UBS 2005 Global Real Estate Conference - December 2005 Denis Hickey CEO - Development Division Stockland

Transcription

1 UBS 2005 Global Real Estate Conference - December 2005 Denis Hickey CEO - Development Division Stockland 1

2 Presentation Outline Topic What is the outlook for the housing sector in Australia and how your company adapts? Outline Who is Stockland Market Environment Market Performance Both Short and Long Term 2

3 Business Diversification Stockland Assets A$8.4 Billion Residential Development 26% 22% Office Buildings 1% 11% Retirement Living 4%* 39% 1% Industrial Property Funds Management Shopping Centres Hotels 3 * = under management, not included in the $8.4 billion

4 Financial Performance Strong History Of Profit Performance Net Profit After Tax 456* 517* A$ million * 0 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 * Net profit after income tax and before amortisation of goodwill on acquisition of ADP Trust, unrealised (loss)/gain on financial instruments and capital profits on investment properties 4

5 Financial Performance Constantly Outperformed The Sector 14% Growth in Earnings per security 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 SGP Growth REIT Sector average Source: Merrill Lynch 5

6 Market Environment What Is The Structure Of The Residential Market? Total population 20 million people 6

7 Market Environment What Is The Structure Of The Residential Market? Total population 20 million people Highly urbanised 7

8 Market Environment What Is The Structure Of The Residential Market? Total population 20 million people Highly urbanised Annual new dwellings FY05-156,000 (A$30.2 billion) 250,000 Annualised Building Approvals Original Series, Private Sector, Australia 12 monthly running total 200, , ,000 50, year average total approvals - 152,410 Total House Other Sep-90 Sep-91 Sep-92 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 8 Source: ABS, SGP

9 Market Environment What Is The Structure Of The Residential Market? Total population 20 million people Highly urbanised Annual new dwellings 156,000 ($30.2 billion) 250,000 Annualised Building Approvals Original Series, Private Sector, Australia 12 monthly running total 200, , ,000 50, year average total approvals - 152,410 Total House Other Sep-90 Sep-91 Sep-92 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Source: ABS, SGP Taxation drives private investment/ownership Owner occupier tax free Investment negative gearing and capital gains break 9

10 Market Environment What Is The Structure Of The Residential Market? Total population 20 million people Highly urbanised Annual new dwellings 156,000 ($30.2 billion) 250,000 Annualised Building Approvals Original Series, Private Sector, Australia 12 monthly running total 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Sep-90 Sep-91 Sep-92 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep year average total approvals - 152,410 Total House Other Source: ABS, SGP Taxation drives private investment/ownership Owner occupier tax free Investment negative gearing and capital gains break Market is very fragmented 10

11 Market Environment What Are The Drivers Of The Residential Market? Population growth Population Growth - Actual and Projected Selected Countries Average Annual Growth (%) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% f Source: UN Australia China Germany Italy Japan Switzerland United Kingdom United States 11

12 Market Environment What Are The Drivers Of The Residential Market? Population growth Average Annual Growth (%) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Australia China Affordability (employment and rates) Source: UN Population Growth - Actual and Projected Selected Countries f Germany Italy Japan Switzerland United Kingdom United States 12

13 Market Environment What Are The Drivers Of The Residential Market? Population growth Affordability (employment and rates) Domestic consumption Average Annual Growth (%) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Source: UN Population Growth - Actual and Projected Selected Countries Australia China f Germany Italy Japan Switzerland United Kingdom United States 13

14 Market Environment What Are The Drivers Of The Residential Market? Population growth Affordability (employment and rates) Domestic consumption Supply Average Annual Growth (%) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Source: UN Population Growth - Actual and Projected Selected Countries Australia China f Germany Italy Japan Switzerland United Kingdom United States 14

15 Market Performance What Has Happened With Prices? 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Australia, Per Cent of Income Jun-90 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Mortgage Jun-01 Equity Withdrawal Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (% of Income) 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% House Price Growth Weighted Avergage of 8 Capital Cities Source: RBA Net equity withdrawal Net equity injection Jun-90 Jun-91 Annualised Jun-92 House Price Growth Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun Annualised Growth Source: ABS 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Mortgage Equity Withdrawal & House Price Growth Australia House Price Growth Mortgage Equity -10.0% -6.0% -2.0% 2.0% 6.0% 10.0% Jun-90 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 (INVERSE SCALE) Source: RBA

16 Market Performance Residential market in Australia is robust, both in the short and long term 16

17 Market Environment Outlook For Short Term Price growth has stabilised Employment is strong Interest rates are stable Commitment to strong immigration 17

18 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 - Market Environment Historical Population Growth Australia Net Overseas Migration Natural Increase Persons

19 Market Performance Outlook For Long Term Strong immigration Supportive economic and political environment Supply / demand imbalance Region Years Supply of Zoned Residential Land Sydney Metropolitan 3.1 Melbourne Metropolitan 5.8 South East QLD 10.6 Perth Metropolitan

20 Market Performance So.. 1. Stockland is a major player in the Australian Property Industry 2. The drivers of the market are well known 3. Concluded that The residential market in Australia is robust both short and long term 20

21 Disclaimer Corporation/ Responsible Entity Stockland Corporation Limited ACN Stockland Trust Management Limited ACN th Floor 157 Liverpool Street SYDNEY NSW 2000 Disclaimer of Liability: While every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, Stockland does not warrant or represent that the information in this presentation is free from errors or omissions or is suitable for your intended use. Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, Stockland accepts no responsibility for any loss, damage, cost or expense (whether direct or indirect) incurred by you as a result of any error, omission or misrepresentation in information in this presentation. All information in this presentation is subject to change without notice. 21