Outlook for Australian Property Markets Brisbane

Transcription

1 Outlook for Australian Property Markets Brisbane Update August 2009

2 Outlook for Australian Property Markets Brisbane Residential Update August 2009

3 Population growth continues to surge Population growth yearly rolling total -QLD Population growth 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Natural increase Interstate migration Source: ABS International migration Dec-82 Dec-84 Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Queensland s population growth rate continued to rise despite the acceleration of the global recession in 2H In the second half of the year the population rose by some 55,614 people, compared with 51,126 in 1H Once again, international migrants proved to be the main driver, rising by some 24,430 people. We had expected a slowdown in the level of migrants as the global recession intensified. Interstate migration, continues to slow to around 5,000-5,500 per quarter. This was the main driving factor in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but currently contributes the least to growth. Expectations remain that international migration will slow, impacting on overall growth, but this will remain strong.

4 Demand surges on low interest rates and incentives Finance commitments - QLD New dwellings (number) Established dwellings (number) 30,000 Price adjusted investor finance (value) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jun-99 Source: ABS, REIA Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 The introduction of an aggressive easing monetary policy as the world recession took hold, has helped rekindle demand for finance to buy housing since August last year. Finance commitments to purchase or to construct a new dwelling rose by 47% between October 2008 and June Similarly, finance to buy an existing dwelling has risen 54% since August last year. Although investors proved to be more cautious, as expected, the price adjusted value of commitments to investors has risen by 36% in the first half of Mortgage rates started to fall rapidly in Q4 2008, with a 275bps fall in 3 months. A further 125bps cut in 1H 2009 plus attractive incentives for first home buyers since October, have boosted the market. With the economy now not as weak as anticipated, rates are likely to rise over the next year. Although they will remain at a stimulatory level, this could well slow demand into 2010.

5 First home buyers surge to end soon First homes buyers surge - Qld 3 monthly moving totals Existing owners 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jun-99 Jun-01 Source: ABS & REIA Existing owners Jun-03 Jun-05 FHBs Jun-07 FHB s Jun-09 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 In January it was evident that the additional grant was boosting First Home Buyers (FHBs), which had risen by 58% in late We considered that the grant and low interest rates would continue to boost demand. It has, but by more than we had considered. FHBs are up 141% since August 2008 and 53% in 1H 2009 There are signs that the rapid growth of FHBs is nearing an end, with the numbers down 4% in the three months to May This is not a surprise and occurred after the last additional FHB grant in After rising 71% between April and December 2001, the number of finance commitments to FHBs fell by 31% in six months to June 2002, despite an extension in the time for the grant (albeit at a reduced amount). The stronger rise in FHBs this time may well have been boosted by international migration. However, we expect a fall in the number of FHBs in 2H 2009.

6 Supply has fallen, but population has increased Dwelling approvals Brisbane 3 monthly moving totals Number 4,500 4,000 Houses Other dwellings While the lift in demand has helped revive dwelling approvals for houses, approvals for other dwellings, while also higher, remain subdued. Some 12,650 dwellings were approved in 2008/9, the lowest since the post GST 2000/1 year. 3,500 3,000 2,500 Brisbane has increased population by an average of close to 44,000 people per annum since 2006/7. 2,000 1,500 1, Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 At the Census 2006 Brisbane had an average persons per dwelling of 2.6, suggesting the need for around 17,000 dwellings for population growth of 44,000. At only 12,650 dwellings approved the under supply is clearly evident, even before demolitions are taken into account. Source: ABS

7 Affordability improves significantly, but is only at 2003 levels, despite 50 year low mortgage rates QLD Home loan affordability - % income needed to pay mortgage 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Mar-97 Source: REIA Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 The rapid fall in interest rates has helped affordability as repayments fell. However, such was the extent of the decline in affordability since the early 2000s, as prices and interest rates rose, that despite the record fall in interest rates, affordability only fell back to mid 2000 levels. Queensland was one of the few States in the June quarter where affordability continued to improve, albeit marginally. As at June 2009 some 29.8% of an average family income was required to pay an average mortgage. As interest rates start to rise affordability is likely to start to diminish over the next year, unless prices fall or wages soar. Neither appear likely in the current environment.

8 Prices fell from Q2 2008, but showing signs of lifting in Q Brisbane median house & other dwelling prices Median price $000s Inflation adjusted $000s $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Mar-81 Mar-83 Mar-85 House other dwelling Inflation adjusted house inflation adjusted OD Raw data: REIA and ABS Mar-87 Mar-89 Mar-91 Mar-93 Mar-95 Mar-97 Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Despite the fall in interest rates and rise in affordability, fears around the recession and its effects on employment led to a fall in Brisbane prices in Q and Q Median houses prices were some 3% lower for houses and 1% lower for other dwellings in the six months to Q However, in Q2 the pick up in demand, low interest rates and shortage of supply in some areas, led to price increases. Although REIQ data has yet to be released ABS data showed house prices rising by 2.5% in Q2. RISmark data suggested house prices had increased 1.2% and unit 5% in the quarter. With demand being largely driven by FHBs and low interest rates, the sustainability of price growth is questionable, even with low supply. As rates rise and FHBs diminish, lower activity could well place pressure on values into 2010.

9 Vacancy up but still low, rents rising Rental and vacancy - Brisbane Rental per week $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Mar-89 Mar-91 Mar-93 Mar-95 Mar-97 Rental (lhs) Vacancy (rhs) Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Vacancy rate (%) Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar Rental growth has been relatively steady in the nine months to Q1 2009, lifting by around 3% per quarter. This is higher than expected given falling interest rates and additional FHB grants challenging tenant security. It was also surprising in Q that vacancy rose given the decline in approvals and continued population growth. Vacancy was assessed at 2.6% in Brisbane at Q1 2009, up from 1.7% in Q Possible explanations are the number of FHBs leaving to owner occupation and affordability issues with strong rental growth in recent years encouraging larger household sizes. As at Q1 2009, almost 26% of family income was needed to pay rent. Anecdotal evidence suggests that rents have stabilised if not fallen in Q2 and Q We do not expect rents to increase significantly for at least a year. Source: REIA

10 Yields rise as expected and are likely to rise further Gross residential yields against mortgage rate Brisbane Yield 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% Sep-88 Sep-90 Sep-92 Sep-94 Sep-96 Gross yield (lhs) Mortgage rate (rhs) Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Mortgage rate Sep-06 Sep % 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Investment yields continued to rise into 2009, as expected. However, at 5.1% gross yield for a 2 bedroom other dwelling in Q1, the lift was quicker than expected. Higher prices in Q2 and potential rental falls over the same quarter should have pushed yields back down. However, we continue to expect yields in the low 5% into The return of investors has, so far, been cautious. Although the economic environment is improving, the low yields and instability of prices into late 2009 may well keep investors on the side lines until greater clarity around the sustainability of the economic recovery and property market is evident. Source: REIA & RBA

11 Outlook for Australian Property Markets Brisbane Office Update August 2009

12 Brisbane CBD office market grows 7.5% in 1H 2009, vacancy surges to over 10%, more to come. Supply, demand and vacancy in Brisbane CBD Square metres 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40, Net absorption Net supply Vacancy rate Forecast Vacancy rate Source: Historical data: PCA Office market report 7/ 2009 Forecasts: Westpac Property 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% As expected the completion of a high level of new stock, albeit largely pre-committed, in the midst of an economic slowdown has significantly impacted on vacancy. Most of our considerations from January have eventuated, with high supply, weak demand, but not as bad as the 1990s, and limited withdrawals. In the six months to July 2009 Brisbane CBD saw some 144,300m 2 of new space completed. This increased stock by 7.5% in the six months to June. Over the year to June 2009 office stock has lifted by almost 10%. A further 88,400m 2 is due in 2H 2009, but supply slows thereafter. One one one Eagle St is due after the forecast period. Net absorption held stronger than expected, but was still weak. At 3,100m 2 Brisbane CBD was the only major CBD to record positive net absorption in 1H We continue to expect weak net absorption until There is little change to our forecast vacancy of almost 15% by end 2010.

13 Brisbane near city, surprise loss of occupied stock has lifted vacancy higher than expected Supply, demand and vacancy - Near City Brisbane Square metres 200, , ,000 50, , Net absorption Net supply Vacancy rate Forecast Source: Historical data: PCA Office market report 7/2009 Forecasts: Westpac Property Vacancy rate 2H % 11.0% 6.0% 1.0% -4.0% Although supply remained high, it slowed as expected in 1H However, a loss in occupied space of over 3% has lifted vacancy to 11.6% as at July Our forecast was for 11% vacancy by year end, but driven by supply, not a loss in occupancy. A further 39,500m 2 is due for completion in 2H 2009, and a further 74,930m 2 in While a high level of pre-commitment is evident, a weak leasing market should ensure vacancy continues to rise. Our January forecast suggested a peak vacancy of just over 15%. The fall in occupied space in 1H 2009, plus supply has lifted our peak vacancy forecast to 18.8% by end 2010.

14 Brisbane CBD rents fell 16% in 1H 2009, peak to trough forecast now 50% Prime net effective rents Brisbane CBD $/m 2 pa $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Source: CB Richard Ellis historic data to July 2009 Forecast: Westpac Property Incentives Net face Net effective Incentives Dec % 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% In January we forecast peak to trough falls of around 40% for the prime CBD market. Our forecast incorporated limited (10%) falls in face rents and incentives of around 25%, lower than the 1990s due to lower expected prime vacancy. In 1H 2009 prime net face rents fell 10.4%, incentives rose to 16% and net effective rents fell 16%. Although our forecast for vacancy has remained unchanged, our forecast for rents has moved lower. The key change being a forecast 25% fall in net face rents. This would take net face rents to around $475/m 2, a long term growth rate of 1% over inflation since We have not changed our forecast for incentives and peak to trough forecast for net effective rents is now fall around 50% by end This suggests a further 16% fall in 2H 2009 and 12% in 2010.

15 Yields continue to ease, now highest since 1993 Prime and secondary yields against the 10 year bond rate Yield 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Prime Yields Secondary Yields 10 year bond rate Raw data: CB Richard Ellis PTY Ltd & RBA Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 In January we considered that while yields may not need to fall further, concerns over the economy and impact on values could push yields higher into early CBD yields eased by a further 50bps for prime office and 37bps for secondary in 1H Near city yields have eased by a further 50-75bps and are now above their 10-year average. With yields starting at 7.50%, they are at the highest level since the bottom of the market in 1993, when they were closer to 8% and the 10-year bond rate ranged between 6.5% and 7.7%. Although we do not consider prime vacancies to exceed the 1990s levels, overall vacancy is forecast to be higher. Investors concerns around income security in an over supplied market may push yields higher than expected over the next year.

16 Outlook for Australian Property Markets Brisbane Retail Update August 2009

17 Retail sales underpinned by cash handouts, but will weaken over 2H 2009 Retail sales change on same quarter in previous year - Queensland Change (%) 18.0% 13.0% 8.0% 3.0% -2.0% -7.0% Jun-90 Jun-92 Jun-94 Jun-96 Source: ABS Forecast: Access Economics Retail sales growth Inflation adjusted sales growth Jun-98 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Forecast Jun-08 Jun-10 Retail sales in Queensland have been strong over 1H 2009 in comparison to the same period last year, growing at above average rates. It is believed that the government cash handouts were significantly behind the improvement in retail sales. Retail sales growth is forecast by Access Economics to weaken through to 2H With the cash handouts ended and the economy remaining volatile, this comes as no surprise. While Westpac Property believes that retail sales will slow over 2H 2009, the recovery in China, the subsequent demand for resources and flow through to the Queensland economy may result in higher sales growth in 2009/10 than forecast by Access.

18 Food and clothing sales underpin improvement over 1H monthly retail spending growth by sector Queensland Change (%) 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% -4.0% -8.0% -12.0% Food Dept Stores Clothing & SG 1H H H 2009 Household goods Other Retailing Total When broken down by category, it is established that clothing and food sales growth primarily drove the improvement in overall retail sales in 1H While the growth in food retail is not surprising given it is a necessity, the large increase in clothing is. It is likely that the cash handout supported much of this increase. While growth was positive for department stores and other retailing, it has slowed over 1H Household goods sales remain weak, falling for the third consecutive six monthly period over 1H Source: ABS

19 Retail supply continues to slow, however mooted development may be of future concern Retail supply 2009 to Brisbane Square metres 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 Source: CB Richard Ellis Pty Ltd DA Approved Under Construction Complete CBD Regional Sub Regional Neighbourhood Bulky Goods According to CBRE, some 141,600m 2 of retail space was completed in the year to June Around 50% of this was a handful of bulky goods centres. Supply under construction continues to slow, with just 62,142m 2 under construction. This includes one regional centre, one bulky goods centre and a couple of neighbourhood centres. Possible future supply appears to have increased since our January publication, with 315,000m 2 having been DA approved. A further 473,600m 2 is awaiting DA approval. While the majority of this is unlikely to begin construction this year, it is a factor that needs to be watched, particularly if economic growth is stronger than expected in coming months.

20 Net effective rents decline over 1H 2009 despite strong retail sales Retail rental growth Brisbane Growth 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% Prime CBD Source: CB Richard Ellis Pty Ltd 1H H H 2009 Regional Sub Regional Neighbourhood Bulky Goods Net effective rents declined further than expected over 1H 2009, despite an improvement in retail sales. Rental growth fell by between 1.4% in regional centres and 9.7% in bulky goods centres over 1H The majority of this occurred in Q1, with falls easing over Q Retail centres are likely to have factored in expected retail sales slowdown early, decreasing rents to help maintain tenant security. Although retail sales growth is expected to remain slow, even with a stronger economy than originally considered, the extent of rental falls in 1H 2009 and slowdown in decline in Q2 suggests rents are likely to remain stable in 2H However, strong growth from 2010 is not expected.

21 Yields continue to ease over 1H 2009, further rises likely as retail sales weaken Retail shopping centre yields Brisbane Yield 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% Dec-07 Current (Jun 2009) 10-year average City Centre Regional Sub Regional Source: CB Richard Ellis Pty Ltd Neighbourhood Bulky Goods Bond As forecast, yields continued to ease in most centre types over 1H Regional centre yields have remained stable, while easing ranged by between 8bps in sub regional centres and 50bps in bulky goods centres. The amount of easing has slowed over 1H On a quarterly basis, the increases were similar. With the exception of bulky goods, most centre types remain below their 10-year average yield by 10bps to 47bps. With retail sales expected to slow over 2H 2009, further yield increases can not be ruled out. However any further increases should be minimal given that yields are close to their 10-year averages.

22 Outlook for Australian Property Markets Brisbane Industrial Update August 2009

23 Demand to remain weak over 2H 2009, however improvement from 1H 2010 expected GSP, industrial production and consumption - Queensland Forecasts for the indicators of industrial demand have not changed too significantly since our last publication. % change in year 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% Forecast The majority of weakness is expected to occur over 2009, before picking up in 1H Private consumption is forecast to grow below average levels through to the end of % 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% GSP Private consumption Industrial production Source: Access Economics While industrial production is forecast to grow at around average levels over the forecast period. We expect this is due to the recovery in demand for resources from China, which appears to be occurring a bit earlier than anticipated. With demand indicators expected to remain weak into 2010, demand is likely to remain subdued. Although industrial production is forecast to improve quickly, the benefit is likely to be felt first in the resource based towns before Brisbane industrial. However, an improvement in the overall economy would flow through.

24 Supply pipeline slows, with limited supply beyond 2H 2009 Industrial supply (+5,000m 2 ) 2009 to Brisbane Square metres 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 Gateway North Outer Sth Western Complete Under construction Mooted Yatala Other Brisbane s industrial supply pipeline is slowing considerably in comparison to the past 18 months. Over the past 12 months some 522,350m 2 was completed, with just 98,700m 2 completing in 1H As indicated in the graph opposite, the Western and Gateway precincts have had the highest amount of supply added. A further 123,760m 2 is currently under construction and due over 2H Projects on hold have decreased, suggesting many projects may have been shelved, for now. Around 115,252m2 is on hold. Although the supply pipeline is slowing, the high supply over 2007 and 2008 is likely to continue to affect the market into Source: CB Richard Ellis Pty Ltd

25 Rental falls accelerate over Q1 2009, but falls begin to ease over Q Industrial net effective rental growth Brisbane Rental growth 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% Gateway South Precinct 1H H H 2009 Q Gateway North precinct North Precinct Outer South Precinct Western Corridor precinct Yatala The majority of Brisbane s industrial market rents began their decline over 2H However, this decline accelerated in 1H 2009, with a number of rents recording double digit falls. Net effective rents fell by between 1.4% in Brisbane s west to 12.9% in the outer south precinct. The majority of the falls occurred in Q1 2009, with the falls easing over Q as indicated in the graph opposite. Westpac Property continues to consider that while supply has slowed, the high level of supply in recent years is impacting on vacancy. Rents are likely to decline further over 2H 2009 as demand remains sluggish and supply needs to be absorbed. Falls are likely to occur in those markets where supply continues to be added. However, overall the rate of decline should continue to ease. Source: CB Richard Ellis Pty Ltd

26 Most yields now sit above their 10-year average as easing continued into Q Industrial yields - Brisbane Yield 12.00% Dec-07 Current (Jun 2009) 10-year average 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% Warehouse A Warehouse B Distribution A Distribution B Unit Estates A Unit Estates B Bond As expected, industrial yields continued to ease over 1H 2009 at a slower pace. Yields have eased by between 14bps in unit estates to 80bps in secondary distribution. The easing of yields was evenly spread over Q1 and Q The majority of Brisbane s industrial yields now sit above their 10-year averages. Taking this into account and also that the current yield/bond margins are above average, the market looks fairly valued in a not as bad as expected economy. Since the peak in Q4 2007, yields have eased by 175bps on average. Further yield easing is unlikely to be warranted given the current yield levels. However further minimal increases, particularly in secondary properties can t be ruled out as economic uncertainty remains. Raw data: CB Richard Ellis PTY Ltd & RBA

27 Capital values continue to decline, now 23% below the peak of Q Industrial capital values Brisbane metropolitan average $/sqm $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 Jun-91 Jun-93 Jun-95 Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Capital values grew by 112% between Q and Q This equated to average annual growth of around 28%. Values started to decline in Q and have been falling since, with the majority of falls occurring since Q Values declined by around 10% on average over 1H Since their peak in Q4 2007, Brisbane industrial values have declined by around 23%. Considering the growth that occurred prior, such a fall appears a little on the low side. However given that yields have risen beyond their 10-year averages and rental declines are slowing, it is likely that the rate of capital values decline will ease into 2H 2009 and will begin to stabilise into Source: CB Richard Ellis

28 Land values stabilise over Q2 2009, a trend likely to continue Industrial land values - Brisbane Values $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Jun-91 Jun-93 Gateway South Gateway North North Yatala Western Corridor Jun-95 Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Industrial land values in Brisbane continued to decline over 1H Falls ranged by between 2.6% in Gateway South and 17% in Gateway North. Brisbane s North was the only precinct to remain stable. All declines in value over 1H 2009 occurred in Q1. Prices remained stable over Q Since the peak in Q2 2008, industrial land values have fallen by between 13% in Brisbane s North and 34% in Gateway North. Land values are likely to continue to stabilise into 2010 as supply completes and industrial rents begin to stabilise in Source: CB Richard Ellis Pty Ltd

29 Disclaimer Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts. Information current as at August This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac Banking Corporation (ABN ) ("Westpac") accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. If you wish to be removed from our mailing list please send an to westpacproperty@westpac.com.au Westpac Banking Corporation. CB Richard Ellis Ltd (CBRE) does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information in this publication, including any information sourced from CBRE, and CBRE accepts no, and disclaims all, liability for any loss or damage whether occasioned by reliance on such information or otherwise.