INVESTMENT MARKET ANALYSIS

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2 Rosemary Casey

3 INVESTMENT MARKET ANALYSIS INVESTMENT MARKET 2015 Rosemary Casey

4 TWM Set up in Three new Directors opened in Galway and moved to new offices on Dawson Street Owned by the 4 Directors 100% Irish! Experienced team of 8 now Focused on Investment and Advisory business Each instruction is dealt with by a Director with experienced backup.

5 Content Overview of the national investment market year to date Regional / Local Market 2016 Trends

6 Investment Market 9 years since the start of the property market crash and 3 years into recovery Portfolio and Loan sales allowed NAMA/Banks & Receivers to dispose of blocks of property quickly and efficiently Given the expiration of the CGT relief incentive on 31 December 2014, Q was a flurry of activity with 137 deals completed resulting in approximately 4.3bn of transactions for the entire year. It is unlikely that Q will represent the same high level of activity, and in turn result in another bumper year particularly as the year to date value investment spend equates to a substantially lower 2.3bn. The fact that the level of portfolio sales are reducing will impact upon the end of year figures, which are forecast to reach a total investment spend of over 3.0bn for the year.

7 Investment Market Year on Year Volume Turnover ( 000 s) No. of transactions Avg deal size ( 000 s) Q ,217, ,842 Q , ,793 YoY Total to Q3 2,954, , YoY Total to Q ,322, ,500 Source: TWM Research (Approximate Figures) Q stats were buoyed by large portfolio transactions including Redwood Portfolio ( 215m), Project Orange ( m) and The Acorn Portfolio ( 171.5m). The top 5 transactions accounted for 74.26% of the total turnover in Q as against 47.47% for the same period in In Q asset sales accounted for 39% of the total turnover, this is broadly in line with Q where the asset / portfolio split was 47% / 53% of the total figure. Running total for 2015 remains 21.4% below Market trends are reflective of the reducing volumes of portfolio sales over the past 12 months.

8 Investment Volumes Source: Investment Agents Statistics / TWM Analysis

9 Investment Market Profile of investors has changed and increase in activity into regions as the market moves through its cycle Up until this year most investors were Opportunity Funds e.g. Marathon (Eyre Square), Irish institutions and REITS. Towards the end of 2015 we have seen more foreign institutional investors appear in the market in 2015 Institutional Buyer on Exchange House & Golden Island Shopping Centre Foreign Institutional Investor Names like - F&C acquired Kilkenny Retail Park Union Investment (Grand Canal Square), Credit Suisse (One Grand Canal Plaza), Standard Life (Custom House Plaza), Invesco (Frascati Shopping Centre), and German fund, Realis (Beaux Lane House). Smaller funds/private investors/developers 250,000-10,000,000 investment demand competitive (Private Investor Suite 3 The Plaza Region 325,000 and Private Investor Dockgate Region 9m) Improved occupier demand is underpinning confidence in security of cash flow to private investors

10 Investment Volumes Profile of Buyers Source: Investment Agents Statistics / TWM Analysis

11 Investment Volumes Portfolio v s Asset Re-trade Assets / Portfolios Q to Q Volume of Re-trade Assets / 774,175,00 Portfolios 0 No of Re-trade Assets / Portfolios 8 Average Re-trade Deal Size 96,771,875 Re-trade Assets / Portfolios as % of Total 14.09% Source: Investment Agents Statistics / TWM Analysis

12 Investment Volumes Asset Sector Source: Investment Agents Statistics / TWM Analysis

13 Investment Volumes Yield Gap Average Yield Over years Government Bond 4.77 Average Yield Gap Sept 2015 Yield Gap NIY All Property NIY Retail NIY Office NIY Industrial Government Bond Yield November Source: IPD Ireland Quarterly Property Digest Dec 2014

14 Investment Volumes - Yields Sectors where yields are still at or above the long term average are: Retail Provincial South East Dublin Industrial Dublin Offices (excl. Central Dublin) Dublin City Centre Retail (excl. Grafton Street and Henry / Mary Street) Source: IPD Ireland Quarterly Property Digest Dec 2014

15 2015 Regional Market KILKENNY ATHLONE KILLARNEY WATERFORD CASTLEBAR GALWAY

16 Regional Investors Investors who have direct knowledge of regional locations are active

17 2016 Forecast Improving Occupier Demand Increased Confidence in Regional Assets Less prime smaller acquisitions still heavily cash funded but funding becoming a feature of the market again Opportunities Loan book asset sales coming through NAMA wrap up sales and receivership sales

18 Thank you