. For each update, the previous figures are recalculated and this can result in some minor changes occurring. TABLE QS12 PERCENTAGE OF HOUSES BY TYPE AND PRICE AT REGISTRATION, BY COUNTRY PRIVATE AND AFFORDABLE SECTOR Percentage of house type in total registrations PRIVATE SECTOR ONLY Mean price of houses in 000 s Country Period Detached Houses Detached Bungalows Semi-detached Houses Terraced Houses Attached Bungalows Flats and Maisonettes Detached Houses Detached Bungalows Semi-detached Houses Terraced Houses Attached Bungalows Flats and Maisonettes England Eng Wales Eng Scotland Eng Great Britain Northern Ireland 2016 Q1 27% 1% 25% 16% 1% 31% Q2 30% 1% 25% 18% 1% 26% Q3 28% 1% 27% 17% 1% 26% Q4 29% 1% 27% 17% 1% 26% Year 29% 1% 26% 17% 1% 27% Q1 26% 1% 25% 16% 1% 31% Q2 28% 1% 25% 18% 1% 26% Q3 33% 1% 29% 16% 1% 20% Q4 30% 1% 26% 14% 1% 29% Year 29% 1% 26% 16% 1% 27% Q1 45% 1% 24% 18% 0% 12% none 163 Q2 39% 1% 19% 12% 1% 29% Q3 37% 2% 26% 16% 0% 19% none 108 Q4 42% 1% 23% 20% 0% 14% none 143 Year 41% 1% 24% 17% 0% 18% Q1 31% 1% 23% 23% 1% 21% none 171 Q2 38% 0% 27% 11% 1% 23% none 130 Q3 35% 1% 22% 19% 2% 21% Q4 40% 1% 26% 16% 1% 16% none Year 36% 1% 24% 17% 1% 21% Q1 40% 2% 15% 18% 0% 23% Q2 48% 2% 16% 17% 1% 16% Q3 52% 2% 15% 12% 1% 17% Q4 52% 1% 17% 14% 0% 16% Year 48% 2% 16% 16% 1% 18% Q1 39% 1% 16% 15% 0% 29% Q2 48% 2% 17% 18% 0% 15% Q3 31% 2% 15% 19% 2% 30% Q4 45% 1% 18% 13% 1% 22% Year 41% 2% 17% 16% 1% 24% Q1 29% 1% 24% 16% 1% 30% Q2 32% 1% 24% 18% 1% 25% Q3 30% 1% 27% 17% 1% 25% Q4 31% 1% 26% 17% 1% 25% Year 30% 1% 25% 17% 1% 26% Q1 27% 1% 25% 16% 1% 30% Q2 31% 1% 25% 18% 1% 25% Q3 33% 1% 28% 17% 1% 21% Q4 31% 1% 25% 14% 1% 28% Year 31% 1% 25% 16% 1% 26% Q1 36% 1% 48% 9% 0% 6% none 125 Q2 31% 2% 50% 7% 0% 9% none 97 Q3 23% 2% 46% 19% 0% 11% Q4 28% 3% 47% 11% 1% 9% Year 29% 2% 48% 12% 0% 9% Q1 30% 2% 49% 14% 1% 5% Q2 28% 2% 48% 13% 1% 8% Q3 33% 5% 49% 6% 1% 6% Q4 25% 1% 43% 18% 0% 13% Year 29% 2% 47% 13% 1% 8% PAGE Q11

21 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS TABLE QS13 PERCENTAGE OF HOUSES BY TYPE AND PRICE AT REGISTRATION, BY REGION PRIVATE AND AFFORDABLE SECTOR Percentage of house type in total starts PRIVATE SECTOR ONLY Mean price of houses in 000 s Region Period Detached Houses Detached Bungalows Semi-detached Houses Terraced Houses Attached Bungalows Flats and Maisonettes Detached Houses Detached Bungalows Semi-detached Houses Terraced Houses Attached Bungalows Flats and Maisonettes North East North West Yorkshire and the Humber West Midlands East Midlands East of England South West London South East % 0% 28% 21% 4% 9% % 1% 31% 19% 3% 8% % 0% 28% 18% 2% 4% % 1% 33% 13% 2% 5% % 0% 30% 14% 2% 5% % 1% 28% 23% 2% 16% % 0% 31% 23% 1% 12% % 0% 31% 19% 1% 13% % 0% 30% 16% 0% 14% % 0% 31% 17% 1% 12% % 1% 30% 23% 1% 12% % 1% 33% 25% 0% 12% % 1% 30% 22% 2% 12% % 1% 33% 22% 1% 7% % 0% 36% 17% 1% 9% % 1% 28% 27% 1% 20% % 1% 29% 20% 1% 18% % 1% 30% 16% 1% 19% % 1% 34% 15% 1% 14% % 1% 35% 15% 1% 12% % 1% 29% 22% 2% 10% % 1% 29% 18% 1% 9% % 1% 31% 17% 1% 10% % 1% 33% 17% 1% 7% % 1% 30% 20% 2% 6% % 1% 24% 24% 1% 28% % 2% 26% 20% 1% 23% % 1% 25% 20% 1% 27% % 2% 27% 19% 1% 21% % 2% 27% 17% 1% 25% % 1% 25% 27% 0% 24% % 1% 26% 26% 0% 19% % 1% 27% 24% 0% 20% % 1% 27% 25% 0% 19% % 1% 28% 21% 0% 19% % 0% 2% 7% 0% 90% % 0% 2% 5% 0% 91% % 0% 2% 5% 0% 92% % 0% 2% 6% 0% 91% % 0% 3% 5% 0% 91% % 1% 23% 25% 0% 31% % 1% 22% 24% 0% 31% % 1% 24% 22% 0% 28% % 0% 27% 19% 0% 29% % 0% 26% 18% 0% 29% Notes: 1. When applying to register a house with NHBC, a builder must estimate its selling price. This table represents mean selling prices at the time of application, modified by expectations. 2. The total registrations for some house types can be relatively small, so short-term movements should be treated with caution. PAGE Q12

22 NHBC QUARTERLY STATISTICS TABLE QS14 TIMBER FRAME MARKET SHARE AT REGISTRATION Period England Wales Scotland Great Britain Northern Ireland % 15% 71% 22% 13% % 18% 74% 22% 9% % 27% 69% 23% 11% % 19% 72% 22% 19% % 19% 68% 17% 22% % 21% 71% 15% 16% % 28% 62% 13% 15% % 25% 72% 14% 16% % 32% 75% 15% 16% % 21% 84% 15% 16% % 31% 84% 16% 23% Note: 1. The figures show New build (and Solo prior to October 2015) homes registered for NHBC s ten-year warranty. 2. Nationally NHBC provides warranties on approximately 80% of new homes built in the UK (including the Isle of Man). 3. The figures are sourced from information held on NHBC s Fusion system as at 31st December Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations. 5. NHBC asks the purchaser s solicitor to confirm the purchase price of a house. 6. The total registrations for some regions are relatively small and the differences in the percentage of timber frame units should not necessarily be considered significant. TABLE QS15 TIMBER FRAME MARKET SHARE AT REGISTRATION BY REGION Region Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year North East 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 3% 2% 2% North West 16% 12% 15% 8% 13% 10% 12% 17% 10% 13% Yorkshire & the Humber 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4% 2% West Midlands 11% 5% 8% 11% 9% 11% 12% 12% 9% 11% East Midlands 18% 11% 6% 7% 11% 14% 13% 18% 4% 12% East of England 5% 5% 3% 4% 4% 5% 2% 3% 6% 4% South West 22% 21% 18% 20% 20% 13% 19% 23% 14% 17% London 1% 5% 4% 2% 3% 2% 1% 4% 0% 1% South East 16% 13% 9% 7% 11% 18% 7% 9% 8% 11% England 11% 9% 8% 7% 9% 9% 8% 11% 7% 9% Wales 27% 17% 22% 17% 21% 30% 28% 36% 29% 31% Scotland 81% 89% 83% 82% 84% 75% 89% 82% 90% 84% Great Britain 18% 16% 13% 15% 15% 15% 17% 18% 13% 16% Northern Ireland 16% 12% 24% 8% 16% 20% 26% 21% 23% 23% Note: 1. The total registrations for some regions are relatively small and the differences in the percentage of timber frame units should not necessarily be regarded as significant. TABLE QS16 TIMBER FRAME MARKET SHARE AT REGISTRATION BY HOUSE TYPE IN GB House type Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Detached Houses 17% 16% 16% 18% 17% 17% 18% 15% 15% 16% Semi-Detached Houses 22% 15% 14% 15% 16% 19% 19% 19% 13% 17% Terraced Houses 23% 18% 15% 15% 18% 18% 20% 25% 19% 20% Detached Bungalows 31% 23% 22% 16% 23% 19% 22% 28% 25% 24% Attached Bungalows 18% 21% 21% 13% 18% 35% 18% 20% 29% 25% Flats and Maisonettes 12% 13% 7% 10% 11% 8% 10% 15% 8% 10% Note: 1. The total registrations for some house types are relatively small and the differences in the percentage of timber frame units should not necessarily be regarded as significant. PAGE Q13