Cement and Clinker Price Markers: Med Basin, Persian

Transcription

1 Cement and Clinker Price Markers: Med Basin, Persian Webinar presentation Gulf-Arabian Sea and East Africa Cement & Clinker prices 2Q2017: Price Assessment and Trade Price Update July 13, 2017 CW Group LLC T: F: Connecticut, USA

2 Presenters Tea Vukicevic Associate Analyst M: Responsible for providing qualitative and quantitative analysis for the CW Research s global price and volume assessments in the cement Degree in Economics from University of J.J.Strossmayer in Osijek, Croatia Ana Almeida Analyst aca@cwgrp.com M: Ana is an analyst for CW Research quantitative and qualitative analyses Focuses on primary and secondary research for key reports, including the cement and clinker price assessments Degree in Economics from University of Porto in Portugal 2

3 Agenda Introduction to CW Group Cement and Clinker Monthly Price Assessments Monthly cement trade price and volumes update Closing remarks GCTPR 2Q2017 highlights GCTPR overview and methodology Context snapshot: Worldwide cement demand Gray cement exports: LT pricing trend and outlook Ex-works pricing Closing remarks 3

4 About the CW Group Advisory Research Media STRATEGY AND M&A ADVISORY Strategic advisory Management consulting M&A advice Transaction support Due diligence BUSINESS DECISION SUPPORT Syndicated market / industry study reports Reference forecasts Data and chart-books Commodity price assessments MEDIA & MEETINGS Market reporting services Newsletters Online data access Publications Meetings Seasoned experts Business & technical Network & access Proprietary data CEMENT, BUILDING MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION STEEL, METALS & MINING CHEMICALS DRY BULK CARGO, PORTS AND INFRASTRUCTURE POWER, ENERGY AND SOLID FUELS 4

5 Cement and Clinker Monthly Price Assessments 5

6 Methodology of cement and clinker price assessments Primary research by engaging in interactions with traders in the three covered regions Who this report is for Cement traders Cement producers Cement users / buyers Bulk cargo shippers / charterers Aggregating price points obtained through primary research Establishing price markers for the three regions Benefits of subscribing to the report Understanding monthly prices of exported and imported cement and clinker Understand tactic and strategic demand drivers Keep up to date with the cement and clinker trade 6

7 Price assessment series overview Cement and Clinker Prices Monthly prices for ordinary Portland cement and ordinary grade clinker Delivery on a free-on-board basis (FOB) for prompt cargoes (30-60) Mediterranean Basin (FOB) Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea (FOB) East Africa (CFR) Petcoke prices Twice-monthly prices of imported petcoke delivered on a cost and freight (CFR) basis Compare pricing on an mmbtu basis to coal India East Coast (CFR) India West Coast (CFR) 7

8 Fx(USD/TRY) Cement and clinker price assessment: Mediterranean Basin 100 FOB ordinary Portland cement bulk: MedBasin (US$/ton) 1.8% Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul FOB ordinary grade clinker bulk: MedBasin (US$/ton) 13.4% Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul Apr-17 Mid 19-Apr-17 May-17 5-May-17 Mid May May-17 Jun-17 6-Jun-17Mid June-1722-Jun-17 Jul-17 8-Jul-17 Mid Jul-17 8

9 Fx(USD/PKR) Cement and clinker price assessment: Persian Gulf- Arabian Sea 100 FOB ordinary Portland cement bulk: Persian Gulf- Arabian Sea (US$/ton) 0.3% Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul FOB ordinary Portland clinker bulk: Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea (US$/ton) % 6 1.6% Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul Apr-17 Apr-17 Mid 19-Apr-17 May-17 5-May-17 Mid May May-17 Jun-17 6-Jun-17 Mid Mar-1722-Jun-17Apr-17 8-Jul-17 Mid Jul-17 9

10 Cement and clinker price assessment: Med Basin and Persian Gulf- Arabian Sea FOB ordinary Portland cement bulk: MedBasin (US$/ton) -4.2% Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 FOB ordinary grade clinker bulk: MedBasin (US$/ton) 4.4% Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 FOB ordinary Portland cement bulk: Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea (US$/ton) -10.4% Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 FOB ordinary Portland clinker bulk: Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea (US$/ton) -5.5% Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 10

11 For more information or to take part in CW s Price Assessments Participate in PAs Exchange market color and intelligence with the CW Research team (anonymously) The PAs are the result of interactions with traders and cement manufacturers Purchase Subscriptions Annual electronic subscription for individual, site license and corporate license The product is available on a stand-alone basis or as an add-on option to CW Research s Global Cement Trade Price Report Contact us Contact the CW team at sales@cwgrp.com or Contact Ana Almeida at aca@cwgrp.com if interested in participating in PA calls 11

12 GCTPR: 2Q2017 update highlights 12

13 Global Cement Trade Price Report (GCTPR) MAIN CONTENT Quarterly reports (annual subscription) Qualitative analysis on volumes and prices and trends in or global markets Benchmark report that allows unique insights on: Gray cement, white cement, clinker and granulated slag prices (US$/ton) Import and export prices Regional price indices Monthly trade volumes (tonnages) Ex-works and retail level pricing Market information for key markets around the world 70+ countries covered for trading data Monthly prices provided at global, regional and country level 9 Months of historical information + next quarter forecast For a complete listing of focus countries as well as more details visit: 13

14 GCTPR: Country coverage Trade, ex-works, retail Trade, ex-works Trade, retail Trade Ex-works, retail Ex-works Retail 14

15 Methodology high-light: forecast modeling and gap bridging Forecast prices estimated from the last available month to the ending month of the subsequent quarter (e.g. 4Q2016 report will contain forecast prices up to March 2017) Projections are forecasted using a country-by-country, product-byproduct and flow-by-flow time-series regression methodology R-square values are consistently above 0.95 Periodically revised statistical model Data-gap filling through model and last tick pricing Main Revisions Expanded county coverage to include set of additional markets in trade price analysis Expanded ex-works and retail market coverage Updated trade price forecast models incorporating quarterly seasonality variables 15

16 Context snapshot: Worldwide cement demand expected pick up on growth in U.S. and Spain, sector remains subdued in Saudi Arabia YTD cement demand growth (%) Highlights Pakistan Spain Argentina YTD (Apr-17) YTD (Mar-17) Brazil Despite the attempts to form a stable government, and create further infrastructure projects, prospects for the industry remain uncertain Mexico Canada China* China Demand improved in line with growth of infrastructure and residential spending Japan United States Colombia Turkey India* Brazil Saudi Arabia Spain Increase of direct foreign investment and industrial output will further boost the industry Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabian market continues its downturn, affected by low investment in construction and infrastructure U.S. Ongoing high demand for building materials in the United States -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Note*: Cement demand estimated based on production volumes 16

17 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Median FOB prices for gray cement seeing signs of recovery Global gray cement price index (USD/ ton) Median (USD/ton) High price (USD/ton) Low price (USD/ton)

18 Gray cement FOB prices trending down quarterly in 1Q2017, some recovery seen on a monthly basis Global FOB prices for gray cement (USD/ton) Global gray cement FOB (USD/ton) Global gray cement exports ( 000 tons) 9,000 Turkey Thailand Greece Taiwan Others 6,000 3,000 18

19 FOB rates for gray cement are expect to improve in most regions; largest increases Middle East and N. America & Caribbean Regional gray cement export prices (USD/ton) 120 Asia Pacific Japan Eastern Europe Mediterranean Basin North America & Caribbean Scandinavia & Baltics Western Europe Middle East Forecast Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 19

20 Ex-works prices declined in some major cement markets, increase seen in China, Brazil, Argentina, India 1Q2017 YoY -47.0% to -23.0% -23.0% to -16.4% -16.4% to -9.8% -9.8% to -3.1% -3.1% to 3.5% 3.5% to 10.1% 10.1% to 16.8% 16.8% to 30.0% 30.0% to 35.0%

21 Improved pricing environment in China. Currency devaluation leads to lower pricing in USD in Egypt Brazil (USD/ton) China (USD/ton) Egypt (USD/ton) Italy (USD/ton) Russia (USD/ton) U.S. (USD/ton)

22 Continued volatility in ex-works prices in India; Manufacturers announcing price increases in Eastern Europe Region Asia-Pacific-Japan Eastern Europe Mediterranean Basin Middle East North America and The Caribbean South America Outlook India: price volatility despite favorable construction trend Pakistan: strong demand to drive prices up Thailand: infrastructure investment to impact pricing Announced price increases in Poland, Russia and Ukraine Egypt: possible price stabilization Turkey: positive pricing environment Tunisia: prices under the pressure Saudi Arabia: competition weighing down on prices Oman: stable ex-works pricing U.S.: positive price developments Mexico: further increases expected in short term Argentina: improved market conditions to drive prices Brazil: negative price developments Western Europe France: improving price environment 22

23 GCTPR 2Q2017 update: Closing remarks Global average FOB prices for gray cement down 3% (by USD 2.0 per ton) YoY in 1Q2017 Quarterly volumes dropped ~18% YoY for the set of reporting countries with complete data for the quarter (accounting for +80% of global volume) Prices expected to improve, particularly in N. America and Middle East Clinker FOB rates at -7% YoY in 1Q2017 Volumes down ~7% QoQ for set of reporting countries with complete data for 1Q2017 (~80% of global volume) Global slag export prices up 18% QoQ in 1Q

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