Hotel Performance Across Key European Markets
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1 Hotel Performance Across Key European Markets Natalie Weisz Research & Analysis Manager 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
2 Natalie s Timeline Maths & Philosophy Commercial Analysis Research & Analysis
3 STR, collecting data since 1985
4 Our cornerstone
5 What we do Research Studies Whitepapers Event Impact Regional Performance Reviews Ad Hoc studies Analysis Compression Day of Week Event Impact Bespoke client reporting Performance Reports Supply Reports Forecast Reports Occ, ADR, RevPAR Supply/Demand Revenue P&L Existing supply Future supply Pipeline Characteristics Main KPIs Macro economic input Micro economic input 5 years/6 quarters/18 months
6 Agenda 1. Global Overview 2. Europe continues to fly 3. Central & Eastern Europe positivity all around 4. Russian recovery continues? 5. Sun shining in Euro Med 6. Strong and steady Germany 7. Brexit means.. 8. Amsterdam boost 9. Looking ahead
7 Global Overview
8 Global RevPAR % Change USD, Europe in EUR, Constant Currency, Full Year 2017 North America +3.2% Europe +5.6% Central America +3.8% Northern Africa +37.9% Middle East -5.6% Asia +3.5% South America +2.7% Southern Africa +4.6% Australia & Oceania +3.7%
9 Significant demand growth across the world Global Supply & Demand % Change, Full Year 2017 Supply Demand 7.0% 6.2% 4.9% 5.2% 4.0% 2.8% 3.3% 2.6% 3.2% 3.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8% 1.3% 1.6% North America & Caribbean Central America South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania
10 US Concerns Trumped Up 10% Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change 5% 0% (F) 2019 (F)
11 Intra-APAC travel continues to drive demand Asia Pacific Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, USD, CC, Full Year % 4% Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change 2% 0% -2%
12 Middle East supply growth has outpaced demand for the past 3 years USD, CC, Full Year % Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15%
13 Significant supply growth is still on the way across the Middle East Demand will need to grow significantly 105,616 more rooms by seats on A380 & 4 days Length of Stay 42 more A380s daily in the sky
14 Dubai has a pipeline of over 60k rooms Dubai supply and pipeline from AM:PM Existing Hotel Pipeline Hotel
15 Europe continues to fly
16 Demand outpacing supply for 5 consecutive years Europe Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, EUR, CC, Full Year , Q Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% Q1 2018
17 2017 occupancies now almost 10% above previous peak Full Year 2008, 2016 & % 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% January February March April May June July August September October November December
18 Europe strong across the board in 2017 Europe RevPAR % Change, LC, Full Year 8 10 Helsinki St. Petersburg Edinburgh Amsterdam Dublin 8 London Brussels Zurich Paris Madrid Barcelona Lisbon Rome 1 Copenhagen Berlin Prague Vienna Athens 4 Budapest Bucharest Belgrade Istanbul Warsaw Kiev Moscow
19 Dublin and Prague lead the way Top 5 growth markets compression nights 2007 vs 2017 # Compression Nights (>90% Occ) ADR Premium Market Dublin % 23% Prague % 19% Lisbon % 29% Budapest % 21% Athens % 14%
20 Terror impact drives down performance Bottom 5 growth markets compression nights 2007 vs 2017 # Compression Nights (>90% Occ) ADR Premium Market Brussels % 64% Rome % 15% Moscow % 25% Paris % 42% Istanbul % 12%
21 Hotels have shown increased resilience to terror attacks RevPAR indexed to month before terror, 12 months rolling, LC No Impact: London, Manchester, Barcelona, Berlin In Recovery: Paris (2+ years later) Recovered: Nice(1), Brussels (2), Istanbul (2) London Manchester Centre Barcelona Istanbul Brussels Paris Nice Berlin
22 Central & Eastern Europe positivity all around
23 Eastern Europe Euphoria Full Year 2017 RevPAR % Change Local currency 10 St Petersburg Gdansk/Gdynia/Sopot Tallinn Riga Vilnus 4 Moscow 8 17 Nizhny Novgorod Kazan 14 Yekaterinburg Novosibirsk 9 Prague 9 Bratislava 4 Ljubljana Belgrade Warsaw Krakow 19 Budapest 9 Sofia Bucharest Kiev 24 Tblisi 5 Voronezh Sochi Baku Astana 36 Almaty 10
24 Eastern Europe Euphoria Full Year 2017 RevPAR % Change Local currency 10 St Petersburg Gdansk/Gdynia/Sopot Tallinn Riga Vilnus 4 Moscow 8 17 Nizhny Novgorod Kazan 14 Yekaterinburg Novosibirsk 9 Prague 9 Bratislava 4 Ljubljana Belgrade Warsaw Krakow 19 Budapest 9 Sofia Bucharest Kiev 24 Tblisi 5 Voronezh Sochi Baku Astana 36 Almaty 10
25 Central & Eastern Europe Central Eastern Europe Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, Full Year , Q % Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Q1 2018
26 Central Eastern Europe strongest pipeline markets Top 10 Pipeline Cities Room count as at March 2018 Moscow Warsaw Tbilisi Budapest Gdansk/Gdynia/Sopot Saint Petersburg Sofia Bucharest Poznan Vilnius Thousands Pipeline
27 Sun shining in Euro Med
28 2017 was a fantastic year across the Mediterranen Full Year 2017, RevPAR % change - constant currency 0 Cote D Azur / Provence Barcelona 10 Lisbon 22 5 Marbella Algarve 17 Marrakech Balearic Islands Tunis 15 Croatian Coast 34 Italian Islands 21 Greek Islands Istanbul 65 3 Bodrum Tel Aviv 5 Canary Islands 81 Cairo 1 Eilat 119 Sharm El Sheikh
29 Spain Main KPIs EUR, Full Year % Occupancy +0.5% ADR +7.8% RevPAR +8.4%
30 A tale of two halves Daily Occupancy and ADR % change, April 2017 to March % Occupancy % ADR % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% April May June July August September October November December January February March
31 2018 Forecast North Africa and Mediterranean to see double digit RevPAR growth Barcelona with flat RevPAR at best Recovery in Egypt & Turkey New highs in EuroMed Uncertainty in Barcelona
32 Brexit means
33 Growth widespread across the UK in 2017 Full Year 2017, RevPAR & Change Inverness 9-6 Aberdeen Glasgow 5 Belfast Blackpool 8 12 Edinburgh 3 Newcastle Leeds 0 UK Total: +4.2% London: +4.4% Regional UK: +3.7% Liverpool 6 1 Birmingham 2 Manchester 5 Nottingham 1 Cambridge Cardiff 8 Bristol 4 6 Oxford 4 London 0 Southampton Plymouth 9
34 driven by Sterling weakness which is now used up London Exchange Rate Impact, January 2017 March 2018, GDP vs USD & EUR ADR ( ) ADR ($) ADR (EUR) 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30%
35 As a result occupancies have turned negative and ADR is following London, January 2017 March 2018, GBP 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Occupancy % Chg ADR % Chg
36 occupancy likely to be negative in the short to medium term London Supply and Demand % Change, 12 month moving average 6% 5% Actual Forecast 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Supply Demand
37 Strong and stable Germany
38 Events drive strong and stable performance Germany Rooms supply, demand & RevPAR % Change, EUR, Full Year , Q Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Q1 2018
39 Dortmund and Dusseldorf on top Germany Pipeline/Existing % Data from AM:PM, 09 May % Hamburg + 14% Hanover + 10% Berlin + 38% Dortmund + 28% Dusseldorf + 9% Dresden Cologne + 9% + 18% Frankfurt am Main Stuttgart + 12% + 20% Munich
40 High supply increase impacts markets differently German Markets RevPAR % Change, 12 month moving average 14% 12% Strong demand 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Longer to stabilize -8% Dusseldorf Munich Hamburg
41 Amsterdam boost
42 Amsterdam on the up in 2017 Full Year , Q1 2018, Local Currency 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% % 0% -2% -4% Q Occ % Chg ADR % Chg RevPAR % Chg 81%
43 Transient segment thrives in 2017, while 2018 sees boost in groups Amsterdam RevPAR by Segment % Change, LC, Full Year 2017, Q Transient RevPAR % change Group RevPAR % change 23.9% 12.6% 9.9% 1.1% 2017 Q1 2018
44 Amsterdam s rooms & ancillary revenues on the up in 2017 Revenues by Departments, EUR Revenue Mix RevPAR Growth 3% 25% 72% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Rooms F&B Other 17% 10% 3% Rooms F&B Other
45 ADR % Chg Airport and Surrounding driving the growth Full Year 2017, RevPAR % Chg, Local Currency 8% 7% Amsterdam Centre Amsterdam Surrounding 6% 5% 4% 3% Museums Quarter & Vondelpark Behind Amsterdam Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Ahead 2% 1% 0% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Occ % Chg
46 ADR % Chg Amsterdam on top in ADR growth, yet behind in occupancy Key Netherlands Cities - Full Year 2017, Occ & ADR % Chg, Local Currency 7% 6% 5% Amsterdam Utrecht The Hague 4% 3% Rotterdam Area 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Occ % Chg
47 Amsterdam leads in compression nights Compression Analysis 2016 vs 2017 # Compression Nights (>90% Occ) ADR Premium Market Amsterdam % 22% Utrecht % 18% Rotterdam % 16% The Hague % 15%
48 Amsterdam s occupancy to remain positive moving forward Amsterdam Supply and Demand % Change, 12 month moving average 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Actual Forecast Supply Demand
49 Looking Ahead
50 STR s forecast overview for full year 2018 Forecast February 2018 Edition Recovery Continues Paris Moscow Brussels Strong Growth Amsterdam Athens Zurich Supply Challenges London Warsaw Hamburg
51
52 Thank You! Natalie Weisz 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
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