IPD Ireland Quarterly Property Index Q Results

Transcription

1 IPD Ireland Quarterly Property Index 214 Results Sasha Thomas, Service Manager for Ireland, IPD 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 1

2 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland All Property: Components of Total Return Income return +2.1% Rental value growth +1.% 214 Qtr-on-Qtr Total return 7.2% Quarter end: 327 properties valued at 2.5 billion Capital growth +5.% Yield impact +6.% Cross product * +.1% Residual ** -1.9% 214 has the highest quarterly return since Q2 26. Capital Growth continues to accelerate and to take over as driver of Total Return. Capital Growth is still based on positive market sentiment (Yield Impact), but Rental Value Growth is returning. * Cross product: capital gain / loss in reinvested income ** Residual: impact of delays in income stream, mainly effect of over-renting 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 2

3 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland All Property: Drivers of Total Return Positive market sentiment continues to drive growth with Yield Impact at its strongest since Q Rental Value Growth continues positive, although at a lower rate than Q4 2. Income Return continues strong Dec-98 Jun- Dec-1 Jun-3 Dec-4 Jun-6 Dec-7 Jun-9 Dec- Jun-12 Dec- Income Return Rental Value Growth Yield Impact Total Return 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 3

4 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland All Property: Equivalent Yield Profile Eq. Yield % Equivalent Yields continued to come down in 214. The rate of yield compression at 7bps in 214 was the strongest seen in the history of the IPD Quarterly Property Index Equivalent Yield now stands at 7.6%. 3 Yield Expansion Yield Compression 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 4

5 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland All Property: Value Change % 9% 8% 7% 6% Although the proportion of assets seeing value increases stayed steady compared to last quarter, the proportion of assets seeing declines fell. 5% 4% 3% 74% of assets saw value increases, while only 7% continued to see declines. 2% % % The balance saw no change in values. % Decrease % No Change % Increase 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 5

6 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland Property by Sector: Components of Total Return Income Return has been overtaken by Capital Growth as the main components of Total Return for Retail and Office sectors The Office sector continues to lead the recovery, while Retail seems to be seeing a turnaround. -4 Retail Office Industrial All Property Income Return Capital Growth Total Return Industrial saw negligible Capital Growth this quarter. 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 6

7 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland Property by Sector: Components of Capital Growth Yield Impact is the main source of Capital Growth across the sectors Market sentiment is most positive over the Retail and Office sectors Retail Office Industrial All Property Rental Value Growth Yield Impact Residual Capital Growth. Only the Office sector is seeing positive Rental Value Growth. Yield Impact for the Industrial sector is negated by Rental Value declines. 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 7

8 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland Property by Sector: Components of Total Return The pace of rental declines for the Retail sector has been slowing, while positive market sentiment (Yield Impact) continues to grow Q2 Q4 14 Q2 Q4 14 Q2 Retail Office Industrial Q4 14 The Office sector remains the strongest, as it s supported by Rental Value Growth. The Industrial sector s fortunes keep changing from quarter to quarter. Income Return Rental Value Growth Yield Impact Total Return 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 8

9 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland Property by Sector: Components of Total Return Components of Return Retail Grafton Street Retail Henry/Mary Street Retail Other City Centre Retail Provincial Shopping Centres Retail Warehouses Office Central Dublin Office Rest of Dublin Office Provincial Industrial North Dublin Industrial South West Dublin Industrial South East Dublin Capital Growth Income Return Total Return Total Returns improved in most market segments, compared to Q4 2. Central Dublin offices continue to be the strongest segment, followed by Grafton Street retails. Henry St., Mary St. and Shopping Centres also perform ahead of the rest. Provincial offices are struggling and provincial retail continues to be one of the weakest segments. 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 9

10 Cap. Gr. ERV Gr. Yld Imp. IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland Property by Sector: Components of Capital Growth Retail Grafton Street Retail Henry/Mary Street Retail Other City Centre Retail Provincial Shopping Centres Retail Warehouses Office Central Dublin Office Rest of Dublin Office Provincial Industrial North Dublin Industrial South West Dublin Components of Capital Growth Industrial South East Dublin ERV Growth Yield Impact Residual Dublin rents continue to grow, although at a slower pace for Central Dublin Offices. Provincial Retail and Shopping Centre rents pull the Retail sector average down. The only segment with a negative Yield Impact is North Dublin Industrials. 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com

11 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland Property by Sector: Capital Growth Trends Yield Impact Retail Grafton Street Retail Henry/Mary Street Retail Other City Centre Retail Suburban Dublin Retail Provincial Office Central Dublin Office Rest of Dublin Office Provincial Industrial North Dublin Industrial South West Dublin Industrial South East Dublin All Property Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Rental Value Growth Retail Grafton Street Retail Henry/Mary Street Retail Other City Centre Retail Suburban Dublin Retail Provincial Office Central Dublin Office Rest of Dublin Office Provincial Industrial North Dublin Industrial South West Dublin Industrial South East Dublin All Property Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Yields continue to have a positive effect impact on capital growth. Overall this is the fourth consecutive quarter of positive Yield Impact. Rental Value Growth seems to be recovering, at least in Dublin. Overall there has been two consecutive quarters of Rental Value Growth. 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 11

12 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland Property by Sector and Age of Asset 12 8 Retail Office Industrial The age of assets has an effect mainly for Industrial assets All ages of Offices performed well this quarter For Retail assets the newest stock did best, but Pre-198 stock also performed well. - Income Return Capital Growth Total Return 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 12

13 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland Property by Sector and Age of Asset 12 8 Retail Office Industrial The largest rental declines took place in the oldest Industrial stock All ages of Offices performed well this quarter For Retail assets the newest stock was supported by market sentiment (Yield Impact), but Pre-198 stock performed best in terms of Rental Value Growth. Rental Value Growth Yield Impact Residual Capital Growth 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com

14 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland Property by Sector: Gross Rent Index Retail rents are back at the 2 levels and seem to be stabilising. Office rents are starting to trend upwards after a period of stability. Industrial rents are flat lining Retail Offices Industrial 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 14

15 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland All Property: Yield Gap The spread between initial and reversionary yields continued to contract The all property reversionary yield now stands at 6.4% compared to the initial yield at 7.9%. The spread has now narrowed to 149bps, more than halving from the peak of 324bps in Q Spread Reversionary Yield Initial Yield 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 15

16 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Ireland All Property: Market Activity Net Investment is positive again. Total Expenditure in the IPD Quarterly Property Index sample was 46m in 214. In 2, Total Expenditure totalled 324m, with most of this taking place in and Q Net Investment, m Total Receipts, m Total Expenditure, m 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 16

17 IPD Quarterly Property Index for 214 Conclusions Total Return was 7.2% in 214, continuing a recovery that started in Dec-11 and delivering the highest quarterly return since Q2 26. Capital Growth continues to accelerate and to take over as driver of Total Return. Capital Growth is still based on positive market sentiment (Yield Impact), which was the strongest seen in the IPD Quarterly Property Index. Rental Value Growth is returning, especially in Dublin, and is led by offices. Net Investment is positive again, with Total Expenditure in the IPD Quarterly Property Index sample reaching 46m in Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 17

18 Thank you... IPD UK & Ireland Intellectual Property Rights and use of IPD statistics as benchmarks Whether in the public domain or otherwise, IPD's statistics are the intellectual property of Investment Property Databank Limited. It is not permissible to use data drawn from this presentation as benchmarks. Investment Property Databank Limited (IPD) 2. Database Right, Investment Property Databank Limited (IPD) 2. All rights conferred by law of copyright and by virtue of international conventions are reserved by IPD 2 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 18