A longer-term perspective on Dutch real estate return & risk
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1 A longer-term perspective on Dutch real estate return & risk Amsterdam, 5 June 213 Lorenzo Dorigo, associate director IPD BeNeLux 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved ipd.com 1
2 Netherlands return p/a Total return index results all sectors (SI) 18 Capital value growth Income return Total return Total Return % Annualised total returns : 18-years: 8,9 1-years: 6,1 5-years: 2,5 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 2
3 Netherlands total return p/a All property(si) Total return 2 15 Global index - local currency Netherlands Eurozone Total Return % Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 3
4 Netherlands returns in global perspective All property(si) Total return annualised average return (currency effect) 2 Avg return local currency Avg return 15 Total return (%) Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 4
5 Netherlands risk & return in global perspective All property(si) Total return annualised average return 2 Annualised total return (%) Other countries Netherlands Eurozone Risk (Stdev) 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 5
6 Capital value growth analysis: residential- NL Underlying parameters (SI) Income growth potential as % of rent passing Overrented Rent review potential Vacancy December 27 = Adjustment transfer tax Gross income Market rent Capital value Inflation Vacant value Source: Vacant value: CBS bestaande koopwoningen Quarterly index (94% of annual index) 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 6
7 Capital value growth analysis: retail- NL Underlying parameters (SI) Income growth potential as % of rent passing Average remaining lease duration months months months Overrented Rent review potential Vacancy December 27 = dec-7 mrt-8 jun-8 sep-8 dec-8 mrt-9 jun-9 sep-9 dec-9 mrt-1 jun-1 sep-1 dec-1 mrt-11 jun-11 sep-11 dec-11 mrt-12 jun-12 sep-12 dec-12 Gross income Market rent Capital value Inflation Quarterly index (81% of annual index) 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 7
8 Capital value growth analysis: offices - NL Underlying parameters (SI) Income growth potential as % of rent passing Average remaining lease duration months months months Overrented Rent review potential Vacancy December 27 = dec-7 mrt-8 jun-8 sep-8 dec-8 mrt-9 jun-9 sep-9 dec-9 mrt-1 jun-1 sep-1 dec-1 mrt-11 jun-11 sep-11 dec-11 mrt-12 jun-12 sep-12 dec-12 Gross income Market rent Capital value Inflation Quarterly index (84% of annual index) 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 8
9 Dutch Key Centers in European perspective - offices Total return (Standing Investments) 3 Brussels 2 Amsterdam Berlin Total Return % Annulised total return Frankfurt London Paris Paris Dutch cities German cities London Volatility (st. dev) 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 9
10 Total Return % Property versus other assets in the Netherlands Direct property versus other asset classes Property Equity Bonds *Bron: MSCI (NL); JP Morgan GBI (NL staatsobligaties 7-1 jaar) Annualised TR Property NL Equity NL 6 Bonds NL 4 Retail 2 Offices Industrial Residential Volatility (st. dev) 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 1
11 How to contact IPD around the world Global enquiries: Australia Belgium France Germany Hong Kong Japan Netherlands South Africa Spain Sweden UK & Ireland USA Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 11
12 W: E: T: +31 () Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 12
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